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Remittances have become a significant component of international capital flows, with millions of migrants sending billions of dollars back to their home countries annually. However, the way these outflows affect macroeconomic variables has not received sufficient attention in the literature, especially in the context of varying levels of financial development. Using time series data from 1987 to 2022 for the United Kingdom, this study examines the macroeconomic effects of remittance outflows and financial development. Our baseline estimation using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model reveals heterogeneous impacts, as remittance outflows adversely affect economic growth but improve exchange rates. We find remittances do not have a significant effect on inflation or bank rates. The moderating effect of financial development analysis reveals a similar outcome. Our results suggest governments should consider stimulus policies that support investment in productive sectors to improve macroeconomic indicators and facilitate financial inclusion to enhance the adoption of growth strategies that promote remittances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of financial development-international trade nexus and its implication for growth, studies have yet to look at the impact of new financial development indicators developed by the International Monetary Fund on international trade performance in Nigeria. This is one of the few attempts made to examine the elasticity of trade to financial development, given the inconclusive findings that permeate the literature. Therefore, this paper investigates the effect of financial development on aggregate trade performance in Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2021. The empirical framework is based on the ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction model. The findings revealed that (i) The ARDL bound test revealed the existence of a long-run equilibrium association between the variables; (ii) We find that a unit improvement in financial development induces a 1.1%-1.2% increase in trade performance in the short-run short term and a 9.7% in the long-run; (iii) The results show that a 1% increase in the exchange rate (depreciation) leads to a 0.01% improvement in trade performance in the short-term. The findings have important policy implications. The paper concludes that financial development contributes to trade performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The document provides information on the Delphi method and its application in scientific research. It explains that the Delphi method is a qualitative technique used to obtain consensus from a group of experts on a specific problem. The method has been used in various fields such as defense, health, tourism, education, and business. The document also briefly discusses the methodological foundations of Delphi, including the selection and composition of the panel of experts, the iterative process in rounds, and criteria for consensus and stability. Additionally, the document provides data on economic and financial indicators in Mexico, such as the National Consumer Price Index, the Exchange rate, the IPC (Mexican Stock Exchange), and interest rates and investment units. The data spans from 2013 to 2024 and can be useful for researchers studying the economic situation in Mexico. The document also references various sources that discuss the Delphi method and its applications in different fields. [Extracted from the article]

Copyright of International Journal of Economics, Business & Politics (UEIP) is the property of International Journal of Economics, Business & Politics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We analize the Mexican peso-US dollar exchange parity the volatility using three models in order to evaluate the exchange rate risk performance and the these models capability of modeling such risk. The period June 21st, 2017 to June 21st, 2022 is marked by singular events that pressed this exchange rate parity, making it of great interest to study the tools that can be used to measure this uncertainty besides the study of the exchange rate uncertainty itself. The arrival of a leftwing politician to the presidency was an unprecedented event. At the beginning of 2020 the price war in the oil market and the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic had important effects in the world economy. Finally, the war in Ukraine added pressures to the international trade of raw materials, inducing an inflationary episode with bad expectations about the economic performance around the world. The exchange rate scenarios posed by the aforesaid events provide us with a natural context to test which of the posited volatility models offers a better fit. Unanimously, the results under the three models suggest that during the first year of the President López Obrador period the exchange rate uncertainty was reduced compared to previous levels, returning again to those minor levels after the forced closure of economic activities due to the emergence of COVID-19, even though the exchange fluctuation band has been slightly higher than before the pandemic and the war on East Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economic Policy Researches / İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi is the property of Journal of Economic Policy Researches / Iktisat Politikasi Arastirmalari Dergisi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

