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The accumulation of highly sensitized patients (HSP) on renal transplant waiting lists is a problem faced by all transplant registries. We have studied the HLA class I serological reactivity of 20 random HSP and have related antibody specificity to primary amino acid sequence. In six patients we identified significant correlations (chi 2 test, r > or = 0.93) between panel reactivity and specific amino acid substitutions characteristic of HLA-A, -B, and -C public epitopes. Antibody reactivity was associated with up to three public epitopes in each patient. The 12 separate antibody specificities identified were associated with 10 residues. Seven correlated with HLA-A locus substitutions (Glu-62/Gly-65, Lys-66, Arg-114, His-114/Tyr-116/Lys-127, Thr-142/His-145 [x2], and Thr-149), two with HLA-B locus substitutions (Thr-24, Ser-24) and three with interlocus antibodies associated with either HLA-A and B (Leu-82/Arg-83 [x2]) or with HLA-B and -C substitutions (Leu-163). This information allowed us to predict HLA class I allelic products of known primary sequence that would react negatively with each HSP serum. Windows of acceptable mismatches (WAMMs) can thus be delineated with a view to crossmatch negative transplantation without the need for exhaustive serological analysis. Surprisingly we found that WAMMs for these patients included up to 80% of the 10 commonest HLA class I haplotypes in the British population with four patients being crossmatch compatible with A1,3; B7,8. These observations lead us to propose a more intelligent approach to transplanting HSP based on epitope analysis and definition of WAMMs.

The Corneal Transplant Follow-up Study has followed 2311 penetrating keratoplasties for up to 450 days after transplant. A total of 207 failures were observed, including 65 classical rejections and 35 endothelial decompensations. At 12 months, graft survival was 89%, and survival free from rejection was 87%. For surviving grafts, risk of failure reduced from 4.8% in the first 75 days and stabilized after 5 months at 1.2% in each 75-day interval. Risk of rejection initially followed a similar pattern, but then increased after 12 months. Multifactorial analyses accounted for differences in recipient characteristics and interrelationships of donor factors. Donor age, sex, cause of death, and method of corneal storage were not found to influence significantly either time to graft failure or time to first rejection. Grafts in prospectively tissue-typed donor-recipient pairs were generally considered before surgery to be at increased risk of either graft failure or rejection. With due allowance, increasing risk of rejection was associated with increasing numbers of mismatches at HLA-A and HLA-B broad antigens. The opposite was true at HLA-DR broad antigens, where increased risk of rejection was observed with no mismatches.

The technique of universal heteroduplex generator (UHG) crossmatching has been developed to permit comparison of HLA-DPB1 alleles between two or more individuals. It offers a rapid and simple method of screening prospective bone marrow donors for HLA-DPB1 compatibility with the recipient. We present the nucleotide sequence and describe the method of construction of the DPB1 UHG. To test its effectiveness, 56 patient-bone marrow donor pairs previously HLA-DPB1-typed by PCR-SSO probing, were tested by UHG crossmatching. In 52/56 (93%) pairs there was concordance between PCR-SSO typing and UHG crossmatching. All 32 pairs that were defined as mismatched by PCR-SSO typing were also mismatched by UHG crossmatching. We conclude that UHG crossmatching is a simple, sensitive, and cost effective method of HLA-DPB1 matching for the rapid selection of compatible bone marrow donors.

Tolerance to noninherited maternal antigens (NIMAs) of the MHC was investigated in a rat model involving both skin and corneal transplants. Recipient animals were obtained by backcrossing F1 hybrids to parental strain animals. In one group of experiments, crosses were (DA[RT1a] x LEW[RT1(1)]) female-to-LEW male and, in a second group, (DAxPVG[RT1c]) female-to-PVG male. Homozygous backcross offspring (RT1(1/1) or RT1c/c) were putatively tolerant to DA NIMAs if the mother was a hybrid animal, having been exposed to these antigens in utero. The equivalent offspring of hybrid fathers, i.e., LEW female x (DAxLEW) male or PVG female x (DAxPVG) male, served as putatively nontolerant controls. Hemagglutinating antibody levels were measured against the class I RT1Aa antigen on days 7 and 14 after up to three consecutive subcutaneous DA strain skin grafts. Significantly lower titers were found in the putatively tolerant group 7 days after the first skin graft in the RT1a-to-RT1(1) combination (P < 0.05). Levels were not significantly different at any other time point, or at any time point in the RT1a-to-RT1c combination. Tolerance to a corneal graft was not demonstrated in either the strongly rejecting RT1a-to-RT1(1) combination or weakly rejecting RT1a-to-RT1c, whether or not animals were presensitized to RT1a antigens with DA skin grafts. We conclude that tolerance to NIMAs is unimportant in this clinical rat model of transplantation.

We show how to estimate expected waiting time to transplantation and match grade potential for each patient awaiting kidney transplantation on a multicenter waiting list. We predict that some easily well-matched patients may be unlikely to receive a well-matched graft through accepting an earlier offer of a poorly matched kidney. Other patients, who are difficult to match, may be unlikely to receive even a poorly matched kidney within a reasonable time.

