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• Ocean acidification is commonly framed as a problem of carbon dioxide emissions concurrent to climate change. • This framing has been effective at mobilising action at the domestic level in the United States. • This framing has resulted in misaligning the problem of ocean acidification with regime mandates at the international level. • To mobilise action at the international level a reframing of ocean acidification is warranted. Ocean acidification has long been framed by its epistemic community as a problem of carbon dioxide emissions that is concurrent to climate change. Framing ocean acidification in this way has been effective at garnering policy action at the domestic level in the United States. It is argued, however, in this paper that this framing has been counterproductive at the international level, resulting in two main impediments to the international governance of this issue. Firstly, defining ocean acidification as a concurrent problem to climate change, rather than as an impact of it, has resulted in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change being interpreted as containing no obligation to address ocean acidification. Secondly, focussing almost solely on the reduction of global emissions of carbon dioxide as the only global solution to ocean acidification has resulted in ocean and biodiversity-related regimes that do not have the mandate to regulate CO 2 emissions as being viewed as without the recourse to respond. Through an examination of the causes and consequences of ocean acidification and the general objectives of existing multilateral environmental agreements, a set of alternative problem frames are developed in this paper that could be deployed to mobilize action under existing environmental regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation's energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. This paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events. [Display omitted] • A systematic summer droughts generating capacity assessment framework is developed. • Capacity derating models for various generation technologies are presented. • The impacts of summer droughts on generating fleet in PJM and SERC are studied. • Impact of extreme summer drought on usable capacity of generators is significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to globally uneven distribution of forest resources and timely difference of supply and demand, forest products are difficult to achieve market equilibrium among neighboring countries. The global forest product trade not only alleviates the contradiction of supply and demand, but also ensures the sustainable development of the economic construction for each country. Previous literature analyzed the structure and evolution mechanism of forest product trade from different perspectives, but ignored the competitive relationships among forest product importers. Based on complex network theory, this paper selected global wood forest product trade data from 2004 to 2016. Then we constructed global unweighted and weighted wood-forest-product competitive network from import perspective, and three indicators (density, average path length, and clustering coefficient), core–periphery model and two indicators of competitive intensity were introduced to study the spatial competitive evolution of global wood forest product trade among countries. The results showed that there was wide competition in global wood forest product trade among continents, and the tightness of competitive relationships gradually decreased with time. Secondly, core countries and periphery countries were clearly identified in the competitive network, and China, Japan, the U.S., were the main core countries influencing the evolution of core–periphery structure. Finally, the U.S. played an important role in the global competition system. But with the increment of demand for Asian market, China and other Asian countries gradually became the center of wood-forest-product competition. The research tried to provide some references for importers to follow the laws of global wood forest product trade, and formulate the corresponding policy under constructing sustainable society and facing climate change. • The paper considered the competitive relationship of global wood forest product trade. • TThe paper constructed global unweighted and weighted wood-forest-product competitive network, and studied spatial competitive evolution of global wood forest product trade. • The U.S. played an important role in the global competition system, but China and other Asian countries gradually became the center of global wood-forest-product competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents and analyzes the results of a survey of actors (n = 130) engaged in planning activities in local governments in the United States (U.S.). This exploratory survey was designed to evaluate the nature of existing resilience, climate change and multi-hazard planning activities, if any, as well as additional considerations for understanding the general state of awareness and knowledge of resilience activities and strategies among various public sector actors. The survey data tests several hypotheses, including the hypothesized disproportionate activity of large cities; the positive correlation between resilience, hazard mitigation and emergency planning; and, the dominate usage of disaster and engineering conceptual variants of resilience. Data from the survey provides evidence in support of an affirmation of the hypotheses. The paper offers insight into the dominate actors and frames that are driving resilience planning, as well as the challenges faced by a lack of discipline for applying categorical variants of resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In some coastal cities there is an urgent need to decide on adaptation investments given the long periods needed to complete the relevant infrastructures. However such decisions are usually made under significant uncertainty due to local climate change and socio-economic impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed four global scenarios according to different representative concentration pathways (RCPs); however, using these scenarios directly is equivalent to using incomplete information in the decision-making process because they do not provide information on what sea level rise behavior is most probable. In this study, I propose a model which assigns probabilities to IPCC scenarios with Local Sea Level Rise (LSLR) information. I obtain expected damage and risk measures for the world's 120 major coastal mega-cities at specific moments in time. That is, I consider uncertainty in both scenario selection and within each scenario. With this information it is possible to make adaptation investment decisions under uncertainty with a criterion of not exceeding certain risk levels in the future. The paper shows that in the year 2100 for the equal probability mixed scenario (25% RCP 2.6, 50% RCP 4.5 and 25 RCP 8.5) the expected damage is US$ 1,251,732 millions for New Orleans and US$ 1,196,517 millions for Guangzhou. The risk measurements show that in that year the damage in the 5% of worse cases will be US$ 2,800,756 millions for Guangzhou and US$ 1,832,466 millions for New Orleans. However, not all countries have sufficient resources to make the necessary adaptation investments, so we analyze expected damage and risk according to World Bank country income groups. The paper shows that the USA and China will need to make major adaptation investments in the future. The coastal LSLR risk in lower-income cities is also calculated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristic features of 21st-century corporate capitalism – monopoly and financialization – are increasingly being recognized by public health scholars as undermining the foundations of human health. While the "vectors" through which this is occurring are well known – poverty, inequality, climate change among others – locating the root cause of this process in the nature and institutions of contemporary capitalism is relatively new. Researchers have been somewhat slow to study the relationship between contemporary capitalism and human health. In this paper, we focus on one of the leading causes of death in the United States; cancer, and empirically estimate the relationship between various measures of financialization and monopoly in the US healthcare system and cancer mortality. The measures we focus on are for the hospital industry, the health insurance industry, and the pharmaceutical industry. Using a fixed effects model with different specifications and control variables, our analysis is at the state level for the years 2012–2019. These variables include data on population demographic controls, social