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The paper is an exploratory study on the travel intentions of mainland Chinese residents to Japan after Diaoyu Island political crisis. Due to the superior location and excellent service, Japan has become one of the most popular outbound tourism destinations for Mainland Chinese tourists in the past 10 years. However, since the complicated and subtle relations between China and Japan, the tourism industry of Japan is evidently sensitive and vulnerable to various crisis. Under such circumstances, it is necessary to investigate the decision tree model research as well as compare domestic and overseas researches at the very beginning of the study. On the basis of literature review and in-depth interview with tourism operators via a three rounds of pre-test and revision, a self-completion questionnaire was developed and used to measure domestic residents' attitude and travel intentions after the Diaoyu Island political crisis. Data was collected through surveys in cities of different sizes from both developed and undeveloped areas in eastern and western China, such as Shanghai and cities in Fujian, Guizhou, Hubei, Jiangsu and Sichuan provinces. All respondents have abilities to travel to Japan economically and potentials to travel. Altogether 800 questionnaires were distributed and 756 were returned. Descriptive analysis was used to analyze the travel intention characteristics of domestic residents to Japan utilizing SPSS21.0. Four vital realities were found from the analysis. First, seeking entertainment opportunities can be the main motivation for Chinese residents travelling to Japan. Second, the family-based tour ought to be considered as the main trip mode. Third, the primary channels for tourism information dissemination include travel agencies and tourism e-commercial websites. Fourth, four to six-day staying in Japan could be proved as a suitable choice for domestic residents who prefer travelling during the national holidays and paid vacations. The CHAID decision tree model is reasonably used to analyze the differences of the intentions to travel among potential tourists in China. Based on the decision tree analysis, most citizens would choose to "cancel the travel plan" (29.0%), followed by "replace tourist destination" and "postpone the travel", yet only 19.6% would "travel as scheduled" in the light of the post impacts of Diaoyu Island political crisis. There could be no doubt that the vast majority of citizens in China lay emphasis on the macro political environment when making a travel decision. Four dominant nodes were generated in tree simulation, namely respective age, number of times to Japan, monthly income and marital status. This study has made a detailed analysis on the causes, and provides each group with tailored marketing measures eventually. Thereby, mixed measures should be implemented, including short-term and long-term plans, to recover the tourism market effectively. From the perspective of crisis decision-making and crisis marketing, this study segments the mainland Chinese citizens in order to disclose the heterogeneity and clustering features of them. The results of the study may set up a systematic foundation for better positioning potential tourists by furnishing an exploratory method for crisis management and crisis marketing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been more than 70 years since the end of World War II. During this period, "peace" and "development" have become two major themes for all human beings, although war still exists in some areas of the world. Under this background, the global tourism industry has experienced a rapid growth for a long time. However, the tourism development brings not only economic benefits but also problems for tourism destinations. Millions of tourists have exerted negative impacts on urban destinations in terms of their physical (transportation, water, electronic resource, etc.) and nonphysical (society, culture, belief of the residents, etc.) elements. In this regard, this article aims to build a model of social- psychological carrying capacity of residents using FAHP (fuzzy analytic hierarchy process) method. The paper is divided into six parts: introduction, literature review, concepts and establishment of the evaluation index system, introduction of the mathematical methods (FAHP), application research on the Asakusa area in Tokyo, and future directions. The literature review focuses on the development process of carrying capacity theory in terms of the traceability concept from ecology, sociology, economics and political science. Theory establishment includes two parts: definition of the concept of residents'social- psychological carrying capacity and the establishment of the evaluation index system which can be studied from five aspects: politics, economy, culture, ecological environment and tourism facilities, and society. The FAHP method and application research are introduced in part 4 and part 5 separately. The method of FAHP is mainly used to solve the problems of fuzzy understanding and language evaluation logic, from a fuzzy theory perspective. It is suitable for a qualitative study on building theory of carrying capacity, especially in the evaluation of psychiatric and psychosocial aspects of intangible resources. The application research undertaken in the Asakusa area of Tokyo examined the residents' social-psychological carrying capacity. The results showed that indicators of culture and customs, life-style of residents, garbage and social security have received relative low values, indicating that the development of tourism has already had negative effects on local residents' daily lives. Indicators of restaurant number, public green spaces, and the relationship between residents, awareness of residents' environment protection and the regional visibility have received relative high values. Future studies should focus on the follow aspects: the reality of social development of Japan, improvement of mathematical methods in fuzzy area, studies using computer technologies, mutual influences of different elements and their impacts, non- physical elements' content and its research methods, etc. Future such studies should be conducted using different methods and from various perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]