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In this paper, the multi-polar coupling mid-long term prediction method based on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was introduced into the upper reaches of the Yellow River where China's water resources are relatively scarce. A mid-long term prediction model for the inflow runoff of Longyangxia Reservoir in the upper reaches of the Yellow River was constructed based on SST. The influence factors that dominate the runoff in the upper reaches of the Yellow River were found. The case study shows that the model built in this paper significantly reduces the forecast error (the forecast error decreases from -21% to -2.5% during the period from April to June 2018), which verifies the rationality of the model, the effectiveness of introducing the new technology and the stability of forecasting accuracy. It provides reference for other projects of medium and long-term runoff forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focused on the medium and long-term runoff forecasting technology, main models, forecasting system and its application in the Yellow River basin, which served for water regulation and looked forward to the future development direction of runoff forecasting in the Yellow River basin. The medium and long-term runoff forecasting model of the Yellow River was based on the influencing factors of hydrological series and their own evolution law at each control station, according to the different periods and different influencing factors at each station, appropriate statistical methods were selected to establish the model respectively. The non-flood season runoff forecasting model was mainly based on the previous runoff and precipitation as forecasting factors and was established by multiple regression analysis, threshold regression analysis and time series analysis. The runoff in flood season was strongly influenced by precipitation, and the precipitation was mainly affected by atmospheric circulation, so the forecasting factors were selected from the previous circulation factors and the runoff forecasting model in flood season was established. The natural runoff forecasting model was mainly established by the methods of observation runoff reduction, time series analysis and correlation of atmospheric and oceanic physical factors. The establishment of medium and long-term runoff forecasting model and forecasting system of the Yellow River had improved the technical level and ability of runoff forecasting in the Yellow River basin. In the 20-year integrated water resources management in the Yellow River basin from 1999 to 2018, accurate annual water forecasting and ten-day and monthly runoff forecasting had been provided, in which the annual average forecast error of the total natural runoff at Huayuankou Station was 3.7% and the minimum forecast error was 0.6%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]