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This comment provides a critical analysis of Van Beukering and Bouman's [World Development 29 (2001) 1717] article on global paper recycling and trade. We first question their notion that developing countries specialize in waste paper utilization and developed countries in recovery activities primarily because of different patterns of waste paper trade. An increased focus on relative waste paper availability, we argue, provides us with a better understanding of global paper recycling. We also criticize some of the implicit assumptions made in their regression analysis of waste paper utilization rates. An alternative regression model is therefore derived and estimated. In contrast to the approach used by Van Beukering and Bouman our analysis (a) is consistent with basic microeconomic theory; (b) distinguishes clearly between short- and long-run impacts; and (c) produces results that support our initial conjecture that waste paper availability is the most important determinant of waste paper use. Key words--waste paper, recycling, trade, developing countries, developed countries, utilization

• Women in urban contexts make frequent, shorter trips with more stops along the way to combine multiple tasks while men follow direct and linear routes. • The cost and frequency of public transport affect women more than men. • Coverage issues like the absence of a well-connected public transport system and last-mile problems limit women's use of public transport. • Transport infrastructure design does not prioritize women's comfort. • Women's perceptions about violence and their actual safety in public spaces affect both their physical mobility and economic choices. Women and men travel differently in low- and middle-income countries. This paper provides an overview of the evidence on key features of women's travel behavior and the barriers they face in accessing public transport in developing countries, including affordability, frequency, coverage, comfort, and safety. Women make more frequent, shorter trips with more stops along the way to combine multiple tasks. In contrast, men follow direct and linear routes. As this paper shows, the cost and frequency of public transport affect women more than men, and given women's income constraints, create trade-offs between travel and other economic opportunities. This paper also highlights how the current design of public transport does not accommodate the unique needs of women. Notably, coverage issues such as a poorly connected network, including last-mile problems, limit women's use of public transport and increase their reliance on private and informal modes of transport. Infrastructure design does not prioritize women's comfort. Women's perceptions about violence and their actual safety in public spaces affects their physical mobility and economic choices. Understanding the evidence on the challenges faced by women is a first step in identifying policies and interventions that could improve women's mobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Traditional and Indigenous knowledges and strategies are overlooked and suppressed by mainstream approaches to adaptation. • Modernist adaptation approaches frame climate as something that can be controlled and understood rationally. • The suppression of traditional and Indigenous approaches to adaptation has led to increased vulnerability and marginalisation. • People's local and place-based knowledges are assets that help them better adapt to climate change. • Adaptation planners and practitioners should listen with openness to plural forms of knowing and being. The differential impacts of climate change have highlighted the need to implement fit-for-purpose interventions that are reflective of the needs of vulnerable communities. However, adaptation projects tend to favour technocratic, market-driven, and Eurocentric approaches that inadvertently disregard the place-based and contextual adaptation strategies of many communities in the Global South. The paper aims to decolonise climate change adaptation guided by the critical tenets of 'Decolonising Climate Adaptation Scholarship' (DCAS). It presents empirical case studies from Fiji, Vietnam, and the Philippines and reveals the different ways that Indigenous and local knowledge (ILK) and strategies are devalued and suppressed by modernist and developmentalist approaches to climate adaptation. The paper then foregrounds some of the adaptive techniques that resist and remain, or have been re-worked in hybrid ways with ILK. Ultimately, this paper combats the delegitimisation of ILK by mainstream climate change adaptation scholarship and highlights the need for awareness and openness to other forms of knowing and being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Conceptual and empirical framework for the impact of sectoral productivity and structural change on poverty reduction. • Poverty reduction is closely linked to aggregate labor productivity growth with a semi-elasticity of approximately −0.22. • Productivity growth in the manufacturing sector helps reduce poverty, which is more pronounced in developing Asia than in sub-Saharan Africa. • Agricultural productivity growth plays a substantial role in reducing poverty in both developing Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. • Worker reallocation to productive sectors of the economy relates to poverty reduction in both developing Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. This paper presents an empirical framework that explores the relationship between poverty reduction and changes in the production structure of developing countries. We use the new GGDC/UNU-WIDER Economic Transformation Database to measure productivity growth within sectors and structural change – the reallocation of workers across sectors – for 42 developing countries from 1990 to 2018. Regression analysis indicates that poverty reduction significantly relates to productivity growth, particularly within manufacturing, and to structural change. An attribution analysis suggests that structural change and increased agricultural productivity contributed to reducing poverty in developing countries of Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The contribution of productivity growth in manufacturing appears to be a prominent factor in poverty reduction in developing Asia but less so in sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The paper employs newly constructed structural reform indexes that focus on reforms "genuinely" implemented. • Reforms under consideration increase productivity growth, with real sector reforms having the most sizeable effects. • The pace of reforms matters since being a "strong reformer" is associated with clear productivity dividends. • The relationship between reforms and productivity is nonlinear and shaped by certain firms' characteristics. • There are complementary effects between reforms except for trade and financial reforms. Abstract This paper assesses the effects of selected structural reforms on labor productivity growth for 37 developing countries over the 2006–14 period. It combines newly constructed reform indexes using the IMF Monitoring of Fund Arrangements dataset and firm-level productivity from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. The paper highlights the following results. Structural reforms under consideration in this study, i.e., financial, fiscal, real sector, and trade reforms, significantly improve productivity at the firm level. Interestingly, real sector reforms have the most sizeable effects on firms' productivity. The relationship between reforms and productivity is nonlinear and shaped by certain firms' characteristics, including financial access, a distortionary environment, and firms' size. The pace of reforms matters since being a "strong reformer" is associated with a clear productivity dividend for firms. Finally, except for financial and trade reforms, all macroeconomic reforms considered are bilaterally complementary in improving firms' productivity. The findings are robust to several sensitivity checks including alternatives measure of productivity, and a counterfactual experiment based on unsuccessful reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • International government borrowing from multilateral development banks is countercyclical. • International government borrowing from private sector lenders is procyclical. • There are regional differences in the countercyclicality of multilateral lending. • Regional development banks are now less countercyclical than what they used to be. • Changes in rating methodologies may have affected