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Participatory development is designed to mitigate problems of political bias in pre-existing local government but also interacts with it in complex ways. Using a five-year randomized controlled study in 97 clusters of villages (194 villages) in Ghana, we analyze the effects of a major participatory development program on participation in, leadership of and investment by preexisting political institutions, and on households’ overall socioeconomic well-being. Applying theoretical insights on political participation and redistributive politics, we consider the possibility of both cross-institutional mobilization and displacement, and heterogeneous effects by partisanship. We find the government and its political supporters acted with high expectations for the participatory approach: treatment led to increased participation in local governance and reallocation of resources. But the results did not meet expectations, resulting in a worsening of socioeconomic wellbeing in treatment versus control villages for government supporters. This demonstrates international aid’s complex distributional consequences. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

SummaryThis paper uses UNICEF’s Multiple Indicators Cluster Surveys cross-country data to shed light on unequal investments in the wellbeing of children (boys and girls) within the household. The paper proposes a new methodology to measure the extent of gender intrahousehold inequality and its contribution to overall levels of inequality using an L-Theil index decomposition. The individual and joint distribution of inequality in four key indicators of child wellbeing is analyzed: stunting, birth registration, school attendance, and time spent on work and chores (working hours) in the search for evidence of gender bias. Evidence from various separate county studies had shown that the direction of the gender bias is not universal. Such conclusion holds when using a consistent methodology and comparable cross-country datasets; this paper shows that disparities inside households do not follow the same bias toward one or the other gender in all countries and the direction of the bias is not the same across indicators of wellbeing. While progress in improving child wellbeing has occurred in many countries, inequalities remain. Intrahousehold inequalities might still be considered a priority in an agenda focused on closing these progress gaps.

This introduction to a special section describes how a recently developed measure, the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI) can be used to assess empowerment impacts of agricultural development interventions in India and Bangladesh as well as broader changes in rural labor markets. The special section comprises three papers. The first examines the impact of membership in self-help groups in five states in rural India on women’s and men’s empowerment and gender equality. The second presents experimental evidence from a pilot project in Bangladesh that provided trainings in agricultural extension, nutrition behavior change communication, and gender sensitization to husbands and wives together. The third investigates changes in women’s roles within the jute value chain in the Southern Delta region of Bangladesh as household members migrate out of the study area and the availability of male labor declines. Although these papers focus on Bangladesh and India, pro-WEAI can be applied to impact assessments of agricultural development projects more generally. The three papers show both the usefulness of this new measure in detecting changes in empowerment indicators within the lifespan of a project and the value of having explicit empowerment objectives in agricultural development projects. The papers also demonstrate the value of having data on both men and women so that project designers can be more intentional about including both of them and monitoring outcomes for both to promote more gender equitable outcomes.

International audience; The term “middle class” is increasingly used to qualify the mass of people in developing countries who are neither poor nor rich and share consumption patterns historically associated with the western middle class. However, what differentiates them from the ideal-typical middle class, as well as the extent to which emerging middle classes differ across developing countries, has only been marginally documented by economists to date. This article proposes to scratch beneath the surface of the so-called middle-class that is burgeoning in developing countries by documenting the commonalities and differences hidden by the all-encompassing term of “middle class” for a set of developing countries exhibiting different levels of income, economic structures and socio-political systems: Brazil, Côte d’Ivoire, Turkey and Vietnam. Relying on quantitative and qualitative micro-economic data, our paper compares the objective characteristics (occupation, education, income), behavior and subjective expectations of the people standing in the middle of the income distribution in the four countries. Four main research questions structure the paper. Where is the middle? How is the middle specific? Who is in the middle? What does the middle aspire to? Results show that the middle-income group in each country covers distinct realities. Although some similar characteristics and behaviors are observable, our results reveal a strong heterogeneity within each national middle class, with no fewer than four to seven socio-economic subgroups, and strong country-specific traits as most of the subgroups are deeply rooted in the country’s specific historical trajectory. In each country, our analysis also unveils a pattern of bipolarization between a rather affluent and stable middle class and a “new” or more vulnerable one. Finally, middle class members appear to be characterized by an individualist positioning and the absence of a marked political commitment, challenging the common assumption that developing countries’ middle classes are agents of political change.

The ‘aid conditionality’ hypothesis as documented in the literature suggests that aid is effective in augmenting growth only in the presence of a sound policy environment. This hypothesis was so influential that its policy recommendation, to provide aid conditional upon recipient domestic policies, is currently the dominant ODA allocation criterion. However non-economic dimensions of development (political and institutional) are increasingly seen as fundamental. For this reason, this paper focuses on the linkage between aid and a non-economic factor like Human Rights (reflecting repression and corruption) as a measure of aid effectiveness, in explaining growth outcomes across 42 Least Developed economies. We find that countries with better protection of human rights experience positive growth from aid receipts, signifying the role of stronger institutions in enabling more effective use of aid. The paper thus concludes that the measurement and monitoring of human rights provision is a useful tool in gauging the likely effectiveness of foreign aid.

In this paper, we empirically examine the potential impact of commodity price fluctuations on the nutritional status of children in the 0–5 age category. This is important as adverse shocks that children experience at the time of birth will have an irreversible long-term impact that can adversely affect subsequent human capital formation. Unlike the bulk of the literature in the area that focuses on the impacts of drought-induced income shocks, we focus on changes in income caused by fluctuations in international coffee prices. We thus aim to estimate the potential impacts of international commodity price fluctuations on the nutritional status of children in commodity-export-dependent developing countries. To this end, we use the three waves of the Tanzanian National Panel Survey (NPS), together with data on international coffee prices. Our results show that an upward coffee price fluctuation is associated with an improvement in childhood nutritional status in rural Tanzania. This result is robust to the inclusion of household (sibling) fixed effects and data choices. The main result of our paper underlines the importance of international commodity price fluctuations for the wellbeing of communities in commodity-export-dependent countries. In the case of Tanzania, for example, the coffee sector creates direct income for about 400,000 smallholder farmers who produce 90 percent of Tanzania’s coffee, which is mainly produced for export. Thus, if not well-managed, international commodity price fluctuations put a strain on the poverty reduction endeavors of developing countries that depend on exports of one or a few non-oil commodities. The results of the paper also have implications for Goal number 2 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which aims to end all forms of malnutrition by 2030.

