1. [Course of disease and related epidemiological parameters of COVID-19: a prospective study based on contact tracing cohort].
- Author
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Zhou Y, Liang WJ, Chen ZH, Liu T, Song T, Chen SW, Wang P, Li JL, Lan YH, Cheng MJ, Huang JX, Niu JW, Xiao JP, Hu JX, Lin LF, Huang Q, Deng AP, Tan XH, Kang M, Chen GM, Dong MR, Zhong HJ, and Ma W
- Subjects
- Cohort Studies, Humans, Incidence, Prospective Studies, COVID-19, Contact Tracing
- Abstract
Objective: To analyze the course of disease and epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and provide evidence for making prevention and control strategies. Methods: To display the distribution of course of disease of the infectors who had close contacts with COVID-19 cases from January 1 to March 15, 2020 in Guangdong Provincial, the models of Lognormal, Weibull and gamma distribution were applied. A descriptive analysis was conducted on the basic characteristics and epidemiological parameters of course of disease. Results: In total, 515 of 11 580 close contacts were infected, with an attack rate about 4.4%, including 449 confirmed cases and 66 asymptomatic cases. Lognormal distribution was fitting best for latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period of confirmed cases and infection period of asymptomatic cases; Gamma distribution was fitting best for infectious period and clinical symptom period of confirmed cases; Weibull distribution was fitting best for latent period of asymptomatic cases. The latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period, infectious period and clinical symptoms period of confirmed cases were 4.50 (95% CI :3.86-5.13) days, 5.12 (95% CI :4.63-5.62) days, 0.87 (95% CI :0.67-1.07) days, 11.89 (95% CI :9.81-13.98) days and 22.00 (95% CI :21.24-22.77) days, respectively. The latent period and infectious period of asymptomatic cases were 8.88 (95% CI :6.89-10.86) days and 6.18 (95% CI :1.89-10.47) days, respectively. Conclusion: The estimated course of COVID-19 and related epidemiological parameters are similar to the existing data.
- Published
- 2022
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