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Safety net programs, common in settings with high informality like Latin America, often use a means test to establish eligibility. We ask: in settings in which organised crime provides lucrative opportunities in the informal market, will discouraging formal employment via benefits eligibility criteria increase criminal enterprise activity? We link administrative socioeconomic microdata with the universe of arrests in Medellín over a decade, and exploit exogenous variation in formal-sector employment around a socioeconomic-score cutoff, below which individuals receive generous benefits if not formally employed. Regression discontinuity estimates confirm this policy reduced formal-sector employment and generated a corresponding increase in arrests associated with organised crime. We do not find increases for crimes unlikely to be associated with organised entities, such as crimes of impulse or opportunity. Effects on arrests are strongest in neighbourhoods where organised crime is most prevalent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing significance of non-compliant employment practice in the British economy has motivated scrutiny of the effectiveness of current regulation. In some markets, charges of labour exploitation, underpayment of the national minimum wage and associated 'wage theft' from workers are rife where business operations are characterised by academics, regulators and stakeholders as exuding 'permissive visibility'. The current landscape of enforcement and regulation of informal business and employment practices features complex structural and operational issues for regulators subject to tight resource constraints. These enable permissiveness and offer scope for strategic regulatory tolerance of some violation types, possibly to raise compliance rates for other types of violations. Drawing on extensive empirical evidence and qualitative data sources in one market sector (hand car washes), this study investigates some key hypotheses focussing on compliance and responses by businesses and regulators to the extant regulatory regime. These inform a pragmatic institutional analysis considering the merits of some movement towards a single enforcement body instead of the existing arrangements featuring multiple regulatory institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had large negative effects on countries' economies and individual well-being throughout the world, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Pandemic-related changes in behavior and government restrictions in Kenya may have negatively affected food supply chains and household food access; however, the empirical evidence is currently limited. Objectives: The study explored changes in informal milk markets, dairy consumption, and food insecurity among low-income households in urban and periurban Nairobi, Kenya, following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country. Methods: Baseline data on milk sales and consumption were collected in late 2019 from dairy vendors operating in the informal sector and their dairy customers. We conducted 2 longitudinal telephone surveys with the same study participants in July and September--October 2020, respectively. Results: At the first follow-up, the volume of milk sold by informal vendors had dropped by 30% compared with their baseline level, and the volume of milk from informal markets consumed by households decreased by 23%. By the second follow-up, the volume of milk sold and consumed had recovered somewhat but remained lower than the volume observed 1 y prior in the same season. Large reductions in the consumption of other animal--sourced products were also observed. The rate of food insecurity increased by 16 and 11 percentage points in the first and second follow-up periods, respectively, compared with baseline. Conclusions: The evidence, therefore, suggests that the timing of the pandemic and the related restrictions were associated with a decrease in the supply and consumption of milk from informal markets in Nairobi and a decrease in the food security of periurban consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Informal work is a significant feature of labour markets in many developed countries, despite having unemployment protection (UP) programmes. We use a model of job search over the duration of unemployment to study how the structure of these programmes influences the incentive of the unemployed to engage in informal work while searching for formal jobs. Accounting for informality enables the model to jointly explain three known features on job search dynamics: a temporary re-employment spike, low search effort, and negative duration dependence. The quantitative analysis finds that both informality and unemployment can be reduced by redistributing (across either workers or programmes), rather than increasing, the overall UP budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the labour market effects and redistributive consequences among natives of the arrival of the Syrian refugees in Turkey. For that, we use the quantitative spatial model developed in Loayza et al. (2021) , in which low- and high-skill workers can choose where to live/work and firms within each region can choose to operate in the formal or informal sectors and, if formal, whether to hire their workers formally or not. We use the estimated model to quantify the effects of the 'refugee shock' on informality, wages, profits, and tax revenues across regions and the country as a whole. We show that informality increases among low-skill but decreases among high-skill workers and the skill premium increases. Wages of low-skill workers decline substantially in the most affected regions, but tax revenues and profits per worker increase. Redistributing tax revenues can substantially reduce low-skill workers' losses in most affected areas. In addition, redistributing profits can completely revert both low- and high-skill workers' losses, even in the most affected regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

