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Ouranos is a nonprofit consortium launched in 2002 with the mandate to provide climate services to its governmental, academic, and private partners. These services have focused on the impacts of climate change in the province of Québec, the identification of vulnerabilities and opportunities associated with the future climate, and the assessment of adaptation options. This paper discusses the experience and insights acquired at Ouranos over the last 10 years in building climate scenarios in support of these impact and adaptation studies. Most of this work is aimed at making climate science intelligible and useful for end users, and the paper describes approaches to developing climate scenarios that are tailored to the needs and level of climate expertise of different user categories. The experience has shown that a group of professionals dedicated to scenario construction and user support is a key element in the delivery of effective climate services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Canada, flooding is the most common and costly natural hazard. Flooding events significantly impact communities, damage infrastructures and threaten public security. Communication, as part of a flood risk management strategy, is an essential means of countering these threats. It is therefore important to develop new and innovative tools to communicate the flood risk with citizens. From this perspective, the use of story maps can be very effectively implemented for a broad audience, particularly to stakeholders. This paper details how an interactive web-based story map was set up to communicate current and future flood risks in the Petite-Nation River watershed, Quebec (Canada). This web technology application combines informative texts and interactive maps on current and future flood risks in the Petite-Nation River watershed. Flood risk and climate maps were generated using the GARI tool, implemented using a geographic information system (GIS) supported by ArcGIS Online (Esri). Three climate change scenarios developed by the Hydroclimatic Atlas of Southern Quebec were used to visualize potential future impacts. This study concluded that our story map is an efficient flood hazard communication tool. The assets of this interactive web mapping tool are numerous, namely user-friendly mapping, use and interaction, and customizable displays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater recharge (GWR) is a strategic hydrologic variable, and its estimate is necessary to implement sustainable groundwater management. This is especially true in a global warming context that highly impacts key winter conditions in cold and humid climates. For this reason, long-term simulations are particularly useful for understanding past changes in GWR associated with changing climatic conditions. However, GWR simulation at the regional scale and for long-term conditions is challenging, especially due to the limited availability of spatially distributed calibration data and due to generally short observed time series. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the relevance of using a water budget model to understand long-term transient and regional-scale GWR in cold and humid climates where groundwater observations are scarce. The HydroBudget model was specifically developed for regional-scale simulations in cold and humid climate conditions. The model uses commonly available data such as runoff curve numbers to describe the study area, precipitation and temperature time series to run the model, and river flow rates and baseflow estimates for its automatic calibration. A typical case study is presented for the southern portion of the Province of Quebec (Canada, 36 000 km 2). With the model simultaneously calibrated on 51 gauging stations, the first GWR estimate for the region was simulated between 1961 and 2017 with very little uncertainty (≤ 10 mm/yr). The simulated water budget was divided into 41 % runoff (444 mm/yr), 47 % evapotranspiration (501 mm/yr), and 12 % GWR (139 mm/yr), with preferential GWR periods during spring and winter (44 % and 32 % of the annual GWR, respectively), values that are typical of other cold and humid climates. Snowpack evolution and soil frost were shown to be a key feature for GWR simulation in these environments. One of the contributions of the study was to show that the model sensitivity to its parameters was correlated with the average air temperature, with colder watersheds more sensitive to snow-related parameters than warmer watersheds. Interestingly, the results showed that the significant increase in precipitation and temperature since the early 1960s did not lead to significant changes in the annual GWR but resulted in increased runoff and evapotranspiration. In contrast to previous studies of past GWR trends in cold and humid climates, this work has shown that changes in past climatic conditions have not yet produced significant changes in annual GWR. Because of their relative ease of use, water budget models are a useful approach for scientists, modelers, and stakeholders alike to understand regional-scale groundwater renewal rates in cold and humid climates, especially if they can be easily adapted to specific study needs and environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To monitor the adoption of climate change adaptive behaviors in the population, public health authorities have to conduct national surveys, which can help them target vulnerable subpopulations. To ensure reliable estimates of the adoption of these preventive behaviors, many data collection methods are offered by polling firms. The aim of this