The paper studies the decline of the labor income share (LIS) in Mexico during the period 1990–2015. The decline is mostly explained by reductions within the economy’s major sectors (including manufacturing, tradables, and non-tradables) rather than by a recomposition of value added towards sectors with low labor shares. In contrast to agriculture—where LIS fell due to a shift of labor force from self-employment to wage-employment—in other major areas of the economy the fall in LIS is explained by reductions within the wage-employment sector. Econometric estimations indicate that parallel declines in the wage share and relative productivity of non-tradables and in the US manufacturing labor share all played a large role in the reduction of the manufacturing wage share in Mexico. More generally, the analysis suggests that the lagging productivity of the economy’s informal non-tradable sector—itself a reflection of the country’s low aggregate rate of economic growth—is a crucial factor in the fall of LIS in the formal sectors. The paper concludes by discussing possible explanations for the paradox of the slow rate of economic growth in Mexico despite the rise in the profit share.

Urban development in Africa is a very diverse and ambivalent phenomenon with aspects that do not fall neatly into global standards. Informal settlements therefore challenge governance by standards. We argue that quantifying and interrogating differences offers a better basis for governance. By drawing on a comparative analysis of three different informal settlements in Sub-Saharan Africa, this paper explores what differences reveal about the governance of informal settlements. The paper uses an urban societal metabolism approach, focussed on gender, energy and health, based on questionnaires and focus group discussions in Enkanini (Stellenbosch, South Africa), Mathare (Nairobi, Kenya), and Kasubi-Kawaala (Kampala, Uganda). The contribution of the paper is both empirical and theoretical. Empirically, we provide new evidence about the metabolism of urban informality at multiple levels of analysis: the individual, the household and the settlement. Findings show the gender asymmetries in urban poverty and the intricate links between energy choices, health and economic status. Theoretically, we argue that different levels of analysis produce different understandings of urban informality, and that analyzing informal settlements only by population aggregates means missing information. We conclude by arguing that understanding differences leads to the formulation of modest and localised goals, which are better able to take into account the complexity of urban informality.

The relationship between planning research and practice plays a key role in shaping global commitments related to urban development. Arguably, this is the case for a ‘global urban agenda’ being articulated at an international scale via frameworks like the Sustainable Development Goals and the New Urban Agenda. These multilateral commitments have been shaped by power relationships and assumptions about what kind of knowledge is valuable at different historical moments, a recognition of the local and global impacts of urban development and what sort of urban development is desirable at specific historical junctures. The pathways that have led to the present global attention to cities are as telling as the frameworks themselves. In this paper, we explore the history of multilateral and international networks that have shaped today’s global urban agenda. We focus on the three United Nations Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development (Habitat I, II and III) as milestones in the evolution of this agenda. Drawing on Southern urban theory and current debates on the interaction of practitioners and academics, we discuss the paradigms that have shaped the ways in which knowledge has been articulated, circulated and valued in those historical moments via the concept of ‘knowledge translation’. We discuss the way in which ‘urban equality’ has been approached and explored in the praxis of these agendas. To do so, the paper discusses community-based cases that can highlight the different knowledge paradigms, and the power dynamics behind them, opening up questions about the challenges of including diverse voices and knowledges in the ‘global’ conversation on urban agendas.

This paper investigates the spatial dimension of power relations and the shaping of local alliances through a hydropower development project in Nepal. It provides a grass-roots illustration on the role of space in shaping and reshaping power relations, and how it manifests in the formation of local strategic alliances. Taking the Upper Karnali hydropower project as a case study, the paper highlights: 1) the role of private sector actor as an ad-hoc decision maker in hydropower development in the country; 2) how hydropower development is perceived by those who will be most affected; and 3) how the two shape the localized dynamics in hydropower decision making, while also sheds light on some of the key gaps in hydropower decision-making landscape and processes. Viewing space as a process and a product of socio-political interface, it shows how local communities living along the Karnali River view the planned hydropower project differently, how these views are rooted in their relationship with the hydropower company, and how such relationship is predetermined by local communities’ bargaining power in relation to the proximity of their respective villages to the planned hydropower dam site, and vice versa. Unpacking the power relations shaping and reshaping spatial politics in hydropower decision making, it presents the concept of spatial alliances as a theoretical underpinning to unpack the question on why and how power relations emerge, are sustained and reproduced.

Recent growth in many African countries has been accompanied by rapid urbanization, which could have major impacts on rural livelihoods. This paper examines patterns of rural livelihoods and poverty in Ghana based on the proximity of rural areas to cities of different sizes. The paper finds that many rural households in the areas close to cities have shifted their primary employment from agriculture to nonagriculture, especially in the more urbanized South. This trend strengthens over time. This appears to take place in contrast to the traditional model of rural livelihood diversification, with some family members working in agriculture and some in nonagriculture. Although cities have created market demand for agriculture, proximity to cities does not seem to influence agricultural intensification in terms of modern input use, possibly due to agricultural markets being relatively integrated in Ghana. Proximity to cities has implications for rural households being less poor and becoming middle class even after controlling for being a nonfarm household in rural areas.

Summary This paper contributes theoretically and empirically to debates on the relationship between neoliberalism and the institutionalization of the commons through an analysis of recent efforts to implement community-managed lobster fisheries in Ireland. This initiative has been influenced by international examples of co-management systems in small-scale, inshore fisheries, and is presented as a “third way” for resource management, moving beyond the limited management choice of privatization or centralized state control. The paper is based on interviews and fieldwork with the fisheries managers, scientists, and inshore fishermen involved in the development of the co-management plan. In the paper, I use the analytic framework of governmentality to examine how these efforts to institutionalize the fisheries commons represent both continuity and discontinuity with the long tradition of liberal thought and biopolitical “improvement”. I argue that the continuity stems from the initial formulation of the problem of overfishing as one of unregulated exploitation of a resource; the novelty lies in the critique of existing institutional models, namely privatization and state regulation, that fail to adequately reflect and enable the capacities of local communities to self-manage the resources they exploit. Understanding neoliberal governmentality in terms of “improvement” helps us to understand and take more seriously the rationale behind efforts to devise better institutional responses to the problem of overfishing. The concept of “improvement” helps to broaden the analysis of neoliberalism beyond an often narrowly defined focus on market mechanisms and profit incentives; it shifts the focus of analysis away from the regulatory moments of “enclosure” to the ongoing, often frustrated efforts to align fishers’ economic interests with the “long-term” common good. The article argues for a more ambivalent reading of the commons that places greater focus on how localized, collective action can be valued and incorporated within evolving governmental and economic arrangements.