External conditions have historically influenced economic outcomes and have also impacted political institutions in developing countries. Focusing on these changes, this article develops a theoretical model of political conflict and democratic stability in a small open developing economy, using as the basis a structuralist macroeconomic model. In this model, political institutions are given in the medium run but vary in the long run as a result of political conflict between capitalists, formal workers, and informal workers excluded from the benefits of social protection. The model suggests that a democratic breakdown is more likely the larger the informal sector, the lower the structural competitiveness of the economy, and the weaker the country's democratic tradition. The model also links the possibility of coups and democratization process with external shocks. Based mainly on the Latin American experience in democratic and dictatorial regimes, the article claims that combining industrial and technological policies—which ease the Balance-of-Payments constraint—with the building of a comprehensive system of social protection is key for the consolidation and stability of democracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the wake of the Venezuelan crisis, Colombian migrants are returning to their place of birth. Since 2016, however, there has been a spike of immigration to Colombia attributable to inflows of the Venezuelan-born. Using high-frequency administrative data, we estimate the impacts of the recent labour supply shock–driven by the economic predicament in Venezuela–on the labour and poverty outcomes of native Colombians. We employ an instrumental variables approach to account for the selection of immigrants into locations with more or less desirable conditions. A 1 percentage point increase in immigration from Venezuela reduces informal sector wages by 10 percentage points in urban areas. As the crisis increased the fraction of migrants by 0.2 percentage points in 2017, we estimate urban wages decreased by a total of 2 percentage points. A dual-pronged approach is warranted to promote the economic assimilation of Venezuelans while protecting the job security of Colombians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the criminal regulation of misoprostol as a controlled drug in Brazil as a new form of abortion criminalization. A qualitative analysis of Brazilian case law shows how the courts use a public health rhetoric of unsafe abortion to criminalize the distribution of misoprostol in the informal sector. Rather than an invention of the local bench, this judicial rhetoric reflects global public health discourse and policy on unsafe abortion and the double life of misoprostol as both an essential medicine and a controlled drug. In contrast to previous studies, the article shows that abortion criminalization is not the cause, but rather the consequence of misoprostol's double life. In the last section, it draws on an outlier judgment of the case law to chart a regulatory future for misoprostol and its supply in the informal sector as a site of harm reduction and safe abortion in public health policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large and growing literature has associated gender equality with better macroeconomic outcomes. However, understanding the channels through which gender equality impacts the economy requires a deeper dive in the main constraints within an economy. Using theoretical and empirical evidence, we explore how gender equality in education feeds into higher human capital levels and thus better macroeconomic outcomes. We also analyse the impact of inequities in the labour market, focusing also on the role of the informal sector. Finally, we provide an overview on policy options to address various gender gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze a unique episode in the history of monetary economics, the 2016 Indian "demonetization." This policy made 86% of cash in circulation illegal tender overnight, with new notes gradually introduced over the next several months. We present a model of demonetization where agents hold cash both to satisfy a cash-in-advance constraint and for tax evasion purposes. We test the predictions of the model in the cross-section of Indian districts using several novel data sets including: the geographic distribution of demonetized and new notes for causal inference; night light activity and employment surveys to measure economic activity including in the informal sector; debit/credit cards and e-wallet transactions data; and banking data on deposit and credit growth. Districts experiencing more severe demonetization had relative reductions in economic activity, faster adoption of alternative payment technologies, and lower bank credit growth. The cross-sectional responses cumulate to a contraction in aggregate employment and night lights–based output due to the the cash shortage of at least 2 percentage points and of bank credit of 2 percentage points in 2016Q4 relative to their counterfactual paths, effects that dissipate over the next few months. Our analysis rejects monetary nonneutrality using a large-scale natural experiment, something that is still rare in the vast literature on the effects