study was to compare a telephone survey with a web survey on Lyme disease with regard to their representativeness.Methods: The data comes from a cross-sectional study conducted in the Province of Québec (Canada). In total, 1003 people completed the questionnaire by telephone and 956 filled in a web questionnaire. We compared the data obtained from both survey modes with the census data in regard to various demographic characteristics. We then compared the data from both samples in terms of self-reported Lyme disease preventive behaviors and other theoretically associated constructs. We also assessed the measurement invariance (equivalence) of the index of Lyme disease preventive behaviors across the telephone and web samples.Results: Findings showed that neither the telephone nor the web panel modes of data collection can be considered more representative of the target population. The results showed that the proportion of item non-responses was significantly higher with the web questionnaire (5.6%) than with the telephone survey (1.3%), and that the magnitude of the differences between the two survey modes was nil for 19 out of the 30 items related to Lyme disease, and small for 11 of them. Results from invariance analyses confirmed the measurement invariance of an index of adaptation to Lyme disease, as well as the mean invariance across both samples.Conclusions: Our results suggested that both samples provided similar estimates of the level of adaptation to Lyme disease preventive behaviors. In sum, the results of our study showed that neither survey mode was superior to the other. Thus, in studies where adaptation to climate change is monitored over time, using a web survey instead of a telephone survey could be more cost-effective, and researchers should consider doing so in future surveys on adaptation to climate. However, we recommend conducting a pretest study before deciding whether to use both survey modes or only one of them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projected climate change effects on hydrology are investigated for the 2041-60 horizon under the A2 emission scenarios using a multimodel approach over two snowmelt-dominated catchments in Canada. An ensemble of 105 members was obtained by combining seven snow models (SMs), five potential evapotranspiration (PET) methods, and three hydrological model (HM) structures. The study was performed using highresolution simulations from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM-15 km) driven by two members of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3). This study aims to compare various combinations of SM-PET-HM in terms of their ability to simulate streamflows under the current climate and to evaluate how they affect the assessment of the climate change-induced hydrological impacts at the catchment scale. The variability of streamflow response caused by the use of different SMs (degree-day versus degree-day/energy balance), PET methods (temperature-based versus radiation-based methods), and HM structures is evaluated, as well as the uncertainty due to the natural climate variability (CRCM intermember variability). The hydroclimatic simulations cover 1961-90 in the present period and 2041-60 in the future period. The ensemble spread of the climate change signal on streamflow is large and varies with catchments. Using the variance decomposition on three hydrologic indicators, theHMstructure was found to make the most substantial contribution to uncertainty, followed by the choice of the PET methods or natural climate variability, depending on the hydrologic indicator and the catchment. Snow models played a minor, almost negligible role in the assessment of the climate change impacts on streamflow for the study catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prioritizing resources for optimal responses to an ever growing list of existing and emerging infectious diseases represents an important challenge to public health. In the context of climate change, there is increasing anticipated variability in the occurrence of infectious diseases, notably climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases. An essential step in prioritizing efforts is to identify what considerations and concerns to take into account to guide decisions and thus set disease priorities. This study was designed to perform a comprehensive review of criteria for vector-borne disease prioritization, assess their applicability in a context of climate change with a diverse cross-section of stakeholders in order to produce a baseline list of considerations to use in this decision-making context. Differences in stakeholder choices were examined with regards to prioritization of these criteria for research, surveillance and disease prevention and control objectives. A preliminary list of criteria was identified following a review of the literature. Discussions with stakeholders were held to consolidate and validate this list of criteria and examine their effects on disease prioritization. After this validation phase, a total of 21 criteria were retained. A pilot vector-borne disease prioritization exercise was conducted using PROMETHEE to examine the effects of the retained criteria on prioritization in different intervention domains. Overall, concerns expressed by stakeholders for prioritization were well aligned with categories of criteria identified in previous prioritization studies. Weighting by category was consistent between stakeholders overall, though some significant differences were found between public health and non-public health stakeholders. From this exercise, a general model for climate-sensitive vector-borne disease