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Subterranean habitats around the world can shelter diversified and threatened faunal communities. However, issues related to alterations in the landscape and structure of subterranean habitats still need to be better understood. Therefore, we used a multi-spatial scale analysis of land cover, land use, and cave habitats to predict the diversity of communities of subterranean invertebrates. We hypothesized that changes in land cover promote alterations in both faunal richness and composition and microhabitat diversity and that microhabitat features determined subterranean biodiversity. Sixteen limestone caves were sampled in Brazil at micro, meso, and macro scales using quadrats (1m²), transects (100 meters) as sample units inside caves and buffers with the radius of 100 and 250 meters in the surroundings of the cave entrances. Models performed showed that land cover and land use influenced cave environments, regarding both microhabitats traits and terrestrial invertebrate richness and composition. We also observed a relationship between microhabitat structure and terrestrial invertebrate richness and composition. Our results showed that deforested areas had negative effects on species richness and changed their composition, while natural areas had positive effects on microhabitat diversity. The same effects were observed for both 100 and 250 meters buffers. Invertebrate richness was negatively predicted by deforested areas while positively predicted by natural areas. Richness was also positively predicted by the combination of all microhabitat traits, and dissimilarity of fauna was influenced by microhabitat diversity in mesoscale and microscale by all microhabitat elements. The results highlight the importance of the landscape surrounding the caves to conserve the subterranean habitats and their fauna. Due to the spatial and temporal changes in the global environmental scenario, we argue the urgency of further detailed studies in fragmented landscapes to define minimum areas of protection for cave environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic changes and land usage and cover (LULC) can significantly impact the availability of water resources in a region. On the other hand, water resources are intrinsically linked to economic production. Thus, managing water resources and their know-how on how they are affected by the climate and LULC are essential in regional development. The Global Climatic Model evaluated water resource management on its effects of climatic changes (2019–2099) based on four R epresentative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the impact of changes in LULC in the Hydrographic Basin of the Cubatão River (HBCR), in Brazil. The fragilities of water resource management were observed. The scarcity of precipitation data made a direct impact on the estimated monthly average flow, as the estimated reduction was 45.4 % (RCP 2.6), 41.9 % (RCP 4.5), 43.2 % (RCP 6.0), and 41.7 % (RCP 8.5) by the end of the century. The forecast change in LULC reduces the impact on the decreased average monthly flow to 2.9 % by 2099 (RCP 2.6), 2.5 % (RCP 4.5), and 2.7 % (RCP 6.0 and 8.5). The actual evapotranspiration will be less than 2.4 % (RCP 2.6 and 6.0) and 2.3 % (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) with changes in the LULC in future scenarios. The HBCR already uses the entire status of authorized flow that will further aggravate as population growth continues. The results display faulty water resource maintenance of the basin that indeed will interfere in local economic development. • Climate change models estimate higher precipitation, but it is still insufficient. • Without the management of water resources, economic development is threatened. • The lack of instrument prevents the management of water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape change s driven by anthropogenic activities often have negative impacts on ecosystems, jeopardizing the provision of vital services that sustain biotic elements and wildlife. Predicting the effects of such transformations is crucial for developing strategies to mitigate ecological damage. This study explores the interaction of land use changes and habitat quality estimates in the Upper Paraguay River Basin in Brazil, using the InVEST Habitat Quality model to estimate spatiotemporal landscape trends and evaluate the potential impact of land use policies for the future. Under a business-as-usual scenario by 2050, potential land use changes are simulated for shaping habitat quality, habitat degradation, and habitat rarity estimates as landscape proxies for biodiversity conservation. Results show an extensive expansion of pastures through deforestation, leading to progressive habitat degradation with a significant decay in the predicted and observed habitat quality. The habitat quality index estimates show a spatial decrease from 0.78 to 0.57 for the 1989–2050 period. The same trend is observed in protected areas for the period 2019–2050, with an increase of anthropogenic land use and a decrease of the habitat quality from 0.80 to 0.57 in conservation units, and from 0.75 to 0.53 in indigenous lands. For improved conservation outcomes, this work introduces new insights for shaping environmental actions that can be flagged as sustainable land management practices and ecological perspectives towards spatial pressures at different scales. Therefore, government institutions responsible for the protection of conservation units and indigenous communities can be informed about potential land use impacts on their territories. The findings suggest that incorporating additional scenario trends and climate-related variables could be a valuable direction for future studies to extend further the modelling approaches explored in this work. • Landscape changes threaten biodiversity in Brazil's Upper Paraguay River Basin. • Habitat quality is projected to sharply decline by 2050. • Protected areas are predicted to lose 20% of natural land cover under a BAU scenario. • Conservation units and indigenous lands face high-risk from anthropogenic pressures. • A shift to sustainable and innovative agro-pastoral practices is suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beef, among all foods, has the greatest environmental impact and is associated with several chronic diseases. Brazil is one of the largest consumers of meat in the world, on par with developed countries and, most of its greenhouse gas emissions stem from deforestation and agricultural activities. Therefore, this article aims to project the economic and environmental impacts of reducing beef consumption due to changes in household preferences and an increase in beef taxes, with and without a revenue neutral mechanism (subsidies applied to food, excluding meat). To analyze this, a dynamic interregional Computable General Equilibrium model was employed, incorporating a land use change module and accounting for substitution between different food items in both consumption and production structure across regions within the Brazilian Amazon, Matopiba, and the rest of Brazil. The results show that a 40% reduction in beef consumption distributed between 2022 and 2050 could prevent deforestation on an area of approximately 65,000 km2, potentially mitigating up to 2.8 GtCO₂e (a third of the world's potential mitigation from dietary changes according to the UN). In the scenario with subsidies, the reduction in deforestation is smaller due to incentives provided to certain commodities that use pasture. Preference changes could have a virtually zero impact on GDP by 2050. Conversely, increased beef taxes could result in an overall rise in costs, leading to a negative impact on exports and GDP (subsidies only attenuate). In all scenarios, regional impacts would be heterogeneous, particularly affecting regions highly dependent on the cattle and beef sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Worldwide, important biodiversity hotspots have been threatened by land use change, placing several species at risk. Some gaps in environmental licensing system represent challenges for the nature conservation and should be further investigated. Far beyond conservation strategies, the process of legalizing land use of some countries urgently needs to be reviewed, especially in places that host biological megadiversity, such as the Atlantic Forest, southeastern Brazil. This is the first multiple case study that evaluates the use of ecological descriptors in environmental impact assessment involving vegetation in different successional stages of the Atlantic Forest. The methodology was divided into two steps, i) the selection of the reports in a public environmental agency of São Paulo State and ii) the assessment of ecological criteria inherent to the vegetation survey. This study verified a scarcity of reports presenting adequate ecological descriptors according to the law in their reports, which would improve the assessment of the natural environmental framework. Although ecological parameters appear in some reports, they do not show relevant information, even though for the characterization of the succession stages of the forest fragments, thus hiding important information and leaving aside a parameter that should be essential in the approval/disapproval of reports. Thus, we suggest that the data presented and accepted by the Public Environmental Agency of São Paulo, Brazil, did not adequately characterize the stages of ecological succession in the studied areas, thus putting some ecological patterns and processes at risk. This issue must be urgently reviewed so reports should show the real threats for biodiversity. • Ecological descriptors are underutilized in EIA in Brazil • Biodiversity is threatened by the lack of rigor in EIS and EIR • Environmental agencies must be more rigorous in the ecological criteria presented in EIA • Ecological succession must be carefully evaluated in EIA [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Native vegetation in private lands plays an important role in providing ecosystem services and safeguarding biodiversity worldwide. Legal protection rules of this vegetation are thus crucial. In Brazil, since 1934, there has been a requirement for landowners to preserve a percentage of their land covered with native vegetation, the Legal Reserve. However, the 1934 legislation applies only to arboreal vegetation, while the protection of savannahs and grasslands begins after 1965 and 1989. The reference year for the application of Legal Reserves can thus have significant impacts on the amount of native vegetation legally protected. Here we tested the effects on Legal Reserve cover in São Paulo State, considering two different legal benchmarks as starting points: 1934 and 1965. Given that the 1934 law precedes the first aerial mapping in Brazil, we developed a methodology to estimate past native vegetation cover through a probabilistic approach. The forest deficit considering 1934 as the initial point is 3% lower than the one starting with the 1965 benchmark. Comparing both scenarios, the 1934 led to a reduction of 1255 farms with Legal Reserve deficit from a total of 30,417. For both scenarios, Legal Reserve deficits were concentrated in the West, Northwest, and Mid-west regions of the state. The outcomes showed that the benchmark change does not significantly affect the total area of Legal Reserves protection, the number of farms