New Developmentalism doctrine defends the central role played by a competitive real exchange rate in promoting catch-up in developing economies. Recently, this theory has been questioned by critics; the main criticism has been that an outward growth strategy based on a competitive real exchange rate would harm income/real wage distribution and have a negative effect on the economy. This study discusses how the real exchange rate influences growth in light of the new developmentalist doctrine and the contrasting experiences of Asian and Latin American countries. Its main contribution is to document the influence of the real exchange rate on economic performance, specifically through certain transmission channels. The article's findings suggest that a competitive RER is an important aspect in a country's growth path, insofar as it favors profits, capital accumulation, net exports, and gains in social capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The consumer price index (CPI) is a crucial economic indicator of consumer price inflation, which has an attendance effect on the extent of savings and, hence, on investment capacity. The literature contains different opinions on the relationship between exchange rate and consumer price index; however, given the uniqueness of each country's economic environment, it became apposite to focus the bearing of this paper on the South African economic context. Thus, this paper evaluates the effect of currency exchange rates on the consumer price index in South Africa. Time series data on CPI and exchange rates were drawn from the Fusion Media investment database and were analysed using the OLS regression. For the independent variables exchange rate, which is the Rand price against the Dollar, the authors applied lagg-2 given the assumption that exchange rate differences might take up to two months to affect the consumer price index. The authors' assumption draws from the findings of eminent scholars, which indicate that, given sufficient time, changes in domestic prices would fully compensate for exchange rate adjustments. The analysis showed that exchange rate changes significantly and positively affect CPI within the data's boundaries. The findings offer academic and practical implications for understanding the theoretical short-term period effect of the exchange rate on the consumer price index within the South African setting and for practical economic policy application for advanced policies to cushion potential negative effects on savings and investment. The paper provides an agenda for further study of the application of expanded time series to evaluate the effect of currency exchange rates on CPI over a longer period to unravel a theoretical difference between the short-term and long-term implications of exchange rates on CPI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article1 presents some risks of external debt in Romania generated by its structure and characteristics. Given the rise in the share of short-term external debt, the associated risks increase, among which there is the augmentation in the volatility of the exchange rate of the national currency, the advance in the probability of a currency crisis and the vulnerability to interest rate fluctuations. The author calculates specific indicators from the economic literature in order to attain the paper’s objectives, namely, to see what the situation of Romania’s indebtedness is and if there is a vulnerability to an external debt crisis. In addition, other indicators are used to assess the debt characteristics of an economy. The values of the calculated indicators show that two shocks have been felt during the analysed period; the first is the economic-financial crisis triggered in 2008, and the other is the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Romania is vulnerable to the outburst of a foreign debt crisis, with a risk of having problems regarding debt repayment. The methodology used joins the empirical analysis of statistical data and their interpretation, with the identification of correlations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A time series data contains a large amount of information in itself. Chaos data and volatility data which calculated by any time series are also derivative information included in the same time series. According to these assumptions, it is very important to question the ability of chaos and volatility information to affect each other, and which information affects and which information is affected. It is very important to determine the causes of volatility, which is an important result indicator for the finance literature, and especially with this study, it was tried to determine whether the chaos data is in a causal relationship with volatility. If some of the chaos data can be identified as the cause of volatility, the detected chaos data can be used in other research as a leading indicator of volatility. The data set used in the study is the daily €/$ exchange rate index between 01.01.2005 and 10.11.2022. In the study, time series of chaos data were created with Windowed RQA method and Hatemi-J asymmetric causality analysis research was carried out between these time series and €/$ exchange rate index volatility. The findings of the study conclude that the chaos data LnRR, LnEntr and LnLAM could be used as leading indicators of the €/$ exchange rate index volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digitization of socio-economic processes at the micro level enabled integrated processing of accounting information, the final stage of which is electronic integrated reporting. To simultaneously inform internal and external stakeholders about the foreign economic activity of enterprises, it is necessary to improve the method of forming integrated reporting documents. The purpose of the article is to improve the structure and content of integrated reporting, which combines various types of reporting documents in a single electronic format with the financial and non-financial indicators using regarding the foreign economic activity of enterprises. The formation of electronic integrated reporting documents on foreign economic activity involves: combining elements of management, financial and statistical reporting; simultaneous use of different financial and non-financial indicators; integrated informing of internal and external users about international operations of the enterprise. The possibility of adapting the taxonomy of electronic integrated reporting to the information needs of stakeholders and their rights of access to the commercial