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Africa is particularly affected by climate change due to its exposure to climate hazards, high vulnerability, and low adaptive capacity. Yet, Africa is also a continent rich in Indigenous and Local Knowledge (ILK) that has a long history of informing responses to climatic variability and change. This paper explores the extent to which ILK has been used in climate change adaptation in Africa. It deploys a bibliometric analysis to describe the connections between ILK and climatic change adaptation in Africa, complemented by an analysis of ILK literature and case studies. We consider four key dimensions of ILK, 1) type, 2) contexts of application, 3) value for adaptation, and 4) outcomes and effects in responses to climate change in Africa. Examples drawn from 19 countries across Africa highlight ILK systems are closely connected with biocultural relationships associated with observed patterns of climate change and where adaptation can be more effective when informed by ILK. This body of knowledge is critical to the delivery of climate change adaptation in Africa. The paper suggests some measures through which ILK may be more widely leveraged, both for improved adaptation outcomes, as well as enhancing the biocultural heritage value of ILK systems across Africa. The study commends the remarkable value of ILK in Africa for climate change adaptation and its value for supplementing climate services, particularly in areas with limited access to modern climate and weather forecasts as well as the encouragement of Indigenous communities to develop senses of ownership and active contribution to the sustainability of the future interventions. • Role of Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Change Adaptation in Africa. • The study commends the remarkable value of ILK in Africa for climate change adaptation. • its value for supplementing climate services particularly in areas with limited access to modern climate. • the paper concludes outlining measures through which ILK may be more widely leveraged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Regional integration presents a significant opportunity for African power systems. • Paper describes planning tool for regional power sector integration in Africa. • Model evaluates values of integration under different climate change scenarios. Regional power pools present a significant and potentially defining opportunity for African power systems to develop domestic energy resources, improve system reliability, and contribute to overall economic development. Hydropower is expected to play a significant role in many regional power pools in Africa. Feasible power transmission highways from Grand Inga in Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Grand Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia to other regions on the continent create the possibility of a pan-African electricity grid. However, in the medium and long-term, global climate change is expected to cause major variations in Africa's hydrological resources and it is not known how these changes may impact the value of regional power sector integration. This paper presents a model developed to study the value of different levels of regional integration in sub-Saharan Africa and how this value may change in the face of climate change. This work builds on previous studies by incorporating the ability to trade between different regional pools, co-optimization of generation and transmission, the ability to share reserves, and detailed simulation of the major hydro basins in Africa. Numerical results of the analysis will be presented in a parallel paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• There are complexities of Indigeneity at different spatial scales. • Indigenous claims have become important for natural resource management. • Indigeneity has been increasing resource-related conflicts in many parts of Africa. • Climate change is intensifying human mobility and resource-related conflicts. There is considerable evidence in the literature of the nature of Indigeneity in Africa, yet few studies explore the complexity of definitions of the concept at different spatial scales. This paper builds on existing scholarship by problematizing 'Indigeneity' at both regional and national scales through a critical analysis and synthesis of contemporary literature across sub-Saharan Africa, in association with a specific case study from northern Ghana. In generating the review, the concomitant implications for natural resource management and associated conflicts are analyzed. The paper argues that the definitions and conceptualizations of Indigeneity are heterogeneous with numerous ambiguities and complexities at regional and national scales, which have contemporary implications for both acute and prolonged issues of natural resource allocation and management. Claims of Indigeneity in relation to climate change-driven migration and settlement processes are facilitating support for resource access and utilization, but also generating a myriad of problems linked to overlapping and disputed claims. The ambiguity of claims of Indigeneity by vulnerable individuals and groups also has latent implications. Political misunderstandings or conflicts over natural resources are becoming more widespread across Africa during a period of environmental change. Understanding the complexity of Indigeneity at both regional and national scales will provide important opportunities to inform effective policy for the sustainable and equitable distribution and management of resources in sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research paper proposes a novel multi-model approach, integrating the CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM framework, to assess the combined impacts of climate change and land use change on the potential of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems. By considering both climatic variables and land use patterns, this study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how these factors influence CPV performance in the context of a changing environment. The proposed methodology offers valuable insights into the future viability and sustainability of CPV technology, enabling informed decision-making for policymakers, energy planners, and investors in the Middle East and Africa. As a result, the ability of the hybrid evolutionary CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM to predict the potential of CPV energy output for assessing the impacts of climate change on it was investigated in Alice Springs, the Middle East, and Africa. The outcome showed that the hybrid model significantly outperformed the other machine learning approaches. The fitted model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on CPV generation in Alice Springs, Australia, as well as the Middle East's and Africa's comparable climatic conditions. According to the study, climate change had the greatest impact on solar CPV energy production in Alice Springs, where it decreased the most by 8.577% under moderate forcing scenarios (SSP245) during the boreal summer season; moderately in the Middle East, where it decreased the mode by 2.316% under mitigation scenarios (SSP126) during the boreal summer season; and extremely minimally in Africa, where it decreased the mode by 1.263% under the far future sequencing period (2051–2099). Climate change also increased solar CPV energy production significantly in the Middle East in the far future sequencing period (2051–2099), as well as in Alice Springs, Australia, and Africa in the near future sequencing period (2015–2050). The strongest forcing scenario (SSP585) increased by 7.644% during the boreal autumn season in Africa; moderately increased by 6.502% during the boreal spring season in the Middle East; and had the least beneficial effects in Alice Springs, Australia, with increases of 5.538% during the boreal winter season. On an annual basis, all three regions showed a similar trend. Climate change (CLC) and urban expansion (URE) were also investigated in the Middle East and Africa for their effects on changes in solar CPV energy output. URE had a greater impact in Africa than the Middle East under the effective scenario, with a URE value of 45.45% for Africa and 20.15% for the Middle East, whereas CLC had a greater impact in the Middle East than Africa, with a CLC value of 29.01% compared to 5.47% for Africa. CLC and CPV residual factors, on the other hand, have a greater impact in the Middle East than in Africa, with effects of 29.01% and 50.83%, respectively, compared to 5.47% and 49.09%. The potential difference that drives the remediation of specific pollutants lies in the application of advanced technologies and sustainable practices. By exploring innovative solutions, such as using renewable energy sources like concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems, we can effectively mitigate the impacts of climate change and land use changes on pollutant concentrations. These technologies have the potential to significantly reduce pollution levels and create a cleaner and healthier environment for future generations. Assessing the CPV potential in different regions like Alice Springs, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa allows us to identify areas with high solar energy resources that can be harnessed for efficient pollutant remediation. Implementing prompt climate mitigation and adaptation measures is crucial for achieving a net-zero energy transition in the Middle East and Africa by 2050. In this context, prioritizing solar energy as the primary source of renewable energy is imperative for successful low-carbon economic planning in these regions. • CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM outperforms other applicable models • By 2100, the CPV potential in Alice Springs could increase by 0.082–5.338% at 1.5 °C • By 2100, the Middle East's CPV potential could increase by 0.021–0.221% at 1.5 °C. • By 2100, Africa's CPV potential could increase by 0.133–7.644% at 1.5 °C. • Climate change has harmed Alice Springs and the Middle East more than Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Food- and water-borne diseases (FWBD) are among climate and environmental sensitive infectious diseases. Climate change can highly exacerbate FWBD through vulnerable water systems. Highlights • Food- and water-borne diseases (FWBD) are a major cause of mortality and morbidity. • Africa counts 91 million people falling ill and 137,000 dying per year by FWBD. • Climate change could increase FWBD through bad water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). • Floods' vulnerability maps of drinking water systems are important for prevention. • Appropriate WASH interventions can significantly contribute in reducing FWBD under climate change. Abstract This paper provides a view of the major facts and figures related to infectious diseases with a focus on food-borne and water-borne diseases and their link with environmental factors and climate change. The global burden of food-borne diseases for 31 selected hazards was estimated by the World Health Organization at 33 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2010 with 40% of this burden concentrated among children under 5 years of age. The highest burden per population of food-borne diseases is found in Africa, followed by Southeast Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean sub-regions. Unsafe water used for the cleaning and processing of food is a key risk factors contributing to food-borne diseases. The role of quality and quantity of water to the general burden of infectious diseases deserves attention, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, as its effects go beyond the food chain. Water-related infectious diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, and climate change effects will exacerbate the challenges for the public health sector for both food-borne and water-borne diseases. Selected case studies from Africa and Asia show that (i) climate change extreme events, such as floods, may exacerbate the risks for infectious diseases spreading through water systems, and (ii) improvements related to drinking water, sanitation and hygiene could result in a significant reduction of intestinal parasitic infections among school-aged children. There is