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The factors influencing trip departure time are taking more importance in urban planning practice since congestion is increasingly being addressed by travel demand management (TDM) strategies. In this paper we formulate and estimate a joint travel mode-departure time model for commuting trips using combined revealed preference (RP) and stated choice (SC) data. The RP data considered nine alternative modes and up to 11 time periods, and the level-of-service data were obtained at an unusual level of precision using GPS measurements. The travel time, cost and cost divided by the wage rate coefficients were fairly similar in both the RP and SC environments, suggesting equal error variances for both datasets. The only parameters that differed between each type of data were those associated with the schedule delay early (SDE) and late (SDL) variables required by Small's Scheduling Model. This may be due to the potentially different temporal perspectives between RP choices (longer term decisions) and SC decisions, arguably shorter term given the nature of the experiment and the context presented in it (implementation of a congestion charging policy and a flexible working-hours scheme). The models were used to forecast the impacts of a hypothetic congestion charging scheme in Santiago, showing that the schedule delay coefficients derived from the SC context produced a smoother and less-peaked temporal distribution of travel demand than the RP parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying road pricing acceptability has become increasingly relevant. Even though the policy has been effective in reducing the growing levels of congestion in several cities by curbing the indiscriminate use of the car, it still faces an initial rejection among the population in general. We discuss this issue based on a comprehensive review and set out to define what could be an acceptable road pricing scheme for Santiago de Chile. For this purpose, we estimated a hybrid discrete choice model that allowed us to segment the population according to their attitudes toward the measure. The preferred road pricing scheme in Santiago would charge only for entrance to the smallest of three cordons, around the historic centre of the city, during either the morning (or morning and evening) rush hours, provided that revenues were used to enhance public transport in the city. Since this is different from the best technical solution, which would imply charging in the largest cordon area, we suggest testing the preferred scheme in a pilot trial, following international recommendations and successful previous cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Passenger demand and, in particular, mode choice between the islands of Gran Canaria and Tenerife has experienced important changes in the last decade. In 2005 the jetfoil, which had been the dominant mode for many years, was replaced by a slower but cheaper fast ferry service. This induced important changes in the market shares of all competing modes (airplane, slow ferry and another fast ferry with a shorter in-sea time, but needing a bus connection in land). We estimated several discrete choice models, with data collected two years before, with the aim to test their forecasting performance in relation with observed behaviour. Interestingly, we found that an easy to interpret multinomial logit model allowing for systematic taste variations performed best in forecasting. We also discuss some model assumptions related to forecasting that allow replicating the effects of introducing a new mode more accurately. We finally show how the model can be used to examine the social benefits of a related infrastructure improvement project in the island of Gran Canaria. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We treat the problem of fitting alternative specific constants (ASC) in models estimated with a mixture of revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data to forecast the market shares of new alternatives. This important problem can have non-trivial solutions, particularly when some of the SP alternatives are completely revamped versions of existing ones (i.e., an advanced passenger train replacing a normal railway service). As there is no explicit treatment of this problem in the literature we examined it in depth and illustrated it empirically using data especially collected to analyse mode choice in a corridor to the West of Cagliari. We propose a hopefully useful guide to this art (as no practical recipes seem to serve all purposes). Careful specification of the systematic component of utility functions in RP and SP, including the ASC, serves to illuminate the true nature of the underlying error structure in the different data sets, yielding superior forecasting models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Evading behaviour decreases when dissatisfaction with other users' evasion behaviour increases. • Evading behaviour increases when satisfaction with reliability decreases. • Reliability is clearly the most relevant attribute related to overall satisfaction. • A behavioural fare-evader profile for Santiago is built and policy recommendations are provided. • Behavioural contagion is a plausible theoretical justification for our results. Fare evasion, in public transport (PT), is a major problem in certain countries and threatens the PT administrators' funds directly. Hence, identifying the possible causes for this behaviour can be highly relevant. Governments and PT administrators aim to deliver first-class services to satisfy customers, who will then tend to reuse the services and recommend them to friends and family, attracting new users. Customer surveys help PT administrators determining which items are more relevant for users. We hypothesise that a direct link exists between overall and attribute-specific satisfaction and fare evading behaviour; we also test the notion that the evading behaviour of other users may directly impact the satisfaction of a given user. As such, we propose a general PT satisfaction-evasion behavioural model which considers (dis)satisfaction with other users' fare evading behaviour, attribute-specific satisfaction, overall satisfaction, reuse intention, and self-reported fare evading behaviour. We base our analysis on a single intercept survey (n = 2,002), designed on the basis of focus groups conducted on users of two PT modes, Metro and bus, in Santiago de Chile. Using structural equation models (SEM) we are able to capture heterogeneous perceptions and behaviours among PT users. In particular, we found that evading behaviour increases when satisfaction with (i.e. attitude towards) other users ' fare evading behaviour increases (contagion effect), and when satisfaction with reliability decreases. We develop a behavioural fare evader profile, that could be useful in policy making. For overall