the cyclicality of lending by regional development banks. Abstract The paper shows that international government borrowing from multilateral development banks is countercyclical while international government borrowing from private sector lenders is procyclical. The countercyclicality of multilateral development bank (MDB) lending is mostly driven by the behavior of the World Bank (borrowing from regional development banks tends to be acyclical). The paper also shows that MDB lending to Latin America and East Asia is more countercyclical than MDB lending to other regions. Private sector lending is instead procyclical in all developing regions. While the cyclicality of MDB lending does not depend on domestic or international conditions, private lending becomes particularly procyclical in periods of limited global capital flows. By focusing on both borrower and lender heterogeneity, the paper shows that the cyclical properties of international government debt are mostly driven by credit supply shocks. Demand factors appear to be less important drivers of procyclical international government borrowing. The focus on supply and demand factors is different from the traditional push and pull classification, as push and pull factors could affect both the demand and the supply of international government debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • This paper estimates the ability of farmers in India to adapt to high temperatures. • The analysis uses short-term weather fluctuations and spatial variation in long-run climate. • Results suggest that adaptation is modestly effective for moderate levels of heat. • Results suggest that adaptation to extreme heat is much more difficult. Abstract Projections suggest that the damages from climate change will be substantial for developing countries. Understanding the ability of households in these countries to adapt to climate change is critical in order to determine the magnitude of the potential damages. In this paper, I investigate the ability of farmers in India to adapt to higher temperatures. I use a methodology that exploits short-term weather fluctuations as well as spatial variation in long-run climate. Specifically, I estimate how damaging high temperatures are for districts that experience high temperatures more or less frequently. I find that the losses from high temperatures are lower in heat-prone districts, a result that is consistent with adaptation. However, while adaptation appears to be modestly effective for moderate levels of heat, my results suggest that adaptation to extreme heat is much more difficult. Extremely high temperatures do grave damage to crops, even in places that experience these temperature extremes regularly. The persistence of negative impacts of high temperatures, even in areas that experience high temperatures frequently, underscores the need for development policies that emphasize risk mitigation and explicitly account for climate-change-related risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public Works (PW) programs are popular development interventions due to their potential ‘double dividend’ of transferring income to the poor while at the same time creating public infrastructure. However, PW programs are costly and demanding from an administrative perspective and it is not clear whether they are the most cost-effective intervention to reduce poverty. Therefore, an assessment of PW programs needs to understand which benefits and costs these programs entail relative to other interventions, and whether or not the extra cost can be outweighed by generating benefits over and above those of alternative interventions, such as Cash Transfer programs. This paper seeks to identify these benefits, and develops a conceptual framework that highlights four mechanisms through which PW programs could strengthen the productive capacity of poor households beyond the effects of Cash Transfers: productive investments, labor market effects, skills development, and increases in trade and production. It then reviews available empirical evidence from PW programs in developing countries. The results suggest that PW programs can induce productive investments via income and insurance effects when the program is sufficiently reliable and long-term. PW programs can also have positive welfare effects by raising wages, but potential adverse effects on labor markets have to be taken into account. Implicit or explicit training components of PW programs do not seem to increase the employability or business earnings of participants. Finally, there is only scant empirical evidence on the productive effects of the public infrastructure generated by PW programs, and further research is crucial to understand and quantify those effects. This paper concludes that PW programs are only preferable over alternative interventions if they generate substantial investments among the target group, if there is clear evidence that private-sector wages are below equilibrium wages, or if the public infrastructure generated in PW programs has substantial growth effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 1996 and 2014, 30 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries benefited from debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). The architects of the HIPC initiative and MDRI posited that these programs would spur growth and investment. This paper exploits the variability of participation in the HIPC initiative and MDRI across time and country, in order to identity the effect of participation on growth and investment. I find that the decision point and post-completion point periods of the enhanced HIPC initiative are associated with a 1.762 percentage point and 3.139 percentage point increase in public investment, respectively. The impact is higher in countries with low access to international capital markets. The enhanced HIPC initiative increases private investment by 1.838 percentage points during the post-completion point period in countries with low access to international capital, for approximately two years, but has no effect on growth or foreign direct investment. I find no effect of the original HIPC initiative or MDRI on growth, private investment, public investment or foreign direct investment. I find no heterogeneous impact of the enhanced HIPC initiative on growth and foreign direct investment by level of indebtedness, access to international capital markets, or institutional quality. As the measures of institutional quality have barely changed between 1996 and 2014 in HIPC countries, the results of this paper suggest that without a strong improvement in institutional quality, debt relief is unlikely to boost investment and growth in Africa. Possible future debt relief in SSA countries should be associated with a component directly aimed at improving institutional quality. If an improvement of institutional quality is not feasible in the short run, debt relief in SSA countries should aim to support public investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Out of school children are a critical issue in education and development. Very little is known as to whether a disability is associated with a higher risk of being out of school for children in developing countries. This paper presents and analyzes the gap in enrolment in both primary and secondary education between children with and without disabilities using for the first time an internationally tested and comparable measure of functional difficulties (e.g. seeing, hearing, and walking). Using nationally representative datasets from 15 developing countries, this paper finds a consistent and statistically significant disability gap in both primary and secondary school attendance. The paper econometrically examines potential explanations for this disability gap using several specifications. A household fixed effect model shows that disability reduces the probability of school attendance by a median 30.9 percentage points, and that neither individual characteristics nor their socio-economic and unobserved household characteristics explain the disability gap. While general poverty reduction policies through for instance social transfers to the poor may improve school attendance in general, they seem unlikely to close the disability gap in schooling. The disability gap for primary–age children follows an inverted U-shape relationship with GNI per capita. This suggests that, as GNI per capita rises and more resources become available for improving access to education in middle-income countries, children without disabilities increasingly attend school, whereas the situation of children with disabilities may improve more slowly. Despite