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When only higher-confidence net-zero targets are included on top of current policies (case B), global warming is projected to increase to 2.4°C by 2100 (range due to emissions projection uncertainties: 1.7° to 3.0°C) - missing global climate goals by a long way. INSIGHTS Clobal climate policy is undergoing a rite of passage. Global warming projections mirror this uncertainty, with best-estimate emissions leading to a median temperature projection for the year 2100 of 2.6°C, with a range of 1.7° to 3.0°C, depending on how policies are assumed to continue after 2030 (see the figure) (table S6). [Extracted from the article]

Geophysical models of climate change are becoming increasingly sophisticated, yet less effort is devoted to modelling the human systems causing climate change and how the two systems are coupled. Here, we develop a simple socio-climate model by coupling an Earth system model to a social dynamics model. We treat social processes endogenously—emerging from rules governing how individuals learn socially and how social norms develop—as well as being influenced by climate change and mitigation costs. Our goal is to gain qualitative insights into scenarios of potential socio-climate dynamics and to illustrate how such models can generate new research questions. We find that the social learning rate is strongly influential, to the point that variation of its value within empirically plausible ranges changes the peak global temperature anomaly by more than 1°C. Conversely, social norms reinforce majority behaviour and therefore may not provide help when we most need it because they suppress the early spread of mitigative behaviour. Finally, exploring the model's parameter space for mitigation cost and social learning suggests optimal intervention pathways for climate change mitigation. We find that prioritising an increase in social learning as a first step, followed by a reduction in mitigation costs provides the most efficient route to a reduced peak temperature anomaly. We conclude that socio-climate models should be included in the ensemble of models used to project climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean acidification has the potential to significantly impact both aquaculture and wild-caught mollusk fisheries around the world. In this work, we build upon a previously published integrated assessment model of the US Atlantic Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery to determine the possible future of the fishery under a suite of climate, economic, biological, and management scenarios. We developed a 4x4x4x4 hypercube scenario framework that resulted in 256 possible combinations of future scenarios. The study highlights the potential impacts of ocean acidification and management for a subset of future climate scenarios, with a high CO2 emissions case (RCP8.5) and lower CO2 emissions and climate mitigation case (RCP4.5). Under RCP4.5 and the highest impact and management scenario, ocean acidification has the potential to reduce sea scallop biomass by approximately 13% by the end of century; however, the lesser impact scenarios cause very little change. Under RCP8.5, sea scallop biomass may decline by more than 50% by the end of century, leading to subsequent declines in industry landings and revenue. Management-set catch limits improve the outcomes of the fishery under both climate scenarios, and the addition of a 10% area closure increases future biomass by more than 25% under the highest ocean acidification impacts. However, increased management still does not stop the projected long-term decline of the fishery under ocean acidification scenarios. Given our incomplete understanding of acidification impacts on P. magellanicus, these declines, along with the high value of the industry, suggest population-level effects of acidification should be a clear research priority. Projections described in this manuscript illustrate both the potential impacts of ocean acidification under a business-as-usual and a moderately strong climate-policy scenario. We also illustrate the importance of fisheries management targets in improving the long-term outcome of the P. magellanicus fishery under potential global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass as a renewable energy source has become increasingly prevalent in Europe to comply with greenhouse gas emission targets. As one of the most efficient perennial bioenergy crops, there is great potential in the Upper Rhine Region to explore biomass utilization of Miscanthus to confront climate change and land use demand in the future. Yet, the impacts of Miscanthus cultivation on soil quality have not been adequately explored. This study investigated the soil profiles of five- and 20-year-old Miscanthus fields (1 m depth) as well as grassland for reference in eastern France and Switzerland. The soil organic carbon (SOC) concentrations and δ13C compositions of four soil layers (0–10 cm, 10–40 cm, 40–70 cm and 70–100 cm) were determined. The CO2 emission rates of the topsoil were monitored for 42 days. Our results showed that Miscanthus, in general, could increase the SOC stocks compared to grassland, but the benefits of SOC sequestration were constrained to the surface soil. Isotopically, the Miscanthus-derived SOC ranged from 69% in the top 10 cm of soil down to only 7% in the 70 cm to 100 cm layer. This result raises the risk of overestimating the total net benefits of Miscanthus cultivation, when simply using the greater SOC stocks near the surface soil to represent the SOC-depleted deep soil layers. The Miscanthus fields had greater CO2 emissions, implying that the Miscanthus fields generated greater ecosystem respiration, rather than larger net ecosystem exchanges. Compared to the grassland soils, the surface soils of the Miscanthus fields tended to have a risk of acidification while having higher concentrations of phosphorus and potassium, calling for the inclusion of soil characteristics and SOC stability when evaluating the impacts of long-term Miscanthus cultivation on both current and future land use changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Policies to mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can yield public health benefits by also reducing emissions of hazardous co-pollutants, such as air toxics and particulate matter. Socioeconomically disadvantaged communities are typically disproportionately exposed to air pollutants, and therefore climate policy could also potentially reduce these environmental inequities. We sought to explore potential social disparities in GHG and co-pollutant emissions under an existing carbon trading program-the dominant approach to GHG regulation in the US and globally.Methods and Findings: We examined the relationship between multiple measures of neighborhood disadvantage and the location of GHG and co-pollutant emissions from facilities regulated under California's cap-and-trade program-the world's fourth largest operational carbon trading program. We examined temporal patterns in annual average emissions of GHGs, particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, volatile organic compounds, and air toxics before (January 1, 2011-December 31, 2012) and after (January 1, 2013-December 31, 2015) the initiation of carbon trading. We found that facilities regulated under California's cap-and-trade program are disproportionately located in economically disadvantaged neighborhoods with higher proportions of residents of color, and that the quantities of co-pollutant emissions from these facilities were correlated with GHG emissions through time. Moreover, the majority (52%) of regulated facilities reported higher annual average local (in-state) GHG emissions since the initiation of trading. Neighborhoods that experienced increases in annual average GHG and co-pollutant emissions from regulated facilities nearby after trading began had higher proportions of people of color and poor, less educated, and linguistically isolated residents, compared to neighborhoods that experienced decreases in GHGs. These study results reflect preliminary emissions and social equity patterns of the first 3 years of California's cap-and-trade program for which data are available. Due to data limitations, this analysis did not assess the emissions and equity implications of GHG reductions from transportation-related emission sources. Future emission patterns may shift, due to changes in industrial production decisions and policy initiatives that further incentivize local GHG and co-pollutant reductions in disadvantaged communities.Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first study to examine social disparities in GHG and co-pollutant emissions under an existing carbon trading program. Our results indicate that, thus far, California's cap-and-trade program has not yielded improvements in environmental equity with respect to health-damaging co-pollutant emissions. This could change, however, as the cap on GHG emissions is gradually lowered in the future. The incorporation of additional policy and regulatory elements that incentivize more local emission reductions in disadvantaged communities could enhance the local air quality and environmental equity benefits of California's climate change mitigation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

However, although historically their emissions have been great, most of the developed economies decoupled their carbon emissions and economic growth with the decarbonizing industry, and peaked their emissions by the first decade of this century [[2]]. Although theoretically these countries emit much less CO SB 2 sb , they appear to be more sensitive and susceptible to climate change, and it is very difficult for academics to conduct thorough studies in order to understand their emission baselines and track their climate change mitigation efforts. Therefore, their work advocates international assistance for these emerging emitters and reveals the important role of historically major emitters in addressing global climate change, not only to provide technical and financial assistance to reduce emissions, but also to prioritize their own emission reduction agenda. [Extracted from the article]