satisfaction, we test a variety of models confirming that reliability is the most crucial satisfaction construct in our case. We provide policy recommendations for deterring fare evasion in Santiago based on our results, but our framework is clearly generalisable to other PT settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of indicators of willingness-to-pay (WTP) and the computation of associated measures of uncertainty have attracted much interest in the general area of choice modelling, but have also been characterised by a substantial amount of confusion and misguided discussions. We examine this problem in depth, both theoretically and empirically, in an effort to illustrate the most appropriate approaches to solving this problem, which has important repercussions for practice in our field. Our findings should be useful to analysts advising on transport policy and infrastructure project evaluation, in particular when requiring estimates of the value of travel time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Service provider administrators need to identify which perceived service quality (PSQ) elements are more relevant for users. By doing this, specific tactical and operational policies can be implemented to retain and attract new customers. In the public transport (PT) arena, few PSQ studies account for both service encounter and global satisfaction. Further, although some studies consider customer heterogeneity, we believe it has not been adequately captured. Regarding the problem of modelling PSQ from a PT service provider, we present a case study from Santiago, Chile. We analyse the PSQ derived from an extensive ( n  =  25,094 ) urban bus system satisfaction survey using structural equation models (SEM). Explicitly, we incorporate heterogeneity for both travel characteristics and sociodemographic attributes utilising a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) approach. We model two simultaneous regression equations regarding satisfaction with the bus-line (service encounter) being used and with the system (global), correcting for heterogeneity in all the satisfaction constructs via the SEM-MIMIC approach. Our main result is that the most critical variable for service encounter satisfaction is frequency/waiting time. For global satisfaction, the most significant attribute is tangibles/image, which includes satisfaction with the allied Metro service, with other users’ behaviour, and with information availability. As the perceived waiting time affects all satisfaction constructs negatively, we consider it a critical policy variable to tackle. Our model can serve as a planning tool for any PT administrator. The framework applies to any service setting with independent service-specific and global satisfaction attributes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding individual choices over time and measuring day-to-day variability in travel behaviour is important to capture the full range of travel behaviour. Although not very common, to date several multi-day travel surveys have been conducted and panel data is available to model different transport choices. However, determining the length of a panel that allows revealing variability in travel behaviour remains an open question. Also, no final agreement has been reached about modelling the various dimensions of correlation over the repeated observations. In this paper, we use the six-week panel data from the Mobidrive survey to estimate a mode choice model that accounts for correlation across individual observations over two time periods: all days of a single week and different days of the week (e.g. all Mondays) in the wave. We first analyse these effects separately, estimating different models for each type of correlation; then we try to disentangle the relative effects of each type of correlation, estimating both types jointly. We found that both types of correlation appeared highly significant when estimated alone, while only the correlation across a given day over the six-week period remained significant, when both types were estimated jointly. This implies that for the Mobidrive panel there is much less variability in mode choice across weeks than across the days of each week. It also suggests that one week could be an appropriate length for a panel to estimate modal choice and to correctly reveal day-to-day variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the valuation of crowding in public transport trips and its implications in demand estimation and cost-benefit analysis. We use a choice-based stated preference survey where crowding levels are represented by means of specially designed pictures, and use these data to estimate flexible discrete choice models. We assume that the disutility associated with travelling under crowded conditions is proportional to travel time. Our results are consistent with and extend previous findings in the literature: passenger density has a significant effect on the utility of travelling by public transport; in fact, the marginal disutility of travel time in a crowded vehicle (6 standing-passengers/m 2 ) is 2.5 times higher than in a vehicle with available seats. We also compare the effects of different policies for improving bus operations, and the effect of adding crowding valuation in cost-benefit analysis. In doing that, we endogenise the crowding level as the result of the equilibrium between demand and supplied bus capacity. Our results indicate that important benefits may be accrued from policies designed to reduce crowding, and that ignoring crowding effects significantly overestimate the bus travel demand the benefits associated with pure travel time reductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the year 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic affected mobility around the world, significantly reducing the number of trips by public transport. In this paper, we study its impact in five South American capitals (i.e., Bogotá, Buenos Aires, Lima, Quito and Santiago). A decline in public transport patronage could be very bad news for these cities in the long term, particularly if users change to less sustainable modes, such as cars or motorbikes. Notwithstanding, it could be even beneficial if users selected more sustainable modes, such as active transport (e.g., bicycles and walking). To better understand this phenomenon in the short term, we conducted surveys in these five cities looking for the main explanation for changes from public transport to active and private modes in terms of user perceptions, activity patterns and sociodemographic information. To forecast people's mode shifts in each city, we integrated both objective and subjective information collected in this study using a SEM-MIMIC model. We found five latent variables (i.e., COVID-19 impact, Entities response , Health risk , Life related activities comfort and Subjective well-being), two COVID-19 related