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To research the evaluation of land ecological security in Shandong Province, and provide reference for the protection of land ecological security in Shandong, this paper, based on the PSR model, built a land ecological security assessment index system of Shandong Province from three aspects:pressure, state and response. The entropy weight method and improved TOPSIS were employed in the study on the spatial difference of land ecological security among cities in Shandong in 2013. The results showed that:(1)The grade of the land ecological security evaluation in Shandong Province included "relatively safety", "critical safety" and "less safety". The spatial differences were obviously, with the grade gradually decreased from the east coast to the west inland;(2)The main factors influencing the spatial difference of land ecological security in Shandong were the per capita cultivated land, per capita water resources, land output rate, grain yield per unit area, economic density, environmental investment accounted for GDP, agricultural mechanization level. These were the focus of land ecological security regulation in the future. The evaluation index system based on PSR model can reflect the relationship among the factors of land ecological system, and the TOPSIS can reveal the gap between the land ecological security and it's ideal state. So, the results reflect the land ecological security situation of the study area comparatively accurate.

In order to explore the law of land use change in Laiwu City, Markov and GM(1,1) were respectively employed in the prediction of land use change in Laiwu from 2015 to 2050, after which the results were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that:(1)The variational trends of all kinds of land use change predicted by the two models were consistent and the goodness of fit of the predictive value in corresponding years in the near future was high, illustrating that the predicted results in the near future were credible and the trend predicted in mid long term could be used as reference. (2)The cultivated land would remanin almost no change from 2015 to 2020, and then gradually decreaseed in a small range from 2020 to 2050. The garden, the woodland, the grassland always reducing and the decreare range of the grassland was the largest. The urban village and industrial and mining land, the transportation land would be continuously increased and the range of urban village and industrial and mining land was the largest. The water and water conservancy facilities land and the other land would be always reduced in a very small range. It could be concluded that the results predicted by the two models in the near future were credible and could provide scientific basis for land use planning of Laiwu, while the method could provide reference for the prediction of land use change.