Many studies have shown long-term benefits of HLA matching in kidney transplantation. By examining rates of graft loss within consecutive posttransplant intervals, using data from the UK Transplant Service, we show that the long-term benefits of HLA matching are due to reduction of the graft failure rate within five months of transplantation. After 5-months, HLA-A,B,DR matching appears to have little impact on graft loss. We suggest that graft losses after 5 months may be attributable to non-HLA targets.

A total of 3653 first cadaver kidney transplants in nondiabetic recipients over 15 years of age, performed in 30 transplant centers throughout the United Kingdom between 1978 and 1983, were analyzed to discover which of many recorded recipient, donor, surgical, and tissue-matching variables were important for graft survival, and in which postoperative period they exerted their maximum influence. A considerable effort was invested in checking the validity of the data and the appropriateness of the statistical methods. The duration of dialysis prior to transplantation was associated with a substantially reduced risk of graft failure, particularly at later postoperative times. Good HLA-B locus matching was also found to enhance graft survival--but, by contrast, HLA-A locus matching showed no significant effect on survival. Recipient age over 45 years, high serum reactivity, and grafts with anoxia time (the interval between circulatory arrest and perfusion with ice) exceeding 10 min were found to be associated with poor graft survival. Trends in survival were identified across calendar years of transplant, such that early graft failure (0-15 days) had increased in recent years, whereas later graft failure (greater than 15 days) had declined.

The purpose of this study was to perform a rigorous statistical analysis of the benefits of HLA-A,B and DR matching in renal transplantation. Graft survival in 2282 first cadaver kidney transplants, recorded and followed up by the United Kingdom Transplant Service (UKTS), was analyzed using the piecewise proportional hazards regression method. The results show that substantial improvements in graft survival are obtained when there is DR compatibility and at most one A or B mismatch, but that there is little advantage in tissue matching unless this degree of matching can be attained. So far, few graft recipients have benefited substantially through tissue matching (24% of kidneys exchanged through UKTS in 1984). This is partly attributable to unresolved technical problems in DR typing. However simulations show that under ideal conditions, with a pool of 3000 patients awaiting transplantation, considerable improvements in graft survival can be obtained in over 60% of recipients.

A single enzyme/multiple probe system of HLA-DR and DQ typing using restriction fragment-length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis is presented. TaqI-digested genomic DNAs are hybridized sequentially with short DR beta, DQ beta, and DQ alpha cDNA probes. The DR beta probe discriminates between the DR allelic specificities DR1 to DRw14, with the two exceptions of some DR3/DRw13 and some DR7/DRw9 combinations. We describe the positive identification of a DRw10-specific RFLP and demonstrate its segregation in families. The DQ beta probe defines an allelic system that identifies the alleles DQw1, DQw2, and DQw3. This permits the resolution of DR3/DRw13 and DR7/DRw9 alleles by defining the DR/DQ association caused by linkage disequilibrium. The DQ alpha probe defines another allelic series interrelated with, but independent from, the DQ beta series. Specific DQ beta/DQ alpha RFLP combinations correlate with known Dw splits of DR2, DRw6, and DR7. Combined use of the three probes permits the identification of HLA-DR, DQ, and certain Dw specificities and provides an effective and easily interpretable system for major histocompatibility complex class II allogenotyping.

Stratified proportional hazards regression is described as a method of estimating multifactorially preoperative factor effects on graft survival--and, at the same time, making due allowances for unknown transplant-center-specific influences. The multifactorial aspect of the method overcomes the biases inherent in analyzing transplant survival data one factor at a time, and stratification allows the data from many centers to be used simultaneously without the dangers associated with simple pooling of data from many sources. The proportionality and regression assumptions implicit in the method enable the data to be used efficiently, but must be validated on the data. Methods by which these assumptions may be relaxed are described--in particular, the stratified piece-wise proportional hazards regression method.

An analysis of pooled data from transplants performed between 1977 and 1981 in 29 centers throughout the United Kingdom and Ireland revealed that the pattern of loss varied according to cause and postoperative time. Loss from rejection was characterized by a bimodal pattern in which early (0-25 days) and late (26-100 days) peaks of rejection were distinguishable. Rejected second transplants exhibited this phenomenon more than first transplants, and the loss was proportionately greater during the early period, suggesting that prior sensitization played an important role. Graft loss from technical causes and recipient death showed distinctly different patterns of loss. These findings suggested that, when possible, transplant survival statistics should be analyzed separately according to postoperative time and cause of loss. In applying these preliminary observations of the pooled data to a comparative study of the results in the different centers it was noted that such comparisons could be substantially affected by random variability in estimates of actuarial survival rates. Therefore, a simple method of ranking was developed in which centers were allocated to high or low survivorship categories, or to an indeterminate category when the standard error in estimated actuarial survival was relatively large. Whereas the variation in loss rate from death with a functioning transplant (DWFT) was found to be indistinguishable from random variability, both nonimmunological failure (NIF) and immunological failure (IF) of the graft were found to be legitimate bases for ranking. Furthermore, center ranking based on IF at 0-25 days failed to exhibit a significant relationship with IF at 26-100 days, which could indicate important center differences associated with antirejection treatments during these two periods. These results showed that, ideally, time-cause parameters should be analyzed separately when comparing transplant survival statistics in different centers.