This paper maps the policy actors and their networks in the European Union’s Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan and the Voluntary Partnership Agreement (VPA) process in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). It analyzes power relations in the FLEGT VPA process, as well as actors’ preferences in relation to a number of policy issues dealt with in the FLEGT VPA. To provide contextual understanding, the paper explores pathways of policy influence along which international actors influence domestic decision-making processes within the FLEGT VPA. We find that in the Lao FLEGT VPA policy process, power is held by the traditionally most powerful policy actors, the central governmental agencies, donor community and international development partners, while the private sector, civil society organizations and actors from subnational levels are substantially less powerful. Strong policy preferences were noted for all aspects of timber legality, except for the legality of non-timber forest products (NTFPs). Similarly, strong preferences were observed for considerations of transparency and accountability, while preferences were comparatively weaker for issues concerning i) forest communities' rights to forest and land, ii) livelihood impacts on small-scale operators and family businesses as well as those of forest communities, and iii) the involvement of civil society organizations in the VPA process. The most dominant pathways through which VPA influences domestic policy-making is the direct access to domestic policy-making, followed by the international rules pathway of influence. Based on our analysis, we argue that imbalance in distribution of power and in representation of actors in the VPA policy network may obstruct the intended outcomes and progress on important policy issues, despite the stated policy goals and resources provided by the donor community. This in turn fosters perpetual dominance of the traditionally powerful policy actors, which is likely to lead to further marginalization and disempowerment of the less powerful actors, such as forest communities and informal operators.

This paper investigates if residing in a joint family affects non-farm employment for married women in rural India. Our estimates based on a longitudinal survey of over 27,000 women conducted in 2005 and 2012, and using the conditional logistic regression and instrumental variable approach suggest that living in a joint family lowers married women’s participation non-farm work by around 12% points. The adverse impact is higher for younger women, for those from families with higher social status, and for those residing in Northern India. We present evidence to suggest that women with higher education are not constrained from cultural and traditional norms since education raises women’s decision-making power in a joint family. An increased education level is likely to raise women’s earning capacity as well as the quality of jobs which may help in lowering family pressure against work. Public policies that encourage higher education, improve job accessibility along with affordable childcare, will raise non-farm employment, which has increasingly been the main source of new jobs, for women living in a rural India.

This paper critically examines the reconfiguration of post-supercyclone Ersama in coastal Odisha in India, to encourage the introduction of a new form of shrimp aquaculture as the principal livelihood. It demonstrates the operation of a powerful shared construction of Ersama, a typically paddy cultivating area, as a landscape rendered ‘empty’ and ‘unproductive’ by the supercyclone of 1999. The paper shows how this notion, shared by locals and external actors, facilitates the entry of the forces of commercial aquaculture at the cost of increased socio-economic inequalities and risk-taking for the poorest participants, as well as the exclusion of women from this new livelihood. Memories of previous disastrous attempts at shrimp culture are obliterated through misleading narratives about the potent productivity of a new type of shrimp by the proponents of aquaculture. The state has presided through uneven regulation, disregarding the damaging effects of commercial aquaculture for the coastal environment. The paper argues that besides the provision of disaster relief, the state restricts its own responsibilities towards disaster prone and affected populations to the creation of warning systems and physical infrastructures. However, it assigns the broader challenge of disaster recovery to ongoing processes of capitalist development. Even as the resulting precarity, both economic and environmental, threaten long-term and inclusive recovery, the state delinks disaster recovery from questions of structural risk resulting from exclusionary development pathways, depoliticising it considerably.

The paper shows that international government borrowing from multilateral development banks is countercyclical while international government borrowing from private sector lenders is procyclical. The countercyclicality of multilateral development bank (MDB) lending is mostly driven by the behavior of the World Bank (borrowing from regional development banks tends to be acyclical). The paper also shows that MDB lending to Latin America and East Asia is more countercyclical than MDB lending to other regions. Private sector lending is instead procyclical in all developing regions. While the cyclicality of MDB lending does not depend on domestic or international conditions, private lending becomes particularly procyclical in periods of limited global capital flows. By focusing on both borrower and lender heterogeneity, the paper shows that the cyclical properties of international government debt are mostly driven by credit supply shocks. Demand factors appear to be less important drivers of procyclical international government borrowing. The focus on supply and demand factors is different from the traditional push and pull classification, as push and pull factors could affect both the demand and the supply of international government debt.

Approaches to resilience to climate change can be socially exclusionary if they do not acknowledge diverse experiences of risks or socio-economic barriers to resilience. This paper contributes to analyses of resilience by studying how theories of change (ToC) processes used by development organizations might lead to social exclusions, and seeking ways to make these more inclusive. Adopting insights from participatory monitoring and evaluation, the paper first presents fieldwork from four villages in Myanmar to compare local experiences of risk and resilience with the ToCs underlying pathways to resilience based on building anticipatory, absorptive, and adaptive capacities. The paper then uses interviews with the development organizations using these pathways to identify how ToC processes might exclude local experiences and causes of risk, and to seek ways to make processes more inclusive. The research finds that development organizations can contribute to shared ToCs for resilience, but adopt tacitly different models of risk that reduce attention to more transformative socio-economic pathways to resilience. Consequently, there is a need to consider how resilience and ToCs can become insufficiently scrutinized boundary objects when they are shared by actors with different models of risk and intervention.

Highlights: • GVCs in medical industries were subject to intense public controversy and state intervention during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. • We move beyond simplistic ‘success or failure’ of GVCs by differentiating GVC ‘adaptation’ and ‘effectiveness’ during two phases of the crisis: first, a localized crisis in China, and later, a global systemic crisis. • It shows how different types of state policies, beyond just GVC facilitation, interact with GVCs to produce mixed outcomes of PPE provision. • It advances the literature on the state-GVC nexus by showing deeper ‘mutual constraints’ between states and GVCs, which goes beyond states as external shapers of GVCs. • While states influence GVCs, two structural features of GVCs – geography of production and technological complexity – set limits on state policy, even among ‘strong’ states and during a crisis., Shortages of critical medical supplies during the COVID-19 pandemic have turned global value chains (GVCs) in personal protective equipment (PPE) into a political lightning rod. Some blame excessive outsourcing and foreign dependency for causing shortages, thus urging greater state intervention; others applaud GVCs for their flexibility and scaling up of production, while blaming states for undermining GVC operations. Using policy process-tracing and monthly trade data of seven PPE products across the US, Europe, China and Malaysia, this paper goes beyond the binary debate of either the ‘failure’ or ‘success’ of GVCs to show when and under what conditions states interacted with GVCs to produce mixed outcomes in provisioning countries with PPEs. We identify interactions between the type of state intervention and two key structural features of GVCs – geographic distribution of production and technological attributes of the product. Conceptually, the paper demonstrates the mutual constraints of states and GVCs, and highlights structural factors involved in the relationship. Looking to the future of GVCs, we caution against wholesale declarations that GVCs should be abandoned or maintained, instead concluding that paying attention to GVC structure, states and their interactions are crucial.

