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Abstract In October 2019, South Korea’s first case of African swine fever (ASF) was reported in wild boar in the north of the country. Despite the implementation of a 2300 km-long fencing strategy, the ASF wavefront continued to invade southward. Our study aimed to investigate the ASF wavefront dynamics in different regions of South Korea, as well as to assess the effectiveness of the fencing measures on ASF dispersal and wavefront velocity. From the nationwide wild boar surveillance system, we extracted 2661 cases, starting from 2 October 2019 (first detection) to 15 September 2022. The cases were categorised into four main spatiotemporal clusters. The average wavefront velocity over the four clusters was estimated at 0.52 km/week, with the cluster in the eastern part of the Korean peninsula exhibiting the fastest velocity (0.99 km/week) compared to the other clusters (0.44, 0.31, and 0.15 km/week). We hypothesise that these differences are related to different wild boar densities due to heterogeneous habitat suitability. We also found that fencing significantly impacted ASF dispersal in only two of the four main clusters, with no evidence that fencing slowed down the spread of the wavefront in any of the clusters. We argue that this heterogeneity might result from fencing locations being misaligned with the true (and unobserved) wavefront.

Abstract The global spread of avian influenza A viruses in domestic birds is causing increasing socioeconomic devastation. Various mechanistic models have been developed to better understand avian influenza transmission and evaluate the effectiveness of control measures in mitigating the socioeconomic losses caused by these viruses. However, the results of models of avian influenza transmission and control have not yet been subject to a comprehensive review. Such a review could help inform policy makers and guide future modeling work. To help fill this gap, we conducted a systematic review of the mechanistic models that have been applied to field outbreaks. Our three objectives were to: (1) describe the type of models and their epidemiological context, (2) list estimates of commonly used parameters of low pathogenicity and highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission, and (3) review the characteristics of avian influenza transmission and the efficacy of control strategies according to the mechanistic models. We reviewed a total of 46 articles. Of these, 26 articles estimated parameters by fitting the model to data, one evaluated the effectiveness of control strategies, and 19 did both. Values of the between-individual reproduction number ranged widely: from 2.18 to 86 for highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, and from 4.7 to 45.9 for low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses, depending on epidemiological settings, virus subtypes and host species. Other parameters, such as the durations of the latent and infectious periods, were often taken from the literature, limiting the models’ potential insights. Concerning control strategies, many models evaluated culling (n = 15), while vaccination received less attention (n = 6). According to the articles reviewed, optimal control strategies varied between virus subtypes and local conditions, and depended on the overall objective of the intervention. For instance, vaccination was optimal when the objective was to limit the overall number of culled flocks. In contrast, pre-emptive culling was preferred for reducing the size and duration of an epidemic. Early implementation consistently improved the overall efficacy of interventions, highlighting the need for effective surveillance and epidemic preparedness.

Abstract We analysed the interplay between palmiped farm density and the vulnerability of the poultry production system to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8. To do so, we used a spatially-explicit transmission model, which was calibrated to reproduce the observed spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks in France during the 2016–2017 epidemic of HPAI. Six scenarios were investigated, in which the density of palmiped farms was decreased in the municipalities with the highest palmiped farm density. For each of the six scenarios, we first calculated the spatial distribution of the basic reproduction number (R 0), i.e. the expected number of farms a particular farm would be likely to infect, should all other farms be susceptible. We also ran in silico simulations of the adjusted model for each scenario to estimate epidemic sizes and time-varying effective reproduction numbers. We showed that reducing palmiped farm density in the densest municipalities decreased substantially the size of the areas with high R 0 values (> 1.5). In silico simulations suggested that reducing palmiped farm density, even slightly, in the densest municipalities was expected to decrease substantially the number of affected poultry farms and therefore provide benefits to the poultry sector as a whole. However, they also suggest that it would not have been sufficient, even in combination with the intervention measures implemented during the 2016–2017 epidemic, to completely prevent the virus from spreading. Therefore, the effectiveness of alternative structural preventive approaches now needs to be assessed, including flock size reduction and targeted vaccination.

Abstract In late 2015, an epizootic of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5Nx) was registered in Southwestern France, including more than 70 outbreaks in commercial poultry flocks. Phylogenetic analyses suggested local emergence of H5 viruses which differed from A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 clade 2.3.4.4b lineage and shared a unique polybasic cleavage site in their hemagglutinin protein. The present work provides an overview of the pathobiological picture associated with this epizootic in naturally infected chickens, guinea fowls and ducks. Upon necropsy examination, selected tissues were sampled for histopathology, immunohistochemistry and quantitative Real Time Polymerase Chain Reaction. In Galliformes, HPAIVs infection manifested as severe acute systemic vasculitis and parenchymal necrosis and was associated with endothelial expression of viral antigen. In ducks, lesions were mild and infrequent, with sparse antigenic detection in respiratory and digestive mucosae and leukocytes. Tissue quantifications of viral antigen and RNA were higher in chickens and guinea fowls compared to duck. Subsequently, recombinant HA (rHA) was generated from a H5 HPAIV isolated from an infected duck to investigate its glycan-binding affinity for avian mucosae. Glycan-binding analysis revealed strong affinity of rHA for 3’Sialyl-LacNAc and low affinity for Sialyl-LewisX, consistent with a duck-adapted virus similar to A/Duck/Mongolia/54/2001 (H5N2). K222R and S227R mutations on rHA sequence shifted affinity towards Sialyl-LewisX and led to an increased affinity for chicken mucosa, confirming the involvement of these two mutations in the glycan-binding specificity of the HA. Interestingly, the rHA glycan binding pattern of guinea fowl appeared intermediate between duck and chicken. The present study presents a unique pathobiological description of the H5 HPAIVs outbreaks that occurred in 2015–2016 in Southwestern France.