1. Projection of the Daily Travel of an Ageing Population: The Paris and Montreal Case, 1975–2020
- Author
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Virginie Dejoux, Jean-Loup Madre, Jimmy Armoogum, Yves Bussiere, Département Economie et Sociologie des Transports (INRETS/DEST), Institut National de Recherche sur les Transports et leur Sécurité (INRETS), Urbanisation Culture Société - INRS (INRS-UCS), Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique [Québec] (INRS), Facultad de Economía [Puebla] (REDEM BUAP), and Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla (BUAP)
- Subjects
Population ageing ,education.field_of_study ,[SHS.SOCIO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Sociology ,Urban agglomeration ,Demographics ,Population ,ZONE URBAINE ,Urban sprawl ,Transportation ,Geography ,PERSONNE AGEE ,Economy ,Elderly population ,MOBILITE (PERS) ,Economic geography ,Projection (set theory) ,education ,SOCIOLOGIE ,Trip distance ,POPULATION - Abstract
International audience; Ageing of the population, urban sprawl and car dependency will change travel patterns. The main objective of this paper is to give elements for a better understanding of the impact of changing demographics on the long term evolution of daily mobility using demographic-based models to forecast, for the elderly population, car-ownership, trip frequency, distance traveled, average trip distance. A second objective is to measure the impact of the long term tendencies observed on the appearance of new needs of travel demand such as a rapid increase of demand-responsive transport. The paper compares two agglomerations, both in a strong ageing process, but in quite different sociocultural contexts: a large European metropolis: Paris, and a medium sized north-american city: Montreal. Many common conclusions derived from the two different cases studies reinforce the possibility of generalizing the conclusions to other situations.
- Published
- 2010