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Background: Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is the most important animal health concern in Wales. Annual testing across all cattle herds in Wales commenced in 2010. In 2017, a new geographic division of Wales was conceived, with bespoke cattle controls and eradication milestones reflecting the geographical heterogeneity of bTB distribution., Methods: This observational study uses descriptive analysis and Poisson regression modelling to analyse bTB surveillance data from all herds in Wales., Results: Since 2010, there has been a significant decrease (p < 0.0001) in bTB incidence (8.6%‒6.3%) and plateauing prevalence across Wales. Conversely, there has been an increase in bTB incidence and prevalence in discrete areas. Recurrence and persistence remain important drivers of bTB infection. One of the sharpest declines in bTB incidence was observed in an intensive action area where enhanced cattle control and wildlife vaccination were implemented in an area of high bTB prevalence. Increased herd size, dairy herd type and herd location are important risk factors affecting the rate of bTB incidents in Wales., Limitations: This study includes data from Wales only., Conclusions: Improvements in trends of bTB occurred from 2010 to 2021, but the spatial variations described in this paper support the continued need for regionally adapted surveillance and control measures., (© 2024 The Author(s). Veterinary Record published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Veterinary Association.)

Background: Risk compensation theory suggests that behaviours are modified in response to interventions that remove risks by substituting them with other risky behaviours to maintain a 'risk equilibrium'. Alternatively, risk reduction interventions may result in spill-over behaviours that seek to minimise risks further. This paper assessed evidence for these behavioural risk responses among farmers in response to badger culling that seeks to remove the risk of bovine tuberculosis in cattle., Methods: Data from the UK's randomised badger culling trial were re-analysed, comparing farmers' cattle movement practices in proactive and reactive culling areas and control areas. Analysis compared cattle movements during and after the trial using zero-inflated negative binomial regression., Results: The analysis found no strong evidence of risk compensation behaviours among farmers who experienced proactive culling. However, strong evidence for a reduction in cattle movements in reactive culling areas was found. The results indicate high levels of inertia within farming systems in relation to cattle purchasing., Limitations: Data do not account for the risk of cattle purchases and reflect previous policy regimens. Evidence from recent badger culling interventions should be analysed., Conclusion: Proactive badger culling was not associated with risk compensation behaviours, while reactive badger culling was associated with decreased risk taking among farmers., (© 2024 The Authors. Veterinary Record published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Veterinary Association.)

Neil J Watt and Keith Cutler argue that Defra's aim of achieving officially bovine tuberculosis (bTB)-free status for England by 2038 is unlikely to be met without a drastic change to testing and policy., (© 2024 British Veterinary Association.)

Background: This social research study employed a behavioural insights framework, Easy, Attractive, Social, Timely ('EAST'), to identify cues that may influence farmer and stakeholder attitudes towards the deployment of CattleBCG vaccine., Methods: The EAST framework was employed to develop policy scenarios consisting of several cues likely to affect vaccine uptake. These scenarios consisted of a government-led approach, an individual farmer-led approach, and a third approach, also farmer-led but organised collectively. The government approach was mandatory, while the farmer-led approaches were both voluntary. The scenarios were tested during farmer participatory workshops (n = 8) and stakeholder interviews (n = 35)., Results: Overall, the EAST framework provided a useful approach for gathering behavioural insights around attitudes towards cattle vaccination. We found an overall receptiveness towards the idea of vaccinating cattle against bovine tuberculosis, particularly where clear, transparent messaging around the likely efficacy is mobilised, where clarity around potential implications for trading is provided, and where vaccine doses are provided free of charge and administered by veterinarians and veterinary technicians. In general, these factors were a pre-requisite to a mandatory (government-led) national approach, which was the preferred deployment mechanism among farmers and stakeholders. However, these conditions would also likely facilitate a voluntary vaccination programme., Limitations: Trust in those involved in delivering a vaccine programme and trust in the vaccine itself represent a crucial aspect of farmer and stakeholder attitudes towards cattle vaccination; however, this aspect was not covered by the EAST framework., Conclusion: EAST provided a novel framework for examining attitudes towards cattle vaccination with CattleBCG, although we recommend incorporating a 'trust' component in future iterations., (© 2023 The Authors. Veterinary Record published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Veterinary Association.)

Background: Since 2013, badger culling has been part of the UK Government's strategy for controlling bovine tuberculosis (bTB) within a high-risk area (HRA) in England. Government surveillance data now enables an examination of bTB herd incidence and prevalence, its headline indicators, within and outside cull areas over the period 2009-2020., Methods: Analysis compared herd incidence and prevalence data from within and outside badger culling areas. A range of models (GLMs, GLMMs, GAMs and GAMMs) were used to analyse incidence and prevalence in culled and unculled areas using frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Change in incidence across ten county areas within the HRA for the period 2010-2020 was also compared., Results: Analyses based on Defra published data using a variety of statistical methodologies did not suggest that badger culling affected herd bTB incidence or prevalence over the study period. In 9 of 10 counties, bTB incidence peaked and began to fall before badger culling commenced., Limitations: There are limitations around the data available on culling location, temporal information and other confounding factors. As such, further analysis of any future datasets that may be released on bTB levels in areas where badger culling has been implemented is warranted., Conclusion: This examination of government data obtained over a wide area and a long time period failed to identify a meaningful effect of badger culling on bTB in English cattle herds. These findings may have implications for the use of badger culling in current and future bTB control policy., (Veterinary Record© 2022 The Authors. Veterinary Record published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Veterinary Association.)