of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Agate workers in Khambhat, India and their community members are exposed to high levels of silica dust and related diseases. Use of effective prevention practices remains low, prompting the need for effective interventions which increase the uptake of and investment in prevention practices. We sought: (a) to describe knowledge, self‐efficacy, and practices among a population of workers, their family members, and neighbors involved in or located close to agate processing; and (b) to explore which factors are related to use of prevention practices and willingness to invest in new dust control technologies. Methods: A community survey was conducted to measure demographics, occupation and financial factors, knowledge, prevention practices, barriers, risk perceptions, and efficacy beliefs. Descriptive statistics were used and, among agate workers, hierarchical logistic regression explored predictors of prevention practice use and willingness to invest. Results: Among 1120 respondents, approximately 44%, 35%, and 8% of workers, family members, and neighbors used prevention practices, respectively. Knowledge and risk perceptions were generally high, where efficacy beliefs were low. Workers who had high levels of education, worked at home, and had high efficacy beliefs were more likely to report using prevention practices and being willing to invest. Barriers to prevention practice use included financial barriers, and beliefs that prevention is ineffective and health is not at risk. Conclusions: Interventions and future research should be designed to engage the community to improve preventive behavior, and implement affordable and effective dust control interventions in the agate industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Tanzania, the health financing system is extremely fragmented with strategies in place to supplement funds provided from the central level. One of these strategies is the Community Health Fund (CHF), a voluntary health insurance scheme for the informal rural sector. As its implementation has been challenging, we investigated different CHF implementation practices and how these practices and the wider health financing context affect CHF implementation and potentially enrolment. Two councils were purposively selected for this study. Routine data relevant for understanding CHF implementation in the wider health financing context were collected at council and public health facility level. Additionally, an economic costing approach was used to estimate CHF administration cost and analyse its financing sources. Our results showed the importance of considering different CHF implementation practices and the wider health financing context when looking at CHF performance. Exemption policies and healthcare-seeking behaviour influenced negatively the maximum potential enrolment rate of the voluntary CHF scheme. Higher revenues from user fees, user fee policies and fund pooling mechanisms might have furthermore set incentives for care providers to prioritize user fees over CHF revenues. Costing results clearly pointed out the lack of financial sustainability of the CHF. The financial analysis however also showed that thanks to significant contributions from other health financing mechanisms to CHF administration, the CHF could be left with more than 70% of its revenues for financing services. To make the CHF work, major improvements in CHF implementation practices would be needed, but given the wider health financing context and healthcare-seeking behaviours, it is questionable whether such improvements are feasible, scalable and value for money. Thus, our results call for a reconsideration of approaches taken to address the challenges in health financing and demonstrate that the CHF cannot be looked at as a stand-alone system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People working in Ghana's informal sector have low rates of enrolment in the publicly funded National Health Insurance Scheme. Informal sector workers, including migrant girls and women from northern Ghana working as head porters (kayayei), report challenges obtaining insurance and seeking formal health care. This article analyses how health insurance status affects kayayei migrants' care-seeking behaviours. This mixed-methods study involved surveying 625 migrants using respondent-driven sampling and conducting in-depth interviews with a sub-sample of 48 migrants. Analyses explore health status and health seeking behaviours for recent illness/injury. Binary logistic regression modelled the effects of selected independent variables on whether or not a recently ill/injured participant (n = 239) sought health care. Although recently ill/injured participants (38.4%) desired health care, less than half (43.5%) sought care. Financial barriers overwhelmingly limit kayayei migrants from seeking health care, preventing them from registering with the National Health Insurance Scheme, renewing their expired health insurance policies, or taking time away from work. Both insured and uninsured migrants did not seek formal health services due to the unpredictable nature of out-of-pocket expenses. Catastrophic and impoverishing medical expenses also drove participants' migration in search of work to repay loans and hospital bills. Health insurance can help minimize these expenditures, but only 17.4% of currently insured participants (58.2%) reported holding a valid health insurance card in Accra. The others lost their cards or forgot them when migrating. Access to formal health care in Accra remains largely inaccessible to kayayei migrants who suffer from greater illness/injury than the general