prioritization has been developed that can be used as a starting point for further public health prioritization exercises relating to research, surveillance, and prevention and control interventions in a context of climate change. Multi-stakeholder engagement in prioritization can help broaden the range of criteria taken into account, offer opportunities for early identification of potential challenges and may facilitate acceptability of any resulting decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Monitoring of fur-bearing species populations is relatively rare due to their low densities. In addition to catch data, trappers' experience provides information on the ecology and status of the harvested species. Fisher (Pekania pennanti) and American marten (Martes americana) are mustelids that are sensitive to forest management and therefore considered to be ecological indicators of forest health. Fisher populations have increased in eastern North America since the early 2000s and this could have resulted in a northeastern extension of the species' range and increased overlap with marten's range. Moreover, habitats of both species are subject to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The objective of this study was to document the knowledge held by local trappers in the northern area of sympatry between fisher and marten to identify factors that could explain variation in populations of the two species and interactions between them. Method: Forty-one semi-directed interviews with Indigenous and non-Indigenous trappers in the Abitibi- Témiscamingue region of western Quebec (Canada), at the northern limit of the overlapping ranges of the two mustelid species. Results: Trappers highlighted the lack of exclusivity of marten and fisher to coniferous forests, although marten is more closely associated with them than is fisher. Fisher apparently also takes advantage of open environments, including agroforestry systems. Moreover, climate change increases the frequency of freeze-thaw events that cause the formation of an ice crust on the snow surface, which favors fisher movements. Conclusion: The fisher was identified as a competitor and even a predator of the marten. Furthermore, the fisher is less affected than the marten by forest management, and it also seems to benefit from climate change to a greater extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2006, the golden cyst nematode, Globodera rostochiensis, was discovered in the province of Quebec, Canada. We report here the life cycle of G. rostochiensis under the climatic conditions of southwestern Quebec. Only one full generation was completed per year under these latitudes. On susceptible potato cv. Snowden, G. rostochiensis needed a minimum of 579 growing degree units (GDU) (base 5.9°C) to complete its life cycle and the first mature cysts were observed 42 to 63 days after planting (DAP). In soil, second-stage juveniles (J2) were first observed 14 to 21 DAP, whereas both white females on roots and males in soil appeared synchronously after 35 to 42 days. The duration of the life cycle was affected by temperature but not by soil type. A second wave of hatching systematically occurred later in the season and a second generation of males was observed during the 2011 growth season. No complete second cycle was observed before plant senescence. Climate change and later maturing cultivars/crops could allow the development of a full second generation in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Aims We examined growth of red maple (Acer rubrum L.) to evaluate environmental controls of its northern distributional limit in Eastern North America and its potential response to future climate change. Methods We collected growth data from nine sites located along a 300-km transect (47-49°N), which included frontier population of red maple and covered three bioclimatic domains in western Quebec. We analyzed three growth variables: growth rates during the first 30 years of maple lifespan, cumulative basal area increment (BA I) over the most recent decade (2000-2009) and annual growth rate over the whole tree lifespan ranging from 58 to 112 years. We also examined growth sensitivity to climate by using response function analysis. Important Findings Three different proxies of maple absolute growth (initial growth rate, BA I during 2000-09 and mean diameter growth rate) indicated a better growth with an increase in latitude. We speculate that stand history effectively overrode the direct effects of colder climate on maple growth along the S-N gradient. Regeneration of maple in the southern sites likely occurred in canopy gaps, whereas in the north it was contingent upon large disturbances such as stand-replacing fires, which apparently provided more favorable light environment for maple growth than canopy gaps. The annual growth variability, which reflects effects of annual weather on growth and is largely independent from the absolute growth rate, was significantly affected by monthly climate, suggesting a positive effect of higher summer temperature in the northern part of the transect (48-49°N) and a negative effect of summer drought in the south (47-48°N). In the future, the natural and human disturbance regimes will be dominant controls of the actual biomass productivity of red maple at the northern limit of its present distribution range. Direct effects of climate on maple growth would likely be less important in this context, and will likely entail negative effect of increased summer drought in the southern part of the study area and positive effects of increased temperatures in the north. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]