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Determining the minimum supercooling temperature (Tsc) of unsaturated saline soils is the key scientific problem in cold‐region agricultural and engineering, and theoretical models with good predictability are urgently needed. This study establishes a framework for pore solution freezing nucleation in unsaturated saline soils, the chemical potential energy balance equation was established by determining phase transition driving force and potential energy barrier for the formation of stable crystal embryos. Finally, the physical model was constructed. By citing 46 sets of data from different researchers, the validity of the prediction results of this paper's model under different soil types and cooling rates is demonstrated, and the microscopic mechanism of supercooling occurring in the pore solution of positive permafrost is elucidated. The analysis found that electrolyte action restricts the free diffusion of molecules and promotes nucleation to occur, so that a maximum value of Tsc exists during the growth of salinity (in NaCl saline soils occurs at a solution concentration of 0.26 mol/L). Too fast cooling rate will lead to a lag in crystallization time and an increase in supercooling. The combined water content determines the Tsc when rc < 1 μm (pore size), and the effect of changes in water content and cooling rate on supercooling is more significant in small pores; the electrolyte concentration determines the Tsc when rc > 1 μm, Tsc‐max from concentration changes will be more significant in large pores. This study can provide theoretical reserves for controlling the freezing process of soils, studying the mechanism of freezing‐thawing hysteresis, and improving the related numerical calculation models. Plain Language Summary: Permafrost and seasonal permafrost cover more than 50% of land area in the world. The engineering problems caused by freezing‐thawing cycles seriously affect engineering safety and people's well‐being in many countries. Therefore, an in‐depth study of the soil freezing‐thawing cycle is necessary. The water in the soil pore space remains sometimes in liquid state when it is below the freezing temperature. This phenomenon is usually referred to as supercooling. There is still a lack of quantitative studies on the minimum temperature that can be reached by this phenomenon. In this paper, a model that can reasonably predict the minimum subcooling temperature of soil is developed based on thermodynamic methods. The model is verified to be of good accuracy by means of measured data from different researchers. Subsequently, the supercooling characteristics of the soil are discussed based on the model and the microscopic mechanism of the gradual development of freezing in the supercooling state is described. This study will help to recognize and control the soil freezing process in engineering and agricultural construction, and serve to protect engineering structures. Key Points: A physical model is proposed to quantify the supercooling degree of unsaturated saline soilsA maximum value of soil minimum supercooling temperature will occur with increasing salt concentrationToo fast cooling rate will lead to a lag in crystallization time and an increase in supercooling [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infrastructure deterioration threatens urban water security and the pursuit of Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6, "water for all"). One billion urban residents worldwide already face intermittent piped water access, making their public water supply unreliable and unequal. Thus, effective investments in water infrastructure improvements are critical. In a recent WRR paper, Jeuland et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR033897) evaluate the impacts of a large infrastructure improvement project on various water security metrics and assess the challenges of such an investigation. They apply a rigorous difference‐in‐difference approach to data from a US$275 million investment in upgrades to water supply and sewage networks in the Zarqa governorate in arid Jordan, analyzing its effects on households, businesses, farms, and the water utility. The authors find a range of moderate improvements to water access and re‐use metrics, including a significant reduction in reported shortages. Key water security indicators related to access intermittency, however, such as the supply duration per day and the expenditure on water deliveries by tanker trucks, saw little to no improvement. The findings reveal that the efforts required to overcome the insecurity and inequity of intermittent public water supply systems might be considerably larger than expected. This suggests an urgent need to further enhance both the accuracy of impact evaluation methods and the effectiveness of infrastructure investments to support the pursuit of SDG 6. Plain Language Summary: One billion people in cities worldwide experience frequent interruptions in their tap water supply. Improving unreliable and inefficient public water supply networks is critical to cope with growing water scarcity. How do we know if these improvements are effective? A recent WRR paper by Jeuland et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR033897) reveals how difficult it is to determine this. This commentary discusses what their findings mean for