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Agricultural sectors worldwide are under direct threat from climate change conditions. In Iran, agricultural production has decreased due to droughts originating in an increase in annual maximum temperatures—with the corresponding increase in crop respiration and evapotranspiration—and a decrease in accumulated precipitation. Based on a static computable general equilibrium approach, this paper reports implication for the Iranian economy from the effects of climate change on agriculture––as modeled through three scenarios relying on assumptions about the magnitude of continued reduction in total agricultural production. Reductions of 6%, 12%, and 18% in total agricultural production reasonably cover the range of impacts that climate change is expected to impose on the Iranian agricultural sector––under the assumption that no behavioral adaptations or policy interventions are in place. Our simulations suggest that effects on the Iranian economy imply a reduction in GDP ranging between 3.7 and 6.3%. In addition, 5–17% of labor moves away from the agriculture sector––this labor relocation occurs due to declining agriculture incomes. Findings illustrate that climate change will reduce households' consumption and income in all economic sectors, particularly among rural households. We suggest that policies in Iran should focus on improving cultivation methods to save water resources and alleviate the expected effects of climate change. The current study's outcomes are helpful for policymakers, especially in countries with water scarcity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For an effective reservoir operation during drought, the variations of both water supply and water demand which depend on hydrological and meteorological conditions need to be dealt with. This paper aimed to consider these variations in the Aharchay basin (Iran) by coupling a hedging rule (HR)-based reservoir operation model (HRROM) with a climate-based irrigation scheduling model (CBISM) at the farm level. Through the HRROM, optimal long-term decisions for Sattarkhan reservoir were made by considering the probable streamflow scenarios in the system. Given the variable agricultural demands (VAD) in the CBISM, the irrigation water was optimally allocated to the crops using several evapotranspiration (ET) scenarios. The CBISM employs three sub-models including linear programming (LP), nonlinear programming (NLP), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to maximize the total income of the Aharchay agricultural network as a function of the climate factors and the supplied water. To this end, the daily weather and discharge data from 1990 to 2015 were used in this study. The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the streamflow drought index (SDI) were used to detect the meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. The SPEI was calculated based on the high-resolution-gridded datasets of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). The findings demonstrated that the HRROM-CBISM generally managed to increase the time-based (αt) and volume-based (αv) reliability indices by 20% and 44%, respectively, compared with the conventional standard operation policy (SOP). For more investigations, the three major droughts of 2000–2002, 2004–2006, and 2008–2014 were separately analyzed. The average values of αt, αv, and vulnerability (V) for SOP were 0.33, 0.51, and 0.48, respectively. With the HRROM-CBISM, these values were about 0.5, 0.55, and 0.45, respectively. Among these indices, αt had the highest variations, while αv had the lowest variations in both the SOP and HRROM-CBISM approaches. The average water shortage for the mentioned droughts was significantly decreased from 89 (SOP) to 75 MCM (HRROM-CBISM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Selecting the appropriate climate models and determining their strengths and weaknesses are the key steps in examining climate change impacts on water resources. In this paper, the efficiency of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation estimations by 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections dataset (NEX-GDDP) was evaluated against the Observational Precipitation (OP) of 50 synoptic stations located in eight Precipitation Zones (PZs) of Iran. First, the average of GCMs precipitation for the period 1976–2005 was evaluated vs the OP data at both PZ and national levels. Then the efficiency of the GCMs and their Ensemble Average (EA) in estimating monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation were determined using NSE, NRMSE, KGE, and PBIAS statistics, and subsequently, the GCMs were ranked according to their statistics. The results show that the time variability of the GCMs' average annual precipitation agrees with that of the OP, but it underestimates the extreme values. The agreement of the models' estimations with observation is generally lowest in summer and the highest in winter and spring. Most of the GCMs show a lower ability in precipitation estimation in dry seasons than in wet seasons. EA of the models for all individual months shows the highest errors in the coastal areas of the Caspian Sea, especially for the spring and winter seasons. The examination of the GCMs' efficiency at the national level shows that the EA and GFDL-ESM2G models have the least errors at monthly and annual time scales, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study aims to