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The NASA LIS/WRF‐Hydro system is a coupled modeling framework that combines the modeling and data assimilation (DA) capabilities of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) with the multi‐scale surface hydrological modeling capabilities of the WRF‐Hydro model, both of which are widely used in both operations and research. This coupled modeling framework builds on the linkage between land surface models (LSMs), which simulate surface boundary conditions in atmospheric models, and distributed hydrologic models, which simulate horizontal surface and sub‐surface flow, adding new land DA capabilities. In the present study, we employ this modeling framework in the Tuolumne River basin in central California. We demonstrate the added value of the assimilation of NASA Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates in the Tuolumne basin. This analysis is performed in both LIS as an LSM column model and LIS/WRF‐Hydro, with hydrologic routing. Results demonstrate that ASO DA in the basin reduced snow bias by as much as 30% from an open‐loop (OL) simulation compared to three independent datasets. It also reduces downstream streamflow runoff biases by as much as 40%, and improves streamflow skill scores in both wet and dry years. Analysis of soil moisture and evapotranspiration (ET) also reveals the impacts of hydrologic routing from WRF‐Hydro in the simulations, which would otherwise not be resolved in an LSM column model. By demonstrating the beneficial impact of SWE DA on the improving streamflow forecasts, the article outlines the importance of such observational inputs for reservoir operations and related water management applications. Plain Language Summary: Land surface models are useful because of their ability to resolve surface‐atmosphere feedbacks, including those with vegetation. Land surface models also have the capability to assimilate surface observations, usually measured through remote sensing techniques, into the model. Hydrologic models have the strength of resolving horizontal movements of water both on the surface and through the sub‐surface. In the present study, we combine the data‐assimilation capabilities of the NASA‐LIS land surface model with the WRF‐Hydro hydrologic model to combine the utility of both systems. We use this new system to demonstrate the impact of assimilating snow water equivalent, measured from an aircraft, on both the land surface and streamflow from the model in the Tuolumne River basin in Central California. Results show that assimilation of snow water equivalent into the coupled model corrects snow errors and improves the streamflow in both wet and dry years. We find that hydrologic processes that are now added to the land surface model impact simulated soil moisture and evapotranspiration. These findings are important because the ability for a model to better resolve streamflow, from snow assimilation, could be beneficial for water management. Key Points: Snow water equivalent data‐assimilation improves hydrologic response in the coupled LIS/WRF‐Hydro model for a case study in the Tuolumne River basinHorizontal surface routing increases soil moisture and evapotranspiration downstream near channels in LIS/WRF‐Hydro, compared to an LSM‐only simulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation is a key input variable in distributed surface water‐groundwater models, and its spatial variability is expected to impact watershed hydrologic response via changes in subsurface flow dynamics. Gridded precipitation data sets based on gauge observations, however, are plagued by uncertainty, especially in mountainous terrain where gauge networks are sparse. To examine the mechanisms via which uncertainty in precipitation data propagates through a watershed, we perform a series of numerical experiments using an integrated surface water‐groundwater hydrologic model, ParFlow.CLM. The Kaweah River watershed in California, USA, is used as our virtual catchment laboratory to characterize watershed response to variable precipitation forcing from headwaters to groundwaters. By applying the three‐cornered hat method, we quantify the spatially distributed uncertainty in four publically available precipitation forcing data sets and their simulated hydrology. Simulations demonstrate that uncertainty in the simulated groundwater storage is primarily a result of topographic redistribution of uncertainty in precipitation forcing. Soil water redistribution is the primary pathway that redistributes uncertainty downslope. We also find that topography exerts a larger impact than variable subsurface parameters on propagating uncertainty in simulated fluxes. Finally, we find that improvement in model performance metrics is higher for a single simulation forced with the mean precipitation from the available data sets than the averaged simulated results of separate simulations forced with each data set. Results from this study highlight the importance of topography‐moderated flow through the critical zone in shaping the groundwater response to climate variability. Key Points: Uncertainty in simulated groundwater storage change is a result of topographic redistribution of uncertainty in precipitation forcingSubsurface flow pathways in both soil and deeper bedrock control watershed response to variable precipitation inputMerging multiple precipitation data sets provides better results than merging simulated fluxes, due to high model sensitivity to changes in precipitation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatiotemporal dynamics of plant water sources are hidden and poorly understood. We document water source use of Quercus garryana growing in Northern California on a profile of approximately 50 cm of soil underlain by 2–4 m of weathered bedrock (sheared shale mélange) that completely saturates in winter, when the oaks lack leaves, and progressively dries over the summer. We determined oak water sources by combining observations of water stable isotope composition, vadose zone moisture and groundwater dynamics, and metrics of tree water status (potential) and use (sapflow). During the spring, oak xylem water is isotopically similar to the seasonal groundwater and shallow, evaporatively enriched soil moisture pools. However, as soils dry and the water table recedes to the permanently saturated, anoxic, low‐conductivity fresh bedrock boundary, Q. garryana shifts to using a water source with a depleted isotopic composition that matches residual moisture in the deep soil and underlying weathered bedrock vadose zone. Sapflow rates remain high as late‐summer predawn water potentials drop below −2.5 MPa. Neutron probe surveys reveal late‐summer rock moisture declines under the oaks in contrast to constant rock moisture levels under grass‐dominated areas. We therefore conclude that the oaks temporarily use seasonal groundwater when it occupies the weathered profile but otherwise use deep unsaturated zone moisture after seasonal groundwater recedes. The ample moisture, connected porosity, and oxygenated conditions of the weathered bedrock vadose zone make it a key tree water resource during the long summer dry season of the local Mediterranean climate. Plain Language Summary: What are the water sources that allow oaks to transpire through extended dry periods? Oaks in California are thought to tap into groundwater to meet dry season water demand. Here, we show that oaks growing in a savanna woodland instead use tightly held moisture within deep soil and weathered bedrock above the saturated zone. We determined this by matching stable isotopes in the trees' water to these moisture pools. Deep soil and rock moisture were isotopically lighter than shallow soil moisture, which was affected by evaporative enrichment, and the groundwater, which looked more like average wet season rainfall. Monitored moisture declines within the weathered bedrock corroborate the isotopic interpretation that rock moisture sustained oak transpiration. Although the saturated zone was only a few meters below the ground surface in late summer, the trees did not use it due to its low oxygen content and residence in low permeability fresh bedrock. Our findings matter to forest management because of the need to determine when and where trees use groundwater, which regulates ecologically critical baseflow. Moisture extraction from the weathered bedrock unsaturated zone is likely important globally, as forests are widespread on hillslopes with thin soils overlying weathered bedrock. Key Points: Isotopic, physiologic, and hydrologic observations were combined to identify oak water sourcesRock and deep soil moisture rather than groundwater sustain transpiration in summer dry seasonDeep unsaturated zone moisture sources and oak water were isotopically depleted [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]