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Water resources are crucial for the development of ecosystems and humanity. The Yellow River Basin (YRB), as an important ecological area in China, is facing significant challenges in ecological protection and high-quality development due to global climate change and intense human activities. In order to alleviate the water resources crisis in the YRB, it is necessary to calculate the resilience of the water resources system and identify the main influencing factors. This paper considered the factors of water resources, social economy, and ecological environment, then constructed an evaluation framework of the water resources system resilience (WRSR) from three aspects: resistance, restoration, and adaptability. Taking nine provinces along the YRB as a case study, the WRSR was measured by using the entropy weight TOPSIS model, and its driving factors were analyzed with Geographical Detectors (GD). The results showed that: (1) From 2010 to 2022, the WRSR in the Yellow River Basin and various provinces was showing a fluctuating increasing trend, in which Ningxia had the highest average WRSR (0.646), while Shanxi had the lowest (0.168). (2) From three dimensions, the development trends of resistance, restoration, and adaptability in the YRB and various provinces from 2010 to 2022 were relatively stable. Shandong’s resistance level far exceeded that of other provinces, having the highest average resistance value (0.692), and Ningxia had the highest average value of restoration (0.827) and adaptability (0.711). However, Gansu had the lowest average value of resistance (0.119), Sichuan had the lowest average value of restoration (0.097), and Shandong had the lowest average value of adaptability (0.110). (3) In terms of impact factors, the development and utilization rate of water resources (C13) and the development and utilization rate of surface water resources (C14) in the restoration subsystem consistently ranked in the top two of influencing factors. Similarly, the water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP (C26) in the adaptability subsystem consistently ranked within the top ten. On the other hand, the natural population growth rate (C6) in the resistance subsystem, as well as the impact of ammonia nitrogen emissions (C9) and total precipitation (C2) in wastewater, exhibited an upward trend. Based on these, this paper provides relevant suggestions for improving the WRSR in the YRB.

Reservoir operation optimization is a technical measure for flood control and is beneficial owing to its reasonable and reliable control and application of existing water conservancy and hydropower hubs, while ensuring dam safety and flood control, as well as the normal operation of power supply and water supply. Considering the beneficial functions of reservoirs, namely flood control and ecological protection, this paper firstly established a two-objective optimal operation model for the reservoir group in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. We aim to maximize the average output of the cascade reservoir group and minimize the average change in ecological flow during the operation period under efficient sediment transport conditions, with the coordination degree of water and sediment as the constraints of reservoir discharge flows. The paper aims to construct an evaluation index system for reservoir operation schemes, apply a combined approach of objective and subjective evaluations, and introduce the gray target and cumulative prospect theories. By uniformly quantifying the established scheme evaluation index system, screening the reservoir operation schemes with the fuzzy evaluation method, and selecting the recommended scheme for each typical year, this paper provides a new scientific formulation of the operation schemes of reservoirs in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The selected schemes are compared with actual data, demonstrating the effectiveness of joint reservoir operation and for multidimensional benefits in terms of power generation, ecology, and flood control.

It has been difficult to revise and adjust the water distribution of the Yellow River in 1987 (1987 water distribution scheme). By gathering data and studies from previous literature, this paper summarized some water distribution ideas, principles and rules in transboundary rivers. We proposed the “synthesis–dynamic–harmonious” water distribution method (SDH), and applied it to the actual conditions of the Yellow River basin. Through the SDH method, we calculated a new scheme for water distribution in the Yellow River and analyzed the results. The key findings of this study are summarized below. Firstly, the water distribution of transboundary rivers required the establishment of advanced water distribution ideas. Secondly, the proposed water distribution method took into account a variety of factors: with the change in distributable water volume, the same ratio changes and meets the minimum water demand and water efficiency constraints. Thirdly, the 1987, the water distribution scheme needed some adjustment. Fourthly, under the new Yellow River basin water distribution scheme (“19ZQT” water distribution scheme), Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Henan account for 50% of the total water distribution. Sichuan accounts for only 0.3% of the total. Compared with the 1987 water distribution scheme, Hebei and Tianjin reduced the amount of water allocated by 51.2%, while Shaanxi increased it by 24.89%. In this paper, considering the changes in the total distributable water volume, the new Yellow River water distribution scheme (“19ZQT” water distribution scheme) assumed water distribution of 37 billion m3 and 30 billion m3, upon which calculations were performed. This study should provide a scientific and reasonable scheme for water distribution of transboundary rivers, and rational utilization of water resources. It should lay a solid foundation for the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.

