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Introduction: Tobacco endgame strategies aim to drive down population smoking rates, the success of which can be improved with public buy-in, including from populations with high smoking rates such as alcohol and other drug (AOD) service clients. This study aimed to explore acceptability of tobacco retail and nicotine reduction, and subsidised nicotine vaping to support AOD service clients following a smoking cessation attempt., Methods: We interviewed 31 Australian AOD service clients who currently or previously smoked, following a 12-week randomised trial comparing nicotine replacement therapy with nicotine vaping product (NVP) for smoking cessation. Participants were asked how effectively three scenarios would support tobacco cessation: tobacco retailer reduction, very low-nicotine cigarette standard and subsidised NVP access. We thematically analysed participant views on how each approach would support tobacco abstinence., Results: Tobacco retailer reduction raised concerns about increasing travel and accessing cigarettes from alternate sources, with generally lower acceptability, though a range of perspectives were provided. Reducing nicotine in tobacco products was described as reducing appeal of smoking and potentially increasing illicit purchases of non-reduced nicotine products. Clients of AOD services were highly accepting of subsidised NVP access for tobacco cessation, as this would partly address financial and socioeconomic barriers., Conclusions: Australian tobacco control policy should consider how these approaches impact ease and likelihood of tobacco access by AOD service clients in relation to the general population. Understanding clients' acceptability of tobacco control and endgame measures can inform how to avoid potential unintended consequences for these clients., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The Aotearoa/New Zealand Government is aiming to end the tobacco epidemic and markedly reduce Māori:non-Māori health inequalities by legislating: (1) denicotinisation of retail tobacco, (2) 95% reduction in retail outlets and (c) a tobacco free-generation whereby people born after 2005 are unable to legally purchase tobacco. This paper estimates future smoking prevalence, mortality inequality and health-adjusted life year (HALY) impacts of these strategies., Methods: We used a Markov model to estimate future yearly smoking and vaping prevalence, linked to a proportional multistate life table model to estimate future mortality and HALYs., Results: The combined package of strategies (plus media promotion) reduced adult smoking prevalence from 31.8% in 2022 to 7.3% in 2025 for Māori, and 11.8% to 2.7% for non-Māori. The 5% smoking prevalence target was forecast to be achieved in 2026 and 2027 for Māori males and females, respectively.The HALY gains for the combined package over the population's remaining lifespan were estimated to be 594 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 443 000 to 738 000; 3% discount rate). Denicotinisation alone achieved 97% of these HALYs, the retail strategy 19% and tobacco-free generation 12%.By 2040, the combined package was forcat to reduce the gap in Māori:non-Māori all-cause mortality rates for people 45+ years old by 22.9% (95% UI: 19.9% to 26.2%) for females and 9.6% (8.4% to 11.0%) for males., Conclusion: A tobacco endgame strategy, especially denicotinisation, could deliver large health benefits and dramatically reduce health inequities between Māori and non-Māori in Aotearoa/New Zealand., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Reducing racial and socioeconomic inequities in smoking has been declared a priority for tobacco control in the USA for several decades. Yet despite the rhetoric, these inequities persist and some have actually worsened over time. Although tobacco companies have targeted racially and ethnically diverse and lower-income tobacco users, which substantially contributes to these disparities, less attention has been given to the role of individuals and organisations within the tobacco control movement who have allowed progress in eliminating disparities to stagnate. We examine the failure of tobacco control professionals to ensure the widespread adoption of equity-focused tobacco control strategies. Review of major US tobacco control reports found that the focus on equity often stops after describing inequities in tobacco use. We suggest ways to advance equity in tobacco control in the USA. These recommendations fall across five categories: surveillance, interventions, funding, accountability and addressing root causes. Policy interventions that will have a pro-equity impact on smoking and related disease should be prioritised. Funding should be designated to tobacco control activities focused on eliminating racial and socioeconomic inequities in smoking, and tobacco control programmes should be held accountable for meeting equity-related goals., Competing Interests: Competing interests: KMR has been a paid expert in litigation against tobacco companies. All other authors have no conflicts of interest., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Aim: To summarise the research literature on the impacts or perceptions of policies to end tobacco use at a population level (ie, tobacco endgame policies) among people from eight priority population groups (experiencing mental illness, substance use disorders, HIV, homelessness, unemployment or low incomes, who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer or intersex (LGBTQI+) or who have experienced incarceration)., Methods: Guided by JBI Scoping Review Methodology, we searched six databases for original research examining the impacts or perceptions of 12 tobacco endgame policies among eight priority populations published since 2000. We report the results according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews checklist., Results: Of the 18 included studies, one described perceptions of five endgame policies among people on low incomes in Aotearoa (New Zealand), and 17 focused on the effectiveness or impacts of a very low nicotine content (VLNC) cigarette standard among people experiencing mental illness (n=14), substance use disorders (n=8), low incomes (n=6), unemployment (n=1) or who identify as LGBTQI+ (n=1) in the USA. These studies provide evidence that VLNC cigarettes can reduce tobacco smoking, cigarette cravings, nicotine withdrawal and nicotine dependence among these populations., Conclusions: Most of the tobacco endgame literature related to these priority populations focuses on VLNC cigarettes. Identified research gaps include the effectiveness of endgame policies for reducing smoking, impacts (both expected and unexpected) and policy perceptions among these priority populations., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Massachusetts was the first to implement a state-wide menthol cigarette sales restriction in the USA. Following its implementation in June 2020, evidence showed declines in cigarette sales in Massachusetts; however, changes in nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) product sales are unknown., Methods: This cohort study analysed NRT products sold by US-based retailers available in 26 states from the Nielsen Retail Scanner Data. Outcomes were state-level 4-week aggregate sales of gum, lozenge and patch NRT products converted into pieces per 1000 adults (aged ≥18 years) who smoke cigarettes based on smoking rates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and corresponding population from the US Census Bureau. We used a difference-in-differences method to compare changes in NRT product sales in Massachusetts before (1 January 2017 to 13 June 2020) and after (14 June 2020 to 4 December 2021) the policy with sales in 25 states., Results: The analysis included 1664 observations for each NRT product, with 1170 from before and 494 from after the policy change. The 4-week NRT product sales per 1000 adults who smoke cigarettes in Massachusetts compared with the comparison states increased for gums by 643.11 (95% CI 365.33 to 920.89; p<0.001) pieces or 12.9% and for lozenges by 436.97 (95% CI 292.88 to 581.06; p<0.001) pieces or 17.9% but no statistically significant change in patches after implementing the policy., Conclusion: The increases in sales of gum and lozenge NRT products in Massachusetts after implementing the policy suggest that a nationwide ban on menthol cigarettes can increase NRT product use; therefore, interventions are needed to strengthen cessation support for adults who smoke cigarettes but intend to quit., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: An increasing number of countries are pursuing a tobacco 'endgame'. We sought to determine the combination of measures it would take to achieve a tobacco endgame in the city-state of Singapore., Methods: Using an open-cohort microsimulation model, we estimated the impact of existing measures (quit programmes, tobacco taxes, flavours ban) and more novel measures (very low nicotine cap, tobacco-free generation, raising the minimum legal age to 25 years), and combinations thereof, on smoking prevalence in Singapore over a 50-year horizon. We used Markov Chain Monte Carlo to estimate transition probabilities between the states of never smoker, current smoker and former smoker, updating each individual's state across each year with prior distributions derived from national survey data., Results: Without new measures, smoking prevalence is expected to rebound from 12.2% (2020) to 14.8% (2070). The only scenarios to achieve a tobacco endgame target within a decade are those combining a very low nicotine cap with a flavours ban. A nicotine cap or tobacco-free generation alone also achieve endgame targets, but after 20 and 39 years, respectively. Taxes, quit programmes, a flavours ban and minimum legal age increase do augment the impact of other measures, but even when combined are insufficient to achieve a tobacco endgame target within 50 years., Conclusion: In Singapore, achieving a tobacco endgame within a decade requires a very low nicotine cap coupled with a tobacco flavours ban, although this target can also be achieved in the long term (within 50 years) with a tobacco-free generation., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: We aim to assess the effect of a smoke-free beaches (SFB) intervention in Barcelona on smoking during the 2021 bathing season., Methods: Quasi-experimental pre-post design (pre-intervention period: 15-28 May; post-intervention period: 29 May-12 September). Based on users' profiles and location, four beaches were assigned to the intervention group (IG) and five to the comparison group (CG). The intervention involved: a mayoral decree (29 May), a communication campaign and beach on-site information. We established two 3 m × 3 m transects per beach from the coastline to the promenade. Trained teams collected smoking-related information in the transects through observations and surveys to beach users. Outcomes are as follows: percentage of people reporting witnessing smoking behaviours the