the adoption of an inclusive education agenda globally, this paper shows that more research and policy attention is needed to make schooling disability-inclusive in developing countries. More attention is also necessary regarding the functional difficulties experienced by children, as some may be preventable and the schooling inequalities associated with them may thus be avoidable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper presents the results of 20 randomized experiments aimed at understanding the low take-up of in-patient health insurance observed in developing countries. Take-up does not increase when participants receive information about the product, or an assistance to register, or small subsidies of 2, 10, or 30%. Take-up does not increase when the same information is provided by local respected community leaders, when participants are offered an in-kind gift (a chicken) if they register, when participants are offered the possibility to contribute lower and more frequent payments, or the possibility to pay by cellphone. A full subsidy generates a mere 45% take-up (with no retention after one year). In contrast to these low take-up rates, presenting the same information without any subsidies to existing informal groups raises take-up to 12% (still 7% after one year), as well as trust and knowledge of the product. Social networks play a major role in the adoption of health insurance. This paper provides a cost-effective way to increase take-up of health insurance, while subsidies are found to be largely ineffective at raising take-up in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the driving factors of manufacturing development in Africa. Using the system-GMM technique with four-year average panel data over the period 1995–2014, including 53 African countries, the paper finds four main results. (1) There is a U-shaped relationship between the manufacturing share of GDP and per capita GDP. (2) Exchange rate depreciation stimulates Africa’s manufacturing sector. (3) Good governance, especially a low level of corruption and better government effectiveness contribute to Africa’s manufacturing development. (4) The size of domestic market positively affects the manufacturing share of GDP. On the other hand, the paper finds no significant effects of FDI and urbanization on manufacturing development. The implication of these findings is that improving the level of competitiveness, expanding the size of domestic market, combating corruption as well as improving government effectiveness are key for Africa’s manufacturing sector development. Moreover, the U-shaped relationship between the manufacturing share of GDP and per capita GDP, implies that African countries should not expect industrialization to automatically happen with income increase, but rather, they should proactively tackle key obstacles to the development of the manufacturing sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper explores the challenges for analysis of urbanization which can arise from insufficiently rigorous definition of what is “urban”. Policy makers and investors still use the ideas of “rural” versus “urban” and increasingly assume that the pace of urbanization in African countries is a measure of positive economic structural change. However most urban definitions do not incorporate economic characteristics. In Africa widely differing urban population thresholds and administrative factors are the most common criteria. The thresholds are often so low that many rural settlements are also defined as “urban” or they may be included on population density criteria, meaning the apparent pace of urbanization is inflated unrealistically. These issues are exemplified in this paper through detailed examples drawn from Kenya. It uses a range of sources including official census data and urban data published by Africapolis, as well as aerial images of rural and urban settlements in Kenya. It demonstrates how the use of population density criteria has inflated Kenyan urban data by the incorporation of very large numbers of rural people and explains how this can lead to entirely misleading interpretations of local and national urban and migration trends. Errors in urban figures can therefore have serious policy implications. It is argued that such errors can be reduced by not relying on a single criterion to define “urban” or by triangulating data on rural and urban settlements with other relevant information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Developing country performance with respect to economic policies and institutional behavior is a common criterion for the allocation of aid among recipient countries. This paper examines how performance is used, arguing that performance is too narrowly defined. A more appropriate definition is one that controls for the economic vulnerability and human capital of developing countries. Econometric analysis of cross-section and panel data is presented that supports this contention. The paper also contends that performance and exogenous economic shocks are likely to be pro-cyclical. This implies a double punishment when aid is allocated according to performance. Evidence of such punishment is also provided. The paper concludes by arguing that economic vulnerability and human capital variables should augment performance measures in aid allocation decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper examines the role that multinational enterprises (MNEs) and foreign direct investments (FDI) can have in enhancing the access to electricity for local communities in developing countries based on the quality of home and host institutions. Access to electricity is a marker for development but it is far from being universal in developing countries. The shortage of electricity is mainly the consequence of inability of governments in planning, financing, and developing necessary electricity infrastructure. In this context, investments from other actors can be essential. Particularly, we focus on the role of FDI and MNEs. We claim that when MNEs invest in developing countries, they are incentivized to solve the lack of electricity infrastructure mainly for two reasons: to guarantee their business activities and to gain legitimacy with their local stakeholders. In addition, we argue that MNEs and FDI from institutionally underdeveloped countries will be more prone to develop infrastructure for the provision of electricity to local population, as generally they suffer from a negative stereotype. For this study, we rely on 1,547 observations composed of pairs of 83 home countries and 15 host countries in sub-Saharan Africa, observed from 2005 to 2011. Due to the nature of the database, we adopt panel data techniques, i.e., system-GMM and corrected Least Square Dummy Variable estimators. We find that FDI promotes access to electricity in developing countries with weak institutions and this is more likely true when FDI come from institutionally underdeveloped countries. These results are far from obvious, as they controvert common idea among institutional scholars that a regulatory authority is essential in the provision of infrastructure. In conclusion, with this paper we partially rehabilitate the image of MNEs investing in developing countries, by demonstrating that—under certain conditions—they could contribute to energy poverty alleviation of local population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the link between joining global value chains (GVCs) and firms' environmental performance. Based on new survey data for firms in countries in Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and MENA, we use propensity score matching (PSM) to compare similar companies that differ in terms of GVC participation. Our results show that firms that enter GVCs perform better across several environmental indicators. In particular, these firms are more likely to adopt environmentally friendly production technologies, comply with more demanding standards and regulations and, in the case of manufacturing firms, monitor CO2 emissions along their supply chains. Moreover, by combining PSM with difference-in-differences, we find that becoming active in GVCs is also linked to more efficient energy use. Our results are stronger for firms in non-EU countries, and highlight the importance of environmental regulation in ensuring that global supply chains go hand in hand with greener production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Developing countries' (DCs') people who are neither poor nor rich are increasingly categorized as the "middle class". • The heterogeneous socio-economic characteristics and subjective preferences of this