Violence against children and adolescents, a highly prevalent problem, is a clear violation of child rights and has detrimental effects on later life outcomes. Programs that alleviate poverty address a structural determinant of child vulnerability and can thereby reduce child abuse. This paper investigates whether the Government of Zimbabwe’s Harmonized Social Cash Transfer (HSCT) Program, which combines cash transfers with complementary services, affects youth exposure to physical violence. The analysis uses data from a non-experimental impact evaluation and a difference-in-differences approach. Results show a 19-percentage point decline in the incidence of physical violence among youth four years into the program. HSCT-induced enhancements in beneficiary households’ purchasing capacity and food security, improvements in caregiver subjective well-being, and reductions in youth participation in economic work for pay could be mediating the program’s effects on youth abuse. This paper adds to the relatively scarce evidence on the impacts of anti-poverty policies on young people’s susceptibility to physical violence in developing countries.

Little research exists on how alternative understandings of sustainability and societal well-being, such as those developed by marginalized Indigenous populations, can enrich and possibly challenge dominant visions of sustainability anchored in Western discourses on sustainable development and ecological modernization. This paper addresses this research gap in the context of the transition towards low-carbon energy sources by addressing the following question: how do Indigenous worldviews contrast with modernist visions of sustainability in the context of the energy transition? To do so, it first builds a conceptual framework contrasting modernist and Indigenous sustainability worldviews. Second, it applies this framework to the case of wind energy developments within the territory of three Zapotec communities located in southern Mexico, with the discussion relying on 103 interviews with key stakeholders, six focus groups and participant observation. Results show that the Zapotec sustainability worldview contrasts strikingly with wind developers’ modernist propositions, which tend to reproduce the region’s past colonial arrangements in terms of cultural domination, non-recognition of Indigenous identities and disrespect for local customs. This contrast has led to many conflicts and misunderstandings around wind energy projects. The paper concludes that different conceptualizations of sustainability must be recognized to ensure an inclusive and just energy transition, and advances the concept of “pluriversal technologies” to emphasize the need for technologies that embrace ontological and epistemological diversity by being co-designed, co-produced and co-owned by the inhabitants of the socio-cultural territory in which they are embedded.

Highlights • 1. The Covid19 pandemic urges us to advancing a new and different framing on government intervention to properly serve the public interest. • 2. Production dynamics in every country are highly affected by the pandemic, with drastic changes that might become structural in our economies. • 3. A turning point on the connection between industrial policy, sustainability and development has been reached to tackle wide societal challenges. • 4. A new analytical framework with real-world implications is needed to support industrial policy governance and implementation. • 5. Industrial policy in the post-Covid19 era should steer the structural change of our economies and societies towards sustainable human development., National and local societies all around the world are fighting the most dramatic global public health emergency of our time, which has soon become an economic, social and human crisis touching all key dimensions of our lives. Within an inevitable revamping attention on the need for government intervention to face the challenges raised by the Covid19 pandemic, industrial policy is appearing as a central piece of the puzzle. As production dynamics in every country is highly affected by the crisis, industrial policy is considered part of the response to solve dramatic economic and social problems deriving by extraordinary levels of unemployment, deprivation and poverty. In this paper, we argue that a turning point on the connection between industrial policy, sustainability and development has been reached, highlighting the need to rethink its theoretical foundations as well as its governance and implementation processes for a new role in our post-Covid 19 societies. Therefore, the research question underlying this paper deals primarily with the nexus between the debate on industrial policy and its effects in terms of human development, social cohesion and sustainability. For this reason, we attempt at closing the gap between different strands of literature, whose integrated connection leads to a new analytical framework with real-world implications on the role of industrial policy, not only as tool for productive dynamics, but also as a leverage for sustainable human development. All in all, we aim at contributing to the debate on our post-Covid19 economies and societies in two ways: firstly, by providing a new integrated analytical framework on industrial policy to steer a sustainable structural change of our economies and societies towards sustainable human development; secondly, by identifying preliminary implications on industrial policy governance and implementation, investing in the accurate and transparent design of industrial policy in the post-Covid19 era.

Despite recent advances, many low and middle-income countries do not have a comprehensive system for civil registration. Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goal of providing ‘legal identity for all’ therefore requires an effort to ensure timely birth registration among societal groups that have remained at the margins. Timely registration is crucial for the effective guarantee of individual identities, since delays are associated with under-registration, and incorrect records. The paper examines gender inequality in registration. Based on demographic data for Mexico, a higher middle-income country that has recently made considerable progress with regard to birth registration, it shows that gender bias is expressed not only in the under-registration of girls, but also in systematically longer delays compared to their male counterparts. To understand this, the paper conceptualizes registration as an informed decision by citizens about the perceived costs and benefits of obtaining documents. The paper leverages a novel data source – a dataset of roughly 80 million records for births registered by the Mexican state between 1985 and 2014 – to investigate not just whether citizens obtain documents, but also when they do so. The analysis demonstrates that delays in registration decrease when obtaining documents provides tangible benefits for citizens. The introduction of Progresa, a conditional cash transfer program targeting poor households, is associated with shorter delays in registration among younger cohorts, and an increase in registration among women. Positive incentives for registration thus ensure that parents actively seek documents for their children. Conditional cash transfer programs, which operate in many countries, can play an important role in creating such incentives.

A contemporary challenge is inequality. This paper illustrates why ideas matter, and how they can change over time. Inequalities are reinforced when they are taken for granted. But this can be disrupted when marginalised people gain self-esteem; challenge hitherto unquestioned inequalities; and gain confidence in the possibility of social change. Slowly and incrementally, social mobilisation can catalyse greater government commitment to socially inclusive economic growth. This is illustrated with ethnographic research from Latin America, where income inequality has recently declined. Clearly, however, no single paper can provide a comprehensive account of political change in an incredibly diverse region. By highlighting some ways in which ideas matter (and the limitations of alternative hypotheses about increased fiscal space and democratisation), this paper merely seeks to persuade political economists to go beyond ‘incentives’. Future efforts to tackle inequality might harness the power of ideas: tackling ‘norm perceptions’ (beliefs about what others think and do); publicising positive deviance; and strengthening social movements.