last fortnight and percentage of people observed smoking. We calculated and compared prevalence ratios (PRs) with adjusted Poisson regressions., Results: 3751 interviews (1721 IG; 2030 CG) and 1108 observations (498 IG, 610 CG) were carried out. SFB were associated with a significant reduction in the percentage of people reporting witnessing smoking (IG (pre: 87.2%; post: 49.7%); CG (pre: 86.2%; post: 74.1%); PR (95% CI): 0.7 (0.6 to 0.8)); and in the users observed smoking in the beach (IG (pre: 3.8%; post: 3.0%); CG (pre: 2.3%; post: 9.9%); PR (95% CI): 0.3 (0.3 to 0.4)). Satisfaction scores were 8.3 (IG) and 8.1 (CG) out of 10., Conclusion: An SFB intervention is an effective and well-accepted measure to reduce smoking and smokers' visibility. Smoke-free measures should be extended to beaches and other non-regulated outdoor areas., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To systematically review and synthesise the findings of modelling studies on the population impacts of e-cigarette use and to identify potential gaps requiring future investigation., Data Source and Study Selection: Four databases were searched for modelling studies of e-cigarette use on population health published between 2010 and 2023. A total of 32 studies were included., Data Extraction: Data on study characteristics, model attributes and estimates of population impacts including health outcomes and smoking prevalence were extracted from each article. The findings were synthesised narratively., Data Synthesis: The introduction of e-cigarettes was predicted to lead to decreased smoking-related mortality, increased quality-adjusted life-years and reduced health system costs in 29 studies. Seventeen studies predicted a lower prevalence of cigarette smoking. Models that predicted negative population impacts assumed very high e-cigarette initiation rates among non-smokers and that e-cigarette use would discourage smoking cessation by a large margin. The majority of the studies were based on US population data and few studies included factors other than smoking status, such as jurisdictional tobacco control policies or social influence., Conclusions: A population increase in e-cigarette use may result in lower smoking prevalence and reduced burden of disease in the long run, especially if their use can be restricted to assisting smoking cessation. Given the assumption-dependent nature of modelling outcomes, future modelling studies should consider incorporating different policy options in their projection exercises, using shorter time horizons and expanding their modelling to low-income and middle-income countries where smoking rates remain relatively high., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To describe how young adults use electronic cigarettes (electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS)) for smoking cessation and reasons why they may or may not successfully quit smoking., Methods: Longitudinal qualitative data were collected annually from 2017 to 2019 for 25 young adult tobacco users (aged 18-29 years) in California (USA) who used ENDS to quit/reduce smoking. Thematic and trajectory analyses were used to identify key within-person and between-person changes in tobacco/nicotine use over time., Results: Five types of tobacco use transition were identified among baseline dual users of cigarettes and ENDS: sustained dual use without reduced smoking (n=8), transition to exclusive daily ENDS use (n=6), sustained dual use with reduced smoking (n=5), transition back to exclusive smoking (n=4) and transition to neither smoking nor vaping (n=2). Participants' ENDS use behaviour varied over time in terms of vaping quantity and device characteristics (eg, changing nicotine concentrations/flavours, switching between multiple devices). Three themes that related to successfully replacing cigarettes with ENDS were perceived positive physical effects, perceived satisfaction and enjoyment and context changes . Four themes for unsuccessful replacement were perceived negative physical discomforts, perceived addictiveness and harm , unsatisfactory substitution for cigarettes and device malfunction ., Conclusions: Young adults' experiences with using ENDS as a smoking cessation aid were highly variable. Adequate nicotine delivery and perceived safety and benefits contributed to successfully reducing or quitting cigarettes. Providing behavioural counselling and standardising ENDS products may enhance cessation for young adults., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Tobacco endgame is a focal point of discussion at both national and international levels. We aimed to describe efforts related to achieving the tobacco endgame in the Republic of Korea, an exemplar of a country with endgame aspirations, and compare them with the efforts of other nations. We reviewed the tobacco endgame efforts of three nations considered tobacco control leaders: New Zealand (NZ), Australia and Finland. The efforts/attempts of each country were described using an endgame strategy category. The tobacco control leaders had explicit goals to achieve a smoking prevalence of <5% before a target date and had legislation and research centres for tobacco control and/or endgame. NZ is implementing a mixture of conventional and innovative endgame interventions; the others use incremental conventional approaches. In Korea, there has been an attempt to ban the sale and manufacture of combustible cigarettes. The attempt led to the filing of a petition, and a survey of adults showed 70% supported the legislation banning tobacco. The Korean government mentioned a tobacco endgame in a 2019 plan, yet a target and an end date were absent. The 2019 plan in Korea included incremental FCTC strategies. Practices in the leading countries show that legislation and research are key to ending the tobacco epidemic. The MPOWER measures must be strengthened, endgame objectives must be set and bold strategies must be adopted. Key endgame policies include those with evidence of effectiveness, such as retailer reductions., Competing Interests: Competing interests: No, there are no competing interests., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.

Background: Regulation of filter ventilation (FV) has been proposed to reduce misperceptions that ventilation reduces the health risks of smoking. We describe smoking behaviour and exposure after switching to a cigarette brand variant (CBV) with a different FV level., Methods: Wave 1 (2013-2014) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco Use and Health Study was merged with FV levels of participants' CBV and restricted to adults with a usual CBV, smoked daily and included in wave 4 (2016-2017; n=371). Generalised estimation equations method modelled changes in FV and cigarettes per day (CPD), quit interest, total nicotine equivalents (TNE) and total NNAL (biomarker of a tobacco-specific carcinogen). FV change was defined as a change in CBV resulting in a ≥20% increase or decrease in FV. Secondary analyses used FV change based on an increase from <5% to >10% or a decrease from >10% to <5%., Results: A non-significant pattern indicating an increase of 0.97 and 0.49 CPD was observed among those who switched to a CBV and increased FV by ≥20% and from <5% to >10%, respectively. A non-significant pattern indicating a decrease of 1.31 and 1.97 CPD was observed among those who decreased FV by ≥20% and from >10% to <5%, respectively. Changes in quit interest and biomarkers were also non-significant with one exception: greater reduction in TNE among those who decreased from >10% to <5% FV versus no change (-8.51 vs -0.25 nmol/mg creatinine; p=0.0447)., Conclusions: Switching to CBV with lower FV does not appear to increase exposure and may even reduce exposure for some. Additional investigations are recommended to confirm these descriptive findings., Competing Interests: Competing interests: RO’C reports personal fees and non-financial support from WHO and FDA outside the submitted work. MC, PGS and VWR each report payment as an expert witness on behalf of plaintiffs in litigation against cigarette companies outside the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Aims: To examine the relationship between changes in electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use and subsequent cigarette smoking cessation., Methods: Using data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (wave 1-wave 4), we analysed a study cohort of 3014 current adult cigarette smokers at wave 1 who tried to quit during the past 12 months. We categorised changes in e-cigarette use from wave 1 to wave 2 as: daily initiation, non-daily initiation, increase to daily use, increase to non-daily use, stable daily use, stable non-daily use, decrease from daily use, quit non-daily use and non-use. We estimated multivariable logistic regressions on short-term (≥1 month and <12 months) cigarette smoking cessation at wave 3 and long-term (≥12 months) cigarette smoking cessation at wave 4. We conducted sensitivity analyses using alternative study cohorts., Results: Among the study cohort, 2.4% initiated daily, 7.5% initiated non-daily, 1.0% increased to daily, 1.4% increased to non-daily, 1.5% maintained daily, 3.0% maintained non-daily, 2.4% decreased from daily and 3.8% quit non-daily e-cigarette use between waves 1 and 2; 7.9% and 6.9% reported short-term and long-term cigarette smoking cessation. 15.1% of short-term and 16.3% of long-term cigarette quitters used e-cigarettes. Compared with non-users, smokers who initiated daily, increased to daily or quit non-daily e-cigarette use between waves 1 and 2 had higher odds of short-term cigarette smoking cessation at wave 3. These results are robust to different study cohort specifications., Conclusion: The findings suggest a complex relationship between changes in e-cigarette use and subsequent cigarette smoking cessation., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: Electronic cigarettes are addictive and harmful, and flavour is a key factor determining their abuse liability. Both adult smokers and young non-smokers like sweet and fruity flavours in particular. In order to discourage e-cigarette use among youth, the Dutch government announced in 2020 to only allow tobacco flavours in e-liquids. We propose a restrictive list of flavourings that will only enable the production of e-liquids with a tobacco flavour., Methods: We used e-liquid ingredient data notified via the European Common Entry Gate system before the government's announcement. First, we classified all e-liquids into flavour categories, and continued with the set of flavourings present in tobacco e-liquids. Five selection criteria related to prevalence of use, chemical composition, flavour description and health effects were defined to compile a restrictive list of tobacco flavourings., Results: E-liquids marketed as having tobacco flavour contained 503 different flavourings, some with tobacco flavour, but also other (such as sweet) flavours. We excluded (1) 330 flavourings used in <0.5% of e-liquids, (2) 77 used less frequently in tobacco than in all e-liquids, (3) 