group are mapped over four countries. • DCs' middle-classes share strong and identifying commonalities as to consumption, investment and preference for stability. • They also present strong specificities across subgroups that might preclude class identification and stabilization. • Knowing better this vulnerable group is urgent to target policies and investment on their socio-economic consolidation. The term "middle class" is increasingly used to qualify the mass of people in developing countries who are neither poor nor rich and share consumption patterns historically associated with the western middle class. However, what differentiates them from the ideal-typical middle class, as well as the extent to which emerging middle classes differ across developing countries, has only been marginally documented by economists to date. This article proposes to scratch beneath the surface of the so-called middle-class that is burgeoning in developing countries by documenting the commonalities and differences hidden by the all-encompassing term of "middle class" for a set of developing countries exhibiting different levels of income, economic structures and socio-political systems: Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Turkey and Vietnam. Relying on quantitative and qualitative micro-economic data, our paper compares the objective characteristics (occupation, education, income), behavior and subjective expectations of the people standing in the middle of the income distribution in the four countries. Four main research questions structure the paper. Where is the middle? How is the middle specific? Who is in the middle? What does the middle aspire to? Results show that the middle-income group in each country covers distinct realities. Although some similar characteristics and behaviors are observable, our results reveal a strong heterogeneity within each national middle class, with no fewer than four to seven socio-economic subgroups, and strong country-specific traits as most of the subgroups are deeply rooted in the country's specific historical trajectory. In each country, our analysis also unveils a pattern of bipolarization between a rather affluent and stable middle class and a "new" or more vulnerable one. Finally, middle class members appear to be characterized by an individualist positioning and the absence of a marked political commitment, challenging the common assumption that developing countries' middle classes are agents of political change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Following a precise evaluation protocol that was applied to a pool of 202 articles published between 2003 and 2014, this paper evaluates the existing evidence of how and to what extent capture fisheries and aquaculture contribute to improving nutrition, food security, and economic growth in developing and emergent countries. In doing so we evaluate the quality and scientific rigor of that evidence, identify the key conclusions that emerge from the literature, and assess whether these conclusions are consistent across the sources. The results of the assessment show that while some specific topics are consistently and rigorously documented, thus substantiating some of the claims found in the literature, other areas of research still lack the level of disaggregated data or an appropriate methodology to reach consistency and robust conclusions. More specifically, the analysis reveals that while fish contributes undeniably to nutrition and food security, the links between fisheries/aquaculture and poverty alleviation are complex and still unclear. In particular national and household level studies on fisheries’ contributions to poverty alleviation lack good conceptual models and produce inconsistent results. For aquaculture, national and household studies tend to focus on export value chains and use diverse approaches. They suggest some degree of poverty alleviation and possibly other positive outcomes for adopters, but these outcomes also depend on the small-scale farming contexts and on whether adoption was emergent or due to development assistance interventions. Impacts of fish trade on food security and poverty alleviation are ambiguous and confounded by a focus on international trade and a lack of consistent methods. The influences of major drivers (decentralization, climate change, demographic transition) are still insufficiently documented and therefore poorly understood. Finally the evaluation reveals that evidence-based research and policy narratives are often disconnected, with some of the strongest and long-lasting policy narratives lacking any strong and rigorous evidence-based validation. Building on these different results, this paper identifies six key gaps facing policy-makers, development practitioners, and researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary The role of industry associations in shaping policy through various lobbying activities is well established. In most cases, while such activities are deemed essential from an industry perspective, they also carry negative connotations connected to narrow rent-seeking and the pursuit of elites’ interests which run counter to the public good and discourage competition and subsequent innovation. As such, industry associations have long been excluded from discussions regarding the relational dynamics and evolution of innovation systems. In contrast, this paper builds upon more recent work that places industry associations as key intermediary actors that facilitate knowledge exchange and institutional capacity building, particularly in the context of developing countries where limited institutional capacities and substantial knowledge gaps can limit both innovation and development. Employing a qualitative cross-national comparison, this paper examines the changing roles and activities of biopharmaceutical industry associations in the development of the South African and Indian pharmaceutical industries, with a particular focus on government–industry relations. For doing so, the paper captures developments during three main periods through which both the South African and Indian biopharmaceutical industries have similarly evolved, although within different national contexts: (1) pre-liberalization, (2) expanding pluralism, and (3) increasing partnership. We argue that in South Africa and India, particular historical trajectories and lack of institutional capacities are shifting industry associations away from ineffective lobbying to a new political approach that emphasizes partnering with government in the pursuit of not only narrow industry objectives, but also broader development aims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Effective evidence-based policy making in development requires rigorous measurement of costs as well as impacts. This paper discusses important challenges and relevant solutions for implementing cost-effectiveness analysis and comparing the relative cost-effectiveness of programs across settings in the context of education. Adapting development programs from one context to another requires many assumptions. Most of the discussion of those assumptions, to date, has focused on the context-specificity (or external validity) of impact estimates. This study examines the sensitivity of cost-effectiveness analysis to errors in impact estimates, as well as the sensitivity of costs to context, and explores how biases such as recall and pilot bias may lead to over- or under-estimates of cost-effectiveness. We use data on the cost-effectiveness of 27 student learning programs and 16 attendance-boosting programs across Africa and Asia to demonstrate the magnitude of these challenges, as well as potential solutions. We show that comparing Monte Carlo simulations of cost-effectiveness to certain benchmarks and adapting the largest cost elements to local prices (i.e., parameter variation analysis) can remove much of the uncertainty surrounding cost-effectiveness estimates, and we propose that biases can be minimized through the use of detailed templates for cost reporting at the time of program implementation. Thus, this paper not only provides evidence of previously neglected challenges for cost-effectiveness analysis, but – more importantly – provides practical recommendations for undertaking this crucial stage in development planning well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper analyzes the impact of political liberalization on receipt of foreign aid. It distinguishes different types of donors facing different constraints in rewarding democratization with foreign aid, notably bilateral donors, the World Bank, and the European Commission. Based on a sample of 174 