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Mendelian randomisation is an epidemiological method for estimating causal associations from observational data by using genetic variants as instrumental variables. Typically the genetic variants explain only a small proportion of the variation in the risk factor of interest, and so large sample sizes are required, necessitating data from multiple sources. Meta-analysis based on individual patient data requires synthesis of studies which differ in many aspects. A proposed Bayesian framework is able to estimate a causal effect from each study, and combine these using a hierarchical model. The method is illustrated for data on C-reactive protein and coronary heart disease (CHD) from the C-reactive protein CHD Genetics Collaboration (CCGC). Studies from the CCGC differ in terms of the genetic variants measured, the study design (prospective or retrospective, population-based or case-control), whether C-reactive protein was measured, the time of C-reactive protein measurement (pre- or post-disease), and whether full or tabular data were shared. We show how these data can be combined in an efficient way to give a single estimate of causal association based on the totality of the data available. Compared to a two-stage analysis, the Bayesian method is able to incorporate data on 23% additional participants and 51% more events, leading to a 23-26% gain in efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Instrumental variable analysis is an approach for obtaining causal inferences on the effect of an exposure (risk factor) on an outcome from observational data. It has gained in popularity over the past decade with the use of genetic variants as instrumental variables, known as Mendelian randomization. An instrumental variable is associated with the exposure, but not associated with any confounder of the exposure-outcome association, nor is there any causal pathway from the instrumental variable to the outcome other than via the exposure. Under the assumption that a single instrumental variable or a set of instrumental variables for the exposure is available, the causal effect of the exposure on the outcome can be estimated. There are several methods available for instrumental variable estimation; we consider the ratio method, two-stage methods, likelihood-based methods, and semi-parametric methods. Techniques for obtaining statistical inferences and confidence intervals are presented. The statistical properties of estimates from these methods are compared, and practical advice is given about choosing a suitable analysis method. In particular, bias and coverage properties of estimators are considered, especially with weak instruments. Settings particularly relevant to Mendelian randomization are prioritized in the paper, notably the scenario of a continuous exposure and a continuous or binary outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]