Search

The paper is discussing CNB FX intervention and its impact on all segments of Czech financial markets from process and volumes of transactions point of view and possible consequences. The focus is on foreign exchange, bond and stock market. Although the impact of FX intervention was evident on all markets under discussion, it was not so significant having macroeconomic effects. The only exception is the FX market. The Czech National Bank contributed to the widening gap between market and equilibrium exchange rate. The undervalued Czech currency will have a temporal positive impact on the macroeconomic external balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the purpose of monetary policy analyses dynamic multivariate models are usually applied. The reason is the presence of significant lags between an action and the appropriate effects in the economy. We use the concept of structural VAR models, widely used approach next to the DSGE and simultaneous equations models. We estimate four and five variable VAR containing the key macroeconomic indicators and identify monetary transmission mechanism using SVAR. Using different identification schemes and impulse response functions we compare the effect of a restrictive monetary policy shock on the set of analyzed variables, especially price level. We also compare the results of defined models for the Czech and Polish economies, that both intend to enter EMU. To avoid the possibility of a price puzzle effect, as a result of mixing policy regimes in the sample period, we use data from single monetary policy regime starting 1998, when the Czech central bank switched to the inflation targeting regime. The results indicate high sensitivity to the identification schemes in SVAR and not significant differences between responses to monetary policy shock in CR and Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]