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This paper shows the effects of uncertainty of economic growth and inflation on average rates of output growth and inflation, using quarterly data of Argentina, during the last three decades. The paper employs a GARCH-M model (VAKMA model) that permits to test diagonally and symmetry relationships between the variables. The results suggest that increased growth uncertainty is associated with significantly higher average output growth (theory of precautionary savings), while higher inflation uncertainty is correlated with lower average output growth (Okun, 1971, and Friedman, 1977, arguments). Both inflation and economic growth show evidence of significant asymmetric response to positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the demand for the monetary aggregate M1 for Mexico. Using cointegration techniques, we identify both a stable long-run relationship between M1 and its determinants, and a statistically sound single-equation error-correction model. Results are used to carry out the following simple applications: i) empirical determination of the value and stability of dual inflationary equilibria, given the observed seigniorage levels; ii) calculation of the seigniorage maximizing inflation rate, and iii) analysis of the potential relationship between a measure of excess money and inflation. Results indicate that the low inflation equilibrium is stable, and that the excess money indicator shows, in retrospective, some capacity in predicting inflationary pressures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the first historical series of poverty and inequality in Mexico for the period 1950-2004. We observe that poverty reduces continuously between 1950 and 1984, and remains constant, with the exception of 1996, where it increases sharply. With regards to inequality, this variable follows an inverted U trend between 1950 and 1984, similar to the Kuznets curve; however, it increases almost continuously from 1984 on. We also show that during 1950-2004 the correlation between poverty and economic growth has been strong and negative, the correlation between poverty and inflation has been strong and positive, and the correlation between poverty and inequality has also been positive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]