and economic factors, and health behavior and clinical care. We compare Medicaid expansion states with non-Medicaid expansion states to investigate variations in state-level funded health insurance coverage. The results show a statistically significant positive correlation between the HHI index in the individual healthcare market and cancer mortality and the opioid dispensing rate and cancer mortality. • We analyze how corporate capitalism is related to cancer mortality. • Recently, corporate capitalism has become more common in the healthcare industry. • We find a correlation between hospital net revenue, profit, and cancer mortality. • There is a link between the HHI index in insurance markets and cancer mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme heat events are the deadliest weather-related event in the United States. Cities throughout the United States have worked to develop heat adaptation strategies to limit the impact of extreme heat on vulnerable populations. However, the COVID-19 pandemic presented unprecedented challenges to local governments. This paper provides a preliminary review of strategies and interventions used to manage compound COVID-19-extreme heat events in the 25 most populous cities of the United States. Heat adaptation strategies employed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic were not adequate to meet during the co-occurring compound hazard of COVID-19-EHE. Long-term climate-adaptation strategies will require leveraging physical, financial, and community resources across multiple city departments to meet the needs of compound hazards, such as COVID-19 and extreme heat. • Cities faced compound crises of COVID-19 and extreme heat in 2020. • 2020 heat response plans analyzed for 25 largest US cities. • Public health and financial limitations significantly reduced cooling access. • Record breaking temperatures left many vulnerable to heat illness and death. • Adaptation and mitigation strategies are needed to manage compound heat events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Previous studies on contamination spread by flooding undercount sites. • 3.3 million people are at risk of contamination from flooding in US urban areas. • Due to changes in urbanization and climate change these figures are likely to increase. • These risks pose complex challenges for environmental managers and urban planners. Climate change is imposing substantial consequences across physical and social infrastructures. The extent of social disruption and risk to human health are, however, potentially much broader than these general consequences, taken individually, would suggest. To address this gap, we assess the distribution of contaminated sites in the United States (US) and then estimate the impact that flood hazards in urban areas will have on these contaminated sites. Using these measures, we draw inferences about the risk of contamination from climate-impacted extreme weather events, climate adaptation at the local level, social risk and how it is distributed, and a broader understanding of the potential global consequences of climate change. In this paper we address three critical points: 1) the role classification of contaminated sites on our understanding of risk due to climate change; 2) the relationship between contaminated sites and flood risk; and 3) the potential for climate adaption strategies to mediate this risk. We estimate that of the roughly one-third of the US population living in urban areas, up to 3,338,518 people, are living in high-risk flood zones near contaminated sites. Our results suggest severe potential implications for estimates of the negative consequences from climate change and contamination and provide critical insights into the relationship between climate change and the built environment for urban planners and environmental policy makers and managers alike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest in the concept of resilience has grown significantly in recent years. The perceived strengths of resilience as a concept stem from its foundations in the sciences and humanities, and have recently gained currency amongst political actors and in policy spheres. This papers objective is to investigate the value of resilience as a concept when applied to the process of coastal climate change adaptation with a focus on place specificity. As applied to coastal hazards and climate change adaptation, we expect that resilience encompasses more system complexities than a traditional vulnerability or hazards approach. Our aim in this paper is achieved through carrying out a critical analysis of Irish and US academic and policy literature and determining if, and to what degree, one or more of the three selected lenses of psychological, engineering and ecological resilience are applied. Through contrasting the evolution of coastal adaptation policy developments in both Ireland and the U.S. the paper highlights the importance of policy, environment and geography in the area of coastal management. It furthermore examines the question of whether the concept of resilience represents a paradigm shift, or whether it maintains the dominant anthropological perspective of earlier hazard mitigation approaches under new guise. The increasing focus on climate adaptation as more than enhanced hazard mitigation exemplifies that shift. In the U.S. proposals for large-scale retreat programs post-Sandy are further evidence that combined ecological-anthropological approaches are gaining traction, though planning actions taken and factors considered continue to be dominated by parochialism and anthropocentric or psychological definitions of resilience. In Ireland there is a noticeable increase in the ecological resilience grounded practices of adaptive management and co-management in relation to coastal planning. The fostering of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) frameworks as well as a clear linking between climate adaption and the management of coastal regions underlines this development. Results indicate that resilience, under the three forms explored, is a concept that has recently increased in popularity. Simultaneously, there has been a discernible shift in the direction of broader inclusion of concerns about human–environment interactions, but the two are not necessarily coextensive, and concepts of resilience do not always encompass these concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has drawn great attention in recent years because of its large impact on many aspects of the environment and human activities in buildings. One area directly affected by climate change is the energy consumption for heating and cooling. To quantify the impact, this study used the HadCM3 Global Circulation Model (GCM) to generate weather data for future typical meteorological years, such as 2020, 2050, and 2080, for 15 cities in the U.S. based on three CO 2 emission scenarios. The method was validated by comparing the projected TMY3 data using HadCM3 with the actual TMY3 data. By morphing method, the weather data was downscaled to hourly data for use in building energy simulations by EnergyPlus. Two types of residential buildings and seven types of commercial buildings were simulated for each of the 15 cities. This paper is the first to systematically study the climate change impact on various types of residential and commercial buildings in all seven climate zones in the U.S. through EnergyPlus simulations and provide weighted averaged results for national-wide building stock. We also identified geographical dependency of the impact of climate change on future energy uses. There would be a net increase in source energy consumption by the 2080s for climate zones 1–4 and net decrease in climate zones 6–7 based on the HadCM3 weather projection. Furthermore, this paper investigated natural ventilation performance in San Francisco, San Diego, and Seattle with improved natural ventilation model. We found that by the 2080s passive cooling would not be suitable for San Diego because of global warming, but it would still be acceptable for San Francisco and Seattle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neither the concepts of antecedence nor superposition from an overlying sedimentary surface can explain many drainage networks that traverse ranges in the Basin and Range geomorphic province of the western U.S. Rather, much of the regional drainage network growth has resulted from pluvial lake overflows and basin breaching, causing episodic extensions of the trunk streams in a downstream direction. In this model, the primary role of sediment is to reduce basin volumes, thus increasing the chances of basin breaching by overflow. After basin breaching, a significant base-level drop often results, which leads to the erosion and recycling of sediments, and drainage network permanency. Therefore, remnants of basin fills reaching rim elevations, and other evidence of superposition are unlikely. Drainage network evolution appears to be closely tied to the large Plio-Pleistocene climatic shifts, suggesting that regional drainage integration in the Basin and Range is most likely a Pliocene or Quaternary phenomenon. • Sediment recycling accelerates the growth of river systems in closed basins. • Climate changes accelerate the growth of river systems in closed basins. • Young river networks grow downstream in a mostly random stepwise method. • The first paper to propose lake-overflow for the Colorado River system after 1934. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Partnerships between cities can play an important role in cloudburst knowledge systems. • There is a need for improved projections of cloudburst intensity with climate change. • There is a need for social science research to improve cloudburst risk dimensioning. • Policymakers need support in decision-making under climate change associated uncertainties. Cities are particularly vulnerable to cloudbursts - short-duration, intense rainfall events – which are often inadequately addressed through conventional stormwater and flood management policy. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of cloudbursts in many cities. As minor cloudburst events become more frequent and extreme events more severe, cities will need to rapidly transform their stormwater drainage and interdependent systems, and the knowledge systems that guide their infrastructure decisions and policy. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of knowledge systems to address these challenges, using three diverse cities (Phoenix, USA; Copenhagen, Denmark; and New York City, USA) as case studies. We found that partnerships between cities – even across national boundaries – can be a particularly important component of cloudburst knowledge systems. We also identified limitations in knowledge systems related to non-stationary climate, the vulnerability of private property and the representation of cloudburst infrastructure in integrated water management, which present opportunities for future research to support decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insect pollinators (bees and butterflies) face global challenges as climate change impacts species occurrence (or extinction) within managed and protected areas. While species decline is predicted for invertebrate species, especially in sensitive ecosystems such as high alpine systems, little is known about species responses to climate change. This study seeks to understand the impact of climate change on pollinators in high elevation ecosystems, specifically within Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks. These parks are connected protected areas in the United States that act as a large reservoir for conserving species, including pollinators. Students performing research amidst the COVID-19 pandemic were divided into two virtual teams (bug team and climate team) to assess historic climate data, natural history collections and plant/pollinator data from Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks. Each team was tasked with addressing the larger question of climate change impacts on pollinators within protected areas while also gaining interpersonal, collaborative learning skills through their experience. This paper highlights two case studies tied to pollinator decline. The first assesses citizen science and natural history collection databases to predict and field test species occurrence within the parks. The second identifies suitable habitats for species occurrence locations. Lastly, this paper emphasizes the learning outcomes students had from virtual and hybrid field settings and offers suggestions for applications towards field-based research efforts. • The status of pollinators (bees and butterflies) in United States parks is unknown. • Pollinators and climate change impacts are easy to study through online databases. • Student learning gains through field research is improved with online data efforts. • Online database validations improve ecological fieldwork efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Global warming is already affecting the oceans through changes in water temperature, acidification, oxygen content and sea level rise, amongst many others. These changes are having multiple effects on marine species worldwide, with subsequent impacts on marine fisheries, peoples' livelihoods and food security. This work presents a review of the recent literature on the current and projected impacts of climate change on Canada's Pacific marine ecosystem. We find that there is an increasing number of studies in British Columbia focusing on changes in ocean conditions and marine species responses under climate change, including an emerging literature on the socio-economic impacts of these changes considered to be a knowledge gap. According to the literature, it is well established that ocean temperatures are increasing over the long-term, especially, in southern areas of British Columbia. Warming trends are increasing in the spring and are strongest in summer. However, there are important uncertainties regarding other climate drivers, such as oxygen concentration and acidification, stemming mainly from the insufficiency of data. Pacific salmon, elasmobranchs, invertebrates and rockfishes are amongst the most vulnerable species groups to climate change in British Columbia. Also, shifts in stock distribution and fish abundance under climate change may have a significant impact on fish supply affecting the livelihoods and food security of some British Columbians. The magnitude of these impacts is likely to vary according to a latitudinal gradient, with southern coastal areas being more affected than northern and central areas; challenging multiple areas of governance, such as equity and fishing access amongst First Nations; and institutional arrangements for transboundary stocks between the U.S. and Canada. Highlights • Climate change is impacting marine species worldwide, affecting marine fisheries, peoples' livelihoods and food security. • There is an emerging literature on the socio-economic impacts of climate change at the local level. • This paper presents a review of the literature published on these impacts in British Columbia's marine species and fisheries. • Socio-economic impacts will vary according to a latitudinal gradient with unequal distribution of losses in marine catches. • We identify some of the risks that fisheries, communities and the economy are facing in the region due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Current reforestation often focuses on planting regularly-spaced pine seedlings. • 'Course correction' depends on increasingly rare follow-up treatments. • This approach may not build early resilience to fire and drought stress. • An alternative is suggested that includes dividing replanting areas into three zones. • We also emphasize including cluster planting in mesic microsites. • Using prescribed fire to reduce fuels, competing vegetation and build resilience. • Limitations and areas that need further research are highlighted. Abstract The increasing frequency and severity of fire and drought events have negatively impacted the capacity and success of reforestation efforts in many dry, western U.S. forests. Challenges to reforestation include the cost and safety concerns of replanting large areas of standing dead trees, and high seedling and sapling mortality rates due to water stress, competing vegetation, and repeat fires that burn young plantations. Standard reforestation practices have emphasized establishing dense conifer cover with gridded planting, sometimes called 'pines in lines', followed by shrub control and pre-commercial thinning. Resources for such intensive management are increasingly limited, reducing the capacity for young plantations to develop early resilience to fire and drought. This paper summarizes recent research on the conditions under which current standard reforestation practices in the western U.S. may need adjustment, and suggests how these practices might be modified to improve their success. In particular we examine where and when plantations with regular tree spacing elevate the risk of future mortality, and how planting density, spatial arrangement, and species composition might be modified to increase seedling and sapling survival through recurring drought and fire events. Within large areas of contiguous mortality, we suggest a "three zone" approach to reforestation following a major disturbance that includes; (a) working with natural recruitment within a peripheral zone near live tree seed sources; (b) in a second zone, beyond effective seed dispersal range