a need to better anticipate the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases and fostering multi-stakeholder engagement and multi-sectoral collaborations for integrated interventions at schools, community and household levels. The paper calls for giving priority to improving the environmental conditions affecting food-borne and water-borne infectious diseases under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract African countries are in a unique position to reap the socio-economic and environmental benefits of renewable resources as a means for meeting increasing energy demand in a sustainable way. A critical obstacle for the deployment of renewable energy technologies in Africa is the difficulty of attracting sufficient and affordable finance. This paper compares the impact of financial conditions on the cost of electricity generation across six renewable and three fossil-based technologies in 46 African countries. The results show large cost variations and highlight the extent to which renewables are disadvantaged by current financial practices. The energy-economy-environment model TIAM-ECN is used to show how lowering financing costs results in a much higher deployment of renewables. For example, solar PV could account for 10–15% of total electricity generation by 2050, even without explicit climate policy, thanks to financial de-risking programmes. The results demonstrate that changes in financing schemes could outweigh the impact of technology learning. This paper also demonstrates that, once ambitious climate policies are in place, reducing financing costs for renewables could be an efficient way to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Financial de-risking is thus a key ingredient for unlocking the renewable energy potential in Africa. Highlights • We show how renewables are disadvantaged by today's financial practices in Africa. • We show how lower financing costs result in a higher deployment of renewables. • PV can account for 10–15% of electricity generation by 2050 without climate policy. • Changes in financing schemes could outweigh the impact of technology learning. • Financial de-risking is key for unlocking the renewable energy potential in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions in respect of climate change. As the African continent struggles to adapt to climate change, a variety of measures are being pursued to alleviate the resultant pressures on people, properties and their livelihoods in several African cities. Collectively, they show that climate change adaptation in Africa is not as hopeless as widely claimed, and that there are some promising prospects. The literature shows a deficiency on studies which examine the extent to which climate change adaptation is being pursued in African cities. This paper addresses this need, and outlines some of the most important climate threats (e.g. increasing temperatures, droughts, sea level rise, sea and river flooding) and synergic non-climate factors, as well as recent progress made in respect of implementing climate change adaptation in African cities. Rather than adopt a general description of trends, this research focuses on concrete case studies from six major cities across the central, western, and eastern regions of the African continent (Douala, Lagos City, Dar-es-Salaam, Accra, Addis Ababa and Mombasa). The vulnerability and adaptive capacity status of the studied cities are discussed. Difficulties and challenges encountered in implementing adaptation policies in these areas are also highlighted. Furthermore, some successful examples of climate change adaptation initiatives in the surveyed cities are provided. Finally, the paper outlines some of the policy measures which can be implemented towards strengthening the capacity of African cities to adapt to a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water erosion, a notorious major threat to food security and ecosystem sustainability, is strongly conditioned by spatial and temporal scale effects. This paper systematically reviews the scale issues in runoff and sediment delivery (SIRSD) as a research field by integrating the traditional review approach and bibliometric analysis. This review summarises SIRSD's roots and the scale effect on runoff and sediment delivery. Then, we provide quantitative insights into the SIRSD domain's development history, thematic structure, geographic distribution, international cooperation, and methodologies. Findings show that: i) SIRSD arises from the gap between the non-linearity of runoff and sediment delivery across scales and our ability to measure it. Point-based and short-term measurements cannot capture the non-linearities from the spatio-temporal heterogeneities and cross-scale interactions of factors or processes. ii) Previous literature provides evidence that the spatial scaling of specific runoff (r), soil erosion (SE), sediment yield (SSY), or sediment delivery ratio (SDR) with drainage area (A) or slope length (L) exhibits contrasting patterns due to distinct mechanisms. Infiltration-excess and saturation-excess processes account for inverse and positive r - A relations, respectively. Interrill-erosion and rill-erosion cause inverse and positive SE-L relations. Hillslope-erosion and channel/bank-erosion explain inverse and positive SSY-A relations. Downstream increasing deposition and additional sediment inputs drive inverse and positive SDR-A relations. These scaling relationships can be nonlinear or complex due to spatial heterogeneities in land use, vegetation, topography, climate, lithology, and soil characteristics. Hence, applying an empirical scaling equation developed from the region with distinct environmental contexts is not recommended. Furthermore, the existing scaling patterns or equations may require updating given global climate and land use change. iii) SIRSD is a complex and multidisciplinary issue investigated by scientists from 93 countries since 1928. International research has substantially facilitated the understanding of SIRSD; still, more collaboration should focus on less-developed countries with high soil and water loss risks and urgent conservation needs, such as those in Africa and South America under cropland expansion. iv) Scale mismatch and scale break have discredited large-scale erosion and sediment assessments. Incorporating gully and bank erosion into modelling, extending the scale range of the L factor, and expanding the sediment scaling scope from watershed to slope may make a difference. Therefore, more research with nested design incorporating multiple scales is necessary for cross-scale analysis and scalable modelling. Addressing global climate change requires improving real-time urban flood forecasting and integrating downscaled climate models with hydrology, erosion, and sediment transport models. • A bibliometric review of the global SIRSD research for the first time. • SIRSD is rooted in the gap between natural nonlinearity and our measuring ability. • Scaling of specific runoff, erosion, sediment yield, and SDR has diverse patterns. • Scale mismatch and scale break discredit large-scale modelling and assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Not including population changes lead to an average underestimation of the heat-health burden of 64 %. • Of the identified studies 45 % included changes in population size. • 23 % of studies included demographic change as changes in age structure. • Of the 15 studies using SSP-RCP scenarios 12 included implausible combinations. Anthropogenic climate change will have a detrimental impact on global health, including the direct impact of higher ambient temperatures. Existing projections of heat-related health outcomes in a changing climate often consider increasing ambient temperatures alone. Population growth and structure has been identified as a key source of uncertainty in future projections. Age acts as a modifier of heat risk, with heat-risk generally increasing in older age-groups. In many countries the population is ageing as lower birth rates and increasing life expectancy alter the population structure. Preparing for an older population, in particular in the context of a warmer climate should therefore be a priority in public health research and policy. We assess the level of inclusion of population growth and demographic changes in research projecting exposure to heat and heat-related health outcomes. To assess the level of inclusion of population changes in the literature, keyword searches of two databases were implemented, followed by reference and citation scans to identify any missed papers. Relevant papers, those including a projection of the heat health burden under climate change, were then checked for inclusion of population scenarios. Where sensitivity to population change was studied the impact of this on projections was extracted. Our analysis suggests that projecting the heat health burden is a growing area of research, however, some areas remain understudied including Africa and the Middle East and morbidity is rarely explored with most studies focusing on mortality. Of the studies pairing projections of population and climate, specifically SSPs and RCPs, many used pairing considered to be unfeasible. We find that not including any projected changes in population or demographics leads to underestimation of health burdens of on average 64 %. Inclusion of population changes increased the heat health burden across all but two studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food security is threatened in Southern Africa, because of unpredictable droughts and higher summer temperatures brought on by climate change and global warming. Durable and hardy plants that grow easily and quickly in such conditions must be adopted to ensure sustainable and reliable food supplies. The young cladodes (nopalitos) from the cactus pear plant, which adapts to hot and dry climates, is an underutilised alternative food source that can serve as a healthy vegetable. It thrives in many environments such as deserts, below sea level, high altitude regions and tropical regions with temperatures above 50°C. Nopalitos are a traditional staple vegetable and have been consumed in Mexico for over 9000 years. However, it is underutilised and unknown as an alternative vegetable in Africa. Research on the physiochemical and nutritional content has been conducted. However, the information on harvesting nopalitos from cultivars available in South Africa for optimal edible quality is not available. Good quality nopalitos are young, thin, bright green, soft, fresh and not too sour or slimy. This paper aims to identify the effect of and the interaction between size, cultivar and harvesting season to obtain optimal eating quality. Data were obtained for two cultivars (Morado and Fusicaulis) at 9 cm, 12 cm, 15 cm, 18 cm, 21 cm and 24 cm, which were harvested in spring (October) and autumn (March) over two years. The quality characteristics were translated into the measurable attributes of morphology (weight, width, diameter, volume and surface area), texture (firmness and compressibility), colour (L*, a*, b*, C*and h°), turgidity (moisture content, mucilage yield and viscosity) and gustatory (percentage titratable acidity, pH and total soluble solids). ANOVA and Principal Component Analyses were performed to determine significant differences and interactions between the length groups, two cultivars and two seasons. The results showed that the size, cultivar and season influenced the edible characteristics. Both cultivars were most tender at 15 cm and presented the best edible qualities in spring. Morado showed better colour, turgidity and gustatory qualities. Morado was thinner, a brighter green colour, less sour and less slimy compared to Fusicaulis nopalitos. • Nopalito quality is highly influenced by harvest size, cultivar and season. • At 15 cm, nopalitos from both Morado and Fusicaulis were the most tender. • Morado nopalitos was the preferred cultivar, but Fusicaulis also performed satisfactorily. • Spring harvest was preferable, but autumn harvest nopalitos were acceptable. • Morado was thinner, a brighter green colour, less sour and less slimy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ancient irrigation systems (AISs) have been providing a multitude of ecosystem services to rural farming and urban communities in