secret of the enterprise in the context of foreign economic activity is substantiated. The procedure for displaying electronic integrated reporting documents in foreign languages and foreign currency exchange rates has been developed in accordance with the information priorities of foreign users of reporting information. For explaining the impact of exchange rate changes on financial results, it is proposed to display relevant indicators related to the operational and non-operational activities of enterprises – subjects of foreign economic activity in the electronic integrated reporting. The method of using graphic elements and analytical tables in electronic integrated reporting documents in the context of foreign economic activity has been improved for the visual optimization of its use by internal and external users. Prospects for further research consist in the use of analytical methods of researching the foreign economic activity of enterprises for the informational filling of graphic objects and analytical tables of electronic integrated reporting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research analyzes the effect of the government bond yield curve spread on economic growth performance in Indonesia using the indicators of exchange rate, inflation, BI rate, foreign investment, portfolio investment, current account, and government accounts. Furthermore, it aims to prove the accuracy of the vector autoregression (VAR) or vector autoregression model in predicting economic growth from Q1 2010 to Q3 2020. The results showed that the yield curve spread has a significant effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, the exchange rate, inflation, and the BI rate have a negative effect on economic growth. Capital inflows such as foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, as well as the current account balance and government balance have a positive effect on economic growth. These results are useful to government policymakers, fund managers, and investors, as they provide further evidence of the potential use of yield curves as an indicator of future economic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the beginning of the 198Os, a continuous process of integration of national and regional markets into one global market for goods, services and capital can be noticed. Both economic theory and market practice indicate that the level of the exchange rate primarily depends on macroeconomic variables (such as interest rates or the number of new jobs in the nonagricultural sector). The results of the research presented in the article regard the importance of US macroeconomic data publications for the short-term volatility of EUR/USD exchange rate. The main purpose of the study was to show whether macroeconomic data from the United States affects the short-term development of the EUR/USD exchange rate and whether the Forex market is a good way to multiply capital. The following research questions have been posed: does the EUR/USD exchange rate react to the published macroeconomic data from the American economy? Second, is whether investing in the Forex market could be a way to multiply capital in times of economic boom and recession. This paper presents the effects of my own research and observations in terms of the impact of US macroeconomic data, on shaping exchange rates of the Forex market. Based on my own investment experience my goal is to prove, that Forex market is a perfect way to multiply capital. My investment decisions regarding future exchange rate fluctuations, were based on the presented macroeconomic data from the US economy, as well as on the basis of important leading economic indicators. The position was opened and closed on the same day. The trading contracts have been made throughout 7 working days. The underlying financial instruments were EUR/USD and OIL. The conclusions of this study are as follows. The USD/PLN exchange rate reacted to the published macroeconomic data from USA. The strongest exchange rate reaction was noticed after publications of data regarding US Non - farm Payrolls (NFP), Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI. Strong exchange rate reaction was recorded after ADP US Private Sector Jobs and Factory orders report. When taking described investment examples into account, it can be clearly stated that investing in the Forex market is an excellent alternative to stock investments.C [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Economica (00130419) is the property of Universidad Nacional de La Plata and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper, we follow Bresser-Pereira et al. (2021) and estimate for Mexico a a series of the real exchange rate (RER) that balances the current account for Mexico for the period 2001q1-2019q4. In this process we take into account numerous determinants, including policy variables and financial indicators the evolution of the terms of trade, as well as a proxi for the Balassa-Samuelson effects, inter alia. Our results show that in most of the period analyzed there has been a trend tendency towards overvaluation, with the RER fluctuating above its equilibrium level. With cointegrating methods, and dynamic ordinary least squared (DOLS) techniques, we examined the effects of exchange rate under and overvaluation on manufacturing; disaggregated in three sectors: i) technology intensive, ii) natural resource intensive and iii) labor intensive activities. Overall, our results indicate that the real exchange rate has a significant influence on the rate of expansion of Mexico's manufacturing real GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: In the Visegrad Four (V4) countries (Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia), the inward foreign direct investment (FDI) shows high shares in the exports and gross domestic product (GDP). Furthermore, reinvested earnings play a significant role in the national balances of payments (BoP). Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the reinvestment rates and effective corporate income tax rates (ETRs) of transnational corporations (TNCs) and financial institutions settled in the V4 countries and compare them with the said rates in other European Union (EU) Member States. It is essential to unveil factors shaping investors' decisions to reinvest profits. Policymakers should reflect on them when cultivating the overall business climate to boost citizens' welfare. Purpose of the article: We aim to identify the determinants of the FDI profit reinvestment rate in the V4 countries as host economies from 2014 to 2019 and draw a comparison with the EU-27 average. We dedicate special attention to the correlation between the reinvestment and the ETRs and other selected business climate indicators as specified in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business (World Bank, 2020). Methods: To assess the determinants of the reinvestment rates, we employ a three-stage model of multiple linear regression, where we analyse extensive datasets published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Eurostat, World Bank, and public and aggregate country-by-country reports (CbCR) provided by the respective financial institutions and TNCs. Findings & value added: Our research shows that the corporate income tax (CIT) rate and ETRs significantly correlate with the reinvestment rate. The same applies to three Ease of Doing Business sub-indicators (Starting a business, Getting credit, and Contract enforcement). Contrary to the findings of Lundan (2006), Beugelsdijk et al. (2010), Nguyen and Rugman (2015), and Sutherland et al. (2020), macroeconomic factors, the profitability of corporations, and exchange rate stability turned out to be statistically insignificant. Our research has policy implications, for it can contribute to policy discussions on enhancing business environments in the V4 countries and ways to motivate foreign investors to reinvest their profits. The added value combines macroeconomic data with the unique and relatively new CbCR databases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between exchange rate and money demand has long been debated among macroeconomists due to its impact on the stability of money demand and monetary policy. Following the significant depreciation in the currency exchange associated with the political instability in Malaysia in recent years, examining the relationship between exchange rate and money demand is crucial to ensure the monetary policy remains prudent. This study examined the asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on money demand in Malaysia using both linear and nonlinear ARDL approaches. The findings reveal that the money demand responds asymmetrically to exchange rate changes both in the short and long run, whereby the response to a negative shock (local currency depreciation) outweighs the positive shock (local currency appreciation). The result also suggests that the substitution effects dominate the exchange rate and money demand relationship. Consequently, with the economic and political instability continuing, the currency exchange is expected to depreciate further, contributed by the strong substitution effects. This will greatly affect the stability of money demand and the monetary policy and thereby call upon a policy intervention to strengthen the currency exchange and sustain the long-run economic performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the open economy macroeconomic indicators such as the balance of trade and exchange rate interact with the economic and environmental indicators, it is worthy of delving into their interactive linkages. This study investigates the long-run and short-run dynamic interactive links among the balance of trade, aggregate economic output, real exchange rate, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Pakistan. Bayer and Hanck's combined cointegration and the auto-regressive distributed lag method are applied on annual time-series data from 1970 through 2018. The key findings are: (1) Balance of trade and real exchange rate imparted the CO2 emissions mitigation influence in both the long run and the short run. In contrast, the aggregate economic output exhibited the CO2 emissions driving influence in the long run and short run. (2) Balance of trade and real exchange rate induced enhancing and impeding influence on aggregate economic output, respectively, in the short run. However, they exposed the aggregate economic output strengthening influence in the long run. Besides, CO2 emissions produced a neutral influence on the aggregate economic output in the short run, whereas it put forward the aggregate economic output hampering influence in the long run. (3) Aggregate economic output revealed a balance of trade improvement influence for both the long run and short run. Nevertheless, the real exchange rate showed the balance of trade deterioration (improvement) influence in the short run (long run), confirming the J-curve hypothesis in Pakistan. Furthermore, (a) a bidirectional causality existed between CO2 emissions and aggregate economic output, and balance of trade and aggregate economic output. (b) A unidirectional causality existed from real exchange rate to balance of trade and aggregate economic output, and from the balance of trade and real exchange rate to CO2 emissions. The diversification of exports and energy mix is recommended to improve the balance of trade, economic aggregates, and environmental sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aimed to measure the impact of local variables, which are represented by the events of January 25 and the liberalisation of the exchange rate and the consequent increase in energy prices, on the production and economic and marketing indicators of the potato crop. The study period was divided into two periods, the first (2001-2010) representing before January 25 and the liberalisation of the exchange rate, and the second period (2011-2019) representing after January 25 and the liberalisation of the exchange rate. Potatoes show an increase in the cultivated area, acre productivity, total production available