Maternity protection (MP) in the workplace is a vital element of ensuring women’s and children’s wellbeing. It aims to minimize the difficulties that working women face because of giving birth and to protect the health of mothers and their babies. Most research on MP around the world is carried out in larger organizations in developed countries. This cannot be applied uncritically to developing countries, where work in small firms and the informal economy tends to dominate and enterprises are more influenced by their local communities and environment. This paper explores different forms of MP found in various forms and sizes of enterprise in Ghana. Specifically, it examines 1) how workplaces in the formal and informal economy manage MP and 2) how reciprocity shapes workers’ access to the different forms of MP support. The paper draws on 63 qualitative interviews with employers and women employees across three geographic regions of Ghana. The findings show that there are a range of measures related to pregnancy, maternity leave, family-friendly flexible working conditions, breastfeeding and childcare. While large formal economy organizations mostly offer MP measures corresponding to regulatory entitlements, women working in small informal economy businesses often only benefit from informal MP support. However, neither statutory nor informal supports alone provide adequately for women’s needs. The paper highlights the important roles of reciprocity and relationships built on trust as conditions for family-friendly MP provisions, particularly in the informal economy workplaces. It concludes by identifying lessons that can be learnt by both formal and informal economy businesses.

Most existing empirical papers concerned about multidimensional poverty use the household as the unit of analysis, so that the multidimensional poverty status of the household is equated with the multidimensional poverty status of all its members. This assumption ignores intra-household inequalities. Additionally, households containing both a female and a male cannot contribute to a gender gap in poverty, so gender differentials in poverty cannot be estimated. But, the Sustainable Development Goals have put special emphasis on gender equality; therefore, new measures able to capture the gender differences are needed. Consequently, in this paper, we propose an individual-based multidimensional poverty measure in order to estimate the three I’s of multidimensional poverty (incidence, intensity, and inequality) in Nicaragua as well as the gender differentials. We also estimate logit regressions to better understanding the determinants of multidimensional poverty in this country. Overall, we find that there are statistically significant gender differences in multidimensional poverty in Nicaragua; but, they are estimated to be small and lower than 5%. However, the gender differential in inequality is larger than 10%, and it suggests that multi-dimensionally poor women are living in very intense poverty when compared with multi-dimensionally poor men. We also find that the elderly and children are the most vulnerable people in terms of multidimensional poverty in this country; furthermore, when information on employment, domestic work, and social protection is considered in the analysis, the gender gaps become more substantial, and women are more likely to be poor than men.

This paper provides evidence on the effects of agricultural productivity on wage rates, labor supply to market oriented activities, and labor allocation between own farming and wage labor in agriculture. To guide the empirical work, this paper develops a general equilibrium model that underscores the role of reallocation of family labor engaged in the production of non-marketed services at home (`home production'). The model predicts positive effects of a favorable agricultural productivity shock on wages and income, but the effect on hired labor is ambiguous; it depends on the strength of reallocation of labor from home to market production by labor surplus and deficit households. Taking rainfall variations as a measure of shock to agricultural productivity, and using subdistrict level panel data from Bangladesh, this paper finds significant positive effects of a favorable rainfall shock on agricultural wages, labor supply to market work, and per capita household expenditure. The share of hired labor in contrast declines substantially in response to a favorable productivity shock, which is consistent with a case where labor-deficit households respond more than the labor-surplus ones in reallocating labor from home production.

Public Works (PW) programs are popular development interventions due to their potential ‘double dividend’ of transferring income to the poor while at the same time creating public infrastructure. However, PW programs are costly and demanding from an administrative perspective and it is not clear whether they are the most cost-effective intervention to reduce poverty. Therefore, an assessment of PW programs needs to understand which benefits and costs these programs entail relative to other interventions, and whether or not the extra cost can be outweighed by generating benefits over and above those of alternative interventions, such as Cash Transfer programs. This paper seeks to identify these benefits, and develops a conceptual framework that highlights four mechanisms through which PW programs could strengthen the productive capacity of poor households beyond the effects of Cash Transfers: productive investments, labor market effects, skills development, and increases in trade and production. It then reviews available empirical evidence from PW programs in developing countries. The results suggest that PW programs can induce productive investments via income and insurance effects when the program is sufficiently reliable and long-term. PW programs can also have positive welfare effects by raising wages, but potential adverse effects on labor markets have to be taken into account. Implicit or explicit training components of PW programs do not seem to increase the employability or business earnings of participants. Finally, there is only scant empirical evidence on the productive effects of the public infrastructure generated by PW programs, and further research is crucial to understand and quantify those effects. This paper concludes that PW programs are only preferable over alternative interventions if they generate substantial investments among the target group, if there is clear evidence that private-sector wages are below equilibrium wages, or if the public infrastructure generated in PW programs has substantial growth effects.

This paper explores the social construction of failure in development policy and academic narratives. Talk of failure is commonplace in development, and this paper seeks to use that as a heuristic to understand what that it signifies beyond face value. Drawing on a wide range of primary and secondary texts to provide illustrative evidence, the paper explores how failure is constructed, and advances a three-fold typology of failures that vary in terms of their positionality, the critical variables they identify as responsible, their epistemological stance, and the importance they accord to politics.

This paper looks at patterns of growth faltering and catch up of around 1000 children as they moved from 8 to 19 years of age, from middle childhood through adolescence to young adulthood, using Height for Age Difference (HAD) and the more conventional Height for age z-scores (HAZ). It also looks at what individual and household characteristics may have moved these children into or out of situations of nutritional deprivation and how their stunting profile in later childhood correlates with psychosocial outcomes at age 19 and how it may have intergenerational consequences. The paper uses 4 rounds of longitudinal data collected in 2002, 2006, 2009 and 2013 from Andhra Pradesh and Telengana, India when the children were aged 8, 12, 15 and 19. The paper finds that there are significant gender based biases in growth faltering later in childhood disfavouring girls and that becoming newly stunted as an adolescent is strongly correlated with a child reporting to have poorer relationships with peers compared to the group that were never stunted. We also find that a girl experiencing stunting in middle childhood or adolescence (even if they were not stunted at age 8 or eventually moved out of being stunted by age 19) correlates significantly with offspring being shorter and thinner than the offspring of girls never stunted. This is one of few, if any, studies that look at growth patterns in middle childhood and adolescence and outcomes as a young adult and the results are important for their implications for further research and policy.

Summary This paper examines the relationship among gender, social capital, and access to finance of micro, small, and medium enterprises in the manufacturing sector in Viet Nam. Our dataset is from the 2011, 2013, and 2015 results of the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise Survey in Viet Nam. Using the Heckman technique to control for sample selection bias, the estimates do not provide evidence for discrimination against female-owned enterprises in the formal lending market. Specifically, female entrepreneurs have a higher probability of getting a loan and they pay lower interest rates in comparison with male entrepreneurs. No discrimination in formal credit markets may arise from the preference for informal loans over formal loans as entrepreneurs tend to borrow informal loans before applying for formal ones. Further analysis shows that social capital could facilitate loan applications: firms that have a closer relationship with government officials and other business people can get loans of longer duration.

