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The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represents the largest infrastructure and development project in human history, and presents risks and opportunities for ecosystems, economies, and communities. Some risks (habitat fragmentation, roadkill) are obvious, however, many of the BRI's largest challenges for development and conservation are not obvious and require extensive consideration to identify. In this first BRI Horizon Scan, we identify 11 frontier issues that may have large environmental and social impacts but are not yet recognised. More generally, the BRI will increase China's participation in international environmental governance. Thus, new cooperative modes of governance are needed to balance geopolitical, societal, and environmental interests. Upgrading and standardising global environmental standards is essential to safeguard ecological systems and human societies. We present 11 frontier issues identified in the first BRI Horizon Scan. Issues were submitted by 14 researchers after consulting approximately 250 people in their networks, and scoring, based on impact and novelty, was conducted using the Delphi process. Frontier issues include: threats to karst-based ecosystems via extraction for cement, BRI expansion to the Arctic, and the impacts of geopolitical rivalry on environmental and social standards and on building in conflict zones. Other issues include: the potential spread of microbial species, the growth of TCM in BRI countries, and opportunities arising from more inclusive governance and partnership with local and indigenous communities. We highlight the challenges faced in building the Belt and Road, and the compromises that may be made between sustainability and developmental goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our 15th annual horizon scan identified 15 emerging issues of concern for global biodiversity conservation. A panel of 31 scientists and practitioners submitted a total of 96 topics that were ranked using a Delphi-style technique according to novelty and likelihood of impact on biodiversity conservation. The top 37 issues were discussed in person and online in September 2023 during which the issues were ranked according to the same criteria. Our 15 issues cover impacts from the development of new sources of hydrogen fuel to temperature changes in the mesopelagic ocean zone. Other emerging technologies include benchtop DNA printers and the creation of high-protein food from air. We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents. For example, new sources of hydrogen fuel and changes in deep-sea currents may have profound impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Technological advances that may be positive include benchtop DNA printers and the industrialisation of approaches that can create high-protein food from air, potentially reducing the pressure on land for food production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of our 13th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact on biodiversity conservation. Issues are either novel within the biological conservation sector or could cause a substantial step-change in impact, either globally or regionally. Our global panel of 26 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues that we believe to represent the highest priorities for tracking and action. Many of the issues we identified, including the impact of satellite megaconstellations and the use of long-distance wireless energy transfer, have both elements of threats and emerging opportunities. A recent state-sponsored application to commence deep-sea mining represents a significant step-change in impact. We hope that this horizon scan will increase research and policy attention on the highlighted issues. Our 13th annual horizon scan identified 15 emerging issues of concern for global biodiversity conservation. A panel of 26 scientists and practitioners submitted a total of 80 topics that were ranked using a Delphi-style technique according to the novelty and likelihood of impact on biodiversity conservation. The top 36 issues were discussed at an online meeting held in September 2021 during which issues were ranked according to the same criteria. Our 15 issues cover impacts ranging from satellite megaconstellations to deep-sea mining. Other emerging issues include floating photovoltaics, long-distance wireless energy, and ammonia as a fuel source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results from our 12th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biological conservation in the future. From a list of 97 topics, our global panel of 25 scientists and practitioners identified the top 15 issues that we believe society may urgently need to address. These issues are either novel in the biological conservation sector or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change in impact at global or regional level. Six issues, such as coral reef deoxygenation and changes in polar coastal productivity, affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven relate to human and ecosystem-level responses to climate change. Identification of potential forthcoming issues for biological conservation may enable increased preparedness by researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers. Our 12th annual horizon scan identified 15 emerging issues of concern for global biodiversity conservation. A panel of 25 scientists and practitioners submitted a total of 97 topics that were ranked using a Delphi-style technique according to novelty and likelihood of impact on biodiversity conservation. The top 38 issues were discussed at an online meeting held in September 2020 during which issues were ranked according to the same criteria. Six of the 15 issues primarily affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven are related to human and ecosystem-level responses to anthropogenic climate change. Other emerging issues include complete coverage of Indian states for sustainable farming and the potential for use of self-healing building materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this horizon scan, we highlight 15 emerging issues of potential relevance to global conservation in 2020. Seven relate to potentially extensive changes in vegetation or ecological systems. These changes are either relatively new, for example, conversion of kelp forests to simpler macroalgal systems, or may occur in the future, for example, as a result of the derivation of nanocelluose from wood or the rapid expansion of small hydropower schemes. Other topics highlight potential changes in national legislation that may have global effect on international agreements. Our panel of 23 scientists and practitioners selected these issues using a modified version of the Delphi technique from a long-list of 89 potential topics. We present 15 issues that emerged from our 11th annual horizon scan of global biological conservation. Issues were identified by a diverse group of scientists and practitioners. The group scored the long-list of 89 issues using a Delphi-like process. Issues were ranked according to novelty, relevance, and potential impact on biological conservation. The top-38 ranked issues were debated at a workshop in Cambridge, UK, with each topic scored immediately following the discussion. Emerging themes include changes in national legislation that could affect international agreements; recognising ecocide as an international crime; and the global decline in kelp forests. Other issues include the increasing use of traditional Asian medicine; the spread of the Asian long-horned tick; use of artificial wombs in mammalian conservation; and the impact that the shrinking ozone hole may have on Antarctic sea ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of our tenth annual horizon scan. We identified 15 emerging priority topics that may have major positive or negative effects on the future conservation of global biodiversity, but currently have low awareness within the conservation community. We hope to increase research and policy attention on these areas, improving the capacity of the community to mitigate impacts of potentially negative issues, and maximise the benefits of issues that provide opportunities. Topics include advances in crop breeding, which may affect insects and land use; manipulations of natural water flows and weather systems on the Tibetan Plateau; release of carbon and mercury from melting polar ice and thawing permafrost; new funding schemes and regulations; and land-use changes across Indo-Malaysia. Highlights We present the 15 topics identified in our tenth annual horizon scan for global conservation. Scoring was carried out by a diverse group of experts using a Delphi-like process. Scores were based on the topics' novelty, likelihood, and potential for major impacts on biodiversity. Emerging themes include conservation impacts of biotechnological advances in agriculture. Other issues included climate change-induced release of carbon and mercury from polar ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]