1. Study on morbidity of grey Verhulst forecasting model.
- Author
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CUI Jie, LIU Si-feng, XIE Nai-ming, and ZENG Bo
- Subjects
- *
GREY relational analysis , *COEFFICIENTS (Statistics) , *MATRICES (Mathematics) , *PERTURBATION theory , *MATHEMATICS - Abstract
Aiming to reveal the changing law of modeling accuracy of grey Verhulst model resulted from the small perturbation of primitive sequence, we took the spectrum condition number of matrix as a tool of measuring the morbidity of this model and analyzed the value of conditions of coefficient matrix. The research result shows that only when the first data point of original data sequence be a constant (constant >0) and the rest of data points be all 0, this model will appear to be a serious morbid problem, however, at this time, it is meaningless to build a grey Verhulst model by using a raw data sequence with an inherent law for prediction. The research conclusion suggests that grey Verhulst model has no morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014