Search

Malaysia's economy suffers from high public expenditures, especially current expenditures, which has led to a high percentage of the budget deficit. The research aims to identify the macroeconomic variables affecting the budget deficit in Malaysia and to identify the existence of a long-term relationship and a causality relationship between the budget deficit in Malaysia as a dependent variable, and the independent variables explaining it. The research relied on descriptive and quantitative analysis methods, as based on a variety of statistical and econometrics methods, including the use of the growth function, the unit root test (ADF), cointegration analysis and the Granger causality test to ensure the existence of causality between variables and determine the direction of that relationship. The research was based on annual time series data covering the period 1990-2019. The study model included: the budget deficit variable in Malaysia (% of GDP) as a dependent variable, while the independent variables are: government spending, fixed capital formation, public debt, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, average interest rate, and economic growth rate. The stability of the variables was tested using the ADF test in order to determine the degree of stability of the variables. The results showed that the time series under study are not stable at the level, but they are all stable at their first differences I(1). The results of the multiple regression model showed that the signs of the coefficients of the independent variables are consistent with economic logic, and that together they explain about 87.1 percent of the changes in the budget deficit in Malaysia during the study period. The regression coefficients for the variables of government expenditure, fixed capital formation, and foreign direct investment were positive to express the existence of a direct relationship between these independent variables and the budget deficit in Malaysia, as a dependent variable, while it is noted that the regression coefficient for the variables of public debt and the exchange rate The average interest rate and economic growth rate were negative, which is consistent with economic theory. It also turns out that the most important relative variable in influencing the dependent variable in the previous estimated model is the public debt variable, while the average interest rate variable comes in last. The results of cointegration indicated the presence of three vectors of cointegration between these variables, which confirms the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the public budget deficit in Malaysia and the independent variables affecting it. The results of the Granger causality test also indicated the existence of a unidirectional causal relationship heading from government spending to the budget deficit, meaning that increasing government spending causes a budget deficit, and the existence of a unidirectional causal relationship that goes from foreign direct investment to the budget deficit, from the average interest rate to the budget deficit, and from the budget deficit to the exchange rate, and it also shows the existence of a causal relationship. There is a bidirectional relationship between the size of the public debt and the public budget deficit, and between the economic growth rate and the budget deficit in Malaysia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Zarqa Journal for Research & Studies in Humanities is the property of Zarqa Journal for Research & Studies in Humanities and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The study aimed to analyze the evolution of the structure of the Egyptian agriculture foreign trade, since the beginning of the twenty-first century. by examines the impact of the most important economic changes during the period 2000-2021. The study relied on use of descriptive and quantitative statistical analysis methods such as time-trend equations, the co-integration test and vector error correction model VECM. The study period was divided into three periods. Result of study showed that period 2016-2021 was the most difficult period of national economic growth, as it was shown a slowdown in the growth rates of agricultural exports, reaching 12.7% in the first period 2000-2007, 2.9% in the second period 2008-2015, and 2.3% in the third period 2016-2021, and the Annual change rates of agricultural imports reached 3.8% in the first period 2000-2007, reached 11.9% in the second period 2008-2015, and reached 10.5% in the third period 2016-2021.The stability of the time series of variables for the time period 2000-2021 at the first level was shown in Intercept as well as a categorical intercept and trend, and by conducting the Johansen test, it was found that there is a integration between the study variables and both agricultural exports and imports, and for a balance between them it is necessary to delay three time periods, and by applying the error correction model The vector VECM showed an inverse relationship between agricultural imports and both the exchange rate and the global food price index (FAO), as well as an inverse relationship between the exchange rate and agricultural exports, and a direct relationship between agricultural exports and the world food price index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Scientific Journal of King Faisal University, Humanities & Management Sciences is the property of Association of Arab Universities and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Roa Iktissadia Review is the property of Roa Iktissadia Review and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Roa Iktissadia Review is the property of Roa Iktissadia Review and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Roa Iktissadia Review is the property of Roa Iktissadia Review and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Zarqa Journal for Research & Studies in Humanities is the property of Zarqa Journal for Research & Studies in Humanities and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Roa Iktissadia Review is the property of Roa Iktissadia Review and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Roa Iktissadia Review is the property of Roa Iktissadia Review and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)