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Objective To investigate the seasonal pattern of overall mortality among children aged below 5 years living in two informal settlements in Nairobi City. Methods We used data collected from January 2003 to December 2005 in the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System on demographic events (birth, death, and migration). Analyses of seasonal effects on under-five mortality are based on Poisson regression controlling for sex, age, study site and calendar year. Results During the study period, there were 17 878 children below 5 years in the study sites. Overall 436 under-five deaths were recorded. The overall death rate for the under-five children was 19.95 per 1 000 person years. There is a significant seasonal variation of under-five mortality. The mortality risk was significantly higher in the second and third quarters of year than in the fourth quarter (RR = 1.6, CI: 1.3–2.2 and RR = 1.5, CI: 1.1–2.0). Conclusion This paper demonstrates that overall mortality among under-five children in the urban poor is seasonal. Overall during the second quarter of the year, the death rate increases by nearly twofold. This evidence generated here may help to support well targeted interventions in reducing under-five mortality in the slums. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives (1) To determine whether mortality rates were raised in sick children in the 30 days after visiting first-level health facilities in an area under demographic surveillance in western Kenya, (2) to identify the types of illnesses associated with increased mortality and (3) to estimate the effectiveness of appropriate treatment. Methods All sick children (2–59 months of age) who attended one of the seven participating first-level health facilities from May to August 2003 were identified. A standardized mortality ratio was computed to compare their mortality rate in the 30 days after a sick visit with that of the community under active demographic and health surveillance. A multivariate Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to identify illnesses associated with death and to estimate the protective effectiveness of appropriate treatment for potentially life-threatening diseases. Results A total of 1383 eligible children made 1697 sick visits; 33 (2.4%) died within 30 days. Compared with children 2–59 months in the general population, sick children had a 5.3 times greater mortality rate [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.8–7.5]. In a multivariate survival analysis, significant risk factors for mortality included age <24 months [Hazard Ratio (HR) 4.4, 95% CI 1.5–12.6], malnutrition (HR 15.5, 95% CI 6.1–39.8), severe pneumonia (HR 12.9, 95% CI 3.0–56.4) and anaemia (HR 3.3, 95% CI 1.5–7.2). Appropriate treatment for a child’s most severe illness reduced mortality by 78% (95% CI 57–89%). Conclusion We estimate that improvements in diagnosis and appropriate treatment at first-level health facilities for children 2–59 months could reduce overall under-5 mortality in the area by 12–14%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]