for consumption, and total losses of the potato crop in the period after January 25 and the liberalisation of the exchange rate, with an increase rate of about 51.5%, 5.31%, 39.19%, 82.54%, and 168.83% than it was in a certain period. before January 25 and liberalise the exchange rate for each, respectively. By using the dummy variables method to measure the impact of the events of January 25 and the liberalisation of the exchange rate on the variables, it was found that there was a statistically significant increasing effect of the events on the cultivated area and the total production of the potato crop, while the statistical significance of the coefficients of the feddan productivity, the available for total consumption, and the total loss of the potato crop was not proven. The study of the impact of local variables on the economic indicators of the potato crop revealed an increase in production costs, farm price, and net yield of the potato crop after January 25th and the liberalisation of the exchange rate, with increases of 129.85%, 134.49%, and 191.78%, respectively, compared to the period prior to January 25th and the liberalisation of the exchange rate. It was also clear that there was a statistically significant increasing effect of the events of the second period, as it was found that in the period after January 25 and the liberalisation of the exchange rate, there was a greater boom in the net yield per feddan, the cost of the unit produced, and the agricultural price than in its counterpart in the period before January 25 and the liberalisation of the exchange rate. As for the marketing indicators of the potato crop, it was found that there had been an increase in both the wholesale and retail prices, and the rate of increase was about 235.52%, or 240.56 percent of what it was in the period before January 25 and the liberalisation of the exchange rate. By examining the impact of local variables on the marketing efficiency of the potato crop, it was found that there was a decrease in the marketing efficiency in the period after January 25 and the liberalisation of the exchange rate at a rate of about 12.7% compared to the period before January 25 and the liberalisation of the exchange rate. By studying the simple matrix between the different price levels of the potato crop, it was found that there is a positive significant correlation between the farm price and both the wholesale price and the retail price. It was also found that there is a very strong correlation between the wholesale price and the retail price. By estimating the marketing efficiency functions, it was found that when the farm price increased by 1%, it increased the marketing efficiency by 0.06%. It also appears that when the cost of production per tonne increases by one pound, it leads to an increase in marketing efficiency of 0.21%. While it was found that when the retail price decreased by 1%, it led to an increase in marketing efficiency of 0.28%, while remaining low. It was found from the study of the retail function that when the farm price increased by 1%, it led to an increase in the retail price by 0.78%. It was also clear that when the wholesale price increased by one pound, it increased the retail price by 0.27%. It was also found from the study of the cost function that about 73% of the changes in production costs are due to the change in feddan productivity, while the rest of the changes are due to unmeasured factors in the function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is an attempt to analyze the effects of current exchange rate regimes on the economic growth achieved by the MENA countries. To determine in a dynamic perspective new relationships that will be established between growth and exchange rate regimes, we are looking for an answer to two major concerns, namely: the question of the choice of the exchange rate regime and the question of the impact of this choice on economic performance. To reach our objective we first studied the theoretical and empirical literature of the exchange rate regime and then we had to study the evolution of the exchange rate regime in MENA countries. Then, we got an economic model based on the determinants of growth. The data used on this model takes the form of panel data for 5 MENA countries (Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia) for the period 1984-2019, as well as, several methods of modeling will be discussed, to finally adopt one from them that best applies to our research goal and shows several possibilities that can be used to apply this model in different ways depending on the country considered. The results reveal that it is very important to take into account the monetary policy framework that accompanies the exchange rate regime when assessing the effects of this regime on the overall performance of the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, global value chains (GVCs) are increasingly shaping the global economy, covering a growing share of international trade, GDP, and employment globally. Global trade is impacted by the emergence of GVCs in areas as diverse as commodities, electronics, and business service outsourcing, among other areas, since the countries involved in the GVCs hold some value(s) and benefit(s) from the exports of the finished product. In this study, the nexus among Competitively Valued Exchange Rates, Price level, and Growth Performance in the Turkish Economy; New insight from the GVCs is investigated using annual data from 1980 to 2020 within the framework of the ARDL bound test, Bayer and Hanck Cointegration (BHC) test, and ECM. The study results revealed that the relationship among real effective exchange rate, exports, and imports induced economic performance and external trade competitiveness particularly when directed at GVCs in both the short and long run. The study recommends that policies enhancing a 10% equilibrium convergence are required annually to competitively minimize the dependence on foreign value-added inputs by importing only world-class inputs for value addition and exports