Summary An extensive literature exists on the adverse effects of corruption on inward FDI and the impact this may have on economic development but the reverse causality has not been fully explored. Legislation in the US and the EU prohibits firms from engaging in corrupt practices in foreign countries and this suggests that foreign-owned firms might be less likely to pay bribes. However, such legislation may be ineffective because foreign firms have to adapt to local market conditions or risk being uncompetitive. Using firm-level data for 41 emerging countries, a probit model estimates the probability that a firm pays bribes. To allow for possible endogeneity this probit analysis is repeated with an instrument to proxy for endogenous foreign ownership. Then, a propensity score matching technique tests for differences in the propensity to pay bribes by domestic and foreign firms. The paper finds no difference in the behavior of foreign-owned and domestic firms with respect to corrupt practices. Results are robust to different levels of foreign ownership and support the view that foreign-owned firms adapt to local practices and are neither more nor less likely to pay bribes than comparable domestic firms. The paper finds that other variables including bureaucracy, government contracts, and perceived difficulties with civil society (legal and political) do have statistically significant effects on increasing bribery and that some others, such as per capita GDP, tend to reduce bribery. The study concludes that there is no evidence that foreign ownership, after investment has occurred, tends to reduce bribery but it does support the view that foreign-owned firms adopt local behavioral norms.

Summary The informal economy currently provides two out of three jobs worldwide, with waste-picking activities providing employment for millions of the poorest of society. Moreover, waste-picking could provide a sustainable solution for solving the waste management crisis that affects the 3 billion people lacking access to waste services. Governmental policies toward waste-pickers in particular, and the informal economy in general, have been fundamentally based on four policy approaches: (1) dualist and voluntarist, which proposes repressive policies against waste-picker activity and the expansion of formal solid waste management systems; (2) structuralist, which argues for weak supporting policies aimed at reinforcing waste-picker associations; (3) legalist, which promotes the competition of waste-picking with other recycling alternatives without government intervention; and (4) co-production, which supports waste-picking with local policies as a means of enhancing waste-pickers’ productivity. Both qualitative, and particularly quantitative evidence testing the impact of these four approaches is scarce. In this paper, we attempt to fill this gap in the literature by operationalizing concepts, building a waste-picker sustainable performance index, and estimating the impacts of these four competing policy approaches. An exploratory sequential design method is used to analyze data: first, a thematic analysis to examine 40 in-depth interviews, and then multiple linear regressions to analyze a census survey of 100 waste-pickers in four cooperatives in Santiago de Chile. Our empirical results suggest a positive association between the level of government support and waste-pickers’ sustainable performance. Consequently, further positive government intervention, particularly in supporting a stronger structural organization for the waste-picker recycling system, is advocated as the primary policy recommendation of this paper.

As in most immigrant-receiving countries in the global North, countries in the South face challenges regarding migrant access to social rights and the effect of migrants on the sustainability of the welfare state. In the Latin American context, this holds especially for countries such as Costa Rica, which has one of the strongest social policy regimes in the South and the highest (Nicaraguan) immigrant stock in Latin America. Set in the context of Costa Rica, this paper assesses two views which seem hard to reconcile, and, are common in the country. First, it is claimed that Nicaraguan migrants use public health services disproportionately, thereby threatening the country’s welfare system. Second, pro-migrant rights non-governmental organizations and academics are concerned, primarily based on qualitative studies, that access to health services for Nicaraguan immigrants is limited, and that they are discriminated based on nationality. This paper relies on administrative data and a unique data set representative of Nicaraguan born individuals residing in Costa Rica to examine the validity of both these claims. We do not find support for either. The incidence of migrant health care use is lower than their share in the population and at the same time there is no evidence of discrimination in health care access for migrants based on their nationality. The paper underlines the need for more informed migration debates. 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Sociales::Instituto de Investigaciones Sociales (IIS)

For international and domestic actors, post-conflict peacebuilding is one of the most difficult policy arenas to understand and in which to operate. Environmental and natural resource governance have the potential to facilitate peacebuilding in such contexts, but existing research has not yet produced a cohesive theoretical understanding of the pathways by which natural resource management strategies can facilitate positive peace. This paper explores the wider benefits of natural resource management and discusses their potential for reducing political fragility in affected states and helping to build positive peace. The paper outlines three mechanisms through which improved natural resource governance in post-conflict contexts is theorized to have positive effects on peace: (a) the contact hypothesis, whereby the facilitation of intergroup cooperation reduces bias and prejudice; (b) the diffusion of transnational norms, where the introduction of environmental and other good governance norms supports human empowerment and strengthens civil society; and (c) state service provision, where the provision of access to public services addresses the instrumental needs of communities, thereby strengthening their belief in the state. Guided by an interest in the opportunities presented by natural resource management to support peacebuilding processes in post-conflict states, the paper seeks to revise and advance the current environmental peacebuilding research agenda.

Numerous attempts have been made to estimate the share of the world’s food produced by family farms and by farms of different sizes. This paper updates estimates of the number of farms worldwide, their distribution and that of farmland, using the most recent agricultural censuses available, in combination with survey data where needed. It finds there are more than 608 million farms in the world, more than 90% of which are family farms (by our definition), and they occupy around 70–80% of farmland and produce roughly 80% of the world’s food in value terms. The paper also underscores the importance of not referring to family farms and small farms (i.e., those of less than two hectares) interchangeably: small farms account for 84% of all farms worldwide, as per the available census information, but operate only around 12% of all agricultural land, and produce roughly 35% of the world’s food (well below the 80% produced by family farms). A comprehensive examination of changes in farmland distribution over time is also provided to showcase the increased concentration of farmland among large farms as economies grow. The largest 1% of farms in the world (those larger than 50 ha) operate more than 70% of the world's farmland. These estimates are not free from bias given existing data gaps. The paper underscores the need to ensure that agricultural censuses cover non-household farms in order to enhance our understanding of agriculture and food production worldwide.

It is of global interest to understand under what conditions community forestry can be successful and sustainable in terms of environmental conservation and local livelihood benefits. Existing theories have explained several influential factors, including small groups of people with shared norms, sound institutions, high levels of decentralization, downward accountability, and security of tenure. This paper explores how local conceptions of environmental justice become closely linked to sustainable community forestry. Based on an in-depth case study in a highly populated and culturally heterogeneous village in southwest China, we examine an enduring example of community forestry, using a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. The results show that village forest cover has increased significantly over the last 30 years, contributing to improvements in local livelihoods. It is argued that one of the important factors in this success has been villagers’ ability to align forest management with local justice norms and practices. Distributive, procedural, and recognition aspects of justice are considered, and we find that, in combination, these become integral to building effective institutions for collective action. To broaden the focus on successful factors in existing theories, this paper argues that the consideration of justice as an important condition for establishing effective and durable local institutions that will be effective for community forestry. The insights from this study suggest a need to consider justice dimensions in community forestry research to enable improved understanding of its dynamics and outcomes worldwide.

