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This paper analyzes how economic and non-economic characteristics at the individual, household, and community level affect the risk of victimization in Mozambique. We use a countrywide representative household survey from Mozambique with unique individual level information and show that the probability of being victimized is increasing in income, but at a diminishing rate. The effect of income is dependent on the type of crime, and poorer households are vulnerable. While less at risk of victimization, they suffer relatively greater losses when such shocks occur. Lower inequality and increased community level employment emerge as effective avenues to less crime. JEL classification--K40, K42, O55 Key words--victimization, crime, Mozambique

This paper demonstrates that developing countries differ considerably from their developed counterparts when focus is on the nature and characteristics of short-run macroeconomic fluctuations. Cycles are generally shorter, and the stylized facts of business cycles across countries are more diverse than those of the rather uniform industrialized countries. Supply-side models are generally superior in explaining changes in output, but a 'one-size fits all' approach in formulating policy is inappropriate. Our results also illustrate the critical importance of understanding business regularities as a stepping-stone in the process of designing appropriate stabilization policy and macroeconomic management in developing countries. Key words--business cycles, detrending, developing countries, empirical regularities

Interactions between agricultural technology improvements, risk-reducing behavior, and gender roles in agricultural production in Mozambique are examined. The analysis employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that explicitly incorporates key features of the economy. These include: detailed accounting of marketing margins, home consumption, risk, and gender roles in agricultural production. Our results show that agricultural technology improvements benefit both male and female occupants of rural households. Due to economic interactions, agricultural technology improvements are particularly compelling when combined with marketing system improvements. Moreover, technological change in cassava appears to be a particularly strong lever for increasing female and overall household welfare, especially when risk is considered.

This paper explores the macroeconomic situation and medium-term perspectives of the South African economy. Three fully quantified and internally consistent scenarios are presented. The projections demonstrate that there is room for increased public spending in real terms to help address South Africa's pressing social needs. Moreover, such expansion is possible without falling into a much feared debt trap, provided moderately optimistic assumptions about the future materialize. Yet, if growth and real resource inflows falter, not even considerable moderation will be sufficient to maintain macroeconomic balance and avoid unsustainable public sector deficits.

Summary This is an introduction to the UNU-WIDER special issue of World Development on aid policy and the macroeconomic management of aid. We provide an overview of the 10 studies, grouping them under three sub-themes: the aid–growth relationship; the supply-side of aid (including its level, volatility, and coordination of donors); and the macroeconomic framework around aid. The studies in the special issue demonstrate the centrality of research methodology, the importance of disaggregation, and the need to account for country-specific situations and problems. This introduction concludes that the sometimes “over heated” debate on aid needs redirecting toward more rigorous analysis, in which the advantages—and disadvantages—of using aid for development can be evaluated in a calmer manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]