13 plant extracts, (4) 60 that are sweet or not associated with a tobacco flavour and (5) 7 flavourings with hazardous properties. This resulted in a final list of 16 flavourings., Conclusions: Implementing this restrictive list will likely discourage e-cigarette use among youth, but could also make e-cigarettes less attractive as smoking cessation aid., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: Smoking remains prevalent in many countries despite rigorous tobacco control strategies. The use of Swedish snus, a type of low-nitrosamine smokeless tobacco, has been promoted as a tobacco harm reduction strategy., Data Sources and Study Selection: Three databases were searched for studies that assessed the effectiveness of snus in promoting smoking abstinence. A total of 28 studies were reviewed (5 randomised controlled trials (RCTs), 7 longitudinal and 16 cross-sectional studies)., Data Extraction: Separate meta-analyses were conducted by study type, pooling effect estimates where outcome measures and design were sufficiently comparable. Study details and quality assessment (Risk of Bias 2 for RCTs, Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for observational studies) are provided for each study., Data Synthesis: While the meta-analysis of RCTs did not show a significant association between snus use and smoking cessation (risk ratio (RR)=1.33, 95% CI 0.71 to 2.47 and RR=0.62, 95% CI 0.27 to 1.41), the results of the meta-analysis of longitudinal cohort studies (RR=1.38, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.82, p=0.022) and cross-sectional studies (OR=1.87, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.72, p=0.001) indicated that use of snus was associated with an increased likelihood of quitting or having quit smoking. There was significant heterogeneity in the cross-sectional studies, and leave-one-out analysis indicated that the longitudinal cohort results were driven by one study. Most studies examined were subject to an elevated risk of bias., Conclusion: There is weak evidence for the use of snus for smoking cessation. Better RCTs and longitudinal studies are needed; meanwhile, existing cessation aids may be better placed than snus to promote abstinence., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of e-cigarettes in smoking cessation in the USA from 2017 to 2019, given the 2017 increase in high nicotine e-cigarette sales., Methods: In 2017, the PATH Cohort Study included data on 3578 previous year smokers with a recent quit attempt and 1323 recent former smokers. Respondents reported e-cigarettes or other products used to quit cigarettes and many covariates associated with e-cigarette use. Study outcomes were 12+ months of cigarette abstinence and tobacco abstinence in 2019. We report weighted unadjusted estimates and use propensity score matched analyses with 1500 bootstrap samples to estimate adjusted risk differences (aRD)., Results: In 2017, 12.6% (95% CI 11.3% to 13.9%) of recent quit attempters used e-cigarettes to help with their quit attempt, a decline from previous years. Cigarette abstinence for e-cigarette users (9.9%, 95% CI 6.6% to 13.2%) was lower than for no product use (18.6%, 95% CI 16.0% to 21.2%), and the aRD for e-cigarettes versus pharmaceutical aids was -7.3% (95% CI -14.4 to -0.4) and for e-cigarettes versus any other method was -7.7% (95% CI -12.2 to -3.2). Only 2.2% (95% CI 0.0% to 4.4%) of recent former smokers switched to a high nicotine e-cigarette. Subjects who switched to e-cigarettes appeared to have a higher relapse rate than those who did not switch to e-cigarettes or other tobacco, although the difference was not statistically significant., Conclusions: Sales increases in high nicotine e-cigarettes in 2017 did not translate to more smokers using these e-cigarettes to quit smoking. On average, using e-cigarettes for cessation in 2017 did not improve successful quitting or prevent relapse., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Behavioural research is needed to inform a ban on sales of filtered cigarettes that could reduce plastic waste due to discarded filters. This study reports on differences in perceptions, nicotine dependence and behaviour among participants in a cross-over randomised trial of filtered compared with unfiltered cigarettes., Method: This proof-of-concept study involved 43 people who smoke filtered cigarettes (41.9% women, mean age 36.7 years). Participants were provided 2 weeks' supply of filtered cigarettes, 2 weeks of the same brand of unfiltered cigarettes and randomly assigned to starting conditions. Measures included the Modified Cigarette Evaluation Questionnaire; single-item cigarette perception questions; Fagerström Test of Nicotine Dependence; 7-day cigarette consumption, urinary cotinine and intention to quit. Analyses included linear and ordinal repeated measures mixed-effects models and paired t-tests., Results: Filtered cigarettes were perceived as better tasting, more satisfying, more enjoyable, less aversive, less harsh, less potent and less negatively reinforcing than unfiltered cigarettes. Filtered cigarettes were smoked at a higher rate during the trial than unfiltered cigarettes (p < 0.05). There was no difference in cotinine, dependence or intention to quit between filtered versus unfiltered cigarette conditions (p>0.05)., Conclusion: People who smoke perceived unfiltered cigarettes as having greater nicotine effects and less desirable sensory effects than filtered cigarettes, and they smoked fewer of these during the trial. Although cotinine, dependence and intention to quit were similar for smoking unfiltered and filtered cigarettes in this small trial, results suggest that banning the sale of filtered cigarettes might make smoking less attractive overall to people who smoke., Trial Registration Number: NCT03749876., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Research is inconclusive on the effectiveness of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) as cigarette cessation aids compared with nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) or non-NRT medication. This study compared the cigarette cessation rates for ENDS, NRT and non-NRT medication., Method: Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study wave 3 cigarette-only users who used ENDS, NRT or non-NRT medication (varenicline and bupropion) to quit smoking between wave 3 and 4 were included. 'Cessation' was defined as being a former cigarette smoker in wave 4. χ 2 , logistic regression, and a sensitivity analysis with Bayes factor assessed the association between quitting smoking and method used., Results: Among 6794 cigarette-only users, 532 used ENDS (n=75), NRT (n=289), non-NRT medication (n=68), or a combination of NRT and non-NRT medication (n=100) to quit smoking between wave 3 and 4. The percentages of quitting smoking among those who used ENDS, NRT, non-NRT medication, and a combination of NRT and non-NRT medication were 16.2% (n=14), 16.1% (n=47), 17.7% (n=13), and 14.8% (n=12), respectively (p=0.97). None of the cigarette-only users who used ENDS to quit smoking became ENDS-only users in wave 4; 37.6% became dual users of ENDS and cigarettes., Conclusion: No differences were found when cessation rates of ENDS, NRT or non-NRT medication were compared. Given uncertainty about the long-term health effect of ENDS and the likelihood of becoming dual users, people who smoke and need assistance quitting should be encouraged to use current Food and Drug Administration-approved cessation methods until more effective methods are developed., Competing Interests: Competing interests: TE is a paid consultant in litigation against the tobacco industry and also the electronic cigarette industry and is named on one patent for a device that measures the puffing behaviour of electronic cigarette users and on another patent for a smartphone app that determines electronic cigarette device and liquid characteristics. The other coauthors declare no conflict of interests., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: To estimate the effect of menthol use and transitions in use (switching to or from menthol) on short-term and long-term cessation from cigarette smoking and whether this differed across demographic groups (age, sex, race)., Methods: We compared the probability of 30+ day and 12-month abstinence from cigarette smoking by menthol use status using two cohorts of US adult cigarette smokers who attempted to quit smoking in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (wave 1 to wave 3 and wave 2 to wave 4; n=5759), inverse probability of treatment weighting and adjusted risk ratios (aRRs)., Results: Using menthol (vs non-menthol) prior to a quit attempt decreased the probability of 30+ day abstinence by 28% (aRR=0.78; 95% CI 0.67 to 0.91) and the probability of 12-month abstinence by 53% (aRR=0.65; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.88). Additionally, switching from menthol (vs maintaining menthol use) increased the probability of 30+ day abstinence by 58% (aRR=1.58; 95% CI 1.00 to 2.50) and the probability of 12-month abstinence by 97% (aRR=1.86; 95% CI 0.92 to 3.74). Switching to menthol (vs maintaining non-menthol use) was associated with a lower probability of 30+ day (aRR=0.70; 95% CI 0.42 to 1.16) and 12-month abstinence (aRR=0.64; 95% CI 0.30 to 1.36), but these associations were imprecise. The effects of menthol use on impaired quitting were slightly larger for non-Hispanic Black smokers, but not different for other demographic groups., Conclusion: These results demonstrate that menthol impaired menthol smokers' attempts to quit smoking but switching from menthol improved success. This suggests that removing menthol may improve menthol smokers' success during quit attempts., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Population studies in mostly high-income countries have shown that pictorial health warnings (PHWs) are much more effective than text-only warnings. This is the first quasi-experimental evaluation of the introduction of PHWs in Africa, comparing the change from text-only to PHWs in Kenya to the unchanged text-only health warning in Zambia., Methods: Data were from International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in Kenya (n=1495), and Zambia (n=1628), cohort surveys of nationally representative samples of adult smokers in each country. The ITC Kenya Survey was conducted in 2012 and 2018 (2 years after the 2016 introduction of three PHWs). The ITC Zambia Survey was conducted in 2012 and 2014 with no change to the single text-only warning. Validated indicators of health warning effectiveness (HWIs) (salience: noticing, reading; cognitive reactions: thinking about health risks, thinking about quitting; and behavioural reactions: avoiding warnings; forgoing a cigarette because of the warnings), and a summary measure-the Labels Impact Index (LII)-measured changes in warning impact between the two countries., Results: PHWs implemented in Kenya led to a significant increase in all HWIs and the LII, compared with the text-only warning in Zambia. The failure to implement PHWs in