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IntroductionRemoval of tobacco industry branding from cigarette packs may reduce their appeal. Adding graphic warning labels (GWLs) should enhance this effect. We investigate whether willingness to pay for various packaging designs changes after 3 months' use of: (1) US branded packs without GWLs (US), (2) non-branded packs without GWLs (Blank), and (3) rotating non-branded packs with GWLs (gangrene; throat cancer; neonatal baby) covering >75% of pack (GWL).MethodsCalifornian adult daily smokers not planning to quit (n=287; 56% female; mean age=39.6) completed a discrete choice purchase task before and after 3 months' experience using one of three packaging options. Conjoint analysis and pre-post modelling evaluated the change in importance of pack attributes and willingness to pay for US, Blank or GWL (blindness; teeth; gangrene) pack designs.ResultsPrice determined ~70% of purchase choices, while pack design determined ~22%. Irrespective of intervention arm, US packaging generated appeal valuations compared with Blank packaging, while GWLs consistently provoked strong aversive valuations at baseline and follow-up. Compared with the US pack arm, using GWL packs for 3 months decreased willingness to pay for US packaging (β=-$0.38, 95% CI -0.76 to 0.00). Wear-out effects were detected in the discount needed to willingly purchase the gangrene-GWL pack (β=$0.49, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.82) and Blank pack (β=$0.42, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.74) but not for GWLs (blindness, teeth) not used in trial.ConclusionCompared with US branded packs, the negative valuation of non-branded GWL packs attenuates with even 3 months' use but does not generalise to non-used GWLs. This suggests that GWLs should be regularly refreshed. The appeal valuation of industry imagery suggests that the US plan to retain such imagery on packs may ameliorate the effect of GWLs.

ObjectiveTo assess the effectiveness of e-cigarettes in smoking cessation in the USA from 2017 to 2019, given the 2017 increase in high nicotine e-cigarette sales.MethodsIn 2017, the PATH Cohort Study included data on 3578 previous year smokers with a recent quit attempt and 1323 recent former smokers. Respondents reported e-cigarettes or other products used to quit cigarettes and many covariates associated with e-cigarette use. Study outcomes were 12+ months of cigarette abstinence and tobacco abstinence in 2019. We report weighted unadjusted estimates and use propensity score matched analyses with 1500 bootstrap samples to estimate adjusted risk differences (aRD).ResultsIn 2017, 12.6% (95% CI 11.3% to 13.9%) of recent quit attempters used e-cigarettes to help with their quit attempt, a decline from previous years. Cigarette abstinence for e-cigarette users (9.9%, 95% CI 6.6% to 13.2%) was lower than for no product use (18.6%, 95% CI 16.0% to 21.2%), and the aRD for e-cigarettes versus pharmaceutical aids was -7.3% (95% CI -14.4 to -0.4) and for e-cigarettes versus any other method was -7.7% (95% CI -12.2 to -3.2). Only 2.2% (95% CI 0.0% to 4.4%) of recent former smokers switched to a high nicotine e-cigarette. Subjects who switched to e-cigarettes appeared to have a higher relapse rate than those who did not switch to e-cigarettes or other tobacco, although the difference was not statistically significant.ConclusionsSales increases in high nicotine e-cigarettes in 2017 did not translate to more smokers using these e-cigarettes to quit smoking. On average, using e-cigarettes for cessation in 2017 did not improve successful quitting or prevent relapse.

ObjectiveTo identify whether three types of cigarette pack designs, including three versions of graphic warning label (GWL) plain packs, one GWL absent and branding absent pack (blank) and the smoker's own GWL absent and branding present pack (US), elicit different valence, type and levels of affect.DesignUS daily smokers (n=324) were asked to handle each of the five pack types and 'think aloud' their reactions. To avoid a muted familiarity response, exposure to their own US pack followed exposure to at least one GWL plain pack. Reactions were scored on a reactivity scale (-3 to +3) and the text was coded for speech polarity (-1 to +1) and emotive word frequency.ResultsReactivity scores had excellent inter-rater reliability (agreement ≥86%; intraclass correlation coefficient ≥0.89) and were correlated with speech polarity (r=0.21-0.37, p

