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History, not predictions of CGE models or cross-country growth studies, shows a strong relationship between trade and development. Vietnam's experience with bilateral trade agreements, comparing actual outcomes with predictions from existing models, demonstrates this and the limitations of research methodologies. Forecasts for Vietnam greatly underestimated the impact of past agreements because tariff reform was not the main factor driving adjustments. Addressing market imperfections through institutional reform was central to bringing output and trade expansion. Key questions for future research are whether policy reform will result in new institutional changes, and how resulting incentives determine the evolution of investment by sector. Key words--trade and development, trade liberalization, bilateral trade agreements, WTO accession, Vietnam

This paper analyzes how economic and non-economic characteristics at the individual, household, and community level affect the risk of victimization in Mozambique. We use a countrywide representative household survey from Mozambique with unique individual level information and show that the probability of being victimized is increasing in income, but at a diminishing rate. The effect of income is dependent on the type of crime, and poorer households are vulnerable. While less at risk of victimization, they suffer relatively greater losses when such shocks occur. Lower inequality and increased community level employment emerge as effective avenues to less crime. JEL classification--K40, K42, O55 Key words--victimization, crime, Mozambique

This paper demonstrates that developing countries differ considerably from their developed counterparts when focus is on the nature and characteristics of short-run macroeconomic fluctuations. Cycles are generally shorter, and the stylized facts of business cycles across countries are more diverse than those of the rather uniform industrialized countries. Supply-side models are generally superior in explaining changes in output, but a 'one-size fits all' approach in formulating policy is inappropriate. Our results also illustrate the critical importance of understanding business regularities as a stepping-stone in the process of designing appropriate stabilization policy and macroeconomic management in developing countries. Key words--business cycles, detrending, developing countries, empirical regularities

Interactions between agricultural technology improvements, risk-reducing behavior, and gender roles in agricultural production in Mozambique are examined. The analysis employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that explicitly incorporates key features of the economy. These include: detailed accounting of marketing margins, home consumption, risk, and gender roles in agricultural production. Our results show that agricultural technology improvements benefit both male and female occupants of rural households. Due to economic interactions, agricultural technology improvements are particularly compelling when combined with marketing system improvements. Moreover, technological change in cassava appears to be a particularly strong lever for increasing female and overall household welfare, especially when risk is considered.