potentially benefited by this mechanism, and the amount of native vegetation deficit. However, the use of the 1934 as an initial date for considering protection of Legal Reserve can delay the implementation of the law due to a time-consuming farm-by-farm analysis, once the probabilistic map has an intrinsic limitation for an automatic process. Thus, the environmental gains with the adoption of 1934 as the initial date do not overcome the limitations of using a probabilistic map, suggesting that effective law enforcement depends on reliable and more recent baselines, allowing semi-automated analyses. This scientific evidence can be adopted by the other Brazilian States that have not yet defined the initial legal benchmark, balancing the advantages and disadvantages of adopting the 1934 Forest Act. • We compare scenarios for the Forest Act implementation considering different past vegetation cover benchmarks (1934 and 1965). • We developed a methodology for estimating native vegetation cover in 1934, because of lack of past spatialized land-use data. • The forest deficit for the benchmark of 1934 is only 3% higher than the one of the 1965 benchmark. • Given the uncertainties of the probabilistic map, the policy implementation can be delayed if 1934 benchmark is adopted. • Even with restrictions, this is the best possible map for the 1934 benchmark and can support decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thinking, articulating, and promoting research focused on themes and issues inherent to urban spaces has posed challenges to various areas of science, particularly encouraging multidisciplinary research. Among the various studies on urban phenomena, those that reflect structural problems, whether of natural origin or resulting from human actions in space, stand out. Examples include recurrent flooding in various cities. In this regard, with the aim of correlating urban problems with the perspectives inherent to Urban Sustainability, this research aims to propose a flood model as a tool for thinking and planning space utilization. The method used consisted of creating a Flood Model, adopting an applied research approach and employing a multidisciplinary theoretical-methodological framework. This research was conducted using a medium-sized city, Montes Claros, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Geotechnologies and Geographic Information System (GIS) were utilized in constructing the Flood Model. As conclusions, the results point towards new perspectives on the conception of Urban Policies and Planning, seeking to establish guidelines to achieve the sustainability of urban spaces and to prevent flooding disasters and risks based on the structured model in this study. Additionally, it underscored the need for oversight of installation works in subdivisions and public area paving to require the construction of an appropriate drainage system tailored to the local reality, as well as the regulation of subdivisions and occupations in floodplains of watercourses, primarily through technical, management, and policy approaches. • The relevance of the combined use of multiple software for detection and proposal of a flood model; • Correlation between the computational techniques of the software used and proposals for urban sustainability; • The use of a real city (medium size) as a model for instrumenting the analyzes and application of the Software; • The application of multiple criteria and analyzes pointed models as alternatives and as evidence for the flood model; • The flood model proposed in this investigation points to a proposal to rethink urban planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gully erosion represents the most severe soil loss, with far-reaching consequences beyond the immediate site. Assessing the stability of gullies is particularly challenging in tropical regions with sandy soils and limited accurate data. Nonetheless, initiating gully inventories is a crucial first step in guiding public policies and conservation projects. In this study, we focus on the Upper Taquari River Basin (UTRB) situated on the fringes of the Brazilian Pantanal, where extensive erosion occurs in the upper regions and flooding occurs in the plains. We present the first qualitative and quantitative analysis of gullies in this region. Considering the historical context of the UTRB, it has long suffered from land mismanagement, particularly in livestock activities. Our objective was to evaluate the correspondence between gullies and land use classes in the MapBiomas Project, Brazil's most reliable non-governmental land use map, and the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR), the official information shared between landowners and public authorities. Thirteen remote-sensed indicators encompassing vegetation, water, soil, and terrain indices were assessed for 2022. Gullies were digitized through visual interpretation of a high-resolution Maxar Vivid Basic 2017 image. The classification was performed using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm, wherein pixels were classified into three classes: active, intermediate, and stable, based on the degree of vegetation cover and bare soil. The agreement of the gullies with the features of MapBiomas and CAR was also examined. The results revealed an overall accuracy of 96% and a Kappa index of 93% for the pixel classification. In the study area, 2960 gullies were digitized, with 60% classified as active features and only 2% as stable. Furthermore, the MapBiomas algorithm misclassified many pixels with active gullies as pasture. Conversely, the CAR data failed to identify gullies as areas demanding restoration. To address these issues, we recommend revising both land use maps to accurately represent the presence of erosions and improve decision-making that favors efficient conservation efforts of the region. As a further result of our actions, the method described here may prove valuable in formulating restoration plans for other tropical savanna regions. [Display omitted] • Visual interpretation and machine learning provide accurate gully mapping. • The percentage of vegetation cover is a viable metric for evaluating pixels. • Active pixels were misinterpreted in CAR and MapBiomas maps. • Include erosion class into land use platforms would help guide for prompt recovery. • Our method serves as previous inventory at severely degraded basins at low cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its low global share of direct energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (1–2%), the implications of technological transitions in the agricultural and forestry sector on the energy system have been overlooked. This paper introduces the Agriculture and Land Use Sector module part of the ModUlar energy System Environment (MUSE), a novel energy system simulation model. The study presents a generalisable method that enables energy modellers to characterise agricultural technologies within an energy system modelling framework. Different mechanisation processes were characterised to simulate intensification/extensification transitions in the sector and its wider implications in the energy and land use system aiming at providing reliable non-energy outputs similarly to those found in dedicated land use models. Additionally, a forest growth model has been integrated to explore the role of reforestation alongside decarbonisation measures in the energy system in achieving carbon mitigation pathways. To illustrate the model's capabilities, Brazil is used as case study. Outputs suggest that by 2030 under a 2 °C mitigation scenario, most of Brazil agricultural production would move from 'transitional' to 'modern' practices, improving productivity and reducing deforestation rates, at the expense of higher energy and fertiliser demand. By mid-century Brazil has the potential to liberate around 24.4 Mha of agricultural land, where large-scale reforestation could have the capacity to sequester around 5.6 GtCO 2 , alleviating mitigation efforts in the energy system, especially reducing carbon capture and storage technology investments in the industry and power sector. • A novel energy-oriented agriculture and land use systems model has been developed. • Mechanisation levels are characterised using cluster analysis and linear optimisation. • Role of reforestation alongside measures in the energy sector in Brazil are studied. • By 2050, modern mechanisation could represent 54–63% of agricultural production. • Brazil has the potential to sequester around 5.6 GtCO 2 through reforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The desertification process directly influences agricultural production and the maintenance of terrestrial life. Despite being an important agricultural centre, Brazil's semi-arid region is experiencing significant desertification. However, the relationship between land management and climate in this process is still poorly understood. This research was conducted in areas predominantly covered by the Caatinga Formation (62.2%), as well as agropastoral and pasture areas (29.9%). Our primary objective was to assess the land use change trajectories and land occupation patterns in the region while also analysing how vegetation and precipitation temporal patterns have changed from 1985 to 2019. The trends in vegetation and precipitation were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test. Land use and occupation patterns were analysed using segmented regression and Monte Carlo simulation for future forecasting in the period 2020–240 under different scenarios (pessimistic, conservative, and optimistic). The Mann-Kendall test indicated that the precipitation trends were not statistically significant. However, the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) exhibited a significant trend in areas near the São Francisco River, an important agricultural area. Land use and occupation showed breakpoints from 1990 onwards for most classes. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated that the Caatinga Formation will likely to remain the predominant vegetation class in the region for the next 21 years in all predicted scenarios. Agropastoral and pasture classes are projected to increase by 8% and 3%, respectively, while the area covered by native vegetation is expected to decrease by 7.5%. Furthermore, the predictions showed a decline in the rivers and lakes class, which may result in significant economic and social problems. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the impacts of land use change in the Brazilian semi-arid region and provide science-based information for environmental public policies. Representation of the change in land use caused by the removal of native vegetation cover for agricultural use incorrectly, resulting in soil degradation, with salinization as the main consequence. [Display omitted] • Land use changes and trends of vegetation and precipitation were analysed. • Land use scenarios were forecasted for the next 21 years (2020–2040). • A significant positive NDVI trend was observed. • Caatinga Formation will remain the predominant land cover in the area. • Agropastoral will expand for the next 21 years, surpassing the pasture cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future projections indicate an expansion for both food and energy demands, which can increase pressure on land use, while there is an urgent global need for climate change mitigation. Bioenergy is foreseen as key option to meet future energy demands and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, however its sustainability depends on locations and regional characteristics. Simultaneously, agricultural production models that co-produce food, feed, and energy offer sustainability synergies and co-benefits, but site-specific sustainability assessments of their large-scale implementation are missing. This study presents a bottom-up approach to assess spatially explicit sustainability aspects of bioenergy-livestock integrated systems (BLI) in Brazil and shed light on their contribution to future energy demands, to climate change mitigation targets, and their impacts on selected ecosystem services, including bioenergy production, climate change mitigation, reduction of food competition, biodiversity conservation, and avoided deforestation. The proposed integration considers livestock intensification and use of biofuels by-products as animal feed supplement, taking advantage of synergies between these two value chains. The expansion of the BLI system in the Center-South region of Brazil produce up to 89 billion liters of ethanol, enough to meet future domestic ethanol demands from multiple shared socioeconomic pathways and generating surpluses for export. This production takes place on 16 million hectares of pastureland within the Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning, excluding the Amazon and Pantanal biomes, and biodiversity hotspots. BLI expansion mitigate up to 250 million tonnes of CO 2 eq and generate 15 billion dollars of profits. The best locations to maximize the selected ecosystem services are west of São Paulo, east of Mato Grosso do Sul, and the south-central region of the states of Goiás. This study may encourage the formulation of enhanced public policies for the integration of bioenergy and livestock value chains and guide a sustainable large-scale deployment of BLI systems. • Bioenergy and livestock integration (BLI): co-production of food, feed and energy. • BLI systems: 89 billion liters of ethanol and 250 million tonnes of CO 2 eq mitigated. • Enough ethanol to meet future Brazilian demands and surplus to be exported. • Biomass expansion only on pastureland inside Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning. • Without land displacement and deforestation of native vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enzymatic activity is a useful indicator for the evaluation of soil biological components. However, a detailed analysis of such indicators in Brazilian soils is lacking. In this study, the activity of soil enzymes was evaluated using data from 73 publications covering 57 locations across all six biomes and eight soil orders out of the 13 that occur in Brazil. The results indicated a wide variation of enzymatic activity in soils, where the means in μg p-nitrophenol g−1 soil h−1 were 569, 116, 112, and 80 for acid phosphatase, alkaline phosphatase, β-glucosidase, and arylsulfatase, respectively. Likewise, values of 148 μg reducing sugars g−1 soil day−1 for cellulase, 57 μg triphenyl tetrazolium formazan g−1 soil day−1 for dehydrogenase, and 38 μg N-NH 4 + g−1 soil h−1 for urease were recorded. Soil organic matter and microbial biomass were the best attributes correlated with enzymatic activity, followed by clay content and pH. A more detailed analysis of the acid phosphatase, arylsulfatase, and β-glucosidase activities showed that land-use effects were more pronounced in the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado than in the Caatinga biome. Soils under non-tillage and integrated crop-livestock systems showed higher enzymatic activity than soils under conventional tillage. Soils housing higher biodiversity and delivering higher crop yields also presented higher enzymatic activity, especially in terms of arylsulfatase and β-glucosidase. Enzymatic activity has been shown to be a versatile indicator of soil quality, as it can elucidate how to achieve high-quality standards in tropical and subtropical soils. [Display omitted] • This work has evaluated seven soil enzymes across Brazil. • Effects of land use on enzymatic activity depend on enzyme type and biome. • Conservation management systems favor soil enzymatic activity. • Edaphic attributes have contrasting impacts on enzymatic activity. • Enzymes are good indicators of soil quality in tropical and subtropical environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International trade of soybeans has increased substantially over recent decades. Its environmental toll is routinely linked to deforestation and biodiversity loss. However, soybean trade also imposes a huge demand on water and land resources, in individual countries and globally. Such a burden, and its underlying sectoral drivers, is frequently overlooked within the current research and policy agenda around sustainable soybean supply chains. This study evaluates the Virtual Water Trade (VWT) and Virtual Land Trade (VLT) of global soybean trade and reveals which countries and sectors are responsible. Soybean-related VWT and VLT are estimated by combining physical import and export data and associated resource use information from 166 countries during the period 2000–2016. Over this period global virtual soybean-related virtual water and land trade grew by 298% and 250% respectively. In 2016, 812 Gm3 of water use and 41 Mha of land use was directly embodied in international soybean trade. This corresponds to one-third of water and land used to grow soybean globally. Soybean-related VWT and VLT was mainly driven by demand in China, the Netherlands and Mexico, for soybean grown in the US, Brazil and Argentina. Animal feed is responsible for around three-quarters of this resource use. A reduction in the consumption of animal products or switching to direct human consumption of soybeans would reduce the overall demand for soybean production and associated resource use. Although welcome, calls for deforestation-free soybean supply chains do not go far enough to reduce the large, global water and land demand of soybean trade. The research and policy agenda around soybean trade warrants a broader focus on water and land use and whether this represents an efficient, and logical, allocation of resources within the context of food provision and national resource security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Highlights • Specialisation at national level hampers mitigation-adaptation integration. • Local actors prioritize climate adaptation but lack of influence hinders action. • Decentralisation affects cross-level power differentials in land and climate domains. • Dominant national level communities exclude localities from policy decisions. Abstract This article proposes an innovative theoretical framework that combines institutional and policy network approaches to study multi-level governance. The framework is used to derive a number of propositions on how cross-level power imbalances shape communication and collaboration across multiple levels of governance. The framework is then applied to examine the nature of cross-level interactions in climate change mitigation and adaptation policy processes in the land use sectors of Brazil and Indonesia. The paper identifies major barriers to cross-level communication and collaboration between national and sub-national levels. These are due to power imbalances across governance levels that reflect broader institutional differences between federal and decentralized systems of government. In addition, powerful communities operating predominantly at the national level hamper cross-level interactions. The analysis also reveals that engagement of national level actors is more extensive in the mitigation and that of local actors in the adaptation policy domain, and specialisation in one of the climate change responses at the national level hampers effective climate policy integration in the land use sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Preservation/restoration policies do not significantly reduce major crop production in Brazil. • Over the next 20 years, demand and capital supply impact farming production significantly more than available land. • Total farming production output doubles in Brazil in the next 20 years, regardless of the national land-use policies applied. • Preservation policies entail reducing the production output of staple food crops compared to a business-as-usual scenario. • Preservation policies decrease cattle herd count in regions of extensive cattle ranching compared to a reference scenario. For decades Brazil has faced a dilemma based on a perceived dichotomy between natural preservation and economic progress. Since 1988, more than 446,000 km2 of native land has been cleared by clearcutting in Brazilian Legal Amazon alone, an area comparable to Sweden. In addition to the biodiversity loss associated with this activity, it is a significant global warming source since more than 72% of gross CO 2e emissions of Brazil come from land use, land-use change, forestry, and agriculture. As such, the national commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37% by 2025 and 43% by 2030, with respect to 2005 levels, is likely to be at risk. Here, a simulation model has been created to provide decision-makers with knowledge about the future of Brazilian farming production in deforestation, neutral net land-use change, and reforestation scenarios. It has been found that farming demand and capital supply impact farming production significantly more than land availability. If reforestation policies to 2005 natural coverage levels were to be implemented, there would be no significant differences in Brazilian major farming crop production to a reference scenario of continuous deforestation. However, this would be at the expense of secondary crops usually earmarked for the domestic market. For Brazil to preserve its natural coverage, it must also inevitably improve crop productivity, especially in the Northeast region, while also being cognizant of the impact on domestic food prices. Lastly, Brazil needs to have incentives to foster intensive livestock farming. These results provide evidence that can support policies towards the profitable and sustainable scenarios described in the simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic Forest is an intensely fragmented and globally important ecological hotspot. In this context, the objective of this study was to analyze the landscape ecology and submit proposals for creating ecological corridors (ECs) in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest region. Landscape ecology metrics, based on the forest fragments map, were used for the analysis. Suggested corridors were based on least-cost path analysis, considering land use, declivity, permanent preservation areas (PPAs), and forest fragment sizes. Although the predominant class sizes in the study area are small fragments, landscape ecology analysis has shown good environmental quality for fragments larger than 100 ha that do not lose their central area, even for the largest edge distances. Four ECs were proposed, with an average length of 53.86 km, average width of 5.39 km, and average area of 28,786.32 ha. Land use conflicts showed that the fragments within the corridors were situated in a matrix dominated by grassland. PPAs within the proposed corridors were dominated by misused land and did not comply with environmental legislation. The proposed corridors were efficient in using