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Objectives: Length of day variation (ΔLOD) predictions play an important role in tracking and navigation of deep-space detector, precise determination of artificial satellite orbit and climate forecasting. In full consideration of the time-varying characteristics of ΔLOD, we present the application of a hybrid technique for predicting ΔLOD. Methods: The ΔLOD predictions are generated by means of the combination of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) extrapolation for the linear trend, annual and semiannual oscillations in ΔLOD based on an iterative interpolation strategy, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) stochastic prediction of SSA remaining residuals, referred to as SSA+ARIMA. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this approach, the ΔLOD predictions up to 365 d into the future are calculated year-by-year for the 2-year period from Jan. 1,2000 to Dec. 31, 2001 using the data covering the previous 10 years from International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service C04 series. The prediction results are analyzed and compared with those obtained by machine learning methods such as back propagation neural network (BPNN), general regression neural network (GRNN) and Gaussian process (GP). Results: It is shown that the accuracy of the predictions are better than that by machine learning methods in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE) of predictions, especially for medium and long-term predictions. Compared with the predictions obtained by the BPNN, GRNN and GP, the MAE of the proposed SSA+ARIMA predictions up to 30 d and 365 d in future is reduced by 39% and 61%, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed method provides a new solution for ΔLOD prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: There are obvious seasonal variations in the GPS height time series, which affect the improvement of precision and can be corrected by both mathematical modelling and geophysical mechanisms. Compared to least square fitting, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) can extract random seasonal signals effectively through signal reconstruction, which is unaffected by the assumed sinusoidal waves. According to the elastic loading theory, the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) can be used to calculate the vertical surface displacement caused by changes in terrestrial water storage. Methods: This paper mainly studies the feasibility of correcting the seasonal variations in GPS heights using SSA and GRACE inversion results. The height time series of 27 GPS stations in Australia with a time span of from 5 to 10 years were chosen and combined with GRACE simultaneous inversions. Results: Because the spatial resolutions of GRACE are coarse and the loading displacement is much more sensitive to near‑field mass changes than far‑field ones, the amplitudes of GRACE ‑inferred hydrological loading deformations are significantly smaller than GPS. The weighted root mean square (WRMS) are reduced at 22 stations after GRACE ‑inferred displacement corrections, and the correlation coefficients between deformations estimated by GPS and GRACE range from 0.12 to 0.78 with a mean value of 0.43, indicating that GPS and GRACE results have good consistency and correlation. SSA is used to extract the annual signals of vertical displacements derived from GPS and GRACE, and contribution rates of singular spectral variance of annual signals are 21.60% and 34.48%, respectively, expressing that annual signals are the main components of GRACE inferred results. Geographical climatic conditions have a significant impact on the consistency of annual signals derived from GPS and GRACE. Compared with the arid areas in central and western Australia, the amplitude and phase of annual signals derived from GPS and GRACE are more consistent in the northern region with seasonal rainfall. Furthermore, cross wavelet transform (XWT) finds that the vertical displacement series derived from GPS and GRACE of each station have a significant resonance period of one year. The circular average phase angles of GPS/GRACE at the period closet to 1 cycle per year (cpy) outside the cone of influence range from − 74.03° to 67.23° . The mean XWT ‑ based semblances range from 0.28 to 0.99 with an average value of 0.79, showing that there is a significant positive correlation between the annual variations derived from GPS and GRACE. Conclusions: Overall, GRACE‑inferred deformations can explain the annual variations of GPS‑derived displacements, particularly in areas with high hydrological loading. It is possible to correct the annual signals of GPS heights by GRACE inversions, but the effect is not as good as the SSA‑filtered annual signals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]