Asia and Africa, especially in arid and semi-arid climatic areas with low rainfall. Many AISs, however have now been degraded. A systematic analysis of AISs on their typologies, causes of degradation, and their ecosystem services is lacking. The objective of this review was to synthesize the knowledge on AISs on their typologies, status and causes of degradation, ecosystem services and functions, and identify gaps in research in Asia and Africa. A critical review of peer-reviewed journal papers, conference and workshop proceedings, book chapters, grey literature, and country reports was conducted. Qualitative and quantitative information from journal papers were used to conceptualize the typologies and analyze the status and causes of degradation, and ecosystems services and functions provided by the AISs. Based on the review, we classified AISs into three groups by source of irrigation water: Rainwater harvesting system (RHS) with small reservoirs, ground water based system, and floodwater based system. The RHSs, which used to receive reliable rainfall and managed by well cohesive social organizations for their maintenance and functioning in past, have now been silting due to extreme rainfall pattern and breakdown of the cohesive organizations in recent decades. In ground water based systems, indiscriminate development of deep tube wells causing siltation of channels has been a major challenge. In floodwater irrigation systems, irregular rainfall in the highlands and the breakage of irrigation structures by destructive floods were the main causes of degradation. Lack of maintenance and increased soil erosion, inadequate skilled manpower, and declining support from the government for repair and maintenance were the main causes of degradation of all AISs. The main ecosystem service provided by all AISs is water for agriculture. In tank- and pond-based systems, fish farming is also practiced. Tank irrigation systems provide various types of provisioning, regulatory, cultural and supporting services, especially in India and Sri Lanka. Ground water based systems provide water for domestic purposes and various cultural services. Floodwater based systems provide water for power generation and wildlife habitat maintenance and help in flood control. The knowledge generated through the review provide evidence-based information, and help aware governments, private sectors and development agencies for improved policy planning and decision making, and prioritizing the restoration, rehabilitation, and management of various AISs. Community Managed Ancient Irrigation Systems in Asia and Africa: Typologies, Degradation and Ecosystem services. [Display omitted] • Ancient irrigation systems (AISs) in Asia and Africa provide a multitude of benefits to mankind but are at a threat of degradation. • A systematic review conducted to identify typologies, status and causes of degradation of, and ecosystems services provided by, AISs. • Three typologies (rainwater harvesting, groundwater, and surface water based) and four ecosystems services identified. • Cascade tanks in Sri Lanka and India provide irrigation water for farming communities and ecosystem services for local communities and societies. • Rehabilitation of AISs needs urgent attention by governments, private sector, and development partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of still-low-but-rising levels of motorization and economic growth, increasing social and spatial inequalities, and growing concerns about air pollution and climate change, the formulation and implementation of policies, practices and partnerships that can support an accelerated implementation of sustainable mobility policies is an urgent concern for rapidly developing cities. This paper seeks to contribute to reframing some of the knowledge and methodologies produced in and about cities of Sub-Saharan Africa, through a comprehensive assessment of mobility patterns and accessibility needs within a larger debate about mobility transitions and sustainable development. By deploying a mixed-methods approach that builds upon case-study focus groups and city-wide accessibility and mobility analysis in the city of Freetown, Sierra Leone's capital, the paper maps travel patterns and their links with structural factors such as urban form, poverty, informality and social identities at the macro, meso and micro levels. The paper also presents evidence from a variety of methods that illustrate the significance of accessibility-centred information and analysis for establishing policy priorities for improving urban mobility and accessibility in the local, African and global contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• English-only searches for African climate change science introduce language-bias. • Non-English literature is poorly represented on Web of Science and Scopus. • Google Scholar incorporates a non-English voice, important for global assessments. • Supporting non-English authors may improve the global uptake of their work. • English-language research translated into local languages may encourage local use. Disregarding research not published in English may pose a risk to finding solutions for urgent global concerns, such as biodiversity loss, or climate change. To assess the extent of this 'missing voice', we compared the representation of 22 languages in scientific publications on climate change in Africa, indexed by widely used databases. Between 87 % and 95 % of publications were in English, with a small, but noteworthy, number in languages of the former European colonisers of Africa. We then assessed undergraduate monographs, master's dissertations, doctoral theses, and peer-reviewed papers derived from the doctoral theses, that are about Lusophone Africa and written in Portuguese, and found this research largely not accessible in English on online databases. If the goal of researchers, practitioners and policy makers is to obtain climate change information on, or present solutions for, individual developing countries, cultures, or localised issues, then searching in English may exclude local, context specific knowledge. This may prevent global assessments from being truly global, or locally down-scalable, by biasing science towards a single world view that marginalises key local stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate change is disproportionately impacting Africa, yet a research gap remains to cope with related societal challenges. • Empirical research among African practitioners shows that societal challenges are not adequately addressed in practice. • Research and innovation efforts are focused on traditional innovation policy dimensions. • Practitioners and experts are calling to strengthen the knowledge base by engaging local stakeholders and private sector actors. While it is increasingly important to strengthen the existing knowledge base in Africa to adequately respond to the rising risks and impacts of climate change on water resources, a significant research gap remains to identify areas and mechanisms to cope with these societal challenges. The aim of the paper is twofold: i) to provide subject-specific insights by analyzing the current knowledge base in Africa given water-related challenges due to climate change, and ii) to offer methodological insights into how a knowledge base can be studied comprehensively. This study overcomes the limitations of existing studies by combining two different perspectives, namely a thematic focus on six societal challenges and a conceptual focus on five social innovation dimensions. It does so by undertaking an innovative qualitative analysis that combines both top-down and bottom-up perspectives. Top-down, it explores the extent to which five social innovation dimensions are included and addressed in policy agendas and action plans. Bottom-up, it explores the perception of African experts and practitioners in how these knowledge gaps should be addressed. The research identifies a strong bias in the policy arena towards water security versus other water-related societal challenges. Our research suggests that rather than focusing on traditional policy instruments, water-related societal challenges should be addressed by joint attention to all five social innovation dimensions. There is a strong call from practitioners and experts towards strengthening the existing knowledge base by engaging local realities and local stakeholders and for the involvement of business and private sector actors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pressure that climate change risks impose on countries is a topic of interest to policymakers globally. The preparedness of climate change "hot spots" like Africa has been thought to be an important strategy in mitigating the effects of climate change hazards. Using panel quantile regression analysis, the paper empirically tests the effect of adaptation readiness on climate change vulnerability in 51 African countries over the period 1995 to 2018. The findings show that adaptation readiness has a significant negative effect on vulnerability to climate change in the region. The results also demonstrate that Central Africa is the most vulnerable sub-region to climate change with high exposure, high sensitivity, and low adaptive capacity. Whereas Southern and North Africa are the least vulnerable sub-regions to climate change in Africa. The differences in climate change vulnerability and adaptation readiness across Africa imply that blanket allocation of climate adaptation support and resources is unlikely to be effective. Therefore, a paradigm change in the allocation of climate adaptation support and resources is required. • The paper empirically tests the effect of adaptation readiness on climate change vulnerability in Africa. • The central African sub-region is the most vulnerable sub-regional block to climate change in Africa • Somalia is the most climate-vulnerable country in Africa with high exposure, low adaptive capacity, and high sensitivity. • Adaptation readiness has a significant negative effect on climate vulnerability in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Under the Out-of-Africa scenario, various routes have been supposed for the exit of the African Homo sapiens. The Mediterranean coast of North Africa, the Sahara, the Nile Valley, the Red Sea coast, and the Bab el Mandab could have been corridors leading out of Africa. Even though data are still too scanty, heterogeneous, and patchy to support one hypothesis against the others, scholars have tended to search for “the” route out of Africa, as if one passageway would rule out possible others. However, a single-dispersal model may not be correct as early modern humans may have found different ways to leave their native lands. If North Africa can contribute to an understanding of the adaptational dynamics of modern human peopling and their radiation towards different parts of Eurasia, other regions, such as the Horn of Africa, may be contemplated as well. This paper focuses on the events that took place in North Africa. In this region, anatomically modern humans were not always successful once they departed from Africa and moved towards the temperate, and dry, latitudes of the eastern Mediterranean basin in the Levant. Two distinct movements have been recognised within the Out-of-Africa 2 model, one occurring between c. 130 and 80 ka, the other taking place after 50 ka. The two phenomena were separated by an abrupt climatic transition that affected the south-western Mediterranean basin during the transition from MIS 5a to MIS 4, around 74 ka. As these two events exhibit very distinct features and are divided by a long time span, it seems reasonable to refer to the first event as “Out of Africa 2a” and to the second one as “Out of Africa 2b”. During the first migration out of Africa, modern humans seem to have failed in the competition for resources against Neanderthals, whereas they succeeded in their second migration. This paper examines some of the reasons of the failure of the Out-of-Africa-2a migration and, on the other hand, of the success of the Out-of-Africa-2b movement with particular attention to North Africa. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights • El Nino impacts on six socio-ecological systems are described. • Diverse experiences of 2015–16 El Nino event across these systems. • System resilience shaped by interaction of short and long term processes. • El Nino experiences provide window for analysing long term resilience. Abstract In a context of both long-term climatic changes and short-term climatic shocks, temporal dynamics profoundly influence ecosystems and societies. In low income contexts in the Tropics, where both exposure and vulnerability to climatic fluctuations is high, the frequency, duration, and trends in these fluctuations are important determinants of socio-ecological resilience. In this paper, the dynamics of six diverse socio-ecological systems (SES) across the Tropics – ranging from agricultural and horticultural systems in Africa and Oceania to managed forests in South East Asia and coastal systems in South America – are examined in relation to the 2015–16 El Niño, and the longer context of climatic variability in which this short-term 'event' occurred. In each case, details of the socio-ecological characteristics of the systems and the climate phenomena experienced during the El Niño event are described and reflections on the observed impacts of, and responses to it are presented. Drawing on these cases, we argue that SES resilience (or lack of) is, in part, a product of both long-term historical trends, as well as short-term shocks within this history. Political and economic lock-ins and dependencies, and the memory and social learning that originates from past experience, all contribute to contemporary system resilience. We propose that the experiences of climate shocks can provide a window of insight into future ecosystem responses and, when combined with historical perspectives and learning from multiple contexts and cases, can be an important foundation for efforts to build appropriate long-term resilience strategies to mediate impacts of changing and uncertain climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper addresses the interactions between the AIDS epidemic and climate change in southern Africa, particularly as they impact on food security. An assessment was undertaken through a comprehensive literature review. Understanding the underlying causes of regional food insecurity inevitably means understanding the role of the AIDS epidemic and increasingly climate change amongst other stressors. AIDS cuts through household and community level capacity, as well as the capacity of key facilitators of the adaptation process including state extension services and civil society organisations. The main argument of the paper is that adaptation to climate change must explicitly factor in the existing and long-term effects of the epidemic. While calls for embracing adaptation abound, little is being done to assess and strengthen the organisational capacity of institutions, which should play leading roles in any attempt to help prepare for a changing climate. In particular the capacity of key agencies has been undermined by the AIDS epidemic. This reiterates the need for a multisectoral approach and building bridges between agriculture and health sectors to ensure longer term support to livelihoods where HIV and hunger coexist, often overlaid by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock production systems in Africa are experiencing rapid changes in structure and function due to increased demands for livestock products from a more prosperous and ever-increasing human population. Some of these changes could lead to increased emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper explores the magnitudes of changes in production systems as a function of increased population densities and climate change. This paper also quantifies the methane emissions from African cattle, goats and sheep from 2000 to 2030. The study integrates methodologies from different disciplines to derive spatially explicit distributions of methane emissions from domestic ruminants and their changes as livestock production systems evolve. A livestock systems classification framework was used to differentiate pastoral and crop–livestock systems using agro-ecological thresholds based on temperature and length of growing period (hyper-arid, arid, humid and temperate regions), the extent of irrigation and human population densities. Livestock numbers (tropical livestock units, TLU) were estimated from FAO data for each country and production system defined. Projections of livestock populations were derived from analysis of demand shifts in livestock products, and livestock systems changes estimated on the basis of potential climate change and population density change to 2030. For the estimation of diets for ruminants, Africa was split into regions (East, West, Southern, Central and North Africa, and The Horn of Africa) and diets for both the rainy and the dry seasons were estimated from literature reviews for each livestock species in each production system in each region. Feed intake, livestock production and the computation of methane emissions were obtained using a previously validated and widely used mechanistic model of digestion and metabolism in ruminants. Results suggest that (1) Africa produced around 7.8 million tonnes of methane/year in 2000. This figure is likely to increase to 11.1 million tonnes/year by 2030. (2) Methane emissions per tropical livestock unit (TLU, 250kg bodyweight) can vary from 21 to 40kg/(TLUyear), depending on the production system and the region. (3) The highest emissions per animal come, and will continue to come, from ruminants in mixed crop–livestock systems. (4) The regions producing the highest concentrations of methane, now and in the future, are in general terms, The Horn of Africa, West and East Africa. (5) The average emission factors obtained in this study (31.1kg/(methane(TLUyear))) are in close agreement with the emission factors used by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for African ruminants (32kg methane per animal per year). (6) The methodology employed in this study permits the disaggregation of methane emissions by country and production system, thus allows us to quantify changes in emissions as climate changes and production systems evolve. The results of the study are compared with those obtained in other studies around the world and its implications are discussed in relation to how systems are likely to evolve in Africa. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In the 2,500,000 km2 Lake Chad Basin in central Africa, the 2000 Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data have been used to supplement the existing topographic data. SRTM data produce much sharper images of the region''s topography and provide new insights into debates about the nature and extent of late Quaternary Lake Chad. This paper shows that the accuracy of SRTM30, the recently released 30 arc seconds topographic data from SRTM, largely surpasses that of previous global Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) available in the region. Using a GIS we identified from SRTM30 elevation data key features in the landscape topography providing further evidence for the existence of a Megalake Chad. The SRTM30 data corroborate the presence of two ancient shorelines associated with stillstands of the paleolake at the elevation of the Mayo Kebbi and Bahr el Ghazal spillovers. We found a general flattening of the topography in the region covered by Megalake Chad which is most likely the result of wave-cut action. The SRTM30 data show that the remains of the highest paleoshoreline have a constant elevation of 325±5 m amsl. At its maximum extent, Megalake Chad had an area of about 340 000 km2 (only 8% less than the present-day world''s largest lake, the Caspian Sea). The SRTM30 data also revealed ancient drainage networks in the Sahara that lead to Megalake Chad. We compiled available 14C dates to constrain Holocene Megalake Chad events. The results presented in this paper have significant consequences for improving our knowledge of regional paleohydrology and continental climate change. This study is also the first step for a GIS-based reconstruction of late Quaternary paleohydrology in tropical Africa. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• A comprehensive review of remote sensing applications in water resources monitoring and management in Africa is provided. • Evolution of remote sensing techniques, particularly in hydrological modeling is summarized. • Role of sensors, observations, and analytical models in monitoring Africa's water resources at different scales are highlighted. • In-situ hydrological monitoring networks and limited long-term rainfall and climate data remains a challenge in Africa. • The adoption of multi-source data integration, and big data analytics provides new opportunities to improve water resource management in Africa. This paper provides an overview of the progress made in remote sensing of water resources in Africa, focusing on various applications such as precipitation estimation, land surface temperature analysis, soil moisture assessment, surface water extent measurement, surface runoff and streamflow analysis, water quality evaluation, land cover/land use mapping, and groundwater analysis. Specifically, the study sheds light on the remarkable progress made in remote sensing applications, showcasing scientific advancements and highlighting the challenges encountered. Moreover, it identifies crucial knowledge gaps that need to be addressed in order to further advance this field. The review's key findings indicate that the availability of sensors and observations, along with analytical models, has contributed to monitoring Africa's water resources at various scales. The availability and accessibility of hydrological data for monitoring and assessing water resources in Africa have been partially improved through the adoption of satellite data and processing technologies. Additionally, the emergence of various international remote sensing initiatives, North-South research collaborations, and projects has contributed to the research progress. Prominent satellite data series such as Landsat, MODIS, and GRACE have played significant roles in African hydrological research. However, the limited and malfunctioning in-situ hydrological monitoring networks in Africa have affected the accurate calibration and validation of remotely sensed hydrological models. Insufficient long-term rainfall and climate data pose challenges to long-term earth observation research on African water systems. The lack of high-resolution spatial and temporal data hampered accurate monitoring of hydrological processes at smaller scales. Despite the widespread use of rainfall satellite products, validation attempts over Africa, particularly in western and southern regions, have been limited. Furthermore, the reliability of hydrological satellite datasets is affected by factors such as the number and coverage of surface stations, retrieval algorithms, data integration techniques, and cloud cover. Overall, this work demonstrates the importance of earth observation in understanding Africa's hydrology, previously hindered by the lack of in-situ data. Nevertheless, efforts are therefore needed to enhance the adoption and application of remote sensing, particularly in groundwater and surface water estimation at smaller scales. Future research should focus on multi-source data integration, assimilation, and big data analytics using cloud computing and machine learning to address complex hydrological research questions at various scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates to what extent and how micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in developing countries are adapting to climate risks. We use a questionnaire survey to collect data from 325 SMEs in the semi-arid regions of Kenya and Senegal and analyze this information to estimate the quality of current adaptation measures, distinguishing between sustainable and unsustainable adaptation . We then study the link between these current adaptation practices and adaptation planning for future climate change. We find that financial barriers are a key reason why firms resort to unsustainable adaptation, while general business support, access to information technology and adaptation assistance encourages sustainable adaptation responses. Engaging in adaptation today also increases the likelihood that a firm is preparing for future climate change. The finding lends support