efforts to make public water supply reliable and equitable. The authors are only able to confirm moderate benefits for a large‐scale water infrastructure investment. This suggests that the challenge to achieve secure water supply for all is greater than expected. Key Points: This commentary discusses the findings of an impact evaluation study for a large‐scale investment in water infrastructure improvementsThe study finds only limited impacts of the investment regarding public water supply intermittency despite a suitable setting and approachThe study's findings suggest that overcoming public water supply intermittency poses an unexpectedly large challenge [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The clarification of freezing in a soil‐water system is critical for assessing the formation of a freezing zone and liquid water flow. The supercooling phenomenon of soil pore solutions has been found during the freezing process, but the mechanism remains poorly understood. In this study, we propose a free energy function of soil‐water systems based on the Classical Nucleation Theory. The analytical solution of the critical nucleation problem of saline soil‐water system is obtained by combining the initial freezing temperature model and Pitzer activity coefficients model in electrolyte solutions. Then, the freezing‐thawing experiments of saline soil with various salt contents were conducted for verifying the analytical solution. The derived boundary nucleation rate is the quantitative solution of the critical condition for the supercooling. The findings suggested that the theory results agreed well with the experiment results. For the salt‐free soil‐water system, the critical maximum radius of supercooling was 7.15 nm. We compared eight classical ice‐water interfacial tension models, and the "Reinhardt & Doye" and "DeMott & Rogers" models showed excellent performance when using the new free energy theoretical framework to predict the crystallization nucleation rate of soil‐water systems. A positive correlation between the boundary nucleation rate and soil‐water potential is detected. According to the influencing factors, the boundary nucleation rate of soil‐water system can be divided into three zones: salt nature control zone (R > 100 μm), salt‐pore mixed control zone (100 μm > R > 100 nm), and pore size control zone (R < 100 nm). Plain Language Summary: Unfrozen water refers to the soil moisture that still exists in the form of liquid water in the soil at negative temperatures, which is critical for determining the material properties of frozen soil. The phenomenon of soil water not being able to freeze as soon as the temperature falls below the freezing temperature is referred to as "supercooling." However, the critical condition of supercooling is still unclear. In this paper, we developed a nucleation model that can be applied to saline soils based on the thermodynamic approach. Subsequently, the critical conditions were verified by freezing‐thawing tests of soil samples with different salt contents. We further optimized the model of this paper by selecting the best model for the intermediate variables. Quantitative relationships between the initiation condition of supercooling and soil properties were established. We also delineated pore size intervals for distinguishing differences in supercooling properties at different pore sizes. The proposed theoretical framework is developed from Classical Nucleation Theory, which may provide a theoretical reference for revealing the freezing‐thawing mechanism of soil‐water systems. Key Points: There is supercooling in the freezing process and not supercooling‐jump phenomenon in the melting processThe boundary nucleation rate is proportional to the soil water potentialThere exists a critical pore size for the non‐saline soil where supercooling‐jump occurs, and the value is at the 10 nm level (7.15 nm) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the considerable social and economic benefits of hydropower dams, they can cause total dissolved gas (TDG) supersaturation downstream of hydropower dams, which can harm fish through gas bubble trauma (GBT) and cause issues with aquatic ecology. This paper systematically reviewed the generation and release mechanism of TDG supersaturation, including three stages of TDG generation and release, to broaden the research ideas of TDG supersaturation and encourage the construction of environmentally friendly dams and other hydropower projects. The factors affecting the generation and release were summarized from the three stages of TDG generation and release, including temperature, momentum difference at the water‐air interface, and effective depth of bubble arrival. The research methods were introduced from four aspects: theoretical methods, field observations, experiments, and numerical simulations. The advantages, disadvantages, and application scopes of different research methods were outlined. Finally, the abatement measures in the three stages of TDG generation and release were introduced from the engineering and non‐engineering perspectives, and the future research directions were pointed out from the four aspects of TDG supersaturation generation and release mechanism, research methods, abatement measures, and management methods, including in‐depth study of whether gas‐liquid transfer through bubble surfaces or