The uneven distribution of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) continuous stations in the Yellow River Basin, combined with the sparse distribution of GNSS continuous stations in some regions and the weak far-field load signals, poses challenges in using GNSS vertical displacement data to invert terrestrial water storage changes (TWSCs). To achieve the inversion of water reserves in the Yellow River Basin using unevenly distributed GNSS continuous station data, in this study, we employed the Tikhonov regularization method to invert the terrestrial water storage (TWS) in the Yellow River Basin using vertical displacement data from network engineering and the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) GNSS continuous stations from 2011 to 2022. In addition, we applied an inverse distance weighting smoothing factor, which was designed to account for the GNSS station distribution density, to smooth the inversion results. Consequently, a gridded product of the TWS in the Yellow River Basin with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees on a daily scale was obtained. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a correlation analysis was conducted between the inversion results and the daily TWS from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), yielding a correlation coefficient of 0.68, indicating a strong correlation, which verifies the effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper. Based on the inversion results, we analyzed the spatial–temporal distribution trends and patterns in the Yellow River Basin and found that the average TWS decreased at a rate of 0.027 mm/d from 2011 to 2017, and then increased at a rate of 0.010 mm/d from 2017 to 2022. The TWS decreased from the lower-middle to lower reaches, while it increased from the upper-middle to upper reaches. Furthermore, an attribution analysis of the terrestrial water storage changes in the Yellow River Basin was conducted, and the correlation coefficients between the monthly average water storage changes inverted from the results and the monthly average precipitation, evapotranspiration, and surface temperature (AvgSurfT) from the GLDAS were 0.63, −0.65, and −0.69, respectively. This indicates that precipitation, evapotranspiration, and surface temperature were significant factors affecting the TWSCs in the Yellow River Basin.

The Yellow River, a critical water resource, faces challenges stemming from increasing water demand, which has led to detrimental effects on hydropower generation and ecological balance. This paper will address the complex task of balancing the interests of hydropower generation, water supply, and ecology within the context of cascade reservoirs, specifically Longyangxia and Liujiaxia reservoirs. Employing a systemic coupling coordination approach, we constructed a multi-objective synergetic model of the upper Yellow River in order to explore synergies and competitions among multiple objectives. The results reveal that there is a weak competitive relationship between hydropower generation and water supply, a strong synergy between hydropower generation and ecology, and a strong competitive relationship between water supply and ecology. The Pareto solution set analysis indicates a considerable percentage (59%, 20%, and 8% in wet, normal, and dry years, respectively) exhibiting excellent coordination. The probability of excellent coordination decreases with diminishing inflow. The optimization scheme with the highest coupling coordination demonstrates significant improvements in power generation, water supply, and ecological benefits in the upper Yellow River without compromising other objectives, fostering the sustainable operation of hydropower generation, water supply, and ecology in the upper Yellow River.

Water market development in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) unfolds new opportunities for alleviating water scarcity and improving water productivity. However, the further development of an effective water market in the basin faces challenges such as unclear water rights, regulatory deficiencies, market deficiencies, and insufficient compensation to third-parties, among others. Studying water market development in Western countries provides useful insights for addressing similar challenges, thus providing useful case studies despite the different cultural, economic, institutional, and political settings. This paper investigates water markets in the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia, the western United States, and Chile to synthesize cases of water market development that could potentially contribute to overcoming the challenges encountered in the YRB. After analyzing these cases, recommendations are made for enhancing the YRB’s water market development from the perspectives of water rights systems, as well as the roles of the government and market, legal system, and third-party effects.

Understanding the factors affecting irrigation management performance is crucial for sustainable resource use, especially with the decentralized management mode of irrigation systems being implemented in rural China. This paper contributes to the research field by incorporating different categories of social trust and perceived organization support (POS) into the analysis of irrigation management performance, by linking multiple elements that are based on the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework. We employed principal component analysis (PCA) and ordered probit regression to analyze a database covering 785 households in the upstream of the Yellow River basin. The results suggested that social trust and POS positively affected the irrigation management performance, and social trust strengthened the positive effect of POS on the performance. Furthermore, the results indicated that personal trust and institutional trust, as well as perceived emotional support and physical support, positively affected the performance. In addition, we also found that household characteristics, household cognition, group characteristics, physical conditions, and rules-in-use also had significant impact on the performance. This paper can be used to inform the government that social trust and POS need to be considered in the common-pool resources (CPRs) management.

Establishment of a watershed ecological compensation mechanism between multiple subjects is an effective means to realize the collaborative governance of water pollution and maintain the security of water ecology. This paper breaks through the conventional upstream and downstream perspectives of watershed ecological compensation design research and combines them with uncertainty factors. The watershed ecological compensation mechanism for the mainstream and branches was established based on the evolutionary game and the random process. Then, taking the midstream of the Yellow River as an example, some constraint conditions and influencing factors were explored. Results show that: (1) The branch government (i.e., the Shanxi provincial government) is the key to establishing an ecological compensation mechanism between the river mainstream and branches. (2) The proportion of pollution transferred by other branches, the initial probability and the random factors are the main factors affecting the decision-making of branch governments (Shanxi and Shaanxi provincial governments). (3) The compensation and reward of the mainstream government to the branch government and the compensation of the branch government to the mainstream government are the main factors affecting the decision-making of mainstream and branch governments (Shanxi–Henan provincial governments, Shaanxi–Henan provincial governments). The study may provide scientific guidance for the construction of a watershed ecological compensation mechanism between mainstream and multiple branches.