to the strategy of many development agencies who use adaptation to current climate variability as a way of building resilience to future climate change. There is a clear role for public policy in facilitating good adaptation. The ability of firms to respond to climate risks depends in no small measure on factors such as business environment that can be shaped through policy intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines drought characteristics as an evidence of climate change in two agro-climatic zones of Nigeria and farmers' climate change perceptions of impacts and adaptation strategies. The results show high spatial and temporal rainfall variability for the stations. Consequently, there are several anomalies in rainfall in recent years but much more in the locations around the Guinea savanna. The inter-station and seasonality statistics reveal less variable and wetter early growing seasons and late growing seasons in the Rainforest zone, and more variable and drier growing seasons in other stations. The probability ( p ) of dry spells exceeding 3, 5 and 10 consecutive days is very high with 0.62 ≤ p ≥ 0.8 in all the stations, though, the p -values for 10 day spells drop below 0.6 in Ibadan and Osogbo. The results further show that rainfall is much more reliable from the month of May until July with the coefficient of variance for rainy days <0.30, but less reliable in the months of March, August and October (CV-RD > 0.30), though CV-RD appears higher in the month of August for all the stations. It is apparent that farmers' perceptions of drought fundamentally mirror climatic patterns from historical weather data. The study concludes that the adaptation facilities and equipment, hybrids of crops and animals are to be provided to farmers, at a subsidized price by the government, for them to cope with the current condition of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an ex-ante assessment of the impacts of climate and price variability on household income and food security in Ethiopia and Ghana. The study applies an agent-based modelling approach to highlight the role of coping and adaptation strategies under climate and price variability. Our simulation results show that climate and price variability adversely affects income and food security of households in both countries. Self-coping mechanisms are found to be important but insufficient to mitigate the adverse effects of variability, implying the need for policy interventions. Adaptation strategies composed of a portfolio of actions such as the provision of production credit and access to improved seeds are found to be effective in reducing the impacts of climate and price variability in Ethiopia. Similarly, policy interventions aimed at improving the provision of short-term production credit along with the existing irrigation facilities are important in Ghana. Finally, this study highlights the importance of capturing the distributional aspects of adaptation options by highlighting heterogeneous effects of variability and adaptation options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adaptation now occupies central stage on the agenda of most environmental initiatives in Africa. Our current understanding on the state of adaptation is limited, however, both globally and in Africa in particular. This study examines the status of adaptation in the Sahel by reviewing the primary peer review literature that reports concrete climate change adaptation actions. Based on an analysis of 70 peer review papers that document 414 discrete adaptations, we create a snap shot of adaptations developed between 1975 and 2015, and also calculate the percentages of adaptation. The results show that from a country to country perspective, Kenya has the highest number of reported adaptation actions (75 or 18.1%). The percentages indicate that the adaptive capacity of the entire study area is generally low for all the countries being that the highest country-level percentage is recorded in Kenya and it is 18%. Regionally, West Africa has more adaptation actions (261 or 63%) when compared to other regions of the Sahel. Regional level percentages suggest a higher level of adaptation at the regional level being that the percentage falls within the high scale range. The most commonly used adaptation actions reported are income diversification and water harnessing respectively. When categorized, technically related adaptation actions dominate the adaptation charts. The decade 2008–2016 recorded the highest number of adaptations (65.2%). Adaptation actions are also reported to be triggered by climatic and non-climatic drivers which both record high frequencies but the climatic drivers (98%) of adaptation are slightly dominant relative to the non-climatic drivers (95%). These results should be viewed as proxies of climate change adaptation as much information may be found in grey literature and non-peer review national communications which are left out here because of their relative low standardization and acceptability due to the absence of peer review. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models and ongoing monitoring studies predict the remaining glaciers in Africa are predicted to disappear by the middle of the 21st Century. These will likely be the only glaciers present on the continent for some tens of thousands of years, until the next global ice age. This paper considers the implications of the shrinking cryosphere in Africa for the surrounding environment and local communities. Glacier retreat will give rise to significant and irreversible downstream effects on East African mountain landscapes in future decades, including impacts on water resources; slope stability and geohazards; ecosystems and ecosystem services; and human socioeconomic and cultural activities and heritage. This foresight study is the first to discuss future environmental impacts of deglacierization in East Africa, and this is framed around understanding the interconnections that exist between physical and human landscape elements in mountainous regions. A key outcome is the identification of elements of mountain systems that are most sensitive to environmental disturbance as a result of global warming, such as long-term water availability and processes that give rise to geohazards, and highlighting the need for management and mitigation of these varied impacts. • Glaciers in East African mountains are rapidly melting. • These will be the only glaciers present in Africa until the next global ice age. • Glacier retreat will result in significant and irreversible downstream environmental effects. • Most affected will be regional water resources, geohazards, and ecosystem services. • Change in mountain landscapes will impact on socioeconomic and cultural activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper questions urban Africa's preparedness to deal with impacts of climate change and urbanization. • It exposes the vulnerability of African cities in the context of global environmental change. • It argues for stronger emphasis on urban planning in managing these global threats. • It provides recommendations for inclusive urban planning to address climate change. Past and ongoing research shows that African cities remain one of the vulnerable zones of climate change, yet the least prepared. With an expected increase in climate change impacts coupled with rapid urbanization in African cities, this paper inquires: what if more attention is devoted to urban planning in the efforts towards addressing climate change issues and building resilient urban futures in Africa? Using available and relevant literature and Ghana as a case study, it argues that it is about time African cities begin to address climate change through urban planning. This paper anayzes the unexplored potentials of urban planning in addressing issues of climate change in the continent, and makes recommendations for the engagement of urban planning in developing resilient African cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of sub-seasonal climate variability in the global tropics. As such it represents an opportunity for intra-seasonal rainfall prediction and, perhaps, for explaining dynamics that underlie longer term variability and trends. This opportunity is of substantial interest for tropical Africa, where rainfall variability has significant impacts on agriculture, energy, and natural ecosystems. The objective of this review paper is to inventory and assess the state of knowledge of MJO influence on African rainfall. A number of studies have identified statistical links between MJO and sub-seasonal rainfall variability in West, East, and Southern Africa. The proposed mechanisms to explain this influence differ by region and by season, and they often involve multiscale interactions between local precipitation processes and MJO-associated atmospheric dynamics. Dynamically-based forecast systems have some skill in predicting MJO evolution to time horizons of 3–4 weeks, and some can capture teleconnections to Africa. On longer time scales, there is evidence that MJO activity both modulates and is modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The implications of these interactions for MJO connections to Africa require further research, as does the potential for trends in MJO behavior and impacts on Africa under global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the fight against global climate change, improving energy efficiency and reducing related emissions are critical to mitigating sustainability issues such as global warming. In this regard, technological progress is known to improve energy efficiency and reduce related emissions. However, previous sustainability studies on Africa have paid less attention to energy and emission efficiency convergence among countries, along with the contribution of technological progress to the continent's sustainability. Accordingly, this paper develops a novel framework that assesses energy and emission efficiency convergence, gauges technology inequality, identifies the barriers to technology diffusion, and explores the factors influencing energy and emission efficiency convergence in Africa. The proposed framework incorporates Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), several economic convergence concepts, a K-means clustering model, the concept of efficiency Gini coefficient, and a group-based inequality decomposition method. We empirically covered 39 African countries from 2006 to 2018. The results show that African countries are, on average, 71.1% energy efficient and 65.3% CO 2 emission efficient, leaving more room for energy saving and emissions reduction. Second, there is strong evidence of convergence in energy and emission efficiencies in Africa. Third, despite the observed convergence process, there is significant heterogeneity between two research groups (i.e., low-and high-efficiency groups of countries) in terms of energy and emission efficiencies, with persistent technology inequality suggesting a lower contribution of environmental technological advancements to the continent's sustainability. Furthermore, cross-group inequality is the primary barrier to technology diffusion. Fourth, regional cooperation accelerates the convergence process in the two efficiency indicators. While economic development, industrial structure, and renewable energy consumption (REC) tend to favor energy and emission efficiency growth, rising foreign direct investment (FDI) and energy prices have a negative impact. Meanwhile, the effects of energy prices, FDI, and REC on emission efficiency are insignificant. Based on our findings, we discussed policy implications to promote energy and emission efficiency convergence and narrow environmental technology gaps. • Convergence in Total-factor energy and emission efficiency in Africa is explored. • Technology inequality across African countries is measured. • There is strong evidence of convergence in TFEE and TFCEE in Africa. • A persistent technology inequality is found among African countries. • Cross-group efficiency inequality is the main barrier to technology diffusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northwestern Africa is today characterized by high geographical, climatic and ecological diversity; it is recognized as a hotspot of biodiversity and a major area for both human and faunal evolution. Studies of North African fossil microvertebrates have increased considerably in recent years, but they no longer just provide palaeontological descriptions of the species found in the assemblages. They also aim at better understanding the evolution of faunal communities in relation to Quaternary climate changes and at reconstructing the palaeoenvironmental background of prehistoric human occupations, in well-established taphonomic and chronological contexts. These studies are also increasingly adopting an integrative approach by combining archaeology, palaeontology, (palaeo)genetics, taphonomy, palaeoecology and systematics, and using new methods such as geometric morphometrics and isotopic analyses on both fossil and modern specimens. This paper aims to present a history of the studies on Quaternary terrestrial microvertebrates from northwestern Africa, and show how recent multidisciplinary studies have provided new perspectives and evidence on the respective influences of climate change and increasing human pressure on their evolution. • This paper brings an updated state-of-the-art on Quaternary North African microvertebrate studies. • We highlight the interest of combining data from different disciplines (integrative approach). • We especially explore the role of environmental and anthropogenic changes on the microvertebrate biodiversity in Morocco. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper analyses the problem of the sustainable design and development of urban storm-water systems in response to the climate change and anthropic modification. In particular, the work focuses on the case of the African areas that are characterized by high vulnerability towards these issues. A disaggregation procedure is adopted to estimate the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) due to climate change starting from daily rainfall data. An integrated approach is used which combines an optimization algorithm (Harmony Search) and a hydraulic simulator to carry out the optimal design of intervention strategies with low economic impact. The methodology is described and discussed with reference to a case study located in the city of Dar es Salaam (Tanzania). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine conditions that underlie vulnerability and resilience possibilities for households and communities that face and respond to climate- and other changes, in nine East and West African countries. We base our analysis on a unique integrated qualitative and quantitative dataset composed of household surveys and village focus group studies carried out across a wide range of environments and agricultural systems. We identify human population growth, commercialization of the economy, and natural resource use policies, in addition to weather, as key drivers of change. We compare the agricultural and livelihood systems of male and female respondents, as well as their productive resources, organization and access to services. Women have less access than men to common property resources, as well as to cash to obtain goods or services. Women control less land than men, the land they control is often of poorer quality, and their tenure is insecure. Women engage in mutual insurance and risk-sharing networks, and benefit from non-agricultural services provided by social support institutions external to the village. Formally registered, public and private external organizations that foster agriculture and livestock production have tremendous anti-women biases, and tend to provide support primarily to men. Policies and strategies are needed to eliminate those prejudices so that men and women increase their resilience and manage well their changing environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and other anthropogenic threats are increasingly imperilling the diverse biomes of Central Africa, which are globally important for biodiversity, carbon storage and people's livelihoods. The objectives of this paper were to: (i) map the vulnerability of 100 socio-ecologically important priority tree species in Central Africa to climate change, fire, habitat conversion, overexploitation, overgrazing and (ii) propose a spatially explicit strategy to guide restoration and conservation actions. We performed ensemble distribution modelling to predict the present and future distributions of the 100 species, assembled other anthropogenic threat exposure layers, assessed species' sensitivities to the five threats based on their trait profiles, and constructed species-specific vulnerability maps by combining the species' exposure and sensitivity. The results show that these 100 species are vulnerable to the five threats, with an average of 34% of their distribution ranges under high to very high vulnerability and 60% under medium to high vulnerability to at least one threat. Many species identified as most vulnerable in this study are not considered as threatened by the IUCN Red List, suggesting a need to update their conservation status, potentially through integration of the vulnerability mapping methodology we used here. We generated both species-specific maps and summary maps including all 100 species identifying priority areas for a) in-situ conservation, b) ex-situ conservation, and c) active planting or assisted natural regeneration. We present an online platform to enable easy access to the vulnerability and the conservation and restoration priority maps for decision makers and support conservation and restoration planning across Central Africa. • Climate change and other anthropogenic threats menace the biomes of Central Africa. • We map the vulnerability of 100 tree species to climate change and four anthropogenic threats. • The 100 species have on average 34% of their distribution under high vulnerability. • We provide maps with priority areas for conservation and restoration in Central Africa. • Conservation planning and IUCN Red List should include vulnerability assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing economic activities and rapid demographic changes in a number of African countries may have consequential effects on environmental quality. In this paper, a multi-region input–output modeling framework is used to show that except Egypt, Nigeria, Tunisia, South Africa, Zimbabwe and the Rest of North Africa, all other African countries/regions are net-importers of embodied emissions. With respect to the emission-intensive and trade exposed sectors, however, only Egypt, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe are rather net-exporters of embodied emissions. Secondly, panel regression techniques that allow cross-section dependence are used to investigate the determinants of CO 2 emissions in Africa. The estimated elasticities for per capita income and energy intensity are positive, statistically significant and robust for both low- and middle-income African countries. The most active segment of the labor force (percentage of the population between age 14 and 64) and industrialization exert significant positive effects on CO 2 emissions in middle income countries while the impact of urbanization, population and trade openness appears generally insignificant across income groups. The differential impacts of both economic and demographic variables on CO 2 emissions may have implications for the design and implementation of development and climate protection policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Prioritizing the most vulnerable countries is a key goal of global climate change finance. • For the first time, we comprehensively assess whether the biggest climate fund, the GCF, achieves this goal. • Many of the most vulnerable countries have not been able to access GCF funds, particularly LDCs in Africa. • Institutional capacity is a major factor in determining a country's access to funding. • Capacity development and simplified approval tracks need to be strengthened in the emerging climate finance architecture. The evolving architecture of global climate change adaptation finance is shifting towards fund mechanisms with competitive application and allocation principles. At the same time, prioritization of the most vulnerable countries is a key goal within this emerging architecture. The paper analyses whether the Green Climate Fund (GCF), by far the largest climate change fund, has so far delivered on its promise to prioritize the most vulnerable countries. For our analysis, we consider the USD 2.5 billion GCF funding allocated until the end of the first mobilization phase and disaggregate it project-by-project into its mitigation and adaptation related amounts. We then analyze the adaptation flows in terms of the recipient country's level of vulnerability and institutional capacity. We further analyze whether funds are being accessed through independent national entities or international intermediaries and whether recipient countries have developing country priority status. The results show that funds-based adaptation finance creates an ambiguous picture: On the one hand, the GCF is on track in allocating its funds largely to country groups which its statutes aim to prioritize, particularly LDCs, African countries and SIDS. At the same time, the proposal process results in the fact that many countries with the highest climate vulnerability but weak government institutions and fragile state-bureaucracies have missed out and not been able to access project funding, mostly LDCs in Africa and conflict-ridden countries. Further, most countries have not yet been able to access project funds independently through their national entities, limiting direct access and country ownership – the strengthening of which is a major goal of the fund. The findings suggest that simplified approval tracks need to be strengthened in the emerging climate finance architecture so that populations in countries with the lowest institutional capacity but highest vulnerability are not being left behind in the long-run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small-scale fisheries (SSFs) play a significant role in ensuring food security, providing employment and generating livelihoods, however the sustainability and viability of their existence into the future is under threat with global pressures such as climate change, the increasing industrialisation of larger fishing activities and depleting fish stocks. The objectives of this article are to highlight the contributions of SSFs to poverty alleviation and food security and document the lessons learned and best practices for small-scale fisheries development in Africa to guide realistic policy reform and sustainable development projects. This paper brings together lessons from the development of Africa's SSFs over the last thirty years alongside a range of case studies, taken from across the continent, of best practices for further development of SSFs from the perspective of food and nutrition security and of improving livelihoods and income. The key findings of best practices and their application to the sustainable development of African SSFs were: (i) supporting local or community governance; (ii) developing integrated, system-oriented policies which focus on the role SSFs play in food and nutrition security; (iii) investing in low cost innovation; (iv) diversifying fishing practices and livelihoods opportunities; and (v) supporting and cross-pollinating existing infrastructure and initiatives. The effective implementation of these practices by projects or governments necessitates the mobilisation of resources, on-the-ground engagement with stakeholders and using local knowledge to make meaningful change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Emerging trends of a changing and increasingly variable climate have introduced new livelihood challenges in rain-fed smallholder agricultural systems that predominate in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The capacity of local farming communities and their institutions to respond to the new and emerging impacts of climate change is often constrained by lack of access to information and improved technologies, as well as poor support mechanisms to promote assimilation of new knowledge. This threatens to heighten vulnerability of the majority of SSA''s rural communities who are already facing severe problems of food insecurity and a declining soil resource base. In this