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textabstractWe set out to develop a method and research technique that could unite both modelling and case-based observations in order to analyse collective decision-making processes. Following Abbott’s (2001) recommendation regarding social processes, we have defined collective decision-making as an uninterrupted and non-directional process that is structured in sequences or lineages of events. To structure these processes, we re-modelled the basic components of Kauffman’s (1993) NK-model. We converted N to ‘problem and solution definitions’ (PSDs) and K to ‘connectedness’ between actors (c_score). An important modification is that we consider NK to be a dependent configuration; i.e., K entails both content and process. Fitness is defined as the probability of an actor achieving (elements of) its PSD as a result of its adaptive moves in relation to the adaptive moves of others. The model is put to the test in four different studies: (1) 20 years of decision-making in planning, building and servicing HSL-Zuid high-speed railways in the Netherlands; (2) the strategic search process of villages and cantons in the Gotthard region of Switzerland; (3) the redevelopment of a football stadium and the surrounding area in south Rotterdam, the Netherlands; and (4) the rise and fall of the Airport RailLink in Bangkok, Thailand. From these studies, we derived six archetypes in collection decision-making, subdivided into actor archetypes and interaction archetypes. For the actor archetypes, behavioural consistency is not just a trait for the actor but also affects the space of possibilities and/or behaviours of other actors. The interactions of individual actors combine to produce self-propagating dynamics that drive the further evolution of the collective decision-making process. The fitness field model enables researchers to investigate the various dimensions of the collective decision-making process – ranging from individual strategies and actions to variation, selection and retention of contents, from interactions to fitness gains and losses, and back again.

markdownabstract__Abstract__ Met het terzijde stellen van de Fyra V250-treinen is een nieuwe wending bereikt in de twintig jaar dat Nederland probeert een hoge-snelheidslijn op de rails te krijgen. De logische vraag is wie er schuldig is aan dit dieptepunt. In dit artikel analyseren we de 20 jaar van besluitvorming aan de hand van de economische theorie over padafhankelijkheid in besluitvorming. Op basis van een uitgebreide inhoudsanalyse van meer dan 1200 documenten concluderen we dat, gegeven alle eerdere besluiten met betrekking tot o.a. de bouw en de concessieverlening, de keuze voor de V250 een noodgedwongen en onvermijdelijke gok was. Alle betrokkenen, van NS tot Tweede Kamer, blijken bij te dragen aan het vastlopen van dit project. In spring 2013, the Dutch railway operator High Speed Alliance cancelled the acceptance procedures for the V250 high-speed train sets they ordered from Italian manufacturer AnsaldoBreda after numerous problems with the build quality and safety systems. It is the latest chapter in a series of failing attempts to build and run a high-speed railway link between Amsterdam and Paris. Inevitably, the question of who was responsible for the decision to order the V250 has become prominent. We analyze 20 years of public decision-making by means of content analysis of over 1200 documents. Using David's and Arthur’s theory of path-dependency, we conclude that all the decisions that were taken during those two decades created a situation in which the choice for the V250 was nothing more than an inevitable gamble. It can therefore be concluded that all parties involved, from the railway operator to the Parliament, have contributed to the current failure.