Zambia led to a substantial missed opportunity to increase warning effectiveness (eg, an estimated additional 168 392 smokers in Zambia would have noticed the warnings)., Conclusions: The introduction of PHWs in Kenya substantially increased the effectiveness of warnings. These results provide strong empirical support for 34 African countries that still have text-only warnings, of which 31 are Parties of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and are thus obligated to implement PHWs., Competing Interests: Competing interests: GTF has served as an expert witness on behalf of governments in litigation involving the tobacco industry., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: Identify and review the body of tobacco research literature that self-identified as using machine learning (ML) in the analysis., Data Sources: MEDLINE, EMABSE, PubMed, CINAHL Plus, APA PsycINFO and IEEE Xplore databases were searched up to September 2020. Studies were restricted to peer-reviewed, English-language journal articles, dissertations and conference papers comprising an empirical analysis where ML was identified to be the method used to examine human experience of tobacco. Studies of genomics and diagnostic imaging were excluded., Study Selection: Two reviewers independently screened the titles and abstracts. The reference list of articles was also searched. In an iterative process, eligible studies were classified into domains based on their objectives and types of data used in the analysis., Data Extraction: Using data charting forms, two reviewers independently extracted data from all studies. A narrative synthesis method was used to describe findings from each domain such as study design, objective, ML classes/algorithms, knowledge users and the presence of a data sharing statement. Trends of publication were visually depicted., Data Synthesis: 74 studies were grouped into four domains: ML-powered technology to assist smoking cessation (n=22); content analysis of tobacco on social media (n=32); smoker status classification from narrative clinical texts (n=6) and tobacco-related outcome prediction using administrative, survey or clinical trial data (n=14). Implications of these studies and future directions for ML researchers in tobacco control were discussed., Conclusions: ML represents a powerful tool that could advance the research and policy decision-making of tobacco control. Further opportunities should be explored., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: E-cigarette users typically initiate vaping with flavoured e-liquids. People who vape flavours tend to underestimate the harm of vaping. We examined the inter-relationship between flavour preference, vaping for cessation purposes, e-cigarette dependence, e-cigarette harm perception and purchase/use intention, given a hypothetical flavour ban. We hypothesised that non-tobacco flavour preference and vaping for cessation would be negatively associated with harm perception of e-cigarettes and intention to continue vaping if a flavour ban occurred and that these effects would be mediated by e-cigarette dependence., Methods: From July 2019 to March 2020, we conducted intercept interviews with 276 customers at 44 vape shops in California. The predictor variables were flavour preference and vaping for cessation. The outcome variables were harm perception of e-cigarettes and intention to purchase/use, given a hypothetical flavour ban. Multilevel structural equation modelling tested whether e-cigarette dependence mediates the effects of flavour preference on hypothetical continued vaping and purchase., Results: Those who preferred flavours showed significantly lower intention to purchase e-liquids (β=-0.28, p<0.001) and to continue vaping (β=-0.17, p=0.001), given a hypothetical flavour ban. Those who vaped for smoking cessation indicated greater intention to purchase e-liquid (β=0.10, p=0.016) and to continue vaping (β=0.17, p=0.001), given a hypothetical flavour ban. E-cigarette dependence significantly mediated these effects (ps<0.04)., Discussion: Flavour preference was negatively related to intention to continue to vape within a hypothetical flavour ban. Our results also highlight the importance of e-cigarette dependence and use of e-cigarettes as smoking cessation methods. Implications for future flavour bans are discussed., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To investigate the perceptions of young people and adults, smokers and non-smokers about the current set of innovations introduced in 2018 into the Brazilian tobacco products' health warnings., Methods: Twenty focus groups were conducted in five state capitals in Brazil. The participants (n=163) were segmented by smoking status, age (15-17 years, 18-55 years) and social grade (C, D-E classes) to examine cigarette packaging and explore the participants' perceptions of health warnings., Results: Health warnings capture attention, eliciting apprehension, fear, disgust and concern about the negative consequences of cigarette consumption. The 2018 Brazil health warnings are spontaneously recalled by participants, even without the presence of cigarette packages. However, the analysis also reveals the challenges of overcoming communication barriers and distorted interpretations, especially among smokers. The inclusion of direct and provocative stimuli, such as the use of the word 'you', attracts attention and creates more proximity to the recipient of the message. The results also highlight the interest and fear elicited by warnings on toxic constituents and the importance of using contrasting colours in warnings, which differentiate them from the colours of cigarette packs., Conclusion: Introducing innovative components in health warnings can catch consumers' attention but considering that the interviewees encountered difficulties interpreting textual warnings about toxic constituents in cigarettes, the study reinforces the importance of adopting direct language and pictures, instead of text, which can visually transmit the warning messages and the use of specific wording that generates proximity between the emitter and receiver., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background Programmes for collective smoking cessation, based on the British model Stoptober, are proposed by public health units in many countries. There is a need for data estimating the rate at which participants in these programmes are successful in quitting smoking. We report a prospective study carried out as part of a large-scale collective cessation programme conducted in Switzerland in 2017. Methods 1112 participants among the 7008 smokers enrolled in the collective cessation programme were recruited before the start of the attempt. Continuous abstinence was measured 10 days, 3 months and 6 months after the start of the attempt. Participants who dropped out at follow-up were considered to have failed the attempt (worst-case scenario). Results The continuous abstinence rate was at least 37.9% at 10-day follow-up, 18.8% at 3-month follow-up and 13.1% at 6-month follow-up. Similar levels of continuous abstinence as the worst-case scenario were found in sensitivity analyses including those whose quit attempt started before the beginning of the programme and where multiple imputation was used to replace dropouts. Sensitivity analyses using complete cases or an indicator of abstinence which allows occasional lapses found around double the abstinence rates. Conclusions Our results support the potential usefulness of large-scale collective cessation campaigns and suggest that such programmes based on social networks are promising areas for future smoking cessation programme activity., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To evaluate the impact of menthol cigarette bans in seven Canadian provinces between 2016 and 2018., Methods: Longitudinal data from the Canadian arm of the 2016 and 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. 1098 non-menthol and 138 menthol smokers were surveyed pre-menthol and post-menthol cigarette bans. Multivariate logistic regression models examined associations between pre-post ban changes in smoking behaviour, including differences between menthol and non-menthol smokers in quit attempts and quitting., Results: At follow-up, 59.1% of pre-ban menthol smokers switched to non-menthol cigarettes; 21.5% quit smoking and 19.5% still smoked menthols, primarily purchased from First Nations reserves. Menthol smokers were more likely than non-menthol smokers to make a quit attempt (adjusted OR (aOR)=1.61, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.51), and to remain quit (aOR=2.30, 95% CI 1.06 to 5.01). Menthol smokers did not differ significantly from non-menthol smokers in quit success (aOR=1.72, 95% CI 0.98 to 3.01); however, daily menthol smokers were more likely than daily non-menthol smokers to quit (aOR=2.21, 95% CI 1.15 to 4.24), and daily menthol smokers who quit before the ban were more likely than daily non-menthol smokers to remain quit (aOR=2.81, 95% CI 1.15 to 6.85)., Conclusions: Although menthol smokers were most likely to switch to non-menthol cigarettes, the menthol ban was also significantly associated with higher rates of quit attempts and quit success among menthol smokers compared with non-menthol smokers, and may have helped to prevent relapse among menthol smokers who had quit smoking before the ban. Results confirm and extend evaluation of Ontario's menthol ban across provinces covering 83% of the Canadian population., Competing Interests: Competing interests: GTF has served as an expert witness on behalf of governments in litigation involving the tobacco industry. KMC has served as a paid expert witness in litigation filed against cigarette manufacturers., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Tobacco dependence follows a chronic and relapsing course, but most treatment programmes are short. Extended care has been shown to improve outcomes. Examining use patterns for longer term programmes can quantify resource requirements and identify opportunities for improving retention., Methods: We analyse 38 094 primary care treatment episodes from a multisite smoking cessation programme in Ontario, Canada that provides free nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) and counselling. We calculate distributional measures of weeks of NRT used, clinical visits attended and total length of care. We then divide treatment courses into four exclusive categories and fit a multinomial logistic regression model to measure associations with participant characteristics, using multiple imputation to address missing data., Results: Time in treatment (median=50 days), visits (median=3) and weeks NRT used (median=8) were well below the maximum available. Of all programme enrolments, 28.8% (95% CI=28.3% to 29.3%) were single contacts, 31.3% (30.8% to 31.8%) lasted <12 weeks, 19.2% (18.8% to 19.6%) were ≥12 weeks with an 8-week interruption and 20.7% (20.3%-21.1%) were ≥12 weeks without interruptions. Care use was most strongly associated with participant age and whether the nicotine patch