the largest fragments, which have the least edge effect and provide necessary support for most wildlife. However, we emphasize that other factors can influence the delimiting of ECs; additional studies are required to obtain more effective ECs to connect habitats. The proposed methodology can be applied to other Brazilian and global ecoregion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2000, soybean production has gained increasing importance in Brazil, particularly in Southern Amazonia and the state of Mato Grosso, the largest producer in the country. This expansion has taken place through cropland extensification into natural ecosystems in the Amazon (tropical forest) and Cerrado (savanna) biomes with land transformation and occupation activity well documented by remote sensing. Guidelines from the UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative now allow for impact assessment of land transformation and occupation within a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to estimate potential impacts to biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this study, we apply these guidelines to soybean produced in 2010 in order to complement more traditional soybean LCAs with mid- and end-point impact assessment on biodiversity, erosion potential, water purification, groundwater recharge, biotic production and climate regulation potential in each of the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. In addition to providing regionalized characterization factors of land transformation and occupation in both Mato Grosso biomes, we estimate that one tonne of soybean produced in 2010 in the Amazon had greater impacts than when produced in the Cerrado. For the Amazon, total land transformation and occupation damage was estimated at $ 532 ton −1 and $ 260 ton −1 respectively, with estimates of $ 231 ton −1 and $ 153 ton −1 for the Cerrado. The largest contributors to these damage estimates came from the change in mechanical filtration properties of the soil followed by the land's climate regulation and biotic production potentials. The impact allocation to pasture as a transitional landscape in the establishment of cropland onto natural ecosystems diminished the soybean contribution through allocation of pasture to the beef production system, further adding to the land sparing argument for future cropland expansion in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-use change has been identified, among global changes, as the main threat causing biodiversity loss, locally and regionally. This is especially true in Southern Brazil with the two main biomes (Pampa and Atlantic forest) facing high conversion rate into agricultural land to meet increasing demand for food and fuel. Within this region, we focused on epigeic biota across three land-use types (forest, grassland and Eucalyptus plantation). We used both a taxonomical and a trait-based approach to depict the changes of Epigeic Collembola assemblages across land-use types. Furthermore, we tested trait-convergence and trait-divergence across land-use types to infer how the environmental filtering and biotic interactions can affect assembly rules and collembolan community composition. Results differed according to the approach used (either taxonomical or trait-based). In general, diversity indices based on the taxonomical approach did not significantly differ between forest and grassland, whereas Eucalyptus plantation showed significantly lower values. Functional diversity was significantly higher in forest and similar between grassland and Eucalyptus plantation. Furthermore, we found both convergence and divergence of subsets of traits related to the land-use types. The trait-convergence tended to be higher in grassland sites and rather linked to sensorial traits (number of ocelli, antenna length, and trichobothria), drought tolerance traits (body size) and habitat preference traits (pigmentation level, furca development, scale, number of ocelli, antenna length, and body size). On the opposite, Trait-divergence was only linked to sensorial traits (antenna length and postantennal organ) and greatest in forest sites. Our findings showed that a trait-based approach associated with a taxonomic one provides a better understanding of the collembolan community structuring in response to biotic and abiotic changes across different land-use types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use and climate change are expected to significantly alter hydrology and consequently electricity production in countries extremely dependent on their water resources, such as Brazil. Therefore, we used the large-scale hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which we integrated with climate change and land use scenarios for the Tocantins-Araguaia Watershed (TAW) with a focus on energy production at the Tucuruí Hydroelectric Plant (THP) in the southeastern Amazon. We used daily precipitation and temperature data from two General Circulation Models (GCM), HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 with moderate (+4.5 W/m2 in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels) and severe (+8.5 W/m2) radiative forcing from carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere (Representative Concentration Pathways). For the land use and land cover change (LULCC) scenario, we replaced forest areas only with pasture, then with agriculture, then with reforestation vegetation, and finally with regenerated forest. Each LULCC period was coupled with the highest impact climate scenario found for TAW (MIROC5-RCP 8.5); thus, we investigated five scenarios and their impacts on hydropower production and revenue in THP. Our results highlight that the TAW will face a large water reduction by the end of the century, which in all scenarios will strongly impact the basin's energy production and hydro revenue. Reductions of up to 74% in annual flow and 63% in electricity generation are expected for the most pessimistic scenario (L8.5), triggering a 135% deficit per year in THP revenue. Although some land use change scenarios partially minimize the climate-driven flow decrease trend in the period of higher precipitation, there is still a dramatic reduction in flow during the dry season, thus exacerbating seasonal and inter-annual variability. [Display omitted] • 74% reductions are expected for regional flow under LULC and Climate Change. • A flow deficit of up to 98% for the winter is expected in the worst-case climate scenario. • A reduction in energy production greater than 60% is expected for all scenarios. • A revenue loss of 135% was found for the coupled climate change and LULC scenario. • In the long-term climate change may have a greater impact than regional LULC on hydropower energy and revenues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work aims to evaluate alternatives to conciliate economic growth and the Amazon preservation. For this, we measured the economic costs to preserve the Brazilian Amazon by simulating a zero-deforestation policy. We also evaluate the scenario of deforestation in Brazil in the last decades. We observed a marked growth in deforestation starting in 2014. However, in the last two years, such growth has been even more expressive, which shows the urgency of thinking in multiple ways for the problem of deforestation in the Amazon Biome. Through an economic model for Brazil, we simulated a shock on land use, which shows that there are negative effects on economic dynamism in the Amazon region and that, through a spillover effect, there may be even higher rates of greenhouse gas emissions. This work also shows that the problem of deforestation in the Amazon does not mean only the issue of reducing deforestation rates, but that it must be accompanied by a serious and plural policy aiming to reduce regional inequalities. Finally, a public and private effort is needed so that sustainable practices become more widespread and information about the importance of maintaining the forest standing and conserving the biome can be disseminated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Central Brazil, over one million square kilometers of native savanna vegetation known as Cerrado have been cleared and converted to farmland over the past forty years. A factorial experiment was designed to assess the effects of land use, litter type, soil organisms and season on litter decay in the prevailing natural and agricultural systems ( i.e. Cerrado remnants, grasslands and soybean croplands) in Mato Grosso. Decay rates were estimated by using the litterbag method. Two different mesh sizes were used to evaluate the effects of soil macro- and mesofauna (coarse mesh; 5 mm) and of soil microorganisms (fine; 20 μm). The original litter found in each land use area (Cerrado leaf-litter, Brachiaria -grass or soybean residues) was used to estimate the decay of in situ litter; a standard substrate (maize litter) was employed to evaluate the effect of the environment. Finally, the experiment was carried out during a dry and a rainy season to differentiate the effect of the other factors from the seasonal effect. We found that: (1) the effects of land use and management practice were only significant in the dry season; (2) decomposability of litter was not predicted by the initial C:N ratio of the litter types; (3) soil fauna contributed to the litter breakdown with 13–57%; (4) decay rates were overall higher in the rainy season; (5) all evaluated factors (in following order: season > soil organisms > litter type > land use) and their interactions explained about 70% of the variance in the decay rates in the study area. Change in land use affected litter decay mainly through a shift in the litter quality; the introduced plant species produced highly decomposable litters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amazon Rainforest plays major roles in global carbon and nitrogen cycling. Despite this region’s immense importance, deforestation and pasture creation are still occurring at alarming rates. In this study, we investigated the effects of land-use change on aerobic ammonia-oxidizers in primary rainforest, young and old pasture, and secondary forest in Rondônia, Brazil. Forest-to-pasture conversion decreased soil nitrate, phosphorus, and exchangeable acidity contents that recovered to pre-disturbance levels as pastures aged or were abandoned and formed secondary forest. The ammonia-oxidizing community, numerically dominated by thaumarchaea, shifted due to land-use change, both in terms of gene abundance and community structure. However, thaumarchaeal ammonia monooxygenase gene abundances did not correlate with any measured soil physicochemial parameters. Phylogenetic analyses showed that community structural changes in ammonia-oxidizing thaumarchaea are driven by a shift away from primary rainforest, old pasture, and secondary forest clusters to separate clusters for young pasture. Additionally, the nearly complete disappearance in young pasture, old pasture, and secondary forest sites of a thaumarchaeal genus, the Nitrosotalea , indicates that land-use change can have long lasting effects on large portions of the thaumarchaeal community. The results of this study can be used as a conceptual foundation for determining how ammonia-oxidizers become altered by land-use change in South American tropical forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given that sustainability of Brazilian ethanol is intrinsically associated with the effects of sugarcane expansion on land use changes, this paper aims to assess sugarcane land use using data such as sugarcane yield, water requirements, land expansion and production costs under rainfed and irrigated management. The Paranaíba basin was selected as a case study because of recent large scale expansion of sugarcane. Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) methodology was used to identify sugarcane dynamics during four crop seasons. Crop water requirements, through the water footprint methodology, cane yield, and production costs were estimated by combining the Agroecological Zone Model and CanaSoft. Results show that most sugarcane was spatially distributed in the central area of the basin, with less potential for yield gain through irrigation. This region has significant water availability issues. A 54% increase in sugarcane area (617,000–947,000 ha) was identified, mostly from the central region to the west, and to a lesser extent to the southeast. Both expansion areas represent improved edaphoclimatic (soil and climatic) conditions, hence, higher yields, lower water footprint, and lower production costs under rainfed and irrigated managements. Furthermore, there are less subbasins with water quantity problems and almost none with water quality or both quantity and quality concerns, which suggests greater possibilities for accessing water for irrigation; however, there is an environmental cost associated with this practice on average, 13 m 3 Mg −1 (Mega gram, 10 6 g) of blue water footprint. In the context of this highly water-intensive crop, sugarcane expansion in the Paranaíba basin in areas of improved soil and climatic conditions enhances the sustainability of ethanol production in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing the global challenges of climate change (CC), food security and poverty alleviation requires enhancing the adaptive capacity and mitigation potential of land use systems. To this end, Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) aims to identify land use practices that sustainably increase productivity, enhance climate change (CC) adaptation and contribute to CC mitigation. A transition towards CSA requires technical, but also socio-institutional changes, for improved smallholder agricultural systems. Such changes may be triggered by stakeholder participation processes that stimulate social learning and collective action. This article evaluates whether a role-playing game (RPG) is an effective participatory tool to encourage social learning and collective action among local stakeholders towards adoption of CSA strategies. We designed and implemented an RPG with three groups of farmers in Apuí (Southern Amazonas), evaluating the game's impact on social learning by interviewing each farmer before and after the RPG. Our findings show that the RPG induced not only technical learning, but also socio-institutional learning and engagement for collective action, though outcomes varied between different RPG sessions and among farmer participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is the main technique for evaluate the environmental impacts of product life cycles. A major challenge in the field of LCA is spatial and temporal differentiation in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods, especially impacts resulting from land occupation and land transformation. Land use characterization modeling has advanced considerably over the last two decades and many approaches have recently included crucial aspects such as geographic differentiation. Nevertheless, characterization models have so far not been systematically reviewed and evaluated to determine their applicability to South America. Given that Brazil is the largest country in South America, this paper analyzes the main international characterization models currently available in the literature, with a view to recommending regionalized models applicable on a global scale for land use life cycle impact assessments, and discusses their feasibility for regionalized assessment in Brazil. The analytical methodology involves classification based on the following criteria: midpoint/endpoint approach, scope of application, area of data collection, biogeographical differentiation, definition of recovery time and reference situation; followed by an evaluation of thirteen scientific robustness and environmental relevance subcriteria. The results of the scope of application are distributed among 25% of the models developed for the European context, and 50% have a global scope. There is no consensus in the literature about the definition of parameters such biogeographical differentiation and reference situation, and our review indicates that 35% of the models use ecoregion division while 40% use the concept of potential natural vegetation. Four characterization models show high scores in terms of scientific robustness and environmental relevance. These models are recommended for application in land use life cycle impact assessments, and also to serve as references for the development or adaptation of regional methodological procedures for Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The continuous use of fertilizers can increase the radionuclides levels in soils, and their accumulation and concentration are related to their characteristics and the various processes of use and soil occupation. Analyzing data from radiometric and pedological measurements often demands the use of more robust tools for better integration of results. This work presents the results of a study to evaluate the accumulation of 40K, in an area of the Zona da Mata region in Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil, due to the contribution of natural or artificial sources. 40K activity concentration was measured by high resolution gamma spectrometry in 108 soil samples, as well the organic matter content and particle size distribution. Results showed the 40K activity ranged from 103 to 1843 Bq.Kg−1, with the arable soils showing levels above the world average value (420 Bq.Kg−1). A higher prevalence of 40K was observed on arable soils, regardless of soil type, organic matter content, depth or texture. Agricultural activities increased of 40K levels in different degrees, depending on the type of crop used, with an accumulation factor of up to 4 times greater compared to soils not impacted by agricultural activities. The radiochemometric diagnosis maded it possible to draw up a strategic management plan to improve the management practices of family farming in order to maximize production efficiency, and promote the conservation of natural resources and environmental preservation. [Display omitted] • Use of 40K in soils as an indicator of contamination by human action in agricultural systems. • Need for the use of chemometric tools to observe the behavior of radionuclide 40K in soils. • The agricultural sector may be having harmful consequences for human health over time. • It was important to unite areas such as radiology, geology and environmental chemistry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cumulative impact assessment (CIA) is particularly challenging when several projects from different proponents are presented simultaneously for a region. The impacts of such projects are typically assessed individually, but approaches and methods commonly applied to single-project impact assessment may not be adequate to such problems. The pressure–state–response (PSR) model was adapted to tackle cumulative impacts of ten projects concentrated in an iron ore mining region in Southeastern Brazil. Using information from individual assessments, a set of indicators was built to depict current and future pressures on valued environmental and social components, to describe the current and to derive trends for the future state of the environment, and to review mitigation responses. It was found that the future state will likely be critical for both air and water quality, possibly stable for natural vegetation, due to the likely combined result of rehabilitation and offsets, and for both cultural heritage and public roads, due to likely effect of mitigation. Relying on individual assessments proved to be unsatisfactory, because key information on both the characteristics of the projects and baseline are largely inconsistent across studies and presented in very different formats. An indicator-based PSR approach to CIA is information-intense and is recommended only when databases are reliable and built on the basis of standard protocols. The need to better understand cumulative impacts and to provide corresponding, landscape or watershed scale, mitigation and management responses could be a driver for a more widespread and consistent use of standardized indicators in individual impact assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment of offset paper production in Brazil. The production system is classified into two subsystems: a forest production subsystem, which involves seedling production, soil preparation, seedling planting, forest maintenance, and wood harvesting and transport processes; and an industrial production subsystem, involving wood pulp extraction and bleaching, chemical recovery, and offset paper manufacturing processes. The environmental analysis includes the primary energy demand, environmental impact assessment, and land use indicators. The primary energy demand indicated that the largest amount of both renewable and non-renewable primary energy is consumed by the industrial production subsystem, accounting for 91.0% of the total energy demand. The potential environmental impact assessment included eight impact categories: acidification, ecotoxicity, global warming, human toxicity – cancer effects, human toxicity – non-cancer effects, nutrient enrichment, ozone depletion, and photochemical oxidation. Most of the potential impacts are attributed to the processes of pulp extraction and bleaching, and offset paper manufacturing, mainly due to the production of electricity and thermal energy. As for impacts on land use during the forest activities, a recent developed approach was applied for the regionalized assessment of impacts. Land occupation impacts on erosion resistance, physicochemical filtration, and mechanical filtration showed a reduction in the soil ecological functions, whereas groundwater recharge indicated a credit for the performance of the soil function. With a view to reducing the main life cycle impacts of the industrial production subsystem, an evaluation is made of alternative production scenarios. The best scenario was the substitution of biomass and diesel in the energy generation unit by biomass gasification and optimization of the recovery boiler. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soybean farming has brought economic development to parts of South America, as well as environmental hopes and concerns. A substantial hope resides in the decoupling of Brazil's agricultural sector from deforestation in the Amazon region, in which case expansive agriculture need not imply forest degradation. However, concerns have also been voiced about the potential indirect effects of agriculture. This article addresses these indirect effects for the case of the Brazilian Amazon since 2002. Our work finds that as much as thirty-two percent of deforestation, or the loss of more than 30,000 km 2 of Amazon forest, is attributable, indirectly, to Brazil's soybean sector. However, we also observe that the magnitude of the indirect impact of the agriculture sector on forest loss in the Amazon has declined markedly since 2006. We also find a shift in the underlying causes of indirect land use change in the Amazon, and suggest that land appreciation in agricultural regions has supplanted farm expansions as a source of indirect land use change. Our results are broadly congruent with recent work recognizing the success of policy changes in mitigating the impact of soybean expansion on forest loss in the Amazon. However, they also caution that the soybean sector may continue to incentivize land clearings through its impact on regional land markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest ecosystems are a sink of atmospheric mercury, trapping the metal in the canopy, and storing it in the forest floor after litter fall. Fire liberates a portion of this mercury; however, little is known about the long-term release of mercury post deforestation. We conducted two large-scale experiments to study this phenomenon. In upstate New York, gaseous mercury emissions from soil were monitored continually using a Teflon dynamic surface flux chamber for two-weeks before and after cutting of the canopy on the edge of a deciduous forest. In Brazil, gaseous mercury emissions from soil were monitored in an intact Ombrophilous Open forest and an adjacent field site both before and after the field site was cleared by burning. In the intact forest, gaseous mercury emissions from soil averaged −0.73 ± 1.84 ng m −2 h −1 (24-h monitoring) at the New York site, and 0.33 ± 0.09 ng m −2 h −1 (daytime-only) at the Brazil site. After deforestation, gaseous mercury emissions from soil averaged 9.13 ± 2.08 ng m −2 h −1 in New York and 21.2 ± 0.35 ng m −2 h −1 at the Brazil site prior to burning. Gaseous mercury emissions averaged 74.9 ± 0.73 ng m −2 h −1 after burning of the cut forest in Brazil. Extrapolating our data, measured over several weeks to months, to a full year period, deforested soil is estimated to release an additional 2.30 g ha −1 yr −1 of gaseous mercury to the atmosphere in the Brazilian experiment and 0.41 g ha −1 yr −1 in the New York experiment. In Brazil, this represents an additional 50% of the mercury load released during the fire itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A spatiotemporal approach was used to identify anthropogenic pressure on biomes. • The scenarios presented point to intensified pressure on biodiversity. • The region with the highest APIB values comprises 30% of the territory in all scenarios. Anthropogenic transformations, which have become intensified by land use and land cover changes and industrialization, have contributed to increased anthropogenic pressure on biodiversity. These disturbances contribute toward fragmentating habitats at different scales and putting species at risk, in addition to compromising the main biogeochemical cycles. To better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of anthropogenic pressure on Brazilian biomes, this study sought to develop a composite index to identify and analyze the degree and distribution of anthropogenic-based pressure on biodiversity, and identify internally homogeneous and heterogeneous regions regarding the dynamics of this pressure in different scenarios. To that end, we carried out an analysis of the impact of select anthropogenic factors. Specifically, we analyzed future scenarios involving land use and land cover changes in line with the global structure Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), according to the narratives SSP1/RCP 1.9, SSP2/ RCP 4.5 and SSP3/RCP 7.0. We used cluster and spatial analyses to determine the spatial dynamics of the index and, consequently, the regions most susceptible to anthropogenic pressure. The results demonstrate intensified pressure on biodiversity in areas that have already been subject to a considerable degree of disturbances, especially the Cerrado, Caatinga, and Atlantic Forest biomes. In all scenarios, the region with the highest average pressure index, i.e., Region 4, which has an average pressure index of 0.57, corresponds to 30% of Brazilian territory. This method made it possible to determine the level of pressure in each region and, subsequently, identify the regions that have been most affected by human actions in an effort to guide priority actions and local policies. However, it should be noted that this approach should be complemented with additional information, such as soil erosion, field recognition, and socioeconomic information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Global demand for steel drives extensive land-use change. [•] Steel production is correlated with mine expansion and plantation expansion. [•] Land-use changes directly impacts native vegetation. [•] Plantation expansion indirectly decreased native forest regrowth rates. [•] Mine expansion indirectly increased regional deforestation pressures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Environmental policies in 21st century enforced agriculture to use land efficiently. • Agricultural efficiency contributed to reduce deforestation rates. • Technology access is unequal distributed in Amazon municipalities. • Cattle ranching remains the most inefficient agricultural activity. Historically, agricultural production in the Amazon has been painted as the most environmentally impacting activity. In this study, we investigated the relationship between the increase in agricultural efficiency and the slowdown of deforestation rates in the past decade, correlating these data with municipalities' agricultural specialization. With the data from the 2006 and 2017 Brazilian Agricultural Census we classified municipalities according to its vegetal or animal specialization and estimated a production frontier using the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), considering a set of production factors and technological variables. Our results demonstrated that most part of municipalities have no specialization or are based in cattle ranching activities, and the overall agricultural efficiency in the Amazon municipalities grew from 69.5% in 2006 to 74.1% in 2017. The new institutional path in the 21st century contributed to slow deforestation in agricultural activities through an increase in productivity (yield/ha) in the last decade, mainly for vegetal production. Cattle ranching also increased output and efficiency, but it remains the most environmental impacting activity. However, several municipalities could not develop their agricultural production value relative to the most productive areas, suggesting that some factors —technological and productive— that could lead to output increase are not being efficiently allocated, which results in concentrating deforestation in inefficient systems and limiting the effectiveness of current policies. Technological diffusion, especially for small farmers, and private support in environmental issues could contribute to slowdown deforestation without loss of agricultural output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) and soil texture play a key role in meteorological models because they determine the vegetation and soil proprieties that interfere in the exchange of energy, moisture, and momentum between the land surface and the atmosphere. Additionally, LULC and soil texture are relevant input datasets in meteorological models affecting their results and future applicability as in weather researches and air quality modeling. Brazil has a complex and heterogeneous LU, and it has faced significant LULC changes in the past years. Therefore, this paper aims to update the LULC, using the national product MapBiomas, and soil texture data, by SoilGrids, to replace the default input data in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model for São Paulo, Brazil. Aiming to evaluate the impact of those input data on WRF simulations, five cases were simulated using WRF v4.1.3 with 1 km of grid resolution, and combinations of "Default" and "Updated" input data. Sixty-days simulations from March 15th to May 15th of 2015, covering the transition of wet to dry season, were performed and evaluated with observational data over São Paulo State. The results showed significant differences in the classifications of LULC and soil texture in the entire domain between the default and updated data. The updated data is more realistic and coherent with local characteristics, being more representative, as an example over Santos city area being correctly classified as urban and built-in updated LULC and not water, as in the default. The comparison between the modeled results with observations data has shown a similar behavior for temperature and humidity for the five cases at the monitoring stations grid cells because the LULC changes were between classes with similar land parameters, such as albedo, roughness length, and soils moisture, although the Default classes are not accurate. However, the latent and sensible heat fluxes were ways more sensitive to the LULC/soil texture changes in the WRF model. Additionally, reasonable differences were observed over the entire modeling domain for these two variables. The updated land surface data provoked low temperatures at 9h and 17h UTC, less humidity at 9h UTC, and more humidity at 17h UTC, especially in the north part of the modeling domain, the area which has faced more LULC and soil changes. The PBL height was also affected by the updated data, probably caused by the impact at heat flux over the domain, causing a variation from 30% to 70% over the modeled grid cell, which may have a higher impact on air quality modeling. Thus, it is recommended to update the land surface data for Brazil to avoid misclassification of LULC and soil texture, even if the comparison at monitoring stations has shown similar behavior between the default and updated land surface data. Additionally, updates in the land parameter inside the model are required to represent each LULC/soil class better. • Land Use/Land Cover and soil texture play a key role in meteorological models. • The updated LULC and soil texture are more accurate than the default for Brazil. • Latent and sensible heat fluxes were very sensitive to LULC/soil texture changes in WRF. • Temperature and specific humidity were less sensitive to the LULC/soil texture changes at the monitoring stations sites. • Vegetation and soil parameters inside WRF need improvements, and some physical parameterizations are not suitable for Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents a multi-agent model system to characterize land-use change dynamics. The replicable parameterization process should be useful to the development of simulation frameworks, important to environmental policy makers to analyze different scenarios during decision making process. The methodological two-fold approach intends to form a solid backbone based on: (i) the systematic and structured empirical characterization of the model; and (ii) the conceptual structure definition according to the agent-based model documentation protocol – Overview, Design concepts and Details. A multi-agent system for land-use change simulation was developed to validate the model, which is illustrated with a case study of the Brazilian Cerrado using LANDSAT ETM images. The simulation results prove the model importance with a figure of merit greater than 50%, what means the amount of correctly predicted change is larger than the sum