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Emissions-intensive, trade-exposed (EITE) industries must decarbonize to limit global warming to 1.5°C. This study explores how policy stringency and regional variability impact EITE industrial decarbonization. It uses Canada as a case study due to its heterogeneous industrial sector and high regional resource variability. The study has two scenarios: one with global climate action where the world pushes to limit warming to 1.5°C, and one where Canada acts to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and the rest of the world lags. The scenarios differ in three ways: the global price of oil, the pace of technological change for low emission technologies, and domestic climate policy. In the global action scenario, a carbon price of $430USD2020 was needed to achieve 75% decarbonization of EITE industries by 2050. In our global inaction scenario, EITE industries only decarbonize 25%, as domestic climate policy considered international competition and the risk of industrial shutdown. If competitiveness concerns persist as simulated in this scenario, Canada is highly unlikely to achieve deep industrial decarbonization by 2050. The results also show that regional variability plays a significant role in low emissions technology adoption. While all regions will need targeted innovation and commercialization support as well as market uptake mechanisms, we find that relative advantages and disadvantages in terms of resource availability and industrial mix play an important role in how regional decarbonization occurs. For instance, regions with inexpensive local fossil fuels and ready geology suitable for CO2 storage have a high uptake of carbon capture and storage. Regions with access to abundant hydroelectricity rely more on electrification as a decarbonization pathway. Regions with no relative resource advantages are at greater risk for industrial shutdown due to the higher cost of decarbonization. Achieving national deep decarbonization of EITE industries in Canada or elsewhere is highly unlikely without global climate action due to competitiveness concerns. Policymakers interested in addressing competitiveness concerns might do so either through policy mechanisms that support the uptake of low emission technologies, mechanisms that penalize regions without decarbonization policy, or both. Policymakers should consider relative regional advantages and disadvantages to EITE decarbonization by designing policies that account for industrial heterogeneity and regional resource availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Substitution factors for forest products for the Canadian context were developed. • Substitution factors ranging from 0.51 to 0.91 tC/tC were found. • They will lead to more accurate assessments of the forest GHG mitigation potential. • These factors will help governments to manage forest and fight climate change. Evaluating the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector requires a holistic approach based on forest carbon (C) sequestration, C storage in harvested wood products (HWP) and substitution on markets. High uncertainty is associated with substitution factors, that express avoided fossil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the use of forest-based products in replacement of GHG-intensive materials and fossil fuels. Few studies have focused on the development of substitution factors in Canada, resulting in the use of unrepresentative generic data. Here, we provide a framework to reduce uncertainties related to substitution factors for primary wood products in a Canadian context. A life cycle assessment framework is used to quantify fossil GHG emissions for a baseline and a wood-intensive scenario. For solid product substitution, we focused on the construction sector and analyzed a range of innovative wood buildings with steel and reinforced concrete as alternative materials. We found non-weighted averages of 0.80 tC/tC for sawnwood and 0.81 tC/tC for panels. For energy substitution, we analyzed cases with different specifications on biomass product, facility type and alternative fossil fuel source in non-residential heat production and biofuel transportation sectors. We found a non-weighted average of 0.80 tC/tC for non-residential heat production and 0.51 tC/tC for biofuel transportation, that can be interpreted as 0.91 tC/tC for heavy fuel oil, 0.69 tC/tC for light fuel oil and 0.68 tC/tC for natural gas substitution. These results provide a benchmark for substitution factors in Canada, to help guide forest management strategies for climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Soil organic carbon (SOC) stabilities were studied in two agroforestry systems. • We studied hedgerow and shelterbelt systems and their component land-uses (cropland vs forest). • The biological stability of SOC was higher in hedgerow than in shelterbelt system. • The biological stability of SOC was higher in cropland than in forest land-use. • Agroforestry system by land-use interactively affected the thermal stability of SOC. Agroforestry systems play important roles in carbon (C) sequestration in western Canada. However, the