but in accessible areas, planting a combination of clustered and regularly spaced seedlings that varies with microsite water availability and potential fire behavior; and (c) a final zone defined by remote, steep terrain that in practice limits reforestation efforts to the establishment of founder stands. We also emphasize the early use of prescribed fire to build resilience in developing stands subject to increasingly common wildfires and drought events. Finally, we highlight limits to our current understanding of how young stands may respond and develop under these proposed planting and silvicultural practices, and identify areas where new research could help refine them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • An integrated approach is developed for environmental sustainability. • Climate variability has significant impacts on local environmental sustainability. • Rio Grande Basin is sustainable under current climate conditions. • Rio Grande Basin will become less sustainable in the late 21st century. Abstract Extreme weather events have been affecting local environmental sustainability. Previous literature in this field evaluates environmental sustainability based mainly on past and current resource consumption and availability, however, knowledge about the status and potential changes of environmental sustainability under future climate extremes is missing. This paper proposes an integrated approach (combining the Ecological Footprint Analysis with econometric regressions) to predict future environmental sustainability under different climate scenarios. Based on the case study of the U.S. Rio Grande Basin, the results show that this region has been sustainable in 1982–2012, although sustainability levels have been declining over time. In addition, projections for the future show that the entire region will most likely move away from sustainability by the end of this century under the high emission scenario (e.g., RCP8.5). These findings are relevant for sustainable resource management and allocation of local environmental resources as well as for decision-making support regarding climate risk adaptation and mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Adaptation to water scarcity induced by future climate change will be crucial for the viability of agricultural economies in many areas of the world. In this paper, we study the acquisition of supplemental irrigation water rights as an adaptation strategy undertaken by irrigation-dependent farmers in response to historical climate change. By exploiting the panel structure of a unique dataset of farm-level supplemental right adoption decisions in the state of Oregon, we establish a relationship between climate conditions, competition for local water resources, and the acquisition of supplemental rights. Our results indicate that a warmer, drier climate increases the likelihood that irrigated farms acquire supplemental rights, suggesting that farmers in Oregon have used supplemental rights to adapt to historical climate change. We also find evidence of heterogeneous effects suggesting that junior irrigators, groundwater-dependent irrigators, and farmers with access to a relatively lower volume of water have been most affected by historical climate change with respect to their supplemental water right acquisition decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines adaptation responses to climate change through adjustment of agricultural land use. The climate drivers we examine are changes in long-term climate normals (e.g., 10-year moving averages) and changes in inter-annual climate variability. Using US county level data over 1982 to 2012 from Census of Agriculture, we find that impacts of long-term climate normals are as important as that of inter-annual climate variability. Projecting into the future, we find projected climate change will lead to an expansion in crop land share across the northern and interior western United States with decreases in the south. We also find that grazing land share increases in southern regions and Inland Pacific Northwest and declines in the northern areas. However, the extent to which the adaptation potential would be is dependent on the climate model, emission scenario and time horizon under consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whole building life cycle assessment (WBLCA) has received significant attention from the research community in the past few years. The United States Green Building Council (USGBC) has made it an option for receiving points in version 4 of its Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) rating system. Yet, the research described in this paper has revealed that the process of WBLCA as applied to LEED is not very well understood by building professionals. As many building professionals do not understand WBLCA, very few pursue it for their new building projects. The objective of the research described in this paper was to examine and clarify issues related to WBLCA as it applies to LEED. The paper presents a six-step process for conducting a WBLCA and use the process on a building case study for which a LEED compliant WBLCA was conducted and approved. The paper also suggests improvements to the current LEED WBLCA requirements that have the potential to further reduce the embodied energy and environmental impacts of materials used in new building projects. The ultimate goal of the research presented in the paper is to increase the building industry awareness of the WBLCA process and make it "business as usual". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coast is a highly populated environment that is under increasing risk because of sea level rise (SLR) and climate change. Social science predicts that social and political systems will habitually privilege certain communities and disadvantage others under conditions of risk and disaster. This paper tests that supposition on a particular disaster policy in the United States. Voluntary buyouts are a policy tool in the US that has the potential to help communities adapt to SLR. While buyouts have been resisted in the past, there is some indication that they are becoming more politically popular. Despite increased popularity, communities in Alaska who need to relocate because of repetitive flooding and sea level rise do not meet the basic requirements of the buyout program in a way that makes this policy applicable to their situation. We find that notions of the market, property, and individualism are ideological assumptions inherent to the buyout policies, which ultimately serve to disadvantage tribal communities as they attempt to relocate as an adaptation strategy to climate change. This analysis suggests that adaptation policies to climate change themselves, can limit the inventory of possibilities that some communities have to choose from, and re-entrench inequity in the face of risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal and marine ecosystems around the world are under threat from a growing number of anthropogenic impacts, including climate change. Resource managers, researchers, policy makers, and coastal community planners are tasked with identifying, developing, and monitoring strategies to reduce or reverse the ecological, economic and social impact of environmental stressors. These individuals must make decisions about how to prioritize and allocate finite resources to address these issues, all under conditions of significant uncertainty about which of these stressors to address. This paper presents the results of a survey and workshop designed to rank the impact of a series of stressors on four components of the marine and coastal ecosystems of the Northeast United States. The methodology described here – expert elicitation supplemented by workshop deliberations – proved to be relatively cost-effective, time-efficient, and informative for identifying priority stressors for the ecosystem components under consideration, both now and in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to concerns related to climate change, and an attempt to encourage more sustainable behavior, individuals are often provided with information on greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) of consumer items, such as personal vehicles. Currently in the US, information on vehicle efficiency is provided as grams of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) per mile. Previous research presenting CO 2 as a mass and testing willingness-to-pay through Discrete Choice Experiment has found that such information can influence vehicle choice. However, other research has questioned whether how this information is presented might affect choice. That research argues that CO 2 emission information generally lacks contextualization that allows for interpretation. As well, it argues that the type of contextualization may affect choices. That research though did not test willingness-to-pay and the strength of its influence is not clear. In addition, research exists that argues that using pro-social, as opposed to financial, contextualization might be more influential on people’s choices. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to build on these previous findings on how CO 2 emissions are presented to determine whether changing how that information impacts vehicle choice with a Discrete Choice Experiment of vehicle choice analyzed using latent class modeling. No previous study has so robustly studied the influence that different framings might have on vehicle purchase. Five different methods of presenting CO 2 information are tested in this experiment: CO 2 emissions as grams per mile (current method), CO 2 emissions as pounds per year (consistent imperial units), CO 2 emissions as tons per year (yearly contextualization), an annual tax on CO 2 (yearly financial contextualization), and CO 2 as a percentage of the 2025 US EPA reduction target of 26% from 2005 levels (social goal contextualization). Results demonstrate that the current method results in lowest willingness to pay for CO 2 emission reductions, while the social goal contextualization results in the highest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between renewable energy production and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) using U.S. state-level data for 2010. After controlling for other sources of emissions, U.S. states that produce a larger share of renewable energy are found to have lower GHG emissions. It is estimated that a 10% increase in the share of renewable energy could decrease CH 4 emissions by about 0.26%. Since the use of renewable energy sources does not release GHG emissions, this effect can be interpreted as stabilizing if renewable energy is added to coal use or as corrective if it replaces coal. After accounting for the role of coal as a baseload power source, an increase in the share of renewable energy is estimated to mitigate N 2 O emissions at the U.S. state level only if states individually decrease their share of coal use to levels below 41.47%. These findings have significant policy implications for the provision of guidance to policymakers in identifying optimal energy mixes and in pursuing realistic goals to enhance renewable energy penetration and to contribute to the current efforts of tackling climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drop-in biofuels that are compatible with the existing vehicle and retail infrastructure continue to receive great attention due to their promise in addressing climate change and energy security concerns stemming from use of petroleum-based fuels. In this paper we discuss current drop-in biofuel production technologies and assess relevant biofuel policies in the U.S., particularly those impacting forest biomass in Maine and the Northeast. In this context, we examine the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) policy and its definition of biomass which favors biomass from plantations regardless of actual ecological impacts on biodiversity, soil and water quality. We argue that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) should consider revising the definition of biomass eligible for renewable fuel credits to include sustainably managed natural forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green growth is increasingly being seen as a means of simultaneously meeting current and future climate change obligations and reducing unemployment. This paper uses detailed industry-level data from the Bureau of Labor Statistic's Green Goods and Services survey to examine how the provision of so-called green goods and services has affected various aspects of the US economy. Our descriptive results reveal that those states and industries that were relatively green in 2010 became even greener in 2011. To investigate further we include green goods and services in a production function. The results show that between 2010 and 2011 industries that have increased their share of green employment have reduced their productivity although this negative correlation was only for the manufacture of green goods and not for the supply of green services. In further analysis we investigate skill-technology complementarities in the production of green goods and services and show that industries that increased their provision of green goods and services grew more slowly, reduced their expenditure on technology inputs and increased their demand for medium educated workers, whilst simultaneously reducing their demand for lower skilled workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the relationship between income inequality and carbon emissions in the United States between 1929 and 2019. We contribute to the literature by studying if and how the relationship has varied over time. To this end we estimate a band spectrum regression model and a smooth-varying coefficients model. Our results show that higher inequality was associated with lower emissions during the early part of the sample and higher emissions towards the end of the sample. • Whether the level of inequality affects carbon dioxide emssions is unclear. • We test the association between income inequalty and carbon dioxide emissions. • We find that the relationship varies over time. • Changes in consumption patterns may partially explain the time varying effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As bacteria and diseases spread due to climatic change, greater amounts of antibiotics will be used thereby exacerbating the problem of antibiotic resistance. To help slacken the development of resistant bacteria, the medical community is attempting to reduce unnecessary and excessive usage of antibiotics. One of the targets is the use of antibiotics for enhancing animal growth and promoting feed efficiency in the production of food animals. While governments can adopt regulations prohibiting nontherapeutic uses of antibiotics in food animals and strategies to reduce antibiotic usage, another idea is to publicize when antibiotics are used in food animal production by allowing labeled meat products. This paper builds upon existing labeling and marketing efforts in the United States to show how a government can develop a verified antibiotic-free labeling program that would allow consumers to purchase meat products from animals that had never received antibiotics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing demands for food security to feed increasing populations worldwide have intensified the search for improved performance of irrigation, the world’s largest water user. These challenges are raised in the face of climate variability and from growing environmental demands. Adaptation measures in irrigated agriculture include fallowing land, shifting cropping patterns, increased groundwater pumping, reservoir storage capacity expansion, and increased production of risk-averse crops. Water users in the Gila Basin headwaters of the U.S. Lower Colorado Basin have faced a long history of high water supply fluctuations producing low-valued defensive cropping patterns. To date, little research grade analysis has investigated economically viable measures for irrigation development to adjust to variable climate. This gap has made it hard to inform water resource policy decisions on workable measures to adapt to climate in the world’s dry rural areas. This paper’s contribution is to illustrate, formulate, develop, and apply a new methodology to examine the economic performance from irrigation capacity improvements in the Gila Basin of the American Southwest. An integrated empirical optimization model using mathematical programming is developed to forecast cropping patterns and farm income under two scenarios (1) status quo without added storage capacity and (2) with added storage capacity in which existing barriers to development of higher valued crops are dissolved. We find that storage capacity development can lead to a higher valued portfolio of irrigation production systems as well as more sustained and higher valued farm livelihoods. Results show that compared to scenario (1), scenario (2) increases regional farm income by 30%, in which some sub regions secure income gains exceeding 900% compared to base levels. Additional storage is most economically productive when institutional and technical constraints facing irrigated agriculture are dissolved. Along with additional storage, removal of constraints on weak transportation capacity, limited production scale, poor information access, weak risk-bearing capacity, limited management skills, scarce labor supply, low food processing capacity, and absolute scale constraints, all can raise the economic value of additional