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Objective: To investigate risk factors for early mortality (EM) in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) and to build an EM-predictive model. Methods: In a cohort of 275 patients with NDMM, risk factors for EM at 6, 12, and 24 months after diagnosis (EM6, EM12, and EM24, respectively) were determined to establish a model to predict EM. Results: The rates of EM6, EM12, and EM24 were 5.5% , 12.7% , and 30.2% , respectively. The most common cause for EM was disease progression/relapse, accounting for 60.0% , 77.1% , and 84.3% of EM6, EM12, and EM24, respectively. EM6 was associated with corrected serum calcium >2.75 mmol/L and platelet count <100×10(9)/L, whereas risk factors for EM12 included age >75 years, ISS Ⅲ, R-ISS Ⅲ, corrected serum calcium >2.75 mmol/L, serum creatinine >177 µmol/L, platelet count <100×10(9)/L, and bone marrow plasma cell ratio ≥ 60% . In addition to the risk factors for EM12, EM24 was also associated with male sex and 1q21 gain. By multivariate analysis, age >75 years, platelet count <100×10(9)/L, and 1q21 gain were independent risk factors for EM24 but there were no independent risk factors significantly associated with EM6 and EM12. Using a scoring system including these three risk factors, a Cox model for EM24 was generated to distinguish patients with low (score<3) and high (score ≥ 3) risk. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 20.7% and 99.2% , respectively. Further, an internal validation performed in a cohort of 183 patients with NDMM revealed that the probability of EM24 in high-risk patients was 26 times higher than that in low-risk patients. Moreover, this model was also able to predict overall survival. The median overall survival of patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 were 59, 41, 22, 17.5, and 16 months, respectively. Conclusion: In the study cohort, the EM6, EM12, and EM24 rates were 5.5% , 12.7% , and 30.2% , respectively, and disease progression or relapse were main causes of EM. An EM24-predictive model built on three independent risk factors for EM24 (age>75 years, platelet count<100×10(9)/L, and 1q21 gain) might predict EM risk and overall survival.

Objectives: To explore the basic clinical characteristics and relevant factors affecting the early postoperative prognosis in patients with infective endocarditis (IE)., Methods: A total of 702 patients with IE, who underwent surgery in Xiangya Hospital, Central South University from January 1981 to June 2019, were studied and the data were collected through the paper records and the hospital information system. The patients from January 1981 to June 2010 served as an early group ( n =224), and other patients from July 2010 to June 2019 served as a recent group ( n =478). Independent risk factors for early postoperative death were determined by logistic regression analysis., Results: The mean age of the 702 patients was 36.7±16.1 years, and the male accounted for 68.1%. Preoperative stroke occurred in 71 patients (10.1%), and dialysis was done in 14 patients (2%) preoperatively. Streptococcus were the pathogenic bacteria in 172 patients, accounting for 59.5% of all positive blood culture results. In the early group, the percentage of IE combined with congenital heart disease was significantly higher than that in the recent group [77 patients (34.4%) in the early group vs 22 patients (4.6%) in the recent group; P <0.05]. Postoperative stroke occurred in 15 patients (2.1%), while 59 patients (7%) required new dialysis postoperatively because of renal insufficiency. Twenty-nine patient died in the post-operation, with 4.1% in 30-day mortality. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the high preoperative New York Heart Association (NYHA) grade of cardiac function (OR=3.22, 95% CI 1.50-6.88; P <0.01), postoperative stroke (OR=5.75, 95% CI 1.22-27.07; P <0.05), postoperative dialysis (OR=15.53, 95% CI 3.50-68.82; P <0.01), perivalvular abscess (OR=13.19, 95% CI 3.83-45.42; P <0.01) and multivalve involvement (OR=3.57, 95% CI 1.24-10.30; P <0.05) were the independent risk factors for early mortality., Conclusions: Streptococcus is the most common pathogenic bacteria in the patients with IE. Surgery for IE can obtain a satisfactory early outcomes. High preoperative NYHA grade of cardiac function, postoperative stroke, postoperative dialysis, perivalvular abscess and multivalve involvement are the independent risk factors for early mortality.