paper we use two case studies from Wenchi district in Ghana and Makoni in Zimbabwe to communicate how participatory action research (PAR) methodology, characterised by iterative planning–action–reflection cycles, was coupled with a new concept of field-based farmer learning centres to build adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers to climate change. The study was part of a University of Zimbabwe—led project supported under the Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) programme to explore the state of resilience in African smallholder farming. The PAR and learning centre processes enabled communities, local leaders, and extension agents and researchers to establish the, hither to, imperceptible link between poor soil fertility and rising institutional challenges within communities. Institutional conflicts related to land tenure and sharecropping arrangements between migrant farmers and native landowners were addressed in Ghana, while local institutions supporting traditional social safety net mechanisms were revitalized in Zimbabwe. In both cases, it was apparent that farmers faced multiple stresses, at the core of which were poor and declining soil fertility and weakening local institutions. The worsening rainfall distribution and increasing cases of drought are broadening the scope for vulnerability, often driving competing claims and conflicts. PAR was successfully used as an entry point, empowering communities to self-mobilize and self-organize to co-learn and experiment with integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) technologies and other improved farming practices. They realised opportunities for achieving high crop yields and generate surpluses in good years. Strengthening local institutional capacity to revitalise community safety nets proved an essential ingredient for enhancing adaptive capacity of smallholders to climatic shocks. The PAR process was a major driver of effective partnerships among community members, extension, policy makers and researchers, but ensuing success generated a new set of social challenges that could not be addressed within the short timescale of the project. We conclude that PAR was a suitable mechanism for supporting self-organization and co-learning processes among smallholder farmers and their service providers, enabling them to use ISFM technologies and strengthen their local institutions around natural resource management. This revealed the scope for building adaptive capacity of these communities against climate change and variability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Data on waste management in Africa are poor. There is uncertainty over the quantity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from waste management, notably from waste disposal. Data have been collected on solid waste management for territories in Africa and a multi-phase first order decay (FOD) model has been prepared to calculate GHG emissions from waste disposal in accordance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidance. The multi-phase FOD model calculates the GHG emissions from waste disposal as 8.1% of the total GHG emissions in Africa in 2010. This is similar to the last published figure of 6.8% for 2004 data but considerably more than the world average figure of 3% GHG emissions from landfill. Probability modelling of the data used to calculate the multi-phase FOD model demonstrates that the data are variable, with a high standard deviation. The GHG emission rate from waste disposal in African territories will increase leading to further climate change as the population increases and becomes more urbanised. Whilst the UNFCCC is dedicated to minimise climate change globally, this paper demonstrates the need for the creation, at the African level, of a waste management body to assess the situation country by country with the objective to elaborate country specific recommendations for waste management. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Discoveries of fossil Homo outside Africa predating 1.0Ma have generated much discussion about hominin dispersal routes. However, tool-using bipeds were only one element of the inter-continental mammalian dispersals that occurred during the climatic changes of the Pliocene and Pleistocene. This paper will place hominin movements in the context of those of the wider mammalian fauna, which includes carnivores, bovids and non-human primates. The distribution of these different taxa suggests that species moved individually when the environmental conditions were right for them, rather than in multi-species waves of dispersal, and allows evaluation of the contextual evidence for the newly emerging ‘Out of Asia’ paradigm as well as the established ‘Out of Africa’ model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The combined effects of climate change, the continued volatility of fuel prices, the recent food crisis and global economic turbulence have triggered a sense of urgency among policymakers, industries and development practitioners to find sustainable and viable solutions in the area of biofuels. This sense of urgency is reflected in the rapid expansion of global biofuels production and markets over the past few years. Biofuels development offers developing countries some prospect of self-reliant energy supplies at national and local levels, with potential economic, ecological, social, and security benefits. Forty-two African countries are net oil importers. This makes them particularly vulnerable to volatility in global fuel prices and dependent on foreign exchange to cover their domestic energy needs. The goal therefore is to reduce the high dependence on imported petroleum by developing domestic, renewable energy. But can this objective be achieved while leaving a minimal social and environmental footprint? A fundamental question is if biofuels can be produced with consideration of social, economic and environmental factors without setting unrealistic expectation for an evolving renewable energy industry that holds such great promise. The overall performance of different biofuels in reducing non-renewable energy use and greenhouse gas emissions varies when considering the entire lifecycle from production through to use. The net performance depends on the type of feedstock, the production process and the amount of non-renewable energy needed. This paper presents an overview of the development of biofuels in Africa, and highlights country-specific economic, environmental and social issues. It proposes a combination framework of policy incentives as a function of technology maturity, discusses practices, processes and technologies that can improve efficiency, lower energy and water demand, and further reduce the social and environmental footprint of biofuels production thereby contributing to sustainable development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Tropical forests hold several goods and services used by forest-dependent people as safety nets to traverse difficult periods of resource supply. These same goods and services are constantly surrounded by emerging markets linking remote communities with major urban centers nationally and internationally. How these markets affect adaptation remains unclear. This paper examines the roles of markets in non-timber forest products that normally serve as safety nets for forest communities, and the implications for climate change adaptation in the Congo Basin. Following the identification and prioritization of forest-based development sectors for adaptation by stakeholders, the types of markets and trades surrounding the identified sectors were examined in two provinces in the Democratic Republic of Congo as a case study in order to evaluate revenue flows and their potential contribution to adaptation by local communities. The distribution of the market revenue leaves local people with returns much lower than the worth of the commodity, while wholesalers and retailers reap most of the benefits and profit from the high variability in volume and market earnings for the same commodity across provinces. Markets may increase the value of a commodity as observed in this study, but their contributions to adaptation appear highly limited for local communities following their distribution among the stakeholders in the market chain. This is likely to be worse in free market settings, especially when it diminishes the safety net roles of forest goods and services. Markets should therefore complement rather than substitute forests roles for adaptation to climate change in tropical forest countries. Capturing the benefits of trade for adaptation is crucial but will require policy reforms and further research that addresses the complexity in benefit sharing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Several regions of the world have developed capability in providing services on climate information for risk management, but there are still gaps in service delivery due to inadequate information regarding the needs within the regions. This paper highlights the role of Regional Climate Outlook Forums, assesses the needs for some regions and extracts examples of how regional associations could benefit through the provision of better climate services. Problems are given for Africa, South-East Asia, South America, the Pacific and Europe. Different geographical climate features lead to different climate phenomena and in turn determine the type of climate delivery needs for risk management. Short discussions of regional socio-economic factors that shape the needs for climate information provide further context for the unique character of delivery services. Recommendations and future plans follow this assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper reviews information on past vegetation of tropical Africa during the Cenozoic, focused upon the last 10Ma, a time spanning hominid record in Central and East Africa. Summary of palaeobotanical data collected at terrestrial sites are compared with new results on the long term evolution of the continental vegetation zones documented from marine pollen record of two deep sea cores recovered from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Section 2 includes a summary of modern distribution of vegetation belts in the African continent and a synthesis of the results of both macrobotanical (fossil wood, leaves and fruits) and microbotanical (mainly pollen) studies presented according to time scale and geographical location. The main features emphasized by the palaeobotanical results are 1) seasonal vegetation and climate documented as soon as the Eocene in Tanzania 2) well diversified forests existing in northern West Ethiopia during the Oligocene 3) high temporal and spatial variabilities of forests composition during the Miocene when deciduous Legume woodland was documented in Ethiopia whereas wetter evergreen forests existed in Western Kenya 4) lack of evidence for an evergreen forest belt, continuous from Western Congo to East Africa. Section 3 presents new original pollen data recovered from a long core in the Gulf of Aden documenting large scale past vegetation changes in East Africa during the last 11Ma. These results are discussed in comparison with a summarized long pollen sequence previously published from a marine core offshore the Niger delta. This comparison illustrates variations in geographical distribution of large vegetation zone at the continental scale, through time. In Section 4, vegetation changes registered during the last 10Ma are discussed in relation with the results of isotopic studies and an updated presentation of hominids evolution in Africa. Several changes are shown in the marine records. An expansion of savanna/grassland is shown at 10Ma in East Africa, 3Ma earlier than in West Africa where it is documented at 7Ma. At large geographical scale, this first increase in grass pollen simultaneously to forest increase in the marine records is interpreting as reflecting wetter conditions over the continent. Indeed, under global humid conditions, savanna could spread over the desert areas in the Northern and Eastern directions. A forest phase is well documented in West Africa between 7.5 and 7Ma, but has not been shown in East Africa, mainly because of low resolution analysis of the DSDP East African record which needs further investigation for that