effect of agroforestry system type and their component land-uses (forested area and cropland) on soil organic C (SOC) stability is poorly understood. We studied SOC stability in surface soils from two agroforestry systems (shelterbelt system and hedgerow system) and their component land-uses (forested area and cropland) in western Canada. A 61-day laboratory incubation was used to assess SOC biological stability, and compared to thermal stability measured during ramped combustion. The shelterbelt system had a lower biological stability than the hedgerow system as indicated by the higher cumulative soil respiration and SOC loss during incubation. Cumulative respiration and SOC loss during incubation in the forested area was 1.63 and 1.57 times that in the cropland, indicating a lower SOC biological stability in the former. Thermal stability indicators, CO 2 -T 50 (the temperature at which half of the CO 2 is produced), DSC-T 50 (the temperature at which half of the exothermic energy of the SOC is released) and ROI (return on energy investment) were influenced by the interactive effects of the agroforestry system by land-use, while TG-T 50 (the temperature at which half of the exothermic mass is lost) and Ed (energy density) were influenced by land-use and the interactive effects of agroforestry system by land-use. Hedgerow cropland had a higher SOC thermal stability (higher TG-T 50) than the hedgerow forested area, while there was no difference among shelterbelt cropland, and the forested areas of shelterbelt and hedgerow system. We conclude that planting trees on agricultural land to form agroforestry systems alters SOC biological and thermal stabilities, and the hedgerow system may have a more stable SOC than the shelterbelt system, thus, maintaining the hedgerow system may enhance C stability, promote C sequestration and climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improved land stewardship is necessary for climate change mitigation. As such, actions are needed to increase carbon (C) sinks and reduce C emissions from land use activities. Residual materials with fertilizing capacity can be used to reconstruct severely degraded soils and recreate a sustainable vegetation cover, leading to reductions in atmospheric CO 2 levels. We studied the temporal dynamics of CO 2 sequestration potential in soils reconstructed with 1200 Mg ha−1 biosolids along a young chronosequence ranging from 0 to 7 years after initiating reclamation of a decommissioned asbestos mine in southern Québec, Canada. We measured in situ soil CO 2 fluxes, soil C pools and soil physicochemical properties. Since bacterial communities are highly responsive to soil physicochemical properties, we also analyzed both their diversity and community structure. The age since soil reclamation did not have a clear effect on soil properties, but it exerted greater control over soil C fluxes and soil bacterial community diversity and structure. Our results suggest large C fluxes to the atmosphere within the first year following soil reconstruction, but soils constitute a stable C pool thereafter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is generally accepted that land use and land management practices impact climate change through sequestration of carbon in soils, but modulation of surface energy budget can also be important. Using Landsat data to characterize cropland albedos in Canada's three prairie soil zones, this study estimates the atmospheric carbon equivalent drawdown of albedo radiative forcing for three management practices: 1) moving from conventional tillage to no-till, 2) eliminating summer fallow in crop rotations, and 3) growing crops with higher albedos. In a 50-year time horizon, conversion from conventional tillage to no-till results in a total equivalent atmospheric C O 2 (C O 2 -eq) drawdown of 1.0–1.5 kg m − 2 , and conversion from summer fallow to crops results in C O 2 -eq drawdown of 1.1–2.4 kg m − 2 . Conversion of summer fallow to crops results in different magnitudes of C O 2 -eq drawdown depending on specific crops. Lentils, peas, and canola have relatively higher albedo than that of spring wheat and flax; hence, a larger magnitude of C O 2 -eq drawdown results when they replace summer fallow in the rotation. For the management changes from 1990 to 2019 for the whole Canadian Prairies, albedo changes induced a C O 2 -eq drawdown of about 179.3 ± 20.9 Tg due to increased area of no-till, and 101.6 ± 9.5 Tg due to reduced area under fallow. The study shows that the magnitudes of C O 2 -eq drawdown due to albedo change are comparable to that due to soil carbon sequestration. Therefore, it is important to account for cropland albedo changes in assessing the potential of agricultural management practices to mitigate climate change. • Agricultural practices modify surface albedos and induce radiative forcing. • Albedo radiative forcing is assessed using carbon equivalent metrics. • Reducing summer fallow and tillage intensity induces negative radiative forcing. • Large scale conversion of crops causes albedo radiative forcing. • Cropland albedo change should be considered in climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]