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BACKGROUND Clinically significant post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) bacteremia (PEB) occurs in up to 5% of cases, while antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended only when an ERCP is unlikely to achieve complete biliary drainage. However, the current recommendations may not cover all potential risk factors for PEB. AIM To identify novel risk factors for PEB and evaluate appropriateness of antibiotic prophylaxis. METHODS A retrospective study of 1082 ERCP procedures performed between January 2012 - December 2013 in a single tertiary medical center. Data collection included: Demographic and clinical characteristics such as pre and post procedure antibiotic treatment and bacterial blood cultures. Exclusion criteria were: (1) Age < 18 years; (2) Positive bacterial blood culture before ERCP; (3) Scheduled antibiotic treatment prior to ERCP; (4) Hospitalization longer than 14 d before ERCP; and (5) missing critical data. Stepwise Logistic Regression analysis and Decision Tree algorithms were used for prediction modeling of PEB. RESULTS A total of 626 ERCPs performed in 434 patients were included. Mean age 66.49 ± 15.4 years and 46.5% were males. PEB prevalence was 3.7%. Antibiotic prophylaxis was administrated in 139/626 (22.2%) cases but was indicated according to the guidelines only in 44/626 (7%) cases. In all the PEB cases, prophylaxis was deemed not indicated. A stepwise logistic regression [receiver operating characteristic (ROC), 0.766], identified 3 variables as independent risk factors for PEB: Age at ERCP ≥ 75 years (OR, 3.780, 95%CI: 1.519-9.408, P = 0.004); Tandem EUS/ERCP with fine needle aspiration (FNA) (OR, 14.528, 95%CI: 3.571-59.095, P < 0.001); ERCP duration longer than 60 min (OR, 5.396, 95%CI: 1.86-15.656, P = 0.002). In a decision tree model (ROC, 0.778) the probability for PEB without any risk factors was 1% regardless of prophylaxis administration. CONCLUSION The prevalence of PEB in our study is similar to previous reports, despite the fact that antibiotic prophylaxis was administrated more readily than recommended. ERCP duration longer than 60 min, tandem EUS-ERCP with FNA and age above 75 years are significant risk factors for PEB. These factors should be further evaluated as indications for prophylactic antibiotic treatment before ERCP.

AIM To investigate the cost effectiveness of routine small bowel biopsies (SBBs) in patients with iron deficiency anemia (IDA) independent of their celiac disease (CD) serology test results. METHODS We used a state transition Markov model. Two strategies were compared: routine SBBs during esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) in all patients with IDA regardless their celiac serology status (strategy A) vs SBBs only in IDA patients with positive serology (strategy B). The main outcomes were quality adjusted life years (QALY), average cost and the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER). One way sensitivity analysis was performed on all variables and two way sensitivity analysis on selected variables were done. In order to validate the results, a Monte Carlo simulation of 100 sample trials with 10, and an acceptability curve were performed. RESULTS Strategy A of routine SBBs yielded 19.888 QALYs with a cost of $218.10 compared to 19.887 QALYs and $234.17 in strategy B. In terms of cost-effectiveness, strategy A was the dominant strategy, as long as the cost of SBBs stayed less than $67. In addition, the ICER of strategy A was preferable, providing the cost of biopsy stays under $77. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated that strategy A yielded the same QALY but with lower costs than strategy B. CONCLUSION Our model suggests that EGD with routine SBBs is a cost-effective approach with improved QALYs in patients with IDA when the prevalence of CD is 5% or greater. SBBs should be a routine screening tool for CD among patients with IDA, regardless of their celiac antibody status.