This paper looks at household consumption and financial decisions made in a matrilineal society where women are traditionally the household financial managers. This culture was strongly altered by the British in the mid-19th century through Christian missionaries who proclaimed that the role of the household manager is ascribed to men and not to women. Using self-collected data from 650 individuals in the matrilineal state of Meghalaya, India, and exploring households’ distance to the historical Protestant base in Cherrapunji, we find evidence that households in which women are empowered spend more on welfare-enhancing goods, such as food, but are less likely to have savings left at the end of the month. Our paper contributes to the literature by investigating how a historical shift in female empowerment, mostly driven by cultural norms, can have long-term effects on financial decisions.

Highlights • This paper explores the role of climate risk, preparedness and culture in explaining the cross-country variation in the Covid-19 mortality rates. • The greater the climate risk and the lower the readiness to climate change, the higher the risk of mortality from Covid-19. • Countries that were better prepared for the climate emergency were also better placed to fight the pandemic. • Individualistic societies fared significantly worse than collectivist ones in coping with Covid-19, resulting in much higher mortality rates. • To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper formally establishing the link between climate risk, culture and the Covid-19 mortality rate., Why have some countries done significantly better than others in fighting the Covid-19 pandemic? Had some countries been better prepared than others? This paper attempts to shed light on these questions by examining the role of climate risk and culture in explaining the cross-country variation in the Covid-19 mortality, while controlling for other potential drivers. In our analysis, we consider climate risk, readiness to climate change and individualism as main indicators reflecting the climate and culture status of individual countries. Using data from 110 countries, we find that the greater the climate risk; the lower the readiness to climate change and the more individualistic the society, the higher the pandemic mortality rate. We also present a series of sensitivity checks and show that our findings are robust to different specifications, alternative definitions of the mortality rate; and different estimation methods. One policy implication arising from our results is that countries that were better prepared for the climate emergency were also better placed to fight the pandemic. Overall, countries in which individuals look after each other and the environment, creating sustainable societies, are better able to cope with climate and public health emergencies.

Summary This paper explores the challenges for analysis of urbanization which can arise from insufficiently rigorous definition of what is “urban”. Policy makers and investors still use the ideas of “rural” versus “urban” and increasingly assume that the pace of urbanization in African countries is a measure of positive economic structural change. However most urban definitions do not incorporate economic characteristics. In Africa widely differing urban population thresholds and administrative factors are the most common criteria. The thresholds are often so low that many rural settlements are also defined as “urban” or they may be included on population density criteria, meaning the apparent pace of urbanization is inflated unrealistically. These issues are exemplified in this paper through detailed examples drawn from Kenya. It uses a range of sources including official census data and urban data published by Africapolis, as well as aerial images of rural and urban settlements in Kenya. It demonstrates how the use of population density criteria has inflated Kenyan urban data by the incorporation of very large numbers of rural people and explains how this can lead to entirely misleading interpretations of local and national urban and migration trends. Errors in urban figures can therefore have serious policy implications. It is argued that such errors can be reduced by not relying on a single criterion to define “urban” or by triangulating data on rural and urban settlements with other relevant information.

Summary This paper investigates whether small-scale water supply systems implemented and operated by water user associations increase access to piped water supply in rural Brazil by more than systems by local governments. Starting from 15% to 16% in the year 2000, access rates in rural areas with water user associations increased to 33.4% in 2010. In areas with local government supply systems, access rates only increased to 24.9%. Based on data from Brazilian census and the national water and sanitation survey, the empirical analysis in this paper shows that the observed difference is effectively due to project-type choice. Additionally it points toward higher accountability as a potential reason for better results of community-based projects. In municipalities where social groups requested a new system before the local government started implementation and therefore public awareness for the project was higher, the increase in access rates is comparable to the increase in municipalities with water user association projects. The same is true if local media is present or political competition in local elections is higher. As the effect of project type on access rates might be confounded by simultaneous drivers of project-type choice and access rates, the quantitative analysis is based on a difference-in-difference estimator in combination with kernel matching to overcome the endogeneity of project type. The treatment effect revealed by this analysis is robust to various specification changes and the robustness checks show no structural differences between treatment and control groups that could bias the results. The calculation of matching weights for the kernel matching is informed by semi-structured interviews with academics and sector experts in Brazil explaining the determinants of project choice. The interviews highlight the political economy behind infrastructure expansion in rural Brazil.

This paper sets out a systemic account of intertemporal changes in multidimensional poverty using the Alkire-Foster Adjusted Headcount Ratio and its consistent sub-indices. It uses three techniques to assess the pro-poorness of multidimensional poverty reduction. The analysis of changes in multidimensional poverty draw on on the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) and related destitution measure in 34 countries and 338 sub-national regions, covering 2.5 billion people, for which there is a recent MPI estimation and comparable Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) dataset across time. First, it assesses overall changes in poverty and its incidence and intensity, and compares this with changes in $1.90 poverty. Next, utilizing the property of subgroup decomposability, it examines changes in the MPI and its consistent sub-indices over time across urban-rural regions, sub-national regions and ethnic groups. The decomposition analysis identified relevant national patterns, including those in which the pace of poverty reduction is higher for the poorest subgroups. Finally, the paper analyses the dynamics of a strict subset of the poor, who are identified as 'destitute' using a more extreme deprivation cutoff vector, and studies relative rates of reduction of destitution and poverty by country and region. This extensive empirical analysis illustrates how to assess the extent and patterns of reduction of multidimensional poverty, as well as whether it is inclusive or whether some people or groups are left behind. Naturally, some further research questions emerge.

Summary The political empowerment of women is a societal process crucial to development and progress. The V-Dem women’s political empowerment index (WPEI) provides information about women’s civil liberties, civil society participation, and political participation globally. Spanning from 1900 to 2012, three dimensions of empowerment, and over 170 countries, it is among the most comprehensive measures of women’s empowerment available. This paper presents a conceptualization of women’s political empowerment and provides an overview of the construction of the index and operationalization of its three sub-dimensions: Women’s civil liberties, civil society participation, and political participation. Compared to other indices measuring women’s empowerment, such as the GDI, the GEM, the GII, and the CIRI data on human rights, the V-Dem index allows more precise measurement and is superior in temporal scope and coverage of countries of the Global South. The paper demonstrates the benefits of this new index and its sub-dimensions through several empirical illustrations.