benefits in the competitive GVCs world. Furthermore, monetary policy, GVCs, and economic growth should be investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study uses a market-oriented approach to investigate the relationship between the financial system and SMEs access to finance in Nigeria between 1995 and 2019. Both indicators from the capital and money markets are used as independent variables while some macroeconomic variables such as inflation rate, interest rate and exchange rate are also used. The study made use of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag to explore the long and short-run relationship and the result shows that the capital market has a more significant impact on SMEs access to finance than the money market. Variables such as inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate all have a significant influence on access to finance by the SMEs. it is recommended that the money market as an important aspect of the financial system in Nigeria should be made to devote more credit to the SMEs sector as it has shown from this study that the bulk of the credit going into the private sector from the money market might not go into the SMEs sector. The inflation rate should also be controlled as well as reducing the lending rate and guide against unreasonable currency devaluation to promote access to finance by the SMEs in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses The Cause of the Great Depression: The Decision to Resume the Gold Standard on Prewar Terms, which includes the Great Depression was also special Robert Lucas observes that the Great Depression dealt a serious blow to the idea of the business cycle as a repeated occurrence of the same event, and continues, in some respects, to defy explanation by existing economic analysis.

In order to achieve the main objective of the European Central Bank and implicitly of the national central banks that make up the European System of Central Banks, the Governing Council of the ECB bases its decisions on a two-pillar monetary policy strategy and implements them both through ordinary monetary policy, as well as through unconventional measures. Monetary policy is the set of actions by which monetary authorities monitor and regulate the amount of currency in circulation, the level of interest rates, exchange rates and other economic and monetary indicators in order to achieve the general objectives of economic policy. The main monetary policy instruments used to achieve the objectives are market operations, permanent facilitation and the establishment of minimum required reserves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study investigated empirically, the prospect for single currency in West African sub-region. Latest data from the fifteen members of ECOWAS was collected on basically six major criteria for monetary union. Simple bar chat was used to showcase the position of each member at present and the readiness for such monetary union. Descriptive statistics was employed to analyse the convergence tendency of member states using all six criteria which are economic indicators. The result divulged that, except for exchange rate that has convergence to a large extent, all the other criteria were very far from merging or uniting. In essence, the ECOWAS members are not fully prepared for such a monetary union, come January 2020. The study suggests that more time be given to all members to improve on their economic indicators and surplus members should assist the shortage states to realize this aim. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hold over the post-1973 floating exchange rate period? Panel unit root tests provide evidence of PPP that increases with the number of observations. The strengthening of the evidence, however, is highly cyclical. When the dollar appreciates at the end of the sample, the evidence of PPP strengthens and, when it depreciates, the evidence weakens. While these patterns cannot be explained by the specifications that are normally used to model real exchange rates, the strengthening, but not the cyclical pattern, can be explained by a specification that incorporates PPP restricted structural change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to reexamine the hypothesis of long-run purchasing power parity among industrial countries under the current float using the panel data approach. We propose a new finite-sample panel data unit root test procedure that allows for a general serial correlation structure and arbitrary contemporaneous correlation in model innovations across countries. This procedure is then applied to the recently developed panel data unit root tests of Im, Pesaran, and Shin (1996) and of Maddala and Wu (1999). The test results show sufficient evidence against the unit root null for most samples. By comparing our results with the existing ones in the literature, we found that the method of assuming a restrictive serial correlation structure tends to weaken evidence against the unit root null. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents evidence on mean reversion in industrial countries' real exchange rates in a setup that accounts naturally for cross-sectional dependence, is invariant to the benchmark currency, and actually tests for the null of interest, that is, purchasing power parity. Our results are based on the Kwiatkowski et al. (1992) test for the stationarity null generalized in a multivariate random walk plus noise model by Nyblom and Harvey (2000). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents an analysis and overview of the policy of dollarization that several Latin American countries adopted or considered. This prompted many economists to ask what kind of monetary and exchange rate system is best for the economic stability of a country? Dollarization hopes to arrest large swings in inflation and interest rates by providing investors with increased credibility and less exchange rate movements. It provides an introduction to this issue that contains several articles investigating the subject.