of any type of error. The results are very good compared with nine popular peer-reviewed land change models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper studies the dynamics of land-use in the Brazilian Amazon using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. A fixed effect panel data specification is used to control for the heterogeneity in the data. Meanwhile, spatial autocorrelation is also diagnosed by a statistical methodology that allows us to split the model in subsamples (clusters) of more homogenous municipalities. The clustering analysis shows that there are three clusters whose land-use patterns are strongly different in an economical point of view. The first cluster identifies municipalities dedicated to logging, natural resources exploitation and slash-and-burn cultures; the second cluster shows a more diversified agriculture; while the third cluster presents very developed intensive agriculture municipalities. Another contribution of this article relies on the assessment of contemporaneous causal relation among distinct land-uses areas. This new approach allows us to evaluate the dynamics relations arisen from unexpected innovations in the process of soil occupation. The impulse response functions (IRF) and the forecast error variance decompositions (FEVD) generate the following results: (1) in the opposition direction of previous studies, we find that the demand for cropping does not require to clear new areas of forest.; (2) contrary to previous studies we do not find indication that cattle ranching is the primary driver of deforestation; (3) the impact of a shock of pasture land on itself is virtually null at the initial stages, but increases over time, not requiring to clear extra areas of forest land but rather competing with crop land; (4) it seems that if not for all the Amazon Basin, at least in one cluster, cattle ranching and cropping could be competitive activities; and (5) we find out that in the long run pasture innovation is responsible for the major percent of the forecast error concern all land uses. It probably means that the destiny of distinct categories of land, in cluster one, is endogenously determine by activities connected to cattle. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In order to analyse the impact of land use change, it is particularly important to know how organisms use resources distributed across a heterogeneous landscape. The main objective of this study is to analyse the potential impact of land use change on bird and mammal fauna, by using a coupled model approach. The CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model has been applied to obtain the spatial pattern of land use change for a scenario with soybean expansion in the Cerrado of Maranhão State in Brazil. These land use change maps were used as the input for the LEDESS (Landscape Ecological Decision and Evaluation Support System) model to evaluate the impact of habitat fragmentation on mammal and bird species. The scenarios demonstrated that high quality habitat for all studied species will be lost in the future when current trends in agricultural expansion continue, but these changes will have species-specific impacts. The most relevant ecological impact under the explored scenarios was habitat fragmentation expressed by the increase the number of habitat clusters. The coupled model approach of LEDESS and CLUE made it possible to project the spatial impact of soybean expansion on habitat dynamics in the studied region. This model approach can help to design effective ecological infrastructure to facilitate species survival and to implement an effective habitat network in the Balsas region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of agricultural technical efficiency on the propensity of farmers to convert natural land into agricultural plots, i.e., to deforest, in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). A two-step econometric approach is adopted. A bootstrapped translog stochastic frontier that is a posteriori checked for functional consistency is used to assess technical efficiency and these estimates are put into a land-use model to assess the impact of productivity on deforestation. Analysis of agricultural census tract data suggests that technical efficiency has a U-shaped effect: both less and more efficient farms use more land for their agricultural activities and so have a positive effect on deforestation. However, the majority of farms in the BLA are on the ascendant slope, so that efficiency implies more deforestation in the BLA. The poor environmental valuation of the Brazilian forest, the uneven land distribution, and the problem of the de facto openly accessed forested and “unproductive” lands in the BLA could explain the U-shaped effect of technical efficiency on the conversion of forested land into agricultural land. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: There is a move towards large-scale planting of perennial bioenergy crops in many countries to help reduce Green House Gas emissions, whilst still meeting energy demand. However, the implications of such wholesale land use change have yet to be fully understood which raises some concerns over the strategy. This paper identifies, through literature review, that significant social, economic and environmental impacts might be expected from land use change in two different parts of the world, São Paulo, Brazil, where sugarcane is the predominant perennial biomass crop, and England where miscanthus and short rotation coppice are likely to predominate. In order to examine the extent to which these impacts can be addressed in decision-making, the paper develops a framework for testing the effectiveness of environmental assessment practice in these two regions, and applies it to both. The conclusion is that, whilst tools which can address sustainability impacts in decision-making exist, the legal framework in England precludes their application for the majority of land use change, and in Brazil there is incomplete consideration of social and economic impacts at the strategic level. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Brazil is experiencing a surge in planting of sugar cane crops driven by internal markets and external policy drivers for biofuels. The current expectation is for the expansion of these crops to continue. This creates concern over the extent to which the full implications of large scale land use change are currently being considered by decision-makers. Using the State of São Paulo as a case study (as it accounts for the majority of sugar cane grown in Brazil), a comparison was made of the impacts identified in Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) and Preliminary Environmental Reports (PERs), which have to be submitted for approval of most new sugar cane activities, with significant impacts known to be associated with sugar cane activities derived from literature review. The results from a review of 32 EISs and PERs (30% of the population) indicated that whilst some impacts were well covered by the sample (water and soil pollution, and air emissions) energy balance and Green House Gas emissions and food security had very limited consideration, and water resources, residues, labour conditions and social responsibility were only partially covered. Environmental Impact Assessment is constrained by its environmental advocacy role and its application to the project level only. This study highlights its limitations in the context of assessment of land use change which demands more strategic consideration. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We use spatially efficient logit models to explore the role of economic incentives on the expansion of cropland in the Mato Grosso region between 2001 and 2004. An empirical measure for agricultural economic rent is used to quantify the desirability of a particular plot of land, which previous research proxies with variables such as distance to roads or urban areas, and simple climatic and edaphic variables. Results indicate that the measure for economic rent provides additional information and explanatory power to one of the most commonly used proxies, distance to roads. As predicted by economic theory, it is not simply access or variation in transportation costs that drives the spatial determinants of agricultural expansion, but the expected total returns from the venture. This suggests that spatially explicit rent models can be used to simulate the location and quantity of land-use change in an economically consistent framework. Such a framework lays the foundation for an enhanced methodology that can evaluate the ability of fiscal policy levers to influence the location of agricultural conversion with the ultimate aim of balancing economic and environmental goals. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A Teflon® dynamic flux chamber was used to characterize Gaseous Elemental Mercury (GEM) flux from forested and open field soils in a highly changing environment in Rondônia State, western Amazon. We simultaneously analyzed meteorological parameters at the soil level relating GEM fluxes to soil temperature, air humidity, soil moisture, solar radiation, and speed and wind direction. We also examined variations of atmospheric GEM concentration. GEM fluxes during the day and night in the open field site were significantly different (17±14ngm−2 h−1 and 0.9±1.9ngm−2 h−1, for day and night, respectively), but were similar within the forest site (4.8±1.4ngm−2 h−1 and 4.4±1.8ngm−2 h−1 for day and night periods, respectively). A comparison between 24-h periods averages in the two sites showed much larger emission from the open field site. GEM fluxes at the open field site were positively correlated with soil moisture, solar irradiation and soil temperature and inversely correlated with air humidity. At the forest site GEM fluxes showed no correlation with meteorological variables. At the open field site GEM concentrations significantly correlated with GEM flux, at least during the day. At night in the open field site and during the day and night at the forest site no correlation was found between GEM fluxes and GEM concentrations in the ambient air. Higher emissions from the open field site support earlier studies showing larger Hg remobilization following forest conversion to pasture. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper discusses the availability of biomass in Brazil to supply charcoal to the steel industry on the bases of an initial global assessment of land potentially available for plantations and of Brazilian data that allows refining the assessment and specifying the issue of practical availability. Technical potentials are first assessed through a series of simple rules against direct competition with agriculture, forests and protected areas, and of quantitative criteria, whether geo-climatic (rainfall), demographic (population density) or legal (reserves). Institutional, social and economic factors are then identified and discussed so as to account for the practical availability of Brazilian biomass through six criteria. The ranking of nine Brazilian States according to these criteria brings out the necessary trade-offs in the selection of land for plantations that would efficiently supply charcoal to the steel industry. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Air pollution is a major global public health problem. The situation is most severe in low- and middle-income countries, where pollution control measures and monitoring systems are largely lacking. Data to quantify the exposure to air pollution in low-income settings are scarce. In this study, land use regression models (LUR) were developed to predict the outdoor nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) concentration in the study area of the Western Region Birth Cohort in São Paulo. NO 2 measurements were performed for one week in winter and summer at eighty locations. Additionally, weekly measurements at one regional background location were performed over a full one-year period to create an annual prediction. Three LUR models were developed (annual, summer, winter) by using a supervised stepwise linear regression method. The winter, summer and annual models explained 52 %, 75 % and 66 % of the variance (R2) respectively. Cross-holdout validation tests suggest robust models. NO 2 levels ranged from 43.2 μg/m3 to 93.4 μg/m3 in the winter and between 28.1 μg/m3 and 72.8 μg/m3 in summer. Based on our annual prediction, about 67 % of the population living in the study area is exposed to NO 2 values over the WHO suggested annual guideline of 40 μg/m3 annual average. In this study we were able to develop robust models to predict NO 2 residential exposure. We could show that average measures, and therefore the predictions of NO 2, in such a complex urban area are substantially high and that a major variability within the area and especially within the season is present. These findings also suggest that in general a high proportion of the population is exposed to high NO 2 levels. [Display omitted] • Measured NO 2 in São Paulo largely exceed the concentrations recommended by WHO. • Especially in winter the NO 2 measurements were high (43.2 μg/m3 to 93.4 μg/m3). • NO 2 LUR models explains 52 %, 75 % and 66 % (winter-summer-annual) of variance (R2). • 67 % of the residential population is exposed to annual NO 2 levels over WHO guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the question of whether reducing transport costs in the Amazon has lead to increased land clearing. Data on land clearing, transport costs and other related variables from 1975 to 1995 is analyzed using econometric approaches that exploit the dynamic time series dimension of the data to control for possible omitted variables and endogeneity. Our results suggest that the impact of changes in transport costs on clearing depends greatly on the initial land use. Specifically, we find that in regions where a greater proportion of the land is already cleared, reducing transport costs can lessen the rate of future clearing. On the other hand, reducing transport costs through areas that have seen little human activity is more likely to increase deforestation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The process of human occupation in Brazilian Amazonia is heterogeneous in space and time. The goal of this paper is to explore intra-regional differences in land-use determining factors. We built spatial regression models to assess the determining factors of deforestation, pasture, temporary and permanent agriculture in four space partitions: the whole Amazon; the Densely Populated Arch (southern and eastern parts of the Amazon), where most deforestation has occurred; Central Amazon, where the new frontiers are located; and Occidental Amazon, still mostly undisturbed. Our land-use data combines deforestation maps derived from remote sensing and 1996 agricultural census. We compiled a spatially explicit database with 50 socio-economic and environmental potential factors using 25km×25km regular cells. Our results show that the concentrated deforestation pattern in the Arch is related to the diffusive nature of land-use change, proximity to urban centers and roads, reinforced by the higher connectivity to the more developed parts of Brazil and more favorable climatic conditions, expressed as intensity of the dry season. Distance to urban centers was used as a proxy of accessibility to local markets, and was found to be as important as distance to roads in most models. However, distance to roads and to urban centers does not explain intra-regional differences, which were captured by other factors, such as connection to national markets and more favorable climatic conditions in the Arch. Agrarian structure results show that areas in which the land structure is dominated by large and medium farms have a higher impact on deforestation and pasture extent. Temporary and permanent agriculture patterns were concentrated in areas where small farms are dominant. We conclude that the heterogeneous occupation patterns of the Amazon can only be explained when combining several factors related to the organization of the productive systems, such as favorable environmental conditions and access to local and national markets. Agrarian structure and land-use analysis reinforced this conclusion, indicating the heterogeneity of land-use systems by type of actor, and the influence of the agrarian structure on land-use patterns across the region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Brazil is an active player in the CDM business, even playing host to the first CDM project ever registered. Although the majority of the CDM actions which have been developed to date in Brazil are in the energy sector, an analysis of Brazil''s emissions profile demonstrates that the energy sector does not have a significant share of the country''s emissions. Rather that 25% and 56% of the emissions stem from Agriculture and Land Use activities, respectively. In the light of this profile, this paper re-evaluates Brazil''s national Green House Gas (GHG) matrix, and attempts to highlight the potential of the Land Use and Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) CDM projects. An analysis of potential actions for improved penetration of LULUCF projects is presented, alongside key recommendations for future actions. This paper outlines how and why LULUCF projects can become the cornerstone of sustainable development policy in the North and North East region of Brazil, two of the main less developed regions in the country, totalling 62% of the country''s land mass. A focus is made on three A/R projects recently development in Brazil. Through these case studies, an attempt is made to outline potential guidelines for future actions. This paper demonstrates that A/R projects have a significant potential impact on local and rural development in Brazil today. They have the potential to promote the sustainable use of forestry and soil resources. From the analysis it is clear that satisfying local community needs and commitments is a necessary prerequisite to achieving a situation where the risks associated with the issuing of the CER''s (Certified Emission Reductions) could be better managed and also in line with enhanced support from the national authorities (as part of local development plans). The paper concludes that Brazil has significant potential to develop LULUCF CDM projects and that these projects can promote sustainable development through direct impact on the sustainable livelihoods of local communities over the long-term. It is recommended, in line with Brazil''s current emission profile, that to realise this potential it is necessary to design a new relationship model between the key players involved in the CDM process: government agents, local stakeholders, national academia and private parties. Further it is necessary for the Federal Government to foster the LULUCF projects. Supporting actions include defining clear policies that minimise risk and/or reduce perceived risk and the promotion of multi-stakeholder involvement in the CDM project development process. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This work reports on the effect of land use change on Hg distribution in Amazon soils. It provides a comparison among Hg concentrations and distribution along soil profiles under different land use categories; primary tropical forest, slashed forest prior to burning, a 1-year silviculture plot planted after 4 years of forest removal and a 5-year-old pasture plot. Mercury concentrations were highest in deeper (60–80cm) layers in all four plots. Forest soils showed the highest Hg concentrations, ranging from 128ngg−1 at the soil surface to 150ngg−1 at 60–80cm of depth. Lower concentrations were found in pasture soils, ranging from 69ngg−1 at the topsoil to 135ngg−1 at 60–80cm of depth. Slashed and silviculture soils showed intermediate concentrations. Differences among plots of different soil-use categories decreased with soil depth, being non-significant below 60cm of depth. Mercury burdens were only statistically significantly different between pasture and forest soils at the topsoil, due to the large variability of concentrations. Consequently, estimated Hg losses were only significant between these two land use categories, and only for the surface layers. Estimated Hg loss due to forest conversion to pasture ranged from 8.5mgm−2 to 18.5mgm−2, for the first 20cm of the soil profile. Mercury loss was comparable to loss rates estimated for other Amazon sites and seems to be directly related to Hg concentrations present in soils. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Sensitive taxa respond to deforestation in a non-linear manner. • Sensitive taxa more sensitive to catchment forest loss than to riparian forest loss. • Sensitive taxa offer early-warning signals of ecological damage from forest loss. • Brazil needs expanded forested riparian & catchment protections. Deforestation is a major threat globally, but especially in tropical regions because they are biodiversity strongholds and carbon storehouses. Some studies have reported changes in species richness and composition in lotic ecosystems with increased forest-loss in their catchment, presumably resulting from the replacement of sensitive taxa by more resistant or tolerant taxa. Also, sensitive taxa respond to deforestation in a non-linear manner and fish and macroinvertebrates have different sensitivities to landscape pressures. Therefore, it is useful to determine the effects of forest-loss on widespread sensitive or threshold taxa in aquatic ecosystems. We used Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN) to assess forest-loss and land use history impacts in 92 eastern Amazonian stream sites. We determined TITAN peak-change thresholds for fish at 1% and 6% of forest-loss at total-catchment and local-riparian spatial extents, respectively, and at 2% and 40% of land-use intensity change at total-catchment and local-riparian spatial extents, respectively. For macroinvertebrates, TITAN peak-change thresholds were 1% and 11% of forest loss at total-catchment and local-riparian spatial extents, respectively, and at 3% of land-use intensity change for both total-catchment and local-riparian spatial extents. Because of these thresholds, inherent ecoregional variability and key literature, we have three major recommendations. 1) Logging should be prohibited in riparian reserves that are at least 100-m wide on each side of headwater streams and in a network of catchments across all biomes and as many landscape types as possible. 2) An ecologically and statistically rigorous monitoring program with standard methods should be implemented to assess and regulate land uses better. 3) Conservation planning areas should consider aquatic biota as well as terrestrial biota. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]