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Objective: Stillbirth is a potentially preventable complication of pregnancy. Identifying women at high risk of stillbirth can guide decisions on the need for closer surveillance and timing of delivery in order to prevent fetal death. Prognostic models have been developed to predict the risk of stillbirth, but none has yet been validated externally. In this study, we externally validated published prediction models for stillbirth using individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis to assess their predictive performance.Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, DH-DATA and AMED databases were searched from inception to December 2020 to identify studies reporting stillbirth prediction models. Studies that developed or updated prediction models for stillbirth for use at any time during pregnancy were included. IPD from cohorts within the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network were used to validate externally the identified prediction models whose individual variables were available in the IPD. The risk of bias of the models and cohorts was assessed using the Prediction study Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). The discriminative performance of the models was evaluated using the C-statistic, and calibration was assessed using calibration plots, calibration slope and calibration-in-the-large. Performance measures were estimated separately in each cohort, as well as summarized across cohorts using random-effects meta-analysis. Clinical utility was assessed using net benefit.Results: Seventeen studies reporting the development of 40 prognostic models for stillbirth were identified. None of the models had been previously validated externally, and the full model equation was reported for only one-fifth (20%, 8/40) of the models. External validation was possible for three of these models, using IPD from 19 cohorts (491 201 pregnant women) within the IPPIC Network database. Based on evaluation of the model development studies, all three models had an overall high risk of bias, according to PROBAST. In the IPD meta-analysis, the models had summary C-statistics ranging from 0.53 to 0.65 and summary calibration slopes ranging from 0.40 to 0.88, with risk predictions that were generally too extreme compared with the observed risks. The models had little to no clinical utility, as assessed by net benefit. However, there remained uncertainty in the performance of some models due to small available sample sizes.Conclusions: The three validated stillbirth prediction models showed generally poor and uncertain predictive performance in new data, with limited evidence to support their clinical application. The findings suggest methodological shortcomings in their development, including overfitting. Further research is needed to further validate these and other models, identify stronger prognostic factors and develop more robust prediction models. © 2021 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the predictive accuracy for stillbirth of second-trimester uterine artery Doppler.Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library databases from inception until March 2015 without language restrictions. The included studies were those that assessed the association of abnormal uterine artery Doppler parameters and stillbirth. Two independent reviewers selected the studies, extracted data and assessed quality. Results for studies that were performed in the second trimester were pooled and summary estimates of sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were obtained. An overall summary of test accuracy was provided by the diagnostic odds ratio. Subgroup analysis was performed according to whether the study population was high risk or unselected.Results: Literature searches returned 338 relevant citations with 32 considered in full. Thirteen studies met our search criteria (85 845 women, 508 stillbirths) and were included in the review. Bivariate pooled estimate for sensitivity was 65% (95% CI, 38-85%) and for specificity 82% (95% CI, 72-88%). The positive likelihood ratio was 3.5 (95% CI, 2.3-5.5) and negative likelihood ratio 0.43 (95% CI, 0.22-0.85). The diagnostic odds ratio was 8.3 (95% CI, 3.0-22.4). Heterogeneity was high in the studies of high-risk women.Conclusions: Abnormal uterine artery Doppler indices are associated with a three- to four-fold increase in the risk of stillbirth. The heterogeneity was particularly high in the high-risk group rendering it impossible to draw firm conclusions. In view of this, there is a role for individual patient data meta-analysis to define which Doppler parameter and threshold value should be measured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To determine the accuracy with which uterine artery Doppler in the first trimester of pregnancy predicts pre-eclampsia and fetal growth restriction, particularly early-onset disease. Methods: We searched MEDLINE (1951-2012), EMBASE (1980-2012) and the Cochrane Library (2012) for relevant citations without language restrictions. Two reviewers independently selected studies that evaluated the accuracy of first-trimester uterine artery Doppler to predict adverse pregnancy outcome and performed data extraction to construct 2 × 2 tables. We synthesized sensitivity and specificity for various Doppler indices using a bivariate random-effects model. Results: From 1866 citations, we identified 18 studies (55,974 women). The sensitivity and specificity of abnormal uterine artery flow velocity waveform (FVW) in the prediction of early-onset pre-eclampsia were 47.8% (95% CI: 39.0-56.8) and 92.1% (95% CI: 88.6-94.6), and in the prediction of early-onset fetal growth restriction were 39.2% (95% CI: 26.3-53.8) and 93.1% (95% CI: 90.6-95.0), respectively. The sensitivities for predicting any pre-eclampsia and fetal growth restriction were 26.4% (95% CI: 22.5-30.8) and 15.4% (95% CI: 12.4-18.9), respectively, and the specificities were 93.4% (95% CI: 90.4-95.5%) and 93.3% (95% CI: 90.9-95.1), respectively. The number needed to treat (NNT) with aspirin to prevent one case of early-onset pre-eclampsia fell from 1000 to 173 and from 2500 to 421 for background risks varying between 1% and 0.4%, respectively. Conclusions: First-trimester uterine artery Doppler is a useful tool for predicting early-onset pre-eclampsia, as well as other adverse pregnancy outcomes. Based on the NNT, abnormal uterine artery Doppler in low-risk women achieves a sufficiently high performance to justify aspirin prophylaxis in those who test positive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To evaluate the accuracy of first-trimester ultrasound examination in detecting major congenital heart disease (CHD) using a systematic review of the literature. Methods: General bibliographic and specialist computerized databases along with manual searching of reference lists of primary and review articles were used to search for relevant citations. Studies were included if a first-trimester ultrasound scan was carried out to detect CHD that was subsequently verified by a reference standard. Data were extracted on study characteristics and quality, and 2 x 2 tables were constructed to calculate sensitivity and specificity. Results: Ten studies (involving 1243 patients) were suitable for inclusion. Of these, four used transabdominal ultrasonography, four used transvaginal and two used a combination. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were 85% (95% CI, 78-90%) and 99% (95% CI, 98-100%), respectively. Conclusion: Ultrasound examination of the fetus in the first trimester is feasible for accurately detecting major CHD. It may be offered to women at high risk of having children with CHD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An abstract of the conference paper "Thrombocytopenia in neonates treated by repeated intrauterine transfusions," by R. Bartkowiak and colleagues, is presented.