In February 2021, the industrial confidence indicator increased by 2.4 in the EU27 and by 2.8 in the euro area (EA19). These declines follow a strong rebound in the third quarter of 2020 (+ 12.4% in the EA19 and + 11.5% in the EU27) and the sharp decreases in the second quarter of 2020 (- 11.7% in the EA19 and - 11.4% in the EU27). The consumer confidence indicator also increased by 0.8 in the EU27 and by 0.7 in the EA19 in February 2021. [Extracted from the article]

Currency crises may appear and propagate under many forms, a fact which led to their analysis through various methods. In a meta-analysis, a couple of authors (Frankel and Saravelos) review more than 80 papers of the literature on early warning systems for currency crises in which they found out that low central banks' reserves is the most reliable warning indicator. There are indicators such as "Exchange Market Pressure Index (EMPI) developed by Girton and Roper which is used to quantify pressures on a currency. This indicator is relevant whether the exchange rate is flexible, fixed, or intermediate". In case of currency risk in Africa, "the EMPI is calculated monthly as a weighted sum of both the annual change in the exchange rate against the US dollar, and the change in reserves. As such, it can be either positive or negative. A higher EMPI - indicating a depreciation and/or depletion of reserves- reflects increased tensions in the foreign exchange market". The need to predict systemic crises has led to the creation of a monitoring instrument known as the early warning system - EWS. The early warning system used for currency crises makes it possible to predict the appearance of a crisis within a well-defined period of time. Such a method may be applied both for currency crises, as well as for banking or fiscal ones. This method consists in the analysis of economic and financial indicators that facilitate the collection of information related to the potential vulnerability of the payment balance or to the nonsustainability of the exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The positive impact of remittances on development indicators of recipient countries is well documented in literature. Remittances have been a major source of economic support for dependents of migrant workers in their home countries. Nigeria receives the largest amount of remittances in Africa and the third among developing economies; receiving 21 Billion US Dollars in 2015. Large remittance inflows could however hurt the recipient economy when the flows are significant relative to the size of the recipient economy. With increasing remittance inflows relative to other capital inflows into Nigeria, remittances could have undesired outcomes, with the possibility of the exchange rates appreciation and a loss of competitiveness in the tradable sector. Using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and data covering 1981 to 2014, this paper explores the empirical evidence regarding the impact of remittances on the real exchange rate in Nigeria. DOLS improves on OLS by coping with small sample and dynamic sources of bias to determine the long-run effect/coefficients of remittances and other variables on economic development. The DOLS also deals with the potential endogeneity problem of explanatory variables. Specifically, studying the nature of the variables, there is a possibility of reverse-causality running between the exchange rate and remittance, foreign direct investment. This situation therefore can raise the possibility of endogeneity. The potential of simultaneity bias, small sample bias and endogeneity among the regressors is dealt with by the inclusion of lagged and lead value of first differences of the regressors. In this design, the dynamic OLS estimator performed well relative to other asymptotically efficient estimators Our findings suggest that remittance inflows have been associated with a rise in the real exchange rate in Nigeria. The coefficient on remittances (REMI) is positive and statistically significant. Thus, high remittance inflows have been associated with a rise in the real exchange rate in Nigeria. This implies that high remittance inflows have exerted depreciating pressure on the country's currency. Thus, contrary to the Dutch disease proposition, high remittance inflows into Nigeria have not resulted in an overvalued exchange rate but a low-valued exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]