ObjectivesTo estimate the effect of menthol use and transitions in use (switching to or from menthol) on short-term and long-term cessation from cigarette smoking and whether this differed across demographic groups (age, sex, race).MethodsWe compared the probability of 30+ day and 12-month abstinence from cigarette smoking by menthol use status using two cohorts of US adult cigarette smokers who attempted to quit smoking in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (wave 1 to wave 3 and wave 2 to wave 4; n=5759), inverse probability of treatment weighting and adjusted risk ratios (aRRs).ResultsUsing menthol (vs non-menthol) prior to a quit attempt decreased the probability of 30+ day abstinence by 28% (aRR=0.78; 95% CI 0.67 to 0.91) and the probability of 12-month abstinence by 53% (aRR=0.65; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.88). Additionally, switching from menthol (vs maintaining menthol use) increased the probability of 30+ day abstinence by 58% (aRR=1.58; 95% CI 1.00 to 2.50) and the probability of 12-month abstinence by 97% (aRR=1.86; 95% CI 0.92 to 3.74). Switching to menthol (vs maintaining non-menthol use) was associated with a lower probability of 30+ day (aRR=0.70; 95% CI 0.42 to 1.16) and 12-month abstinence (aRR=0.64; 95% CI 0.30 to 1.36), but these associations were imprecise. The effects of menthol use on impaired quitting were slightly larger for non-Hispanic Black smokers, but not different for other demographic groups.ConclusionThese results demonstrate that menthol impaired menthol smokers' attempts to quit smoking but switching from menthol improved success. This suggests that removing menthol may improve menthol smokers' success during quit attempts.

IntroductionGraphic warning labels on cigarette packaging are mandated in 118 countries and are under consideration in the USA. We propose an appeal-aversion assessment tool to help regulators choose among graphic packaging options.MethodsAfter familiarisation with different cigarette packaging, adult daily smokers (n=338) from San Diego, California, USA completed a discrete choice appeal-aversion purchasing task and provided information on nicotine dependence and sociodemographics (2017-2019). The conjoint analysis estimated the importance and price utility for product attributes (ie, packaging, price, tobacco origin and quitline number). The price premiums that smokers would be willing to pay to avoid purchasing graphic packaging were calculated.ResultsAmong purchase determinants, the price was the most important attribute (65.5%), followed by packaging design (27.1%). Compared with blank packaging without marketing, branded industry packs had appeal valuations (US$0.54; 95% CI: US$0.44 to US$0.65), whereas graphic warning packs had aversion valuations that varied with the salience of the image (blindness=-US$2.53, 95% CI: -US$2.76 to -US$2.31; teeth damage=-US$2.90, 95% CI: -US$3.17 to -US$2.63; and gangrenous foot=-US$3.70, 95% CI: -US$4.01 to -US$3.39). The aversion was such that 46.2% of participants were willing to pay a 50+% premium over their current cigarette price to have their branded packs rather than a graphic pack. These appeal-aversion valuations were moderated by sex, income and nicotine dependence (p

BackgroundOver two-thirds of Natural American Spirit (NAS) smokers believe their cigarettes might be 'less harmful', but toxicological evidence does not support this belief. We assessed whether standardised packaging could reduce the possibility of erroneous inferences of 'safety' drawn from NAS cigarette packaging.MethodsUS adult smokers (n=909) were recruited to a between-subject survey experiment (3 brands×3 packaging/labelling styles) through Amazon Mechanical Turk and rated their perception of whether a randomly assigned cigarette package conveyed that the brand was 'safer' on a three-item scale (Cronbach's α=0.92). We assessed whether NAS packs were rated higher on the 'implied safety' scale than two other brands and estimated the effect that plain packaging (ie, all branding replaced with a drab dark brown colour) and Australian-like packaging (ie, all branding replaced with a drab dark brown colour and a graphic image and text on 75% of the pack surface) had on perceptions of the NAS cigarette package.ResultsSmokers' ratings of the standard NAS pack on the implied safety scale (mean=4.6; SD=2.9) were 1.9 times (P

BackgroundIn the 1990s, California led the USA in state-level tobacco control strategies. However, after 2000, California lost ground on cigarette taxes, although it maintained higher levels of smoke-free homes among smokers.MethodsTrends in per capita cigarette consumption were assessed through taxed sales data and from self-report in repeated national cross-sectional surveys. Linear regressions identified changes in trends after year 2000 separately for California and the rest of the USA. Using data from each state, a linear regression tested the association between different tobacco control strategies and per capita consumption. Change in self-reported per capita consumption was partitioned into contributions associated with initiation, quitting and reduction in cigarette consumption level.ResultsBoth taxed cigarette sales and per capita consumption declined rapidly in the USA from 1985 to 2015. Declines were particularly fast in California before 2000 but slowed thereafter. In 2014, per capita consumption in California was 29.4 packs/adult/year, but 90% higher in the rest of the USA. Modelling state-level data, every $1 increase in cigarette taxes reduced consumption by 4.8 (95% CI 2.9 to 6.8) packs/adult/year. Every 5% increase in the proportion of smokers with smoke-free homes reduced consumption by 8.0 (95% CI 7.0 to 8.9) packs/adult/year. The different patterns in California and the rest of the USA are at least partially explained by these two variables. The slow down in per capita consumption in California can be attributed to changes in initiation, quitting and especially smokers reducing their consumption level.ConclusionsTobacco control strategies need to be continually updated to maintain momentum towards a smoke-free society.