was dispensed at the first visit., Conclusion: Treatment use results imply that the marginal costs of extending treatment programmes are relatively low. The prevalence of single contacts supports additional engagement efforts at the initial visit, while interruptions in care highlight the ability of longer term care to address relapse. Results show that use of the nicotine patch is associated with retention in care, and that improving engagement of younger patients should be a priority., Competing Interests: Competing interests: PS has the following general disclosures to report: grants and/or salary and/or research support from the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Health Canada, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-term Care (MOHLTC), Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), Canadian Centre on Substance Use and Addiction, Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), Ontario Lung Association, Medical Psychiatry Alliance, Extensions for Community Healthcare Outcomes, Canadian Cancer Society Research Institute (CCSRI), Cancer Care Ontario, Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, Ontario Brain Institute, McLaughlin Centre, Academic Health Sciences Centre, Workplace Safety and Insurance Board, National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Association of Faculties of Medicine of Canada. PS also reports receiving funding and/or honoraria from the following commercial organisations: Pfizer/Canada, Shoppers Drug Mart, Bhasin Consulting Fund, Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute, ABBVie and Bristol-Myers Squibb. Further, PS reports receiving consulting fees from Pfizer Canada, Evidera, Johnson & Johnson Group of Companies, Medcan Clinic, Inflexxion, V-CC Systems, MedPlan Communications, Kataka Medical Communications, Miller Medical Communications, Nvision Insight Group and Sun Life Financial. Through an open tender process Johnson & Johnson, Novartis and Pfizer are vendors of record for providing smoking cessation pharmacotherapy, free or discounted, for research studies in which PS is the principal investigator or co-investigator., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) offers guidance on evidence-based policies to reduce tobacco consumption and its burden of disease. Recently, it has provided guidance for alternative tobacco products, such as the waterpipe. Waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) is prevalent worldwide and policies to address it need to take into consideration its specificities as a mode of smoking. In parallel, a growing body of literature points to the potential of evidence-based tobacco control policies to increase health inequities. This paper updates a previous global review of waterpipe tobacco policies and adds an equity lens to assess their impact on health inequities., Methods: We reviewed policies that address WTS in 90 countries, including 10 with state-owned tobacco companies; 47 were included in our final analysis. We relied primarily on the Tobacco-Free Kids organisation's Tobacco Control Laws website, providing access to tobacco control laws globally. We categorised country tobacco policies by the clarity with which they defined and addressed waterpipe tobacco in relation to nine FCTC articles. We used the PROGRESS (Place of residence, Race/ethnicity/culture/language, Occupation, Gender/sex, Religion, Education, Socioeconomic status and Social capital) framework for the equity analysis, by reviewing equity considerations referenced in the policies of each country and including prevalence data disaggregated by equity axis and country where available., Results: Our results revealed very limited attention to waterpipe policies overall, and to equity in such policies, and highlight the complexity of regulating WTS. We recommend that WTS policies and surveillance centre equity as a goal., Conclusions: Our recommendations can inform global policies to reduce WTS and its health consequences equitably across population groups., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use to subsequent smoking relationship in adolescents has received much attention. Whether an intervention to reduce smoking initiation attenuated this relationship was assessed., Method: Data were from 3994 adolescent never smokers (aged 13-14 years at baseline) as part of a cluster randomised controlled trial. Self-report measures of smoking, e-cigarette use and covariates were assessed and used to predict ever smoked cigarettes, any recent tobacco smoking and regularly smoked cigarettes at 24-month follow-up., Results: Baseline ever use of e-cigarettes was associated with ever smoked cigarettes (OR=4.03, 95% CI 3.33 to 4.88; controlling for covariates, OR=2.78, 95% CI 2.20 to 3.51), any recent tobacco smoking (OR=3.38, 95% CI 2.72 to 4.21; controlling for covariates, OR=2.17, 95% CI 1.76 to 2.69) and regularly smoked cigarettes (OR=3.60, 95% CI 2.35 to 5.51; controlling for covariates, OR=1.27, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.39) at follow-up. For ever smoked cigarettes only, the impact of e-cigarette use was attenuated in the intervention (OR=1.83) compared with control (OR=4.53) condition. For ever smoked cigarettes and any recent tobacco smoking, the impact of e-cigarette use was attenuated among those with friends who smoked (OR=2.05 (ever smoked); 1·53 (any tobacco use)) compared with those without friends who smoked (OR=3.32 (ever smoked); 2·17 (any tobacco use))., Conclusions: This is one of the first studies to show that e-cigarette use was robustly associated with measures of smoking over 24 months and the first to show an intervention to attenuate the relationship. Further research with a broader age range of adolescents is required., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Low-income smokers experience greater difficulty in quitting smoking than do other smokers. Providing financial incentives for treatment engagement increases smoking cessation success. This study models the cost-effectiveness of varying levels of financial incentives to maximise return on investment (ROI) for engaging low-income Medicaid recipients who smoke to take calls from a tobacco quit line., Methods: Participants (N=1900) were recruited from May 2013 to June 2015 through quit line-based (n=980), clinic-based (n=444) or community-based referrals (n=476) into the Wisconsin Medicaid Quit Line Incentive project. Incentive (n=948) and control group participants (n=952) received $30 versus $0 per call, respectively, for taking up to five Wisconsin Tobacco Quit Line (WTQL) calls. Cost-effectiveness analyses estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for alternative financial incentives for engagement with WTQL calls. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was employed to determine an optimal strategy for financial incentives to minimise the cost per individual who quit smoking., Results: Using fixed payments, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $2316 per smoker who quit in the randomised trial decreased to $2150 per smoker who quit when the incentives were modelled at $20 per each of five WTQL calls taken. Using variable payments, the minimal cost per additional smoker who quit was $2125 when incentives for the first four WTQL calls were set at $20, and the financial payment for the fifth WTQL call was set at $70., Conclusions: Modelling suggests that financial incentives in the amount of $20 per call for taking the first four quit line calls and $70 for taking a fifth quit line call maximise ROI to engage low-income smokers with evidence-based smoking cessation treatment., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act provided the US Food and Drug Administration authority to regulate tobacco products using a population health standard. Models have been developed to estimate the population health impacts of tobacco initiation, cessation and relapse transitions. Models should be informed by high-quality, longitudinal data to estimate these constructs. Simulation studies have generated data to predict the impact of various tobacco control interventions, including the influence of regulations on tobacco use behaviours and health. The purpose of this paper is to provide a high-level conceptual overview for understanding tobacco transition behaviours and correlates of these behaviours using data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a US nationally representative longitudinal tobacco study of about 46 000 persons aged 12+ years. The papers that follow in this journal issue build and expand on this conceptual overview using data from the first three waves of the PATH Study. These papers describe use patterns of different tobacco products and their correlates, and can serve as foundations for more in-depth papers that will help the research community better understand the population health impacts and drivers of different tobacco use patterns., Competing Interests: Competing interests: WMC reports long-term stock holdings in General Electric Company, 3M Company, and Pfizer Incorporated, unrelated to this manuscript. No financial disclosures were reported by the other authors of this paper., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The English National Health Service NHS Stop Smoking Services (SSS), established in 2001, were the first such services in the world. An appropriate evaluation of the SSS has national and international significance. This modelling study sought to evaluate the impact of the SSS on changes in smoking prevalence in England., Methods: A discrete time state-transition model was developed to simulate changes in smoking status among the adult population in England during 2001-2016. Input parameters were based on data from national statistics, population representative surveys and published literature. The main outcome was the percentage point reduction in smoking prevalence attributable to the SSS., Results: Smoking prevalence was reduced by 10.8 % in absolute terms during 2001-2016 in England, and 15.3 % of the reduction could be attributable to the SSS. The percentage point reduction in smoking prevalence each year was on average 0.72%, and 0.11 % could be attributable to the SSS. The proportion of SSS supported quit attempts increased from 5.5 % in 2001, to as high as 18.9 % in 2011, and then reduced to 8.2 % in 2016. Quit attempts with SSS support had a higher success rate than those without SSS support (15.1% vs 11.3%). Smoking prevalence in England continued to decline after the SSS was much reduced from 2013 onwards., Conclusions: Approximately 15% of the percentage point reduction in smoking prevalence during 2001-2016 in England may be attributable to the NHS SSS, although uncertainty remains regarding the actual impact of the formal smoking cessation services., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: Since the WHO released the M onitoring tobacco use and tobacco control policies; P rotecting from the dangers of tobacco smoke; O ffering help to quit tobacco; W arning the public about the dangers; E nforcing bans on advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and R aising tobacco taxes (MPOWER) policy package to assist nations with implementing the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), 88 countries have adopted at least one MPOWER policy at the highest level as of 2014. Building on previous evaluations, we estimated the reduction in smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) from all policies newly adopted at the highest level between 2014 and 2016., Methods: For each nation that implemented highest level policies, t he difference in policy effect sizes from previously validated SimSmoke models for the policies in effect in 2014 and 2016 were multiplied by the number of smokers in that nation to derive the reduction in the number of smokers. Based on research that half of all smokers die from smoking, we derived SADs averted., Findings: In total, 43 nations adopted at least one highest-level MPOWER policy between 2014 and 2016, resulting in 14.6 million fewer SADs. The largest number of SADs averted were due to stronger health warnings (13.3 million), followed by raising taxes (0.6 million), increased marketing bans (0.4 million), smoke-free air laws (0.3 million) and cessation interventions (2500)., Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the continuing public health impact of tobacco control policies adopted globally since the FCTC, and highlight the importance of more countries adopting MPOWER policies at the highest level to reduce the global burden of tobacco use., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: Restricting tobacco sales to pharmacies only, including the provision of cessation advice, has been suggested as a potential measure to hasten progress towards the tobacco endgame. We aimed to quantify the impacts of this hypothetical intervention package on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs for a country with an endgame goal: New Zealand (NZ)., Methods: We used two peer-reviewed simulation models: 1) a dynamic population forecasting model for smoking prevalence and 2) a closed cohort multi-state life-table model for future health gains and costs by sex, age and ethnicity. Greater costs due to increased travel distances to purchase tobacco were treated as an increase in the price of tobacco. Annual cessation rates were multiplied with the effect size for brief opportunistic cessation advice on sustained smoking abstinence., Results: The intervention package was associated with a reduction in future smoking prevalence, such that by 2025 prevalence was 17.3%/6.8% for Māori (Indigenous)/non-Māori compared to 20.5%/8.1% projected under no intervention. The measure was furthermore estimated to accrue 41 700 discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 33 500 to 51 600) over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lives. Of these QALYs gained, 74% were due to the provision of cessation advice over and above the limiting of sales to pharmacies., Conclusions: This work provides modelling-level evidence that the package of restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice in these settings can accelerate progress towards the tobacco endgame, and achieve large population health benefits and cost-savings. :., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: In Colombia, smoking is the second leading modifiable risk factor for premature mortality. In December 2016, Colombia passed a major tax increase on tobacco products in an effort to decrease smoking and improve population health. While tobacco taxes are known to be highly effective in reducing the prevalence of smoking, they are often criticised as being regressive in consumption. This analysis attempts to assess the distributional impact (across socioeconomic groups) of the new tax on selected health and financial outcomes., Methods: This study builds on extended cost-effectiveness analysis methods to study the new tobacco tax in Colombia, and estimates, over a time period of 20 years and across income quintiles of the current urban population (80% of the country population), the years of life gained with smoking cessation and the increased tax revenues, all associated with a 70% relative price increase of the pack of cigarettes. Where possible, we use parameters that vary by income quintile, including price elasticity of demand for cigarettes (average of -0.44 estimated from household survey data)., Findings: Over 20 years, the tax increase would lead to an estimated 191 000 years of life gained among Colombia's current urban population, with the largest gains among the bottom two income quintiles. The additional annual tax revenues raised would amount to about 2%-4% of Colombia's annual government health expenditure, with the poorest quintiles bearing the smallest tax burden increase., Conclusions: The tobacco tax increase passed by Colombia has substantial implications for the country's population health and financial well-being, with large benefits likely to accrue to the two poorest quintiles of the population., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The Healthy China 2030 strategy sets ambitious targets for China's policy-makers, including a decrease in the smoking rate from 27.7% in 2015 to 20% by 2030. China has made progress on tobacco control in recent years, but many key measures remain underused. This study explores the potential for full implementation of these measures to achieve the targeted reduction in smoking by 2030., Methods: First, a 'business as usual' scenario for China's cigarette market was developed based only on underlying economic parameters. Second, non-price tobacco control measures were then added assuming they are fully implemented by 2030. Third, excise per pack was raised to a level that would increase the real price of cigarettes by 50% in 2030., Findings: Under the business as usual scenario, the rate of smoking falls to around 26.6% in 2030. When non-price measures are included, the rate of smoking falls to 22.0% (20.9%~23.1%). Thus, non-price measures alone are unlikely to achieve the Healthy China target. Under the third scenario, excise per pack was roughly doubled in 2030 in order to increase real cigarette prices by 50%. The rate of smoking then falls to 19.7% (18.2%~21.3%), reflecting 78 million (59~97 million) fewer smokers compared with 2016. In addition, real excise revenue from cigarettes increases by 21% (-3%~47%) compared with 2016., Conclusion: Significantly higher tobacco taxes will be needed to achieve Healthy China 2030 target for reduced smoking even after the implementation of other tobacco control measures., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To determine if Allen Carr's Easyway to Stop Smoking (AC) was superior to Quit.ie in a randomised clinical trial (RCT)., Setting: Single centre, open RCT, general population based., Participants: 300 adult smokers, 18 years plus, minimum 5 cigarettes daily, and English speaking. AC, 151 (females 44.4%) and Quit.ie, 149 (females 45.6%), mean age 44 years. outcomes for all 300 were analysed (intention-to-treat). Recruited through advertisement from July 2015 to February 2016., Intervention: Randomly assigned to AC (n=151) and Quit.ie (n=149), matched for age, sex and education. Block randomisation, enrolment and follow-up at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Primary aim was to determine if AC had higher quit rates than Quit.ie service at 3 months. Secondary aims: quit rates at 1, 6 and 12 months and analysis of associated factors including weight. AC consisted of a 5-hour seminar, in a group setting. Quit.ie is an online portal for smoking cessation., Results: AC had higher quit rates at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. AC: 38%, (n=57), 27% (n=40), 23% (n=35), 22% (n=33) vs Quit.ie: 20% (n=30), 15% (n=22), 15% (n=23), 11% (n=17), respectively (all p values <0.05). Logistic regression AC vs Quit.ie, OR 2.26 (95% CI 1.22 to 4.21) p value=0.01. Weight gain 3.8 kg in AC vs 1.8 kg in Quit.ie (p value <0.05)., Conclusions: All AC quit rates were superior to Quit.ie, outcomes were comparable with established interventions., Trial Registration Number: ISRCTN12951013. Recruitment July 2015-February 2016., Competing Interests: Competing interests: LC was involved in the Cease of NRT conducted on behalf of the ERS by the Occupational and Epidemiology Assembly and with the sponsorship of Pharmacia & Upjohn, Helsingborg, Sweden. He has served on advisory Boards for Pfizer and has in the past received research grants from Pfizer for Tobacco Control projects but none for smoking cessation. SK and SL declare no competing interest., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Although Egypt places four generic pictorial health warnings (PHWs) on the front and back half of waterpipe tobacco packs (WTPs), waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) rates have continued to rise. It has been suggested that PHWs would be more salient if placed on the waterpipe device itself. This qualitative study explored how participants perceived the effects placing PHWs on waterpipe devices would have on warning salience and uptake or quitting of WTS., Methods: We conducted 10 focus groups and 10 in-depth interviews with 90 adult waterpipe smokers and non-smokers, men and women, who lived in rural, semi-urban and urban regions of Egypt. We presented participants with four novel PHWs of different sizes positioned randomly at four locations on a waterpipe device (the glass body, metal holder, mouthpiece or hose), one at a time. At each session, participants viewed a PHW on all four locations. Novel warnings were shown on plain labels with a dark uniform background and featured pictures, text and the quitline number. Transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis., Results: Participants thought placing PHWs on waterpipe devices might increase salience, prevent WTS initiation or trigger quit attempts; they favoured placing PHWs on the glass body, mouthpiece or waterpipe hose. Both waterpipe smoker and non-smoker participants thought these potential effects would affect non-smokers or non-established smokers more than established waterpipe users., Conclusions: Our exploratory study suggests that PHWs featured prominently on waterpipe devices could potentially deter experimentation with waterpipe tobacco products and promote cessation, especially among non-established users., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2019. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Background: The US Food and Drug Administration recently issued an advanced notice of proposed rule-making for reducing the nicotine content in cigarettes to a minimally addictive level. Very little is known about whether use of very low nicotine content (VLNC) cigarettes affects support for a nicotine reduction policy., Objective: This study examined the effects of using VLNC versus usual brand (UB) cigarettes on support for a nicotine reduction policy and determined whether participant characteristics and responses to VLNC cigarettes were associated with policy support., Methods: Participants from a cigarette trial who were assigned to either 0.4 mg nicotine/g tobacco research cigarettes or their UB for 6 weeks were asked about their support for the policy. χ 2 tests were used to compare support for the policy between cigarette conditions and logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess covariates associated with policy support., Findings: Policy support did not differ by condition. After 6 weeks of using VLNC cigarettes, 50% of participants supported the policy, 26% opposed and 24% responded 'Don't Know'. Support was higher among those adherent to smoking only VLNC cigarettes (65%) compared with those who were non-adherent (44%). Older participants and those interested in quitting had increased odds of support. Cigarette satisfaction, perceived harm and perceived nicotine content were not significantly associated with support., Conclusions: Smoking VLNC cigarettes did not affect support for a nicotine reduction policy. Understanding predictors of policy support and opposition will help public health officials to maximise the public health acceptance and impact of this policy (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01681875 Post-Results)., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: Smoking rates have been compared with a spring, requiring continuous downward pressure against protobacco forces, rather than a screw, which once driven down stays down. Quality antitobacco mass media campaigns put downward pressure on smoking rates. The suspension of a major Australian state campaign provided a natural experiment to assess effects on smoking. Furthermore, we document the positive influence of robust monitoring and mature advocacy on the political decision to reinstate funding. We also document the misuse by industry of South Australian smoking data from the period between Australia's implementation and subsequent evaluation of plain packaging., Methods: A time series analysis was used to examine monthly smoking prevalence trends at each of four intervention points: (A) commencement of high-intensity mass media campaign (August 2010); (B) introduction of plain packaging (December 2012), (C) defunding of campaign (July 2013); and (D) reinstatement of moderate-intensity campaign (July 2014)., Findings: The suspension of the antitobacco campaign was disruptive to achieving smoking prevalence targets. There was an absence of a downward monthly smoking prevalence trajectory during the non-campaign period. Moreover, there was a significant decline in smoking prevalence during the period of high-intensity advertising, which continued after the introduction of plain packaging laws, and at the recommencement of campaign activity., Conclusions: While the observed declines in smoking prevalence are likely due to a combination of interventions and cannot be attributed exclusively to antitobacco advertising, the results reinforce the political decision to reinstate the campaign and demonstrate the need for maintained investment to keep downward pressure on smoking rates., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2019. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Background: The prevalence of cigarette smoking is significantly higher among those living at or below the federal poverty level. Cell phone-based interventions among such populations have the potential to reduce smoking rates and be cost-effective., Methods: We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of three smoking cessation interventions: Standard Care (SC) (brief advice to quit, nicotine replacement therapy and self-help written materials), Enhanced Care (EC) (SC plus cell phone-delivered messaging) and Intensive Care (IC) (EC plus cell phone-delivered counselling). Quit rates were obtained from Project ACTION (Adult smoking Cessation Treatment through Innovative Outreach to Neighborhoods). We evaluated shorter-term outcomes of cost per quit and long-term outcomes using cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY)., Results: For men, EC cost an additional $541 per quit vs SC; however, IC cost an additional $5232 per quit vs EC. For women, EC was weakly dominated by IC-IC cost an additional $1092 per quit vs SC. Similarly, for men, EC had incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $426 per QALY gained vs SC; however, IC resulted in ICER of $4127 per QALY gained vs EC. For women, EC was weakly dominated; the ICER of IC vs SC was $1251 per QALY gained. The ICER was below maximum acceptable willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000 per QALY under all alternative modelling assumptions., Discussion: Cell phone interventions for low socioeconomic groups are a cost-effective use of healthcare resources. Intensive Care was the most cost-effective strategy both for men and women., Trial Registration Number: NCT00948129; Results., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2019. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Background: The landscape of smoking cessation may have changed in Europe recently., Objectives: To identify changes in use of smoking cessation assistance in the European Union (EU) and factors associated with use of cessation assistance., Methods: Data from the 2012 (n=9921) and 2017 (n=9489) waves of the Eurobarometer survey were used. Self-reported use of smoking cessation assistance was assessed among smokers who had ever tried to quit and former smokers. Changes in use of each type of assistance were assessed using logistic regression., Results: Among current and former smokers, those who had ever attempted to quit without assistance increased from 70.3% (2012) to 74.8% (2017). Current smokers were more likely to have used any assistance compared with former smokers (P<0.001). Use of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation assistance increased (3.7% to 9.7%)%), while use of pharmacotherapy (14.6% to 11.1%)%) and smoking cessation services (7.5% to 5.0%)%) declined. Younger people were more likely to have reported e-cigarette use for smoking cessation but less likely to have used a cessation service. Individuals living in countries with comprehensive smoking cessation policies were more likely to have used any cessation assistance (adjusted OR (aOR)=1.78; 95% CI 1.15 to 2.76), pharmacotherapy (aOR=3.44; 95% CI 1.78 to 6.66) and smoking cessation services (aOR=2.27; 95% CI 1.27 to 4.06) compared with those living in countries with weak smoking cessation policies., Conclusions: These findings highlight the need for approaches that ensure that smokers get support to quit smoking across the EU. The question of whether the availability of e-cigarettes will displace other methods, and the impact of such a displacement, should be closely evaluated., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2019. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Background: Mass media campaigns to encourage smoking cessation have been shown to be effective in a context of comprehensive tobacco control programme. The effectiveness of antismoking ads that evoke negative emotions remains unclear, in particular in countries with high smoking prevalence and among smokers with low perceived susceptibility, low self-efficacy or who are not users of smoking cessation services., Objective: To evaluate short-term and long-term effects of a 1-month French national highly emotional media campaign, with a focus on these specific targets., Design: A 6-month longitudinal survey by Internet. A sample of 3000 smokers were interviewed before the media campaign (T0). They were contacted again just after (T1) and 6 months after the campaign (T2)., Outcomes: Perceived susceptibility to the risks of smoking, self-efficacy to quit smoking, use of smoking cessation services (quitline and website) and 7-day quitting., Methods: The analysis was carried out on 2241 individuals who answered at T1 and T2. Multiple logistic regressions were computed to test the association between the change in each outcome at T1 and T2 and the level of exposure based on self-reported recall., Results: Self-reported recall was associated with an increase in perceived susceptibility and with use of cessation services. Campaign recall was also associated with higher 7-day quitting immediately after the campaign (OR=1.8 (1.0 to 3.2), P<0.05)., Conclusions: Fear-appeal mass media campaigns can be effective in encouraging cessation among smokers in a country with high smoking prevalence (France), but should be accompanied by convincing self-efficacy messages., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Background: Recently, the US Institute of Medicine has proposed that raising the minimum age for tobacco purchasing/sales to 21 years would likely lead to reductions in smoking behavior among young people. Surprisingly few studies, however, have assessed the potential impacts of minimum-age tobacco restrictions on youth smoking., Objective: To estimate the impacts of Canadian minimum age for tobacco sales (MATS) laws on youth smoking behaviour., Design: A regression-discontinuity design, using seven merged cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey, 2000-2014., Participants: Survey respondents aged 14-22 years (n=98 320)., Exposure: Current Canadian MATS laws are 18 years in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, the Yukon and Northwest Territories, and 19 years of age in the rest of the country., Main Outcomes: Current, occasional and daily smoking status; smoking frequency and intensity; and average monthly cigarette consumption., Results: In comparison to age groups slightly younger than the MATS, those just older had significant and abrupt increases immediately after the MATS in the prevalence of current smokers (absolute increase: 2.71%; 95% CI 0.70% to 4.80%; P=0.009) and daily smokers (absolute increase: 2.43%; 95% CI 0.74% to 4.12%; P=0.005). Average past-month cigarette consumption within age groups increased immediately following the MATS by 18% (95% CI 3% to 39%; P=0.02). There was no evidence of significant increases in smoking intensity for daily or occasional smokers after release from MATS restrictions., Conclusion: The study provides relevant evidence supporting the effectiveness of Canadian MATS laws for limiting smoking among tobacco-restricted youth., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Background: Mass media campaigns and quitlines are both important distinct components of tobacco control programmes around the world. But when used as an integrated package, the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness are not well described. We therefore aimed to estimate the health gain, health equity impacts and cost-utility of the package of a national quitline service and its promotion in the mass media., Methods: We adapted an established Markov and multistate life-table macro-simulation model. The population was all New Zealand adults in 2011. Effect sizes and intervention costs were based on past New Zealand quitline data. Health system costs were from a national data set linking individual health events to costs., Results: The 1-year operation of the existing