Summary This paper estimates slum residents’ willingness to pay for formalized land tenure in Pune, India. The results show that the legal assurance of slum residents’ occupancy of their lands could benefit them. Previous studies have discussed the legal and non-legal factors that substantially influence the tenure security of residents in informal settlements; however, it remains unclear how and to what extent the assignment of legal property rights through the formalization of land tenure improves the tenure security of residents in informal settlements and living conditions, even in the presence of other legal and non-legal factors that also contribute to their tenure security. To address this question, this study focuses on the city of Pune, India, where government agencies have formalized slums by legally ensuring the occupancy of the residents under the “slum declaration.” Applying a hedonic price model to an original household survey, this paper investigates how slum residents evaluate formalized land tenure. A spatial econometrics method is also applied to account for spatial dependence and spatially autocorrelated unobserved errors. The spatial hedonic analysis shows that the premium of slum declaration is worth 19.2% of the average housing rent in slums. The associated marginal willingness to pay is equivalent to 6.7% of the average household expenditure, although it is heterogeneous depending on a household’s caste and other legal conditions. This finding suggests that the assurance of occupancy rights is a vital component of land-tenure formalization policy even if it does not directly provide full property rights.

Summary This paper examines the role that multinational enterprises (MNEs) and foreign direct investments (FDI) can have in enhancing the access to electricity for local communities in developing countries based on the quality of home and host institutions. Access to electricity is a marker for development but it is far from being universal in developing countries. The shortage of electricity is mainly the consequence of inability of governments in planning, financing, and developing necessary electricity infrastructure. In this context, investments from other actors can be essential. Particularly, we focus on the role of FDI and MNEs. We claim that when MNEs invest in developing countries, they are incentivized to solve the lack of electricity infrastructure mainly for two reasons: to guarantee their business activities and to gain legitimacy with their local stakeholders. In addition, we argue that MNEs and FDI from institutionally underdeveloped countries will be more prone to develop infrastructure for the provision of electricity to local population, as generally they suffer from a negative stereotype. For this study, we rely on 1,547 observations composed of pairs of 83 home countries and 15 host countries in sub-Saharan Africa, observed from 2005 to 2011. Due to the nature of the database, we adopt panel data techniques, i.e., system-GMM and corrected Least Square Dummy Variable estimators. We find that FDI promotes access to electricity in developing countries with weak institutions and this is more likely true when FDI come from institutionally underdeveloped countries. These results are far from obvious, as they controvert common idea among institutional scholars that a regulatory authority is essential in the provision of infrastructure. In conclusion, with this paper we partially rehabilitate the image of MNEs investing in developing countries, by demonstrating that—under certain conditions—they could contribute to energy poverty alleviation of local population.

Highlights • We examine the impact of improved cowpea adoption on poverty in Nigeria. • We use a unique and recent nationally representative survey data. • Adoption leads to an increase in household income and asset ownership. • Poverty reduces with the adoption of improved cowpea varieties., Adoption of improved agricultural technologies has long been recognized as critical for reducing poverty through increased productivity, incomes, and asset accumulation. Using a nationally representative survey data from a sample of over 1500 households in Nigeria, this paper evaluates the impacts of adoption of improved cowpea varieties on income and asset poverty reduction using an endogenous switching regression model. The results showed that adoption of improved cowpea varieties increased per capita household income and asset ownership by 17 and 24 percentage points, respectively. The results based on the observed and counterfactual income and asset distributions further showed that adoption reduced both income poverty and asset poverty by 5 percentage points. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy options for increasing adoption and impacts of improved cowpea varieties in Nigeria.

Inclusive innovation as a strategy for inclusive development has received increased attention from development policymakers, practitioners, and scholars in recent years. What these processes entail in practical terms, however, remains contested and under-theorized. This paper addresses the scarcity of mid-level analysis and models of inclusive innovation processes within complex systems, which are needed to enable a coherent empirical research agenda and to inform program theory-building, implementation, and evaluation. Looking to smallholder-oriented agricultural systems in the Global South, where the majority of inclusive innovation implementation and research has been located, this paper proposes that it is possible to identify the essential features and causal logic of these processes to create an empirically-derived, middle-range model with cross-context applicability. Drawing on methods from realist evaluation and social inquiry, I conducted a theory-driven, cross-case synthesis of three studies of inclusive innovation processes in agricultural systems, with one case each from South America, Southeast Asia, and Africa. I find that despite significant diversity in project designs, facilitation approaches, and local contexts, the three inclusive innovation processes unfolded in strikingly similar ways, and that this modus operandi can be modeled as a middle-range theory of change. In each case, I find that a consistent set of activities and processes changed the local context for the inclusive innovation initiative. These altered contextual factors interacted with ongoing programmatic activities in consistent ways to trigger processes of social learning, social capital strengthening, collective cognition, and consensus formation, which acted as causal mechanisms responsible for producing the intermediate outcomes that led to technical, organizational, and institutional system innovation. The middle-range model enables cross-context insights into how inclusive innovation processes work and what capacities are needed to facilitate them. It can also guide the adaptive management and assessment of these processes, while offering testable hypotheses to guide future empirical work and evaluation.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused millions of infections and deaths worldwide, forced schools to suspend classes, workers to work from home, many to lose their livelihoods, and countless businesses to close. Throughout this crisis, families have had to protect, comfort and care for their children, their elderly and other members. While the pandemic has greatly intensified family care responsibilities for families, unpaid care work has been a primary activity of families even in normal times. This paper estimates the future global need for caregiving, and the burden of that need that typically falls on families, especially women. It takes into account projected demographic shifts, health transitions, and economic changes in order to obtain an aggregate picture of the care need relative to the potential supply of caregiving in low-, middle- and high-income countries. This extensive margin of the future care burden, however, does not capture the weight of that burden unless the quantity and quality of care time per caregiver are taken into account. Adjusting for care time given per caregiver, the paper incorporates data from time-use surveys, illustrating this intensive margin of the care burden in three countries that have very different family and economic contexts-Ghana, Mongolia, and South Korea. Time-use surveys typically do not provide time data for paid care services, so the estimates depend only on the time intensity of family care. With this caveat, the paper estimates that the care need in 2030 would require the equivalent of one-fifth to two-fifths of the paid labor force, assuming 40 weekly workhours. Using the projected 2030 mean wage for care and social service workers to estimate the hypothetical wage bill for these unpaid caregivers if they were paid, we obtain a value equivalent to 16 to 32 percent of GDP in the three countries.