recipient countries from 1995 to 2009, the paper jointly examines short-term dynamics and long-term effects of sustained liberalization. Except for the World Bank, donors react to regime change. Bilateral donors are found to reward political liberalization in the second year after transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Women were substantially more likely than men to stop working in the initial phase of the Covid-19 pandemic. • For those who remained employed, changes in sector and employment type were generally similar between demographic groups. • Between April and August of 2020, employment rose in the 10 countries with available data but was below pre-crisis levels. • Phone surveys, while biased, provide accurate group disparities in employment rates following the onset of the crisis. This paper examines how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the employment of different groups of workers across 40 mostly low and middle-income countries. Employment outcomes during the crisis are tracked through high-frequency phone surveys conducted by the World Bank and national statistics offices. Our results show that larger shares of female, young, less educated, and urban workers stopped working at the beginning of the pandemic. Gender gaps in work stoppage stemmed mainly from gender differences within sectors rather than differential employment patterns of men and women across sectors. Differences in work stoppage between urban and rural workers were markedly smaller than those across gender, age, and education groups. Preliminary results from 10 countries suggest that following the initial shock at the start of the pandemic, employment rates partially recovered between April and August 2020, with greater gains for those groups that had borne the brunt of the early jobs losses. Although the high-frequency phone surveys over-represent household heads and therefore overestimate employment rates, a validation exercise for five countries suggests that they provide a reasonably accurate measure of disparities in employment levels by gender, education, and urban/rural location following the onset of the crisis, although they perform less well in capturing disparities between age groups. These results shed new light on the distributional labor market consequences of the COVID-19 crisis in developing countries, and suggest that real-time phone surveys, despite their lack of representativeness, are a valuable source of information to measure differential employment impacts across groups during an unfolding crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Deficient taxpayer information is a major impediment for taxation, particularly in developing countries. • This paper presents field experimental evidence on promoting registration in an online tax registry in Brazil. • E-mails requesting registration significantly increased registration rates, but adding a lottery reward had an unintended negative effect. • Our analysis of tax payments suggests that some taxpayers increased compliance, but that the lottery lowered payments for high-value properties. • We highlight one mechanism that can reconcile different results in the literature: rewards may signal voluntariness and lack of enforcement. Deficient taxpayer information is a major impediment for taxation, particularly in developing countries. However, in contrast to the well-established literature on nudging tax compliance, field experimental evidence on low-cost interventions to improve the taxpayer registry is scarce. This paper presents the first evidence on promoting registration in an online tax registry. We randomized outreach communications to over 160 K Brazilian property taxpayers, thereby targeting a tax considered a sleeping giant in Latin America. A simple request to join the registry, embedded in a graphically designed e-mail, substantially increased registration relative to a control treatment. Strikingly, however, adding a lottery reward unintendedly reduced registration in comparison to the simple request. Survey evidence, unavailable in previous studies, points to altered effective motivations to register as an explanation. We highlight one mechanism that can reconcile different results in the literature: rewards may signal voluntariness and lack of enforcement. This is also consistent with the results of our analysis of property tax payments. It suggests that the e-mails increased tax payments of certain taxpayers, but that the lottery treatment lowered payment rates for high-value properties. In sum, nudging may be one element of a successful strategy to improve taxpayer registration. However, while simple low-cost outreach activities improve registration, the use of low-powered incentives can have adverse effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Rural development is widely believed to interact with the structural transformation of an economy, but little is known about how this happens in developing countries. • This paper explores the impact of structural transformation on rural development through the lens of analyzing the role of urban growth in creating off-farm employment for rural labor in China. Contributing to the literature, we construct a global measure (e.g. the urban gravity index) to approximate structural transformation at the national level, which incorporates the complex spatial spill over effects of urban growth into a simple measure. • We use five waves of farm surveys for 1,234 households for the period of 2000–2018, matching with a newly constructed urban gravity index for 370 cities, and explore the impact of urbanization process on off-farm employment. Methodologically, we adopt the panel fixed effect model and choose alternative instruments at the city to identify urban growth from rural transformation. • We show that rapid urban growth in China has significantly contributed to rural development by increasing off-farm employment for rural labor by 15–18 million annually since 2000. Moreover, the positive impact started with the emergence of a few large metropolitan cities but ended with the growth of local, relatively small cities, suggesting the interaction between structural transformation and rural development is at a nationwide level. Rural development is widely believed to interact with the structural transformation, but little is known about how this happens in developing countries. This paper explores the impact of structural transformation on rural development through the length of analyzing the role of urban growth in creating off-farm employment for rural labor in China. By combining five waves of farm surveys for 1,234 households for the period of 2000–2018 with a newly constructed urban gravity index for 370 cities, we show that rapid urban growth in China has significantly contributed to rural development by increasing off-farm employment for rural labor by 47–71 million since 2000. Moreover, the positive impact started with the emergence of a few large metropolitan cities but ended with the growth of local, relatively small cities, suggesting the interaction between structural transformation and rural development is at a nationwide level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper investigates why and under which institutional circumstances female membership in microfinance institutions (MFI) improves MFI performance in terms of debt repayment. Specifically, this paper theorizes that female membership in MFIs improves the MFI’s performance through enhanced debt repayment, especially under adverse cognitive and regulatory institutional conditions. We draw upon unique qualitative and quantitative data covering 26 microfinance projects in 22 African, Eastern European, Latin American, and Asian countries. This study has implications for the microfinance literature in that it challenges the widely held assumption that female participation has a positive effect on MFI performance under all institutional circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The global economic crisis raised the urgency of reforming the Bretton Woods organizations in order to get more “buy in” from developing countries. But the “voice” reforms announced in 2010, heralded as a major shift in favor of developing countries, left them severely under-represented relative to their weight in the world economy, both collectively and many individually. This paper reveals how the World Bank and representatives of western states manipulated the process to make voting power changes appear substantial. The paper then discusses alternative voting power systems for the Bank, in light of the generally accepted need to enhance the legitimacy of the organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Microinsurance markets have exhibited strong growth rates in recent years. Great parts of the industry are, however, challenged by fundamental issues of providing insurance products, one of the most significant of which is pricing risk. In this paper, we provide a nontechnical analysis of insurance pricing problems and a review of the set of opportunities that can address some of the specific pricing constraints in microinsurance markets. A key contribution of this paper is the investigation of conventional techniques as potential solutions for improving the pricing of insurance risk in microinsurance markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The aim of this paper is to assess the dynamic impact of banking crises on output for a panel of developing economies. Using an unbalanced panel of 159 countries from 1970 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises produce significant output losses. Output losses are larger for relatively richer economies, characterized by a higher level of financial deepening and larger current account imbalances. Flexible exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policy, and liquidity support policies have been found to attenuate the effect of the crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The paper examines the extent to which emerging social transfer programs in developing countries can improve the productive capacity of households in poverty and contribute to micro-level growth. It introduces a basic framework linking transfers to growth mediating processes and productive capacity outcomes. This is then used to organize and assess relevant findings from program evaluation studies. The paper concludes that social transfer programs can have positive effects on the productive capacity of poor and poorest groups; but further research is needed to identify and measure the size and significance of these effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Positive outliers are valuable as they show how progress occurs against the odds. • Researchers have largely relied on experts to identify positive outliers. • By relying on experts, less well known positive outliers have been overlooked. • A 3-stage methodology promises to uncover 'hidden' cases of developmental progress. • The methodology is used to identify under recognised cases of bribery reduction. Increasingly, development scholars and practitioners are reaching for exceptional examples of positive change to better understand how developmental progress occurs. These positive outlying cases are often referred to as 'positive exceptions', but also 'positive deviants' and 'pockets of effectiveness'. Studies in this literature promise to identify and examine positive developmental change occurring in otherwise poorly governed states. However, to identify success stories, such research largely relies on the reputations of cases, and, by doing so, overlooks cases that have not garnered a reputation for their developmental progress. This paper presents a novel three-stage methodology for identifying and examining positive outlier cases that does not rely solely on reputations. It therefore promises to uncover 'hidden' cases of developmental progress as well as those that have been recognized. The utility of the methodology is demonstrated through its use in uncovering two case studies in which surprising rates of bribery reduction occurred, though the methodology has much broader applicability. The advantage of the methodology is validated by the fact that, in both cases identified, the reductions in bribery that occurred were previously unrecognized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We study a large-scale expansion of integrated center-based care in Colombia. • We find large positive effects on receptive vocabulary that persist after 5 years. • The impact implies a reduction of 35% in the cognitive socioeconomic gap. • We report positive but less robust effects on children's nutritional status. • Integrated early childhood care can be effective and sustainable at large-scale. Abstract The focus in developing countries is shifting from increasing access to early childhood care services to improving its quality. In light of the inclusion of early childhood development in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, there has emerged a global call for early childhood programs that integrate nutrition, health and development components. However, large-scale studies of integrated early childhood interventions are scarce in developing countries, and thus, little is known about its effectiveness and sustainability. In this paper we study the immediate and medium-run effects of a large-scale expansion of an integrated package of services including care, education, health and nutrition on child growth and development, by analyzing the expansion of the Colombian national early childhood strategy known as " From Zero to Forever " between 2011 and 2013. The results indicate that the increased access to integrated center-based care had a large immediate effect on vocabulary that persists five years into the intervention, and less robust effects on nutritional status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Cash transfers increase farm production by 33.5 percent. • None of these impacts are channelled through transfer-induced changes in farm labour. • In fact, cash transfers have no significant impact on family labour supply or on demand for hired labour. • This implies that the productive impacts of cash transfers flow through other channels, different from the labour one. Abstract This paper has the double aim to study whether unconditional cash transfers have an impact on farm production and to look into the causal mechanisms through which government transfers produce productive impacts. We use mediation analysis to identify the total effect of transfers on farm production and to isolate the influence of the labour channel from other transmission channels. In particular, we analyze whether changes in farm production are caused by transfer-induced changes in the use of farm labour – either by reallocating family labour between off- and on-farm work or by changes in the demand for hired labour – or if other transmission channels are at work. We find that cash transfers have a sizable impact on farm production but they do not lead to increased use of family or hired labour on the farm, which implies that the productive impacts of cash transfers flow through other channels, different from the labour one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The Indian trade liberalisation has encouraged the dietary shift from cereals to animal products in rural regions. • This unintended trade outcome is associated with both improved intake in micronutrients and higher rate of obesity. • Apart from income and food prices, food tastes are found to be an important channel of this trade-diet link. • Complementary policies are needed to enhance the coherence between trade policy and nutrition actions. Abstract This paper investigates how trade liberalisation has contributed to a dietary shift from one dominated by traditional staples to one high in animal products, a trend that is associated with both improved intake in micronutrients, and higher rates of obesity and other diet-related diseases in developing countries. In the context of India's trade liberalisation in 1991, we examine whether the difference in consumption of cereals and animal products across rural regions before and after the reforms can be attributed to their differential degree of exposure to tariff reductions. The estimates reveal that trade reforms have a negative impact on cereal consumption through reducing edible oil prices and a positive effect on the consumption of animal products through enhancing consumer tastes towards these foods. These findings provide evidence for the role of trade in supporting dietary diversity and highlight the need for complementary policies to enhance the coherence between trade policy and nutrition actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • European Union fishing access agreements affect fish exports from African countries. • Exports from 15 African countries to the OECD decrease when an agreement is inactive or terminated. • Export volumes as well as the probability to trade decrease. • Mixed agreements (with many different species) have more pronounced effects. • Gains from trade hinges on proper management of resources and proper redistribution. Abstract Fishing access agreements have been widely criticized but there is little quantitative evidence of their