intervention package of mass media promotion and quitline service was found to be net cost saving to the health sector for all age groups, sexes and ethnic groups (saving $NZ84 million; 95%uncertainty interval 60-115 million in the base-case model). It also produced greater per capita health gains for Māori (indigenous) than non-Māori (2.2 vs 0.73 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per 1000 population, respectively). The net cost saving of the intervention was maintained in all sensitivity and scenario analyses for example at a discount rate of 6% and when the intervention effect size was quartered (given the possibility of residual confounding in our estimates of smoking cessation). Running the intervention for 20 years would generate an estimated 54 000 QALYs and $NZ1.10 billion (US$0.74 billion) in cost savings., Conclusions: The package of a quitline service and its promotion in the mass media appears to be an effective means to generate health gain, address health inequalities and save health system costs. Nevertheless, the role of this intervention needs to be compared with other tobacco control and health sector interventions, some of which may be even more cost saving., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Objective: There is growing international interest in advancing 'the tobacco endgame'. We use New Zealand (Smokefree goal for 2025) as a case study to model the impacts on smoking prevalence (SP), health gains (quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)) and cost savings of (1) 10% annual tobacco tax increases, (2) a tobacco-free generation (TFG), (3) a substantial outlet reduction strategy, (4) a sinking lid on tobacco supply and (5) a combination of 1, 2 and 3., Methods: Two models were used: (1) a dynamic population forecasting model for SP and (2) a closed cohort (population alive in 2011) multistate life table model (including 16 tobacco-related diseases) for health gains and costs., Results: All selected tobacco endgame strategies were associated with reductions in SP by 2025, down from 34.7%/14.1% for Māori (indigenous population)/non-Māori in 2011 to 16.0%/6.8% for tax increases; 11.2%/5.6% for the TFG; 17.8%/7.3% for the outlet reduction; 0% for the sinking lid; and 9.3%/4.8% for the combined strategy. Major health gains accrued over the remainder of the 2011 population's lives ranging from 28 900 QALYs (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI)): 16 500 to 48 200; outlet reduction) to 282 000 QALYs (95%UI: 189 000 to 405 000; sinking lid) compared with business-as-usual (3% discounting). The timing of health gain and cost savings greatly differed for the various strategies (with accumulated health gain peaking in 2040 for the sinking lid and 2070 for the TFG)., Conclusions: Implementing endgame strategies is needed to achieve tobacco endgame targets and reduce inequalities in smoking. Given such strategies are new, modelling studies provide provisional information on what approaches may be best., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Introduction: Digital technology has created opportunities for delivering smoking cessation assistance at the population level. However, the efficacy of sending multiple, automated, tailored emails providing motivation, support and information for quitting is unknown., Methods: Smokers planning to quit (n=1070) were randomly assigned to (1) 27 tailored cessation emails (deluxe email group (DEG)), (2) 3 to 4 tailored emails with links to downloadable booklets (basic email group (BEG)) or (3) a single non-tailored email (single email group (SEG)). All emails included links to quitting resources. Self-reported 7-day point-prevalence abstinence was assessed at 1 month, 3 months and 6 months postenrolment., Results: Across follow-ups, abstinence was significantly greater for smokers in the DEG (34%) compared with the SEG (25.8%; OR=1.47, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.02, p=0.02) but there was no difference between the BEG (30.8%) and the SEG (p=0.13). Results were independent of baseline cigarettes per day, interest in quitting, smoker in household, use of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) or varenicline and gender, themselves associated with abstinence (ps<0.05). Missing=smoking and multiple imputation analyses based on 25 data sets corroborated results. Participants in the DEG were also more likely to use non-medication aids (eg, quit smoking website, cessation class/clinic) compared with the SEG (OR=1.34, p=0.02, CI 1.06 to 1.71), but use of these or NRT by the 4-week follow-up (vs no use) increased abstinence across follow-ups primarily for those in the SEG., Conclusions: Stand-alone tailored, multiple emails providing support, motivation and information during a quit attempt are an easily deployable, inexpensive mode of providing effective cessation assistance to large numbers of smokers planning to quit., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

In May 2016, the Australian Government announced that it would implement annual increases in tobacco excise of 12.5% up to and including 2020, raising the cost of a pack of cigarettes to $A40. This increase will lead to Australia having one of the highest prices of cigarettes in the world. Increasing the cost of tobacco is considered by public health experts to be one of the most effective strategies to reduce tobacco use, and is generally well supported by the public. However, tobacco tax increases differentially impact various subgroups of the population. Based on a review of existing literature, this paper examines some of the potential (unintended) consequences of the tax to individual and family income; illicit trade; social stigma and opportunities for lobbying by the tobacco industry. In light of these considerations, we offer strategies that might be used by policymakers to mitigate potential harms. While this paper focuses on the impacts primarily on populations in Australia, the consequences and strategies offered may be useful to other countries implementing tobacco excise increases., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Introduction: Evaluation studies of population-based tobacco control interventions often rely on large-scale survey data from numerous respondents across many geographic areas to provide evidence of their effectiveness. Significant challenges for survey research have emerged with the evolving communications landscape, particularly for surveying hard-to-reach populations such as youth and young adults. This study combines the comprehensive coverage of an address-based sampling (ABS) frame with the timeliness of online data collection to develop a nationally representative longitudinal cohort of young people aged 15-21., Methods: We constructed an ABS frame, partially supplemented with auxiliary data, to recruit this hard-to-reach sample. Branded and tested mail-based recruitment materials were designed to bring respondents online for screening, consent and surveying. Once enrolled, respondents completed online surveys every 6 months via computer, tablet or smartphone. Numerous strategies were utilized to enhance retention and representativeness RESULTS: Results detail sample performance, representativeness and retention rates as well as device utilization trends for survey completion among youth and young adult respondents. Panel development efforts resulted in a large, nationally representative sample with high retention rates., Conclusions: This study is among the first to employ this hybrid ABS-to-online methodology to recruit and retain youth and young adults in a probability-based online cohort panel. The approach is particularly valuable for conducting research among younger populations as it capitalizes on their increasing access to and comfort with digital communication. We discuss challenges and opportunities of panel recruitment and retention methods in an effort to provide valuable information for tobacco control researchers seeking to obtain representative, population-based samples of youth and young adults in the U.S. as well as across the globe., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Background: Increasing cigarette prices reduce cigarette use. The US Food and Drug Administration has the authority to regulate the sale and promotion-and therefore the price-of tobacco products., Objective: To examine the potential effect of federal minimum price regulation on the sales of cigarettes in the USA., Method: We used yearly state-level data from the Tax Burden on Tobacco and other sources to model per capita cigarette sales as a function of price. We used the fitted model to compare the status quo sales with counterfactual scenarios in which a federal minimum price was set. The minimum price scenarios ranged from $0 to $12., Results: The estimated price effect in our model was comparable with that found in the literature. Our counterfactual analyses suggested that the impact of a minimum price requirement could range from a minimal effect at the $4 level to a reduction of 5.7 billion packs sold per year and 10 million smokers at the $10 level., Conclusion: A federal minimum price policy has the potential to greatly benefit tobacco control and public health by uniformly increasing the price of cigarettes and by eliminating many price-reducing strategies currently available to both sellers and consumers., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Objective: Since WHO released the package of six MPOWER measures to assist nations with implementing the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC), 88 countries adopted at least one highest level MPOWER measure. We estimated the subsequent reduction in smoking-related deaths from all new highest level measures adopted between 2007 and 2014., Methods: Policy effect sizes based on previously validated SimSmoke models were applied to the number of smokers in each nation to determine the reduction in the number of smokers from policy adoption. On the basis of research that half of all smokers die from smoking, we derived the smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) averted of those smokers alive today., Findings: In total, 88 countries adopted at least one highest level MPOWER policy between 2007 and 2014, resulting in almost 22 million fewer projected SADs. The largest number of future SADs averted was due to increased cigarette taxes (7.0 million), followed by comprehensive smoke-free laws (5.4 million), large graphic health warnings (4.1 million), comprehensive marketing bans (3.8 million) and comprehensive cessation interventions (1.5 million)., Conclusions: These findings demonstrate the immense public health impact of tobacco control policies adopted globally since the WHO-FCTC and highlight the importance of more countries adopting highest level MPOWER measures to reduce the global burden of tobacco use. Substantial additional progress could be made, especially if heavily populated nations with high smoking prevalence were to reach highest level MPOWER measures., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)