attributes (i.e. , new cases and deaths), two trip attributes (i.e., cost savings and time), and six socio-demographic attributes (i.e. , age, civil status, household characteristics, income level , occupation and gender) influencing the shift from public transport to other modes. Furthermore, both the number of cases and the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 increased the probability of moving from public transport to other modes but, in general, we found a smaller probability of moving to active modes than to private modes. The paper proposes a novel way for understanding geographical and contextual similarities in the pandemic scenario for these metropolises from a transportation perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Binary stated choices between traveller’s current travel mode and a not-yet-existing mode might be used to build a forecasting model with all (current and future) travel alternatives. One challenge with this approach is the identification of the most appropriate inter-alternative error structure of the forecasting model. By critically assessing the practise of translating estimated group scale parameters into nest parameters, we illustrate the inherent limitations of such binary choice data. To overcome some of the problems, we use information from both stated and revealed choice data and propose a model with a cross-nested logit specification, which is estimated on the pooled data set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In recent years there has been a re-focus on the valuation of a statistical life from the ex post or human capital method to an ex ante willingness to pay (WTP) approach. This is in part a recognition that we may have been undervaluing the cost of fatalities and injuries to society associated with crashes, but also a strong belief in the need to focus on establishing the amount, ex ante, that individuals are willing to pay to reduce the risk of exposure to circumstances that might lead to death or degree of injury on the road network. This study has developed a framework in which to identify the degree of preference heterogeneity in willingness to pay by individuals who are drivers or passengers in cars to avoid being killed or injured. A stated choice experiment approach is developed. The empirical setting is a choice of route for a particular trip that a sample of individuals periodically undertakes in Australia. The particular trip is described in enough detail to provide the respondent with a familiar market environment, providing all the relevant background information required for making a decision. Mixed logit models are estimated to obtain the marginal (dis)utilities associated with each influence on the choice amongst the attribute packages offered in the stated choice scenarios. These estimates are used to obtain the WTP distributions for fatality and injury avoidance, which are then aggregated to obtain estimates of the value of risk reduction (VRR), of which the fatality class is also known as the value of a statistical life (VSL). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract Transportation Research (TR) was established in 1967 with the vision of promoting multi-disciplinary (economics, engineering, sociology, psychology) research on transport systems. The journal has continuously expanded its wings becoming a world-leading journal, now publishing research work through six parts, A to F, respectively addressing Policy and Practice , Methodological , Emerging Technologies , Transport and Environment , Logistics and Transportation Review , and Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. This study aims to celebrate the first half century of the journal through a bibliometric study of the publications on all six parts between 1967 and 2016. It uses the most reliable database for academic research, the Web of Science Core Collection , to identify the leading trends in all TR journals in terms of impact, topics, authors, universities, and countries. Moreover, it uses the Visualization of Similarities (VOS) viewer software to analyse bibliographic coupling, co-citation, citation, co-authorship, and co-occurrence of keywords. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fare evasion is a problem in many public transport systems around the world and policies to reduce it are generally aimed at improving control and increasing fines. We use an econometric approach to attempt explaining the high levels of evasion in Santiago, Chile, and guide public policy formulation to reduce this problem. In particular, a negative binomial count regression model allowed us to find that fare evasion rates on buses increase as: (i) more people board (or alight) at a given bus door, (ii) more passengers board by a rear door, (iii) buses have higher occupancy levels (and more doors) and (iv) passengers experience longer headways. By controlling these variables ( ceteris paribus ), results indicate that evasion is greater during the afternoon and evening, but it is not clear that it is higher during peak hours. Regarding socioeconomic variables, we found that fare evasion at bus stops located in higher income areas (municipalities) is significantly lower than in more deprived areas. Finally, based on our results we identified five main methods to address evasion as alternatives to more dedicated fine enforcement or increased inspection; (i) increasing the bus fleet, (ii) improving the bus headway regularity, (iii) implementing off-board payment stations, (iv) changing the payment system on board and (v) changing the bus design (number of doors or capacity). Our model provides a powerful tool to predict the reduction of fare evasion due to the implementation of some of these five operational strategies, and can be applied to other bus public transport systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the potential role of individual trip characteristics and social capital network variables in the choice of transport mode. A sample of around 100 individuals living or working in one suburb of Madrid (i.e. Las Rosas district of Madrid) participated in a smartphone short panel survey, entering travel data for an entire working week. A Mixed Logit model was estimated with this data to analyze shifts to metro as a consequence of the opening of two new stations in the area. Apart from classical explanatory variables, such as travel time and cost, gender, license and car ownership, the model incorporated two “social capital network” variables: participation in voluntary activities and receiving help for various tasks (i.e. child care, housekeeping, etc.). Both variables improved the capacity of the model to explain transport mode shifts. Further, our results confirm that the shift towards metro was higher in the case of people “helped” and lower for those participating in some voluntary activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]