irrigation capacity development. Our results light a path forward to policy makers, water administrators, and farm managers, who bear the burden of protecting farm income, food and water security, and rural economic development in the world’s dry regions faced by the need to adapt to climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a methodology for the rational assessment of lifetime costs on tall buildings due to hurricane-induced damage along the US Atlantic coastline accounting for plausible future warming climate scenarios. The hurricane simulation is based on Vickery’s empirical model. Initially, regression errors in Vickery’s model are discussed; some adjustments are proposed to enable hurricane simulation in future climates. After verification of the hurricane model’s ability to simulate the results of the United States historical hurricane database, simulation of hurricane activity in future climates is examined. The warming climate scenarios are reproduced from the results of the community earth system model, maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Three different future climate scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are considered. The influence of warming climate on two quantities, relevant to wind engineering, is examined: hurricane frequency and hurricane intensity. It is found that, in a warming climate environment, the hurricane frequency and hurricane intensity may vary depending on the RCP scenario. Therefore, the probability distribution of the wind speed in hurricane-prone areas of the United States, both coastal and interior areas, will also be influenced by the RCPs. The numerical methodology for computing wind speed probability distribution in a future warming climate, influenced by the various RCP scenarios, is subsequently coupled with an existing approach for structural performance analysis against wind hazards to predict the indirect effect of future warming climate on the structural intervention costs (i.e. repair costs), induced by the damaging winds. A 180-m tall benchmark building, located in Miami (Florida, USA), is used as one example of application in conjunction with a series of structural fragility curves, derived from a recent study for the same structure. The evaluation of lifetime intervention costs is later expanded to demonstrate the ability of the proposed methodology to predict hurricane wind damage, if the location of the structure is moved to several other cities along the Atlantic coast of the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees in residential neighborhoods and communities provide benefits for homeowners that are capitalized into residential property values. In this paper, we collected data from hedonic property value studies and merged these data with ancillary spatial data describing forest and socio-economic characteristics surrounding each study area to conduct a meta-analysis of the impact of tree canopy cover on the value of residential properties. The meta-analysis suggests that property-level tree cover of about 30% and county-level tree cover of about 38% maximize the implicit price of tree cover in property values. Currently, tree cover in the original study areas was about 14%, on average, around or near study properties. The empirical results, therefore suggest under investment of tree cover on private property from the perspective of individual property owners and from a societal perspective. The findings also have implications for community forest programs regarding planting trees and protection of mature trees to address potential changes in tree abundance, species diversity and stand age due to development and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate are likely to induce changes in precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency, duration and patterns of events. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of multiple regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to simulate storm properties including storm duration, inter-storm period, storm intensity, and within-storm patterns at eight locations in the continental US. We also investigate the future projections of them based on precipitation from NARCCAP historic runs and future runs. Results illustrate that NARCCAP RCMs are consistent with observed precipitation in the seasonal variation of storm duration and inter-storm period, but fail to simulate the magnitude. The ability to simulate the seasonal trend of average storm intensity varies among locations. Within-storm patterns from RCMs exhibit greater variability than from observed records. Comparisons between RCM-historic simulations and RCM projections indicate that there is a large variation in the future changes in storm properties. However, multi-model ensembles of the storm properties suggest that most regions of the United States will experience future changes in storm properties that includes shorter storm duration, longer inter-storm period, and larger average storm intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind-generated electricity is a growing renewable energy resource. Because wind results from the uneven heating (and resulting pressure gradients) of the Earth, future wind resources may be affected by anticipated climate change. Many studies have used global and regional climate models to predict trends in the future wind resource over the continental United States. While some of these studies identified regions that are expected to gain wind energy, their results often come with a high degree of uncertainty, and lack of agreement across different climate models. In this paper we focus on wind energy density as a measure of the available wind resource over the continental United States. We estimate the change in wind energy density from the period 1968–2000 to the period 2038–2070 by using output from four regional climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). We find strong agreement across all 4 models that the wind energy resource is expected to increase in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas – a region already in possession of both large scale generating capacity and political support for wind energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Activists and scholars increasingly blame neoliberalism for the failure to sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but there is insufficient research that investigates the theoretical link between neoliberalism and climate paralysis. This paper seeks to fill that gap by presenting a coherent account of how neoliberal ideology has constrained policies to address climate change in the United States. As motivation, we first present evidence suggesting more neoliberal countries perform worse in addressing climate change. We then analyze how three tenets of neoliberal ideology—to decentralize democracy, defund public investment, and deregulate the economy—have stymied climate action in the United States. Finally, we discuss the Green New Deal as a decisively anti-neoliberal framework that seeks to wield the power of the federal government to pursue large-scale public investments and binding climate regulations for rapid decarbonization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a simulation study of the energy and CO 2 benefits of a transparent, near-infrared switching electrochromic (NEC) glazing for building applications. NEC glazings are an emerging dynamic window technology that can modulate the transmission of NIR heat without affecting transmission of visible light. In this study, a hypothetical NEC glazing is simulated on clear and tinted glass in six building type models in 16 U.S. climate regions using Energy Plus 7.1. The total annual energy consumption for lighting, heating, cooling, and ventilation for the NEC glazings are compared with high performance static windows and conventional tungsten-oxide EC glazings. Using regional CO 2 intensities and building stock totals, the results from individual building model simulations are scaled up to national totals. The U.S. national savings from NEC deployment is found to be 167 TWh/yr (600 PJ/yr) compared to the existing building stock, but only 8 TWh/yr (29 PJ/yr) or 1.56 million tonnes of CO 2 per year when compared to high performance static glazings with lighting controls installed. NEC performance varied significantly by building type and location. This analysis reveals that 50% of the total energy savings can be realized by deploying NEC glazings in only 18% of the total window stock, and 75% of the savings in only 39% of the stock. The best performing locations include medium offices and midrise residential buildings in northern climates, where energy savings per unit window area range from 50 to 200 kWh/m 2 -yr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary objectives of recent energy initiatives have been: (1) lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and (2) increasing US energy security by reducing oil imports for the purposes of making the US less vulnerable to the actions of other countries. The concern is that relying on sometimes adversarial, sometimes unstable countries for a quarter of our oil carries certain risks. For that reason, reducing the external oil dependence has been of interest to policy makers. This paper examines the impacts and costs of transportation-based policies on light-duty vehicle fleet energy usage and emissions. Using the 2010 elastic version of the US Environmental Protection Agency's Market Allocation (MARKAL) model, recent increases in US Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards are compared to what some economists suggest would be a much more “efficient” alternative-asystem-wide oil tax internalizing a number of environmental externalities. We discover that our series of oil taxes produce larger and more cost-effective reductions in economy-wide emissions than CAFE. The same cannot be said in regards to net oil imports. Stricter fuel economy regulations result in much larger cutbacks in imports than the oil tax. In fact, we found that in 2040 import demands are roughly 250 million BOE (barrels of oil equivalent) higher with our oil tax regime than they are with CAFE. The additional import reductions achieved with stricter CAFE Standards do come, however, at a much larger cost to society. A great deal of these additional economic costs stems from greater usage of more energy-efficient automobiles and the higher initial capital costs associated with their adoption. In our supplementary analysis, we find that even if the costs of these types of vehicles are lowered by as much as 75%, oil taxes would still be able to maintain their competitive edge over CAFE standards in regards to cost-effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increase of precipitation intensity is the most definite and detectable hydrological consequence of a warmer climate. Among all U.S. regions, the Northeast has witnessed the strongest increase of extreme precipitation in the past five decades. This study examines the impact of climate changes during 1950–2011 on hydrological processes in the Northeast using the Connecticut River Basin as a case study. In addition to precipitation and river discharge data from observations, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model is used to derive hydrological variables for which long-term observational data are not readily available. Our results show a clear increase of precipitation intensity, with substantial increase in both the number of days with greater than 10 mm precipitation and the simple daily intensity index. From 1950 to 2011, extreme precipitation amount (which is the total amount of precipitation from the upper 1% of daily precipitation) increased substantially, by 240% relative to the 1950 level. The weight of extreme precipitation as a fraction of total precipitation also increased, from about 10.6% in the 1950s to 30.4% in the 2000s. Despite the increase of precipitation extremes, the consecutive dry days experienced a slight decrease. Mean trend analysis shows indications of increasing precipitation amount, increasing discharge, increasing runoff ratios, increasing soil moisture, and a negligible evapotranspiration trend. Our simulations suggest that the basin is entering a wetter regime more subject to meteorological flood conditions than to drought conditions. A companion paper will investigate how these trends may persist or differ in the mid-21st century under continued warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Renewable energy is an option for many countries simultaneously seeking to reduce dependence on imported petroleum and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that contribute to climate change. Forestry can play a role in environmental policies, such as renewable portfolio standards for bioelectricity, renewable fuel standards for biofuels, and forest carbon sequestration. This paper models interactions and interdependencies between bioelectricity and biofuel production, particularly from forest biomass. A global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to measure the economic effects of bioenergy production from forest products, forest residues, and dedicated energy crops. The land use and emissions impacts on the global economy of revenue-neutral GHG mitigation policies are evaluated. Results show that mandated bioenergy production can substantially reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, especially through fossil fuel substitution in the electricity sector. Although emissions reductions from bioenergy production in the transportation fuel sector are less dramatic than those in the electricity sector, biofuels also have lower emissions rates than petroleum-based transportation fuels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Comparison of Budyko-based methods to separate catchment and climate effects on flow. • Probabilistic nature of catchment parameter and its uncertainty considered. • New, improved Two-Stage Decomposition method proposed for separation. • Proposed method considers uncertainty in evaporative index using bootstrap method. • Proposed method more robust than using any single earlier-practiced method. Streamflow variability is affected by both climate change and direct human impacts within the catchment. Quantification of the role of these two factors have significant implications for water resources. In recent years, Budyko-based analytical methods have been widely used for such quantification due to their simplicity and efficacy. This paper presents a comparison of such methods to attribute changes in streamflow in four Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) catchments in the contiguous United States. Further, a new, improved Two-stage Decomposition method to separate the role of climate and catchment changes on streamflow is proposed, considering the uncertainty in the catchment parameter that further leads to a range of evaporative index values within a catchment. We find that climate and catchment effects are sensitive to the choice of Budyko equation, disaggregation algorithm and approximation technique. Further, the catchment parameter can be expressed probabilistically, to account for the uncertainty because of limited hydro-meteorological records. The proposed approach employs a bootstrap analysis to obtain the stochastic range of the catchment parameter, considering different choices of Budyko equations. We argue that rather than relying on a single Budyko-based approach for separation of climate and catchment effects on streamflow, the proposed method offers a more robust way by considering the entire range of uncertainty of the catchment parameter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are a variety of current challenges that will shape our future, such as climate change impacts, socio-economic disparities, the role of technology in society, and changing population dynamics. As ideas about the future influence actions taken today, it is important to study what possible futures young adults anticipate and how they believe those futures could be realized. In 2019, using an in-person paper survey, we asked students (N = 193; ages 18–26) to describe their best, most-likely, and worst possible futures for the United States in either the year 2050 or 2100. Participants were also asked questions to explore what would need to happen to achieve these futures and the actors who have influence in shaping the future. Here we explore their description of these future scenarios and pathways. Our participants' images of the future are heavily infused with concepts related to environmental sustainability, technology, and social dynamics. Further, participants frequently expressed the belief that governance, technological developments, and individuals were key factors that will determine the contours of the future. The images of the future collected by our work can help to engage productively with young adults in addressing today's pressing challenges. • Young adults see the environment as a key term for understanding the future. • Waste, not climate change, is the most prominent environmental issue. • Government and technology are viewed as most likely factors to shape the future. • Reported optimism about the future but depictions of the future less optimistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A comprehensive analysis of data from commercial buildings in United States to identify operational problems and opportunities. • These opportunities were not strongly correlated with building vintage, size, or building type, but were reflective