free surfaces dominates, consideration of bubble coalescence and rupture to improve the accuracy of numerical methods in TDG supersaturation prediction, the combination of engineering and non‐engineering measures to optimize TDG supersaturation abatement measures and consideration of artificial intelligence technology to improve hydropower project management methods. Plain Language Summary: Generally, the dissolved amount of total dissolved gas (TDG) in water and that in the atmosphere is in balance, and the state at this time is called the phase equilibrium state. When the dissolved gas concentration in water is higher than the equilibrium concentration, TDG supersaturation will occur. TDG supersaturation often occurs in dam flood discharge, and its adverse effect is to harm fish through gas bubble trauma and cause issues with aquatic ecology. This paper systematically reviewed the generation and release mechanism of TDG supersaturation, including three stages of TDG generation and release, to broaden the research ideas of TDG supersaturation and encourage the construction of environmentally friendly dams and other hydropower projects. Key Points: The review covers the generation and release mechanism and abatement measures for total dissolved gas (TDG) supersaturationSummarize the factors affecting TDG supersaturationThe advantages, disadvantages, and application scopes of different research methods are highlighted [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensemble climatological forecasts play a critical part in benchmarking the predictive performance of hydroclimatic forecasts. Accounting for the skewness and censoring characteristics of hydroclimatic variables, ensemble climatological forecasts can be generated by the log, Box‐Cox and log‐sinh transformations, by the combinations of the Bernoulli distribution with the Gaussian, Gamma, log‐normal, generalized extreme value, generalized logistic and Pearson type III distributions and by the non‐parametric resampling, empirical cumulative distribution function and kernel density estimation methods. This paper is concentrated on the reliability of the 12 types of ensemble climatological forecasts. Specifically, mathematical formulations are presented and large‐sample tests are devised to verify the forecast reliability for the Multi‐Source Weighted‐Ensemble Precipitation version 2 across the globe. Climatological forecasts of monthly precipitation over 18,425 grid cells are generated for 30 years under leave‐one‐year‐out cross validation, leading to 6,633,000 (12 × 18425 × 30) sets of ensemble climatological forecasts. The results point out that the reliability of climatological forecasts considerably varies across the 12 methods, particularly in regions with high hydroclimatic variability. One observation is that climatological forecasts tend to deviate from the distributions of observations when there is inadequate flexibility to fit precipitation data. Another observation is that ensemble spreads can be overly wide when there exist overfits of sample‐specific noises in cross validation. Through the tests of global precipitation, the robustness of the log‐sinh transformation and the Bernoulli‐Gamma distribution is highlighted. Overall, the investigations can serve as a guidance on the uses of transformations, distributions and non‐parametric methods in generating climatological forecasts. Plain Language Summary: Ensemble climatological forecasts have been extensively used as the benchmark to evaluate forecast skill. That is, forecasts generated by a certain forecasting model are skillful when they outperform climatological forecasts and otherwise they are not. In practice, ensemble climatological forecasts are generated by different methods, including the log, Box‐Cox and log‐sinh transformations, the combinations of the Bernoulli distribution with the Gaussian, Gamma, log‐normal, generalized extreme value, generalized logistic and Pearson type III distributions and the non‐parametric resampling, empirical cumulative distribution function and kernel density estimation methods. It is important to investigate pros and cons of different types of climatological forecasts. Focusing on the reliability, that is, statistical consistency between forecasts and observations, this paper has devised large‐sample tests of global monthly precipitation. The results show that owing to hydroclimatic variability, different types of climatological forecasts exhibit varying characteristics of reliability. On the one hand, climatological forecasts can deviate from observations when there is inadequate flexibility to fit precipitation data, especially for the Bernoulli‐Gaussian distribution. On the other hand, ensemble spreads can be too wide when there exist overfits of sample‐specific noises in cross validation. Among the 12 methods, the robustness of the log‐sinh transformation and the Bernoulli‐Gamma distribution is highlighted. Key Points: Climatological forecasts can be generated by using data transformations, statistical distributions and non‐parametric methodsThe reliability of climatological forecasts generated by different methods is shown to vary considerably in large‐sample testsThe robustness of log‐sinh transformation and Bernoulli‐Gamma distribution is illustrated through the tests of global precipitation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]