BackgroundThe rapid diffusion of social media in the past decade has allowed community members to sway the discourse on elections. We use analyses of social media to provide insight into why the strong public support 1 year prior to the election did not result in an increased tobacco tax from the 2012 California Proposition 29 vote.MethodsUsing the Twitter historical Firehose, we chose all tweets on Proposition 29 posted between 1 January and 5 June 2012 differentiating between early and late campaign periods. Tweets were coded for valence, theme and source. We analysed metadata to characterise accounts. Television ratings data in 9 major California media markets were used to show the strength of the 2 campaigns.Results'No on 29' launched television advertising earlier and with much higher household gross rating points (GRPs) than the 'Yes on 29' campaign. Among 17 099 relevant tweets from 8769 unique accounts, 53% supported Proposition 29, 27% opposed and 20% were neutral. Just under half (43%) were from accounts affiliated with the campaigns. Two-thirds of campaign messages originated outside California. The 'Yes' campaign focused on simple health messages, which were equally represented in both campaign periods. However, anti-tax tweets increased at relative to pro-tax tweets in the second period.ConclusionsAlthough the Prop 29 campaigns did not effectively engage the Californian twitter communities, analysis of tweets provided an earlier indication than public polls of the loss of public supporting this election. Prospective Twitter analysis should be added to campaign evaluation strategies.

BackgroundThis paper describes the methods and conceptual framework for Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study data collection. The National Institutes of Health, through the National Institute on Drug Abuse, is partnering with the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Center for Tobacco Products to conduct the PATH Study under a contract with Westat.MethodsThe PATH Study is a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of 45 971 adults and youth in the USA, aged 12 years and older. Wave 1 was conducted from 12 September 2013 to 15 December 2014 using Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interviewing to collect information on tobacco-use patterns, risk perceptions and attitudes towards current and newly emerging tobacco products, tobacco initiation, cessation, relapse behaviours and health outcomes. The PATH Study's design allows for the longitudinal assessment of patterns of use of a spectrum of tobacco products, including initiation, cessation, relapse and transitions between products, as well as factors associated with use patterns. Additionally, the PATH Study collects biospecimens from consenting adults aged 18 years and older and measures biomarkers of exposure and potential harm related to tobacco use.ConclusionsThe cumulative, population-based data generated over time by the PATH Study will contribute to the evidence base to inform FDA's regulatory mission under the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act and efforts to reduce the Nation's burden of tobacco-related death and disease.

BackgroundIn 2015, the US Food and Drug Administration issued warning letters to three tobacco companies regarding use of the terms 'natural' and/or 'additive-free' to describe their products, as these terms inaccurately convey reduced harm. Yet, tobacco companies engage in a variety of alternate techniques to attempt to convey the same 'natural' (and thus reduced harm) message. It is critical to monitor these practices to inform regulatory action.ObjectiveTo describe the marketing techniques used in Natural American Spirit (American Spirit) ads that could convey a natural and less harmful product image.MethodsTrained coders content analysed 142 American Spirit ads from 2012 to 2016.ResultsIn addition to use of the terms 'natural' and 'additive-free', American Spirit ads engage in a variety of other linguistic and iconic techniques that could convey reduced harm, such as references to small, local or organic farming, eco-friendly practices, and plant, farming and other nature-related imagery.ConclusionsAmerican Spirit ads use a wide range of marketing techniques to convey a natural product image, which could subsequently communicate reduced harm.

BackgroundTobacco industry cigarette advertising is associated with increased adolescent smoking, while counter tobacco advertising is associated with reduced smoking. As these campaigns compete for influence, there is a need to understand their inter-relationship on youth smoking.MethodsThis study reports data from a national population of families (n=1036) with an oldest child aged 10–13 years, identified by random digit dialling. Parent and child dyads completed baseline questionnaires in 2003. Adolescents were resurveyed in 2007–2008 (response rate 74%). Adjusted logistic regression explores associations between receptivity to cigarette and tobacco control advertising and adolescent smoking initiation.ResultsIn 2007–2008, 57.9% of adolescents reported a favourite tobacco control advertisement and 43.3% reported being receptive to cigarette advertisements. Thirty per cent reported receptivity to cigarette and tobacco control advertisements. Among those receptive to cigarette advertising, having a favourite anti-smoking advertisement had a borderline significant association with a 30% lower smoking rate. Anti-industry tobacco control messages were three times more likely to be favourites of those who were receptive to cigarette advertising than other tobacco control advertising.ConclusionsReceptivity to tobacco control advertising appeared to ameliorate the promotion of initiation from cigarette advertising. Anti-industry advertising appears to be the most effective counter for tobacco control and should be considered for wider use. A larger longitudinal study is needed to confirm these findings.