effects on the economies of developing countries. The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of the European Union's fishing access agreements on 15 African countries' fish exports to the OECD. More specifically, we investigate the effects on the extensive and intensive margins of trade, i.e. the probability and volume of trade, when fishing access agreements that have previously been active become inactive. Using the gravity model of trade and detailed data on exports of fishery products for the period 1992–2010 we show that trade with the OECD is negatively affected when EU fishing access agreements are inactive. Export volumes as well as the probability to trade with OECD countries are affected. We look at effects of mixed agreements (with many different species) as well as tuna agreements (tuna and tuna-like species) and find that mixed agreements affect both margins whereas tuna agreements only affect the intensive margin. We conclude that EU fishing access agreements could be a channel through which developing countries gain from trade but that the gains hinge on proper redistribution of benefits and proper management of resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • GVC involvement of host countries is associated to local sourcing by foreign investors. • The larger the participation in GVCs the higher the levels of local sourcing. • Upstream specialization is positively correlated to more local sourcing and support to local suppliers. • These effects are larger in countries with higher education spending and stronger rule of law. Abstract The local sourcing of intermediate products is one the main channels for foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers. This paper investigates whether and how participation and positioning in the global value chains (GVCs) of host countries is associated to local sourcing by foreign investors. Matching two firm-level data sets on 19 Sub-Saharan African countries and Vietnam to country-sector level measures of GVC involvement, we find that more intense GVC participation and upstream specialization are associated to a higher share of inputs sourced locally by foreign investors. These effects are larger in countries with stronger rule of law and better education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The growth of R&D in East Asia has triggered the notion of a new innovation geography, where R&D is no longer a privilege of the traditional OECD countries. What does this mean for mid-sized emerging economies, without the scale advantages and bargaining power of India or China? This paper uses Turkey as a case to examine the continual unevenness of international R&D investments. By analyzing opportunities and limitations for local initiatives in the telecommunications, pharmaceutical, and automotive industries the paper finds that active private capital, a sufficient scale of production, and focused public policies are needed to attract international R&D. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: This paper explores the role of indigenous and foreign innovation efforts in technological upgrading in developing countries, taking into account sectoral specificities in technical change. Using a Chinese firm-level panel dataset covering 2001–05, the paper decomposes productivity growth into technical change and efficiency improvement and examines the impact of indigenous and foreign innovation efforts on these changes. Indigenous firms are found to be the leading force on the technological frontier in the low- and medium-technology industries, while foreign-invested firms enjoy a clear lead in the high-technology sector. Collective indigenous R&D activities at the industry level are found to be the major driver of technology upgrading of indigenous firms that push out the technology frontier. While foreign investment appears to contribute to static industry capabilities, R&D activities of foreign-invested firms have exerted a significant negative effect on the technical change of local firms over the sample period. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights • We find positive effects on prices and income from sale of certified products. • However, we find no change in overall household income and assets. • Wages for workers are not higher in certified production. • Context is crucial in explaining variation in effects. • Impact evaluations on certification need better study design and reporting. Abstract Certification systems (CS) set and monitor voluntary standards to make agricultural production sustainable in socio-economic terms and agricultural trade fairer for producers and workers. They try to achieve a wide range of socio-economic and environmental effects through bundles of interventions that include the process of standard setting and compliance, advocacy among consumers, capacity building for producers, building supply chains, price interventions, and the application of acceptable labour standards, overall to improve the wellbeing of farmers and agricultural workers. This paper presents the results of a mixed-method systematic review that synthesized the literature on socio-economic effects of certification systems on agricultural producers and wage workers in low and middle income countries. The review followed the Campbell Collaboration guidelines for systematic reviews, and included studies published between 1990 and 2016 in different languages, with evidence on low and middle income countries. The review included a quantitative effectiveness question focused on a range of intermediate (e.g. prices, wages) and endpoint outcomes (e.g. household income). It also included a question on barriers, facilitators and contextual factors shaping effectiveness which drew on qualitative or mixed-method studies. Eligible certification systems were based on second- (industry-level) or third-party certifications, and excluded own-company standards. For the effectiveness review, quantitative impact evaluations must use experimental or non-experimental methods demonstrating control for selection bias. With these inclusion criteria, the review includes 43 studies used for analysing quantitative effects, and 136 qualitative studies for synthesizing barriers, enablers and other contextual factors. Most included studies report on initiatives in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa and focus primarily on agricultural producers. The quality of the included studies is mixed, and several studies are weak on a number of methodological fronts, especially on statistical reporting. Overall, there is limited and mixed evidence on the effects of CS on a range of intermediate and final socio-economic outcomes for agricultural producers and wage workers. There are positive effects on prices and income from the sale of produce is higher for certified farmers. However, workers' wages do not seem to benefit from the presence of CS and, further along the causal chain, we find no evidence that total household income improves with certification. The integrated synthesis of quantitative and qualitative studies shows that context matters substantially in all causal chains and multiple factors shape the effectiveness and causal mechanisms that link interventions associated with certification and the wellbeing of producers, workers and their families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper explores how the choice of a country’s exchange rate regime may affect exchange rate misalignment for developing and developed countries. A measure of misalignment is obtained by using a panel cointegration vector estimator. This paper finds that for developing countries, an intermediate exchange rate regime (a regime falling somewhere between a pure float and a hard peg) is most effective in preventing exchange rate misalignment. Additionally, the choice of an exchange rate regime as a means to limit misalignment matters for developing countries, but does not seem to matter for developed countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: This paper assesses the effect of the steadily growing remittance flows to sub-Saharan Africa. Though the region receives only a small portion of the total recorded remittances to developing countries, and the volume of aid flows to sub-Saharan Africa swamps remittances, this paper finds that remittances, which are a stable, private transfer, have a direct poverty-mitigating effect, and promote financial development. These findings hold even after factoring in the reverse causality between remittances, poverty, and financial development. The paper posits that formalizing such flows can serve as an effective access point for “unbanked” individuals, and households. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: What causes developing countries to receive different levels of international remittances? This paper addresses this question by using new data on such variables as the skill composition of migrants, poverty, and interest and exchange rates to examine the determinants of remittances. The paper finds that the skill composition of migrants does matter in remittance determination. Countries which export a larger share of high-skilled (educated) migrants receive less per capita remittances than countries which export a larger proportion of low-skilled migrants. It also finds that the level of poverty in a labor-sending country does not have a positive impact on the level of remittances received. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• The paper tests a new framework for explaining social transfers through analysis of eight sub-Saharan African countries. • The paper examines the 'institutionalization' of social transfers, and offers a new index for assessing this. • Social transfer institutionalization results from political survival strategies and transnational policy coalitions. • Either policy coalitions steer governments towards adoption, before competitive elections drive institutionalisation. • Or elites respond to perceived distributional crises, augmented by external support. The new phase of social protection expansion in the global south remains poorly understood. Current interpretations of the spread of social transfers in sub-Saharan Africa tend to emphasize the influence of elections and donor pressure, often by drawing correlations from statistical data, and focusing on the moment of programme adoption. This study adopts a different approach that traces the actual process through which countries have not just adopted but institutionalized social transfers. We test a new theoretical framework through within and cross-case analysis of the degree to which social protection programmes have become institutionalized in eight African countries. Two main pathways emerge: the first confirms the sense that both donors and elections matter, but goes further in showing the particular ways in which these drivers combine. In particular, transnational policy coalitions tend to play a leading role in adoption, whereas governments pursue the further institutionalization of social transfers as a top-down response to competitive elections. However, we also identify an alternative pathway that involves electorally uncompetitive countries; here, the primary motivation is not elections but elite perceptions of vulnerability in the face of distributional crises, augmented by ideas and resources from transnational policy coalitions. Consequently, the latest phase of social transfer development results from the interplay of political survival strategies and transnational policy coalitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Future climate change policy in developing countries is likely to require both technology transfer and the achievement of a “development dividend.” This paper analyzes how cross-sector partnerships between investors, municipalities, and citizens can enhance both technology transfer and local deliberation about development benefits. Adopting a political institutional approach, the paper compares examples of partnerships involving waste-to-energy investment in India, the Philippines, and Thailand to consider how more and less complex forms of contracting and deliberation may advance policy. Building partnerships that can reduce costs and increase local deliberation is an important complement to formal mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: In this paper, two relatively new science-based technologies—biotechnology and nanotechnology—are assessed to determine whether they provide windows of opportunity to less developed countries (LDCs) for catch up. By examining international patent and firm foundation trends in both industries, we found that Brazil, China, and India have jumped into these two potential catching up technologies. The paper turns to a discussion of the approaches to overcoming entry barriers that have been successful in this context and also describes why only a few countries are currently in a position to take advantage of them to facilitate catching up. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: This paper is an introduction to eight papers included in this special issue on the impact of globalization on the world’s poor, arising out of the first conceptual and methodological workshop for the UNU-WIDER project in Helsinki, October 2004. The authors of the papers in this issue focus on the different channels and transmission mechanisms through which the process of globalization affects different aspects and dimensions of poverty in the developing world. These numerous channels interact and the net effects on poverty depend on the relative strength of the positive and negative forces of globalization. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Based on a new data set, this paper develops two innovative indicators to measure gender inequalities in developing countries. The indicators measure different aspects of constraints imposed on women by social institutions, that is, laws, norms, traditions, and codes of conduct that exist in societies for centuries. The paper finds that social institutions are the most important single factor determining women’s participation in economic activities outside the household. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: This paper provides an overview of how different approaches to improving public sector management relate to the so-called core or essential public health functions such as disease surveillance, health education, monitoring and evaluation, workforce development, enforcement of public health laws and regulations, public health research, and health policy development. Using the principles of agency theory, the paper summarizes key themes in the public management literature and draws lessons for their application to these core functions, especially in low- and middle-income countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The role of equity markets in economic development has been increasingly recognized in recent years. Yet few studies have analyzed the transmission mechanisms between them. This paper looks at this missing agenda by indirectly assessing whether the equity markets fulfill the following roles: (a) financing firms'' investment; (b) improving firms'' corporate governance and, hence, performance; and (c) signaling information regarding issuers to public investors through stock prices––all of which are essential in achieving economic growth for developing countries. This paper assesses the development stages of China''s equity markets by testing whether the above three roles are fulfilled. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study examines how macro factors influence the use of antidumping in developed and developing countries. A panel data analysis of 99 countries over 1980–2000 reinforces the view that the primary jurisdiction for the antidumping law is really more political than economic. Furthermore, it suggests that once the WTO is fully enforced, the use of antidumping will spread among developing countries not only due to greater liberalization pressures but also as many countries would like to create an antidumping ability so as to counter its use against them. This may reverse the trade gains that liberalization may ensure to them. This paper thus calls for the granting of the special and differential treatment to developing countries in this provision. Finally, based on its findings, the paper argues that future negotiations should be directed toward revising safeguard rules and replacing antidumping by this new clause. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper analyzes rights-based and economic approaches to the provision of health care and education in developing countries. It assesses the foundations and uses of social rights in development, outlines the economic approach to health care and education, highlights differences and similarities, and assesses the hard questions that the economic critique poses for rights. The paper argues that the policy consequences of the approaches overlap considerably. Differences include the consequences of long-term deprivation, metrics for tradeoffs, and the behavioral distortions of subsidies. But the differences are not irreconcilable, and advocates of the approaches need not regard each other as antagonists. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]