Based on a detailed analysis of the impact mechanism of industrial restructuring on carbon dioxide emissions in the Yellow River Basin, this paper first calculated the carbon dioxide emission data of 57 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2009 to 2019 and constructed indicators from two dimensions: the advancement and the rationalization of the industrial structure. Then, the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model was used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of industrial structure adjustments on carbon dioxide emissions in the Yellow River Basin. Consequently, changing carbon dioxide emission trends in the Yellow River Basin under various scenarios were predicted. The research observed the following: (1) the eastern part of the Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration and the Energy Golden Triangle have higher carbon dioxide emissions; (2) the advancement of industrial structures in the Yellow River Basin has a better emission reduction effect than the rationalization of industrial structures; (3) increased foreign investment will lead to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in the Yellow River Basin, and a “Pollution Refuge Effect” will emerge; (4) accelerated industrial transformations and upgrades, high-quality economic development, and a moderate population growth rate are consistent with future development trends.

Understanding the response of vegetation to drought is of great significance to the biodiversity protection of terrestrial ecosystem. Based on the MOD13A2 NDVI, GOSIF, and SPEI data of the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2020, this paper used the methods of Theil–Sen median trend analysis, Mann–Kendall significance test, and Pearson correlation analysis to analyze whether the vegetation change trends monitored by MODIS and GOSIF are consistent and their sensitivity to meteorological drought. The results showed that NDVI and SIF increased significantly (p < 0.001) at the rate of 0.496 × 10−2 and 0.345 × 10−2, respectively. The significant improvement area of SIF (66.49%, p < 0.05) is higher than NDVI (50.7%, p < 0.05), and the spatial distribution trend of vegetation growth monitored by NDVI and SIF is consistent. The negative value of SPEI-12 accounts for 65.83%, with obvious periodic changes. The significant positive correlation areas of SIF-SPEI in spring, summer, and autumn (R > 0, p < 0.05) were 7.00%, 28.49%, and 2.28% respectively, which were higher than the significant positive correlation areas of NDVI-SPEI (spring: 1.79%; summer: 20.72%; autumn: 1.13%). SIF responded more strongly to SPEI in summer, and farmland SIF was significantly correlated with SPEI (0.3424, p < 0.01). The results indicate that SIF is more responsive to drought than NDVI. Analyzing the response of vegetation to meteorological drought can provide constructive reference for ecological protection.

In order to promote the sustainable development of a social economy and ecology, the social–economic–natural compound ecosystem (SENCE) conceptual framework was used to construct the water environmental carrying capacity index system. Taking the Gansu section of the Yellow River basin as an example, 18 indexes were selected from the 3 subsystems of social, economic, and natural ecology. Based on the unascertained measure theory and the obstacle factor model, the comprehensive level of water environmental carrying capacity in the Gansu section of the Yellow River basin from 2015 to 2020 was empirically evaluated, and the obstacles that hindered the water environmental carrying capacity were identified and analyzed. The results showed that the comprehensive level of water environmental carrying capacity fluctuated and increased overall, and it was grade III (critical load) from 2015 to 2017 and in 2019 and grade IV (weak load) in 2018 and 2020. Considering the ranking of the obstacle degree of each index, the obstacle factors were concentrated in the natural ecological subsystem, among which the obstacle factors were the discharge of wastewater, the population density, the urbanization rate, and the water resources development and utilization rate, which should be examined in the future. The research results and methods described in this paper could provide a theoretical reference for the evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity for other rivers and lakes.

As one of the national strategies of China, the ecological protection of the Yellow River basin (YRB) is vital for the promotion of the high-quality development (HQD) of the regional economy. This paper uses the data of prefecture-level cities in the YRB from 2004–2019 to analyze the effect of environmental regulation and local government competition on HQD. The findings show the following: (1) Environmental regulation can significantly promote HQD in the YRB, and local government competition can significantly reduce HQD. The interaction effect shows that the promotion effect of environmental regulation on HQD weakens with the intensification of competition between local governments. (2) A heterogeneity analysis shows that environmental regulation has a more significant positive impact on HQD for the lower reaches of the YRB. (3) Using a threshold effect test, it is found that the impact of environmental regulation on the HQD presents a significant nonlinear positive effect with an increase in local government competition. When the local government competition represented by the level of economic catch-up exceeds the threshold value of 3.037, this positive effect decreases significantly.

Given the substantial impacts that are expected due to climate change, it is crucial that accurate rainfall–runoff results are provided for various decision-making purposes. However, these modeling results often generate uncertainty or bias due to the imperfect character of individual models. In this paper, a genetic algorithm together with a Bayesian model averaging method are employed to provide a multi-model ensemble (MME) and combined runoff prediction under climate change scenarios produced from eight rainfall–runoff models for the Yellow River Basin. The results show that the multi-model ensemble method, especially the genetic algorithm method, can produce more reliable predictions than the other considered rainfall–runoff models. These results show that it is possible to reduce the uncertainty and thus improve the accuracy for future projections using different models because an MME approach evens out the bias involved in the individual model. For the study area, the final combined predictions reveal that less runoff is expected under most climatic scenarios, which will threaten water security of the basin.