female population in Accra and who are hindered in their ability to receive insurance exemptions. With internal migration on the rise in many settings, health systems must recognize the varied needs of populations in multi-ethnic and multilingual countries to ensure that internal migrants can access affordable, quality health services across domestic borders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The informal sector is often seen as a way for firms to evade regulation. In this paper, I therefore investigate the role of the informal sector in the impact of trade liberalization on employment, wage inequality and welfare in a model of trade with heterogeneous firms and endogenous wage dispersion. The findings suggest that trade liberalization reduces informal employment unambiguously. Contrary to the extant literature, however, its impact on total salaried employment, wage inequality and welfare is country-specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses corporate-led jobless growth propelled by development-induced displacement caused by land acquisition by the State. It shows as its inevitable outcome an expanding informal sector which encroaches upon land-related natural resources allocated to the corporate sector. This reduces the latter's labour productivity and competitiveness along with negative impact on environment and social cohesion. Using the example of India as a multiparty democracy, the paper points to the emergence of a dangerous developmental politics of mutualism between political parties and corporations over land acquisition, which subverts the very democratic process through which political power is wielded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2004, the World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) jointly revised the recommended treatment for acute paediatric diarrhoea to specify supplementing reduced osmolarity oral rehydration salts (ORS) with zinc. In many countries, however, a significant knowledge-practice gap persists in appropriate diarrhoea management among private healthcare providers. For example, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)-funded Strengthening Health Outcomes through the Private Sector (SHOPS) project recently demonstrated that over-the-counter medicine sellers (MS) in Ghana recommended inappropriate diarrhoea treatments, despite their demonstrated knowledge of appropriate treatment protocols. To explore and explain these results, we conducted 26 focus groups with MS and their customers using an indirect elicitation approach, presenting simulated drug shop transaction scenarios for each group to analyze and discuss. Through inductive and deductive data analysis, we found that the pattern of customer-MS interactions within the transactional context plays a critical role in shaping dispensing outcomes, not only in diarrhoea management but in other contexts as well. MS who engaged and negotiated with their customers were better able to introduce and promote the appropriate diarrhoea treatment protocol. Several factors hinder optimal interactions. Although MS in fact serve as frontline medical providers, they lack the perceived status of a clinician. Moreover, the need to maintain their customer base creates a power imbalance that favours accommodating customer requests and discourages educational interaction. Finally, many MS lack a complete understanding of the recommended treatment, limiting their ability to educate and negotiate. These findings have important implications for efforts to position community-level private providers to improve outcomes across a number of health areas; the study recommends three broad approaches related to training design, marketing, and professional linkages. More generally, behaviour change initiatives should recognize the potential impact of provider interaction dynamics in facilitating or impeding desired health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Informal employment is a pervasive and persistent feature of most developing and developed economies. Labour taxation and labour market regulations are deemed two major causes for operating in the informal sector. Using data from France, Italy, and Spain, we analyse gross job flows and gross worker flows in the formal and informal sectors in the presence of lenient employment protection legislation, and investigate the way traditional policy interventions may favour transitions from one sector to the other. We show that optimal outcomes in terms of reduction and formalisation of informal jobs across the three countries examined are achieved with the combination of lower payroll taxes for permanent contracts and higher inspection rate for firms operating in the informal sector. Coupling lower firing costs with more frequent labour inspections also reduces informality, but this comes at the cost of an increased ratio of temporary to total employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a search-theoretic model of contractual dualism in formal and informal labour markets. The model (i) provides the micro-underpinnings for endogenous determination of employer market power in the formal and informal sectors, (ii) offers a unified and coherent set-up whereby a host of salient features of developing country labour markets can be explained together and (iii) places for the first time the Stiglerian prescription of the optimal (unemployment minimising) minimum wage in the broader context of labour markets where formal job creation is costly, where employer market power is endogenous and where formal employment, informal employment and unemployment coexist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]