period. A strong vegetation change took place between 6.3 and 6Ma. It was marked by a trend of important decrease tree cover of the vegetation, simultaneous in West and East Africa. At that time, very arid conditions shown by scarce tree cover occurred over the whole tropical region. This happened before (or at) the early beginning of the Messinian crisis. Generally arid conditions coincide with the accepted timing for the Chimpanzee/hominid split, and record of Sahelanthropus tchadensis in Chad and Orrorin tugenensis in Kenya, although these fossils were found under locally wooded environment. The period from 6 to 4Ma saw the appearance of Ardipithecus and diversification of Australopithecines occurring during a progressive increased tree cover in the broad-scale vegetation that culminated at 3.9Ma, during A. anamensis time and before the first appearance of Australopithecus afarensis. Important variations in the vegetation occurred between 4 and 3Ma, and many plant ecosystems were available to A. afarensis, a hominid which had a wide geographical distribution and persisted at Hadar under temporal climatic and environmental variability. The strongest and abrupt decline of forest pollen accompanied by an increase in the grass pollen was found at 2.7Ma, more pronounced in the West than in East Africa. It was accompanied by a significant increase in C4 grass proportions, well indicated in the Turkana region and likely explained by an increase in dry season length. Such marked changes correspond to the global climate change due to the establishment of the Arctic ice sheet that induced strong aridity in the tropics. Savanna expanded at the expense of rainforest, both in West and East Africa, whereas sub-desertic steppe expanded over savanna areas in the North. Mountain forests moved down slopes, closer to lowland sites in the Rift. Simultaneous faunal changes documented by the herbivores in the fauna, the appearance of early Homo and stone tools in the archaeological record of East Africa appear contemporaneous to local vegetation changes documented at terrestrial sites. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The reconstruction of paleoenvironmental changes from diatoms in lake sediments is based on the usual assumption that, in each studied sample, the dominant species reflect the environment that prevailed during the time of deposition. If the environment changed significantly during the period of deposition (several years) one can expect a mixture of species having different or contradictory ecological affinities. In this paper we present analyses of diatoms in surface sediment samples collected in the Lake Ossa area (3°50′N, 9°36E) and fossil diatoms from a mid-late Holocene core retrieved in the deepest part of the lake. The Lake Ossa area alternates between a short dry season centered at around the northern winter and a long rainy season during the rest of the year entailing significant changes in water level and pH. Based on multivariate analyses, we will show here that mean annual water depth is the most significant variable explaining the distribution of diatoms in the entire Lake. However, seasonal changes of water level are poorly recorded by diatom assemblages, except in some flat areas on the borders of the lakes where a mixing between species with different affinities to water depth is likely due to seasonal changes in water level. Inferred water depth based on a quantitative transfer function reflected essentially secular to millennial changes in the studied core. The relationship between pH and diatoms is not statistically significant but seasonal to multi-annual pH variations mainly observed in the central parts of the lake are reflected by a mixing of acidophilous and alkaliphilous species. Hierarchical ascending cluster analysis (HAC) considered as the most efficient mean of describing diatom mixing shows that seasonal to multi-annual changes in pH are recorded both in the modern and fossil assemblages. According to the degree of mixing between diatoms with different pH affinities we conclude that short-term pH variability was weaker than today between 5200 and 2700calyrBP, stronger between 2700 and 2000calyrBP, weaker again between 2000 and 600calyrBP and similar to present from 400calyrBP onwards. Short-term changes were thus superimposed on secular to millennium trends recorded by modifications in the abundance of alkaliphilous diatoms. All these changes are interpreted as variations in precipitation according to a previous model showing that pH is strongly controlled by acidic meteoric water. Inferred water depth slightly changed over the last 5500years showing weak variations of precipitation minus evaporation balance at secular to millennial time scales. These results will be used to refine previously published paleoclimatic interpretations, which explained changes in precipitation and P–E balance by modifications in the vertical structure of the atmosphere and subsequently by changes in cloud cover, convective or stratiform. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines whether an integrated farm that owns both crops and livestock is more resilient under global warming than a specialized farm in crops. Using around 9000 farm surveys across Africa, we explore how farmers choose one of the farm types and how the net revenue of each type varies across the range of climate in Africa. The results indicate that an integrated farm increases in number while a specialized farm decreases across Africa under climate predictions for 2060. The relative profitability of each system against each other also changes. An integrated farm becomes relatively more profitable over specialized farms half a century from now. The impacts of climate change on integrated farms range from 9% loss to 27% gain depending on climate scenarios. Behavioral models can capture portfolio diversification benefits that agro-economic models cannot measure. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This article conducts a comparative analysis of the interrelationship between climate, life expectancy and income between African and non-African countries. To put the analysis in a broader context of development, the paper develops an income-climate trap model that explains the multi-directional interaction between income, climate and life expectancy. It is suggested that the interaction can give rise to either a virtuous cycle of prosperity or a vicious cycle of poverty. Applying the model to a data set of 158 countries, we find that climate is a more important determinant of life expectancy in African countries than in non-African countries. We provide further empirical evidence that while climate is important in determining both life expectancy and income, income can in turn moderate the adverse effects of climate on life expectancy. In the past two decades, the income level of non-African countries has grown significantly while that of African countries has largely been stagnant, implying that the future development of African countries remains highly vulnerable to adverse climatic conditions. These findings have important implications in the context of climate change, as global warming is likely to create worsening climatic conditions that could see many less developed countries sinking deeper into an income-climate trap of underdevelopment in health. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The inclusion of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is still subject to controversy and discussion. Although the debate seems to proceed in a direction of more open information exchange between Parties and stakeholders, noticeable progress is slow. This paper discusses substantial results on CCS in the CDM based on three recent results: the outcomes of a capacity building effort in Africa, the development of new and improved methodologies for hypothetical CCS projects, and a new estimate of the market impact of CCS natural gas operations on the CDM. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of climatic change on the level of total agricultural production of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and non-Sub-Sahara Africa (NSSA) developing countries. In doing so it uses a new cross-country panel climatic dataset in an agricultural production framework. The results show that climate, measured as changes in country-wide rainfall and temperature, has been a major determinant of agricultural production in SSA. In contrast, NSSA countries appear not to be affected by climate in the same manner. Simulations using the estimates suggest that the detrimental changes in climate since the 1960s can account for a substantial portion of the gap in agricultural production between SSA and the rest of the developing world. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper seeks to discern the influence of environmental variability on pastoral conflict in the Horn of Africa. While the literature on environmental factors in civil wars is rich in empirical research and explanatory power, the dearth of data is an obstacle to the study of other important forms of violence such as pastoral conflict. If environmental factors are associated with pastoral conflict then what are they, and can they be used as early warning indicators to prevent its escalation or mitigate its effects? These questions are increasingly important given the expected impact of climate change on pastoral societies worldwide. To help answer these questions we draw on data collected by field monitors with the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development''s (IGAD) Conflict Early Warning and Response Network (CEWARN) and environmental data for the same region. Field monitors collect incident and situation reports from more than two dozen areas of reporting along the borders of Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda collectively known at the Karamoja Cluster. We compare these conflict data with three environmental indicators: precipitation, vegetation and forage. Preliminary statistical analyses of the data suggest that aggravating behavior, along with a reduction in peace initiatives and reciprocal exchanges, is associated with an escalation in pastoral conflict, particularly when coupled with an increase in vegetation that may provide cover for organized raids. We therefore recommend that conflict early warning systems integrate both response options and salient environmental indicators into their analyses to better deal with the complexity of the relationships between pastoral conflict and the environment in an era of climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper reports new multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental data on the late Glacial-Holocene transition (c. 14.8–9.3 ka) in equatorial East Africa, in the form of microfossil assemblages (chironomids, diatoms and ostracods) recovered from the sediment record of Lake Emakat, Empakaai Crater, northern Tanzania. In the context of available palaeoclimatic and palaeoecological information from the region and previously published fossil pollen and carbon and nitrogen isotopic data for the same sediment sequence, we here reconstruct local lake-system response to regional climatic and hydrological instability during the period of post-glacial warming. The aquatic biological proxy indicators suggest that the water level and chemistry of Lake Emakat evolved, first from a shallow freshwater body at 14.8 ka to a deeper freshwater phase between c.14.4 and 10.3 ka and then to a markedly shallower, alkaline-saline environment after c.10.3 ka. The lake appears to have been deepest between 13.2 and 12.0 ka, at a time of climatic drying when moist montane forest vegetation within the lake''s crater catchment was being replaced by open wood-and scrubland. Some palaeohydrological changes reconstructed for Lake Emakat are in phase with lake evolution elsewhere in the region and thus apparently track broad-scale climate changes, but some are not. Collectively these multi-proxy paleolimnological data indicate a complex adjustment of the local aquatic ecosystem to temporal variations both in total annual effective precipitation and its seasonal distribution. The lake''s hydrological response was further conditioned by local factors, notably its geological and topographic setting. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]