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Background: COVID-19 pandemic has presented extreme challenges to developing countries across the world. The aim of this paper was to provide estimates for current development COVID-19 pandemic in the Post-Soviet states and forecast potential best and worst scenarios for spread of this deadly infection. Methods: The data on COVID-19 cases extracted from official governmental sources until April 18, 2020. A modified SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) modelling was used to plot the pandemic outbreak in 10 Post-Soviet states and forecasting over the period of 10, 30 and 60 days. The optimal measures (best-scenario) and suboptimal measures (worst-scenarios) of potential spread of COVID-19 in these countries were estimated. Results: It was estimated that Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached their peaks, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, and Uzbekistan are expected to reach their peaks in the early May-2020), with comparatively low cases of COVID-19 in the best-case scenario. In contrast, Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine would likely see the outbreaks with the largest number of COVID-19 cases amongst the studied Post-Soviet States in the worst-scenario during the next 30 and 60 days. Conclusion: Governmental response was shown to be as an important determining factor responsible for the development of COVID-19 epidemic in Post-Soviet states. The current protection rates should be maintained to reduce active cases during upcoming 30 and 60 days. The estimated possible scenarios based on the proposed model can potentially be used by healthcare professionals from each studied Post-Soviet States as well as others to improve plans to contain the current and future epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the former Soviet republics of central Asia, ethnic Russians have exhibited higher adult mortality than native ethnic groups (e.g., Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Uzbek) in spite of the higher socioeconomic status of ethnic Russians. The mortality disadvantage of ethnic Russians at adult ages appears to have even increased since the breakup of the Soviet Union. The most common explanation for this "Russian mortality paradox," is that deaths are better reported among ethnic Russians. In this study, we use detailed mortality data from Kyrgyzstan between 1959 and 1999 to evaluate various explanations for the Russian mortality paradox: data artifacts, migration effects, and cultural effects. We find that the most plausible explanation is the cultural hypothesis because the personal behaviors that appear to generate a large part of the observed mortality differences (alcohol consumption, in particular) seem to be closely tied to cultural practices. We examine the implications of this finding for understanding the health crisis in post-Soviet states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In late 1991, with the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union, the five Central Asian republics became independent countries. The completely unexpected challenges of nation-building were superimposed on the transition from a centrally planned economy. Within the common bounds of resource-based economies and autocratic regimes, the five countries gradually became more differentiated as their governments introduced diverse national strategies for transition to a market-based economy. This article describes the different economic polices adopted by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan and analyzes the outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]