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Empirical studies suggest that the effect sizes of individual causal risk alleles underlying complex genetic diseases are small, with most genotype relative risks in the range of 1.1-2.0. Although the increased risk of disease for a carrier is small for any single locus, knowledge of multiple-risk alleles throughout the genome could allow the identification of individuals that are at high risk. In this study, we investigate the number and effect size of risk loci that underlie complex disease constrained by the disease parameters of prevalence and heritability. Then we quantify the value of prediction of genetic risk to disease using a range of realistic combinations of the number, size, and distribution of risk effects that underlie complex diseases. We propose an approach to assess the genetic risk of a disease in healthy individuals, based on dense genome-wide SNP panels. We test this approach using simulation. When the number of loci contributing to the disease is >50, a large case-control study is needed to identify a set of risk loci for use in predicting the disease risk of healthy people not included in the case-control study. For diseases controlled by 1000 loci of mean relative risk of only 1.04, a case-control study with 10,000 cases and controls can lead to selection of ∼75 loci that explain >50% of the genetic variance. The 5% of people with the highest predicted risk are three to seven times more likely to suffer the disease than the population average, depending on heritability and disease prevalence. Whether an individual with known genetic risk develops the disease depends on known and unknown environmental factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic and fossil evidence supports a single, recent (<200,000 yr) origin of modern Homo sapiens in Africa, followed by later population divergence and dispersal across the globe (the "Out of Africa" model). However, there is less agreement on the exact nature of this migration event and dispersal of populations relative to one another. We use the empirically observed genetic correlation structure (or linkage disequilibrium) between 242,000 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 17 global populations to reconstruct two key parameters of human evolution: effective population size (Ne) and population divergence times (T). A linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based approach allows changes in human population size to be traced over time and reveals a substantial reduction in Ne accompanying the "Out of Africa" exodus as well as the dramatic re-expansion of non-Africans as they spread across the globe. Secondly, two parallel estimates of population divergence times provide clear evidence of population dispersal patterns "Out of Africa" and subsequent dispersal of proto-European and proto-East Asian populations. Estimates of divergence times between European-African and East Asian-African populations are inconsistent with its simplest manifestation: a single dispersal from the continent followed by a split into Western and Eastern Eurasian branches. Rather, population divergence times are consistent with substantial ancient gene flow to the proto-European population after its divergence with proto-East Asians, suggesting distinct, early dispersals of modern . sapiens from Africa. We use stimulated genetic polymorphism data to demonstrate the validity of our conclusions against alternative population demographic scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]