of how the buildings are operated. • This analysis showed that opportunities to improve building operations exist in almost every building. • There was wide variation in whole building energy savings, ranging from 0 to 50% and 0 to 18 $/m2 with median percent annual whole building savings of 12% and median normalized annual cost savings of $1.75/m2. In the United States, as much as 30% of the 19 EJ that commercial buildings consume is considered excess. Much of the excess energy is due to the inability to manage building operations efficiently. Because almost 20% of the total primary energy consumption is associated with commercial buildings, significant energy reductions in this sector are needed to mitigate climate change. Therefore, many cities and states are mandating periodic "tune-ups" of these buildings to eliminate excess energy consumption. Although the benefits of tune-ups and retro -commissioning are clear, focusing these mandates to look for specific opportunities has been a challenge because of the lack of studies that document the prevalence of opportunities. Therefore, we analyzed building automation system data from 151 buildings across the United States to document common operational problems and opportunities to improve building operations. This analysis showed that opportunities to improve building operations exist in almost every building. These opportunities were not strongly correlated with building vintage or size, but were reflective of how the buildings are operated. The prevalence of the top 20 opportunities ranged between 74% and 23%, with 40% of these associated with air-handling units. The rest of the opportunities are associated with schedules, chilled and hot-water distribution, and zone controls. Of the 151 buildings, 69 of them implemented corrective actions of some or all opportunities that were identified. Implementation varied across the Re-tuning categories, with 60% for schedule opportunities, 50% for zone opportunities, over 40% for the air-handling unit and hot-water opportunities, and 35% of the chilled-water opportunities. There was wide variation in whole building energy savings, ranging from 0 to 50% and 0 to 18 $/m2 with median percent annual whole building savings of 12% and median normalized annual cost savings of $1.75/m2. In addition to documenting these key findings, the paper provides a list of opportunities that can be automatically and continuously identified and corrected and offers a list of those opportunities that should be the focus of the mandates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Energy efficiency provides substantial carbon dioxide emissions reduction. • Renewable energy sources substantially influences carbon dioxide emissions. • Substantively, renewable energy is slightly more effective than energy efficiency. • Affluence tampers the effectiveness of energy efficiency and renewable energy. This study examines the comparative effectiveness of two important proposed solutions to climate change—energy efficiency improvement and the development and use of renewable energy sources. We focus specifically on their impacts on carbon dioxide emissions by conducting fixed effects regression analysis of panel data pertaining to U.S. states. The analysis reveals a negative relationship between both remedies and carbon dioxide emissions. Although the effects of these potential solutions are statistically equivalent, renewable energy production has a slight edge. Reflecting upon these findings and the larger environmental problem, we caution against exclusive reliance on efficiency improvement and renewable energy to the neglect of other important actions, such as lifestyle modifications. A broad range of social changes, which incorporate the remedies investigated in this paper, are needed to limit long-term global temperature increases to the desired level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alluvial fans occur in all climatic and tectonic environments. However, most descriptions of fan features and sediments have focused on arid and semiarid regions. This paper describes the sediments and soil ages on 63 alluvial fans in a subhumid climate (mean annual precipitation of 45–52 cm). SSURGO soil data were merged with geologic and topographic data in the ArcMap© GIS platform to develop a series of maps showing variations across fan surfaces in sediment textures and surface stability ages. Particle size data (percent cobble and percent total gravel) from the upper 150 cm of sediments cluster into six textural groups that are aligned along a trend of decreasing gravel percentage (decreasing stream capacity) and decreasing cobble percentage (decreasing stream competency). The groups of higher cobble and gravel percentages extend from fan apex to toe in both the shallow (<50 cm depth) and deeper (>100 cm depth) layers with groups of lower cobble and gravel percentage occurring along fan margins in the shallow (<50 cm depth) layer. The thickness of B and Bt horizons from representative soil profiles were used to calculate proportional soil ages based on 10Be residence times in loessial Bt horizons and correlation of gravelly fan soils to similar gravelly soils on nearby Pinedale outwash. This approach identified six stability episodes since the end of the Bull Lake beginning at ~100 ka, ~38 ka, ~27 ka, ~16 ka, ~10 ka, and <2 ka. The proportional soil ages correlate closely with fan chronologies constrained by TL and OSL ages in nearby areas. Soil ages and sediment textural groups differed between fan populations along the mountain front with active faulting and those along the stable mountain front. Fan stability surfaces older than 16 ka are preserved only at fault termini. Holocene faulting resulted in fans with (1) coarser sediments, (2) younger sediments, (3) progressive onlap of younger sediments, (4) the absence of relic fan surfaces, landslides and colluvium at the mountain front, and (5) the onlap of alluvial fans onto the floodplain of the axial stream. Sediment pulses related to individual fault events could not be definitively identified because of concurrent climatic changes. The study demonstrates that both climatic and tectonic conditions influence sediment textures and fan surfaces ages. • Sediments cluster into six groups reflecting progressive changes in stream power • The same high capacity/high competency textural groups dominate all fan sediments • Six fan-surface stability episodes since Bull Lake (100, 38, 27, 16, 10, and < 2 ka) • Relict fans >38 ka only occur at fault termini; elsewhere fan surfaces are <16 ka • Identified fan-stability episodes are regional and correspond to climate changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A HB framework is used to consider similarity of adjacent basins to restrain time-varying parameter. • Four scenarios were developed to explore the spatial coherence between adjacent basins. • The proposed method succeeded in reducing the uncertainty of time-varying parameters. • The seasonality of the catchment storage was more coherent between adjacent basins. Hydrological processes became non-stationary under the influences of climate change and human activities. This non-stationarity highlights the need to adopt time-varying parameters in hydrological models. The majority of existing literature quantifies time-varying parameters by incorporating real observations of single basin into a hydrological model. They are limited in their information on catchment characteristics and climatic factors to constrain time-varying parameters. Thus, models are difficult to apply for hydrological predictions outside the calibration periods. This paper formulated the time-varying parameters for a lumped hydrological model as explicit functions of physically-based covariates that captured the catchment characteristics. Then, it used a hierarchical Bayesian framework to incorporate the similarity of adjacent basins to reduce the uncertainty of the assumed functions for time-varying parameters. Four modeling scenarios were developed to explore the spatial coherence between different characteristics of adjacent basins. Five criteria were adopted to evaluate the performance of assumed functional forms. Four spatially adjacent catchments in the central United States were selected as case studies to examine the validity of the proposed method. Results showed that (1) the proposed method succeeded in reducing the uncertainty of time-varying parameters, and (2) the seasonality of the catchment storage was more coherent between adjacent basins, indicated by the largest increase in model prediction performance (i.e., 9%). This study improved the understanding of the spatial coherence of time-varying parameters, which helps improve hydrological predictions in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]