investigate Iran's agrometeorological drought history and its properties using Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI). For this purpose, precipitation and soil moisture recorded at 99 synoptic stations in Iran during 1985 to 2018 were selected. Based on MSDI time series, drought properties including duration and severity were calculated and trend analysis was carried on using Trend Free Prewhitening Mann Kendall test. Also, the standard normal homogeneity test was applied to investigate chronological drought change-point detection. From agrometeorological perspective, results showed that longer and more severe droughts are more dominant in southern, southeastern, northeastern, and some western regions of the country. Trend analysis revealed that most study stations have rising frequency and significant drying trend especially in winter at central plateau and western regions. Also, we recognized two main periods 1991–2000 and 2006–2010 that many stations experienced change-point in their MSDI time series, mainly because of climatic and anthropogenic causes. Drought properties assessment shows 6 stations with serious upward trend in drought duration and severity in northeast and western regions. Sens's Slope statistics in these stations was calculated around 1.5 degree per event for drought severity and 1 month per event for drought duration. It is also observed that the 75th quantile of drought severity for most parts of the country is between 13 and 18 and the 75th quantile for drought duration varies between 8 and 24 months in different regions. The probability analysis revealed that most stations have a ratio around 2–5 times increase in drought occurrence probability after change point, leading to longer and more severe droughts in these stations. The paper indicates a serious situation related to agrometeorological drought occurrence, persistence, and severity in Iran because of many climatic and anthropogenic factors over the last 30 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increase in energy demand and consumption is one of the significant challenges of the world community. Global climate change and temperature rise can significantly affect energy demand, especially in the building sector. Green passive design strategies (GPDS) such as green roof and green wall are considered a passive energy-saving technology which can deal with further climate change in near future. This paper compares the energy demand and CO2 emissions of a building with different structural scenarios during the current (2000–2019) and future climatic conditions (the 2050s) in two hot-dry (Kerman) and hot-humid (BandarAbbas) climate samples in Iran. The base case, green roof, and green wall modeling of the selected building have been developed by DesignBuilder software. Results revealed that 61% of the annual energy consumption of Kerman is related to the heating sector, while it will be changed to 47% under the effect of climate change and based on RCP2.6. However, 99% of the annual energy consumption of BandarAbbas belongs to cooling demand and it will not change by 2050s. Also, the maximum heating and cooling energy demand were calculated for the base building. Based on the results, green wall has more efficiency in optimizing total energy consumption compared to green roof in both climate types. On the other hand, GPDS are more efficient to optimize heating energy demand in comparison with cooling energy demand. Furthermore, the green wall strategy has better performance in reducing CO2 emissions as well. Accordingly, CO2 emissions reduce in Kerman by 2.73% and 2.93% by the implementation of the green wall during the observation period and 2050s, respectively. Meanwhile, this strategy can reduce CO2 emissions by only 1% per year in BandarAbbas during all studied periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a natural, global and recurring phenomenon caused by climatic anomalies and inevitable meteorological changes. Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran has been drying up in recent years mainly because of its management and operations. On the other hand, with decreasing rainfall, the process of the lake drying up has intensified and affected different aspects of people's lives, especially farmers. In this paper, regional drought was studied in the Urmia Lake Basin from an agricultural perspective in the period of 2001 to 2021 using different vegetation indices such as the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), the Temperature Condition Index (TCI) and the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) as well as by applying the temperature product and vegetation cover product of the MODIS sensor of the Terra satellite. The efficiency of the methods was evaluated. The results of the linear correlation between drought indices and cumulative precipitation values during 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, 5 months and 7 months before the acquisition of the image showed that the correlation of indices, especially of the TVDINDVI index with the cumulative rainfall of 4 months, showed that the precipitation is more frequent than with other time scales due to the delayed response of vegetation to rainfall. From 2001 to 2020, it was observed that the severity of annual drought decreased according to TVDI values. The area with heavy drought decreased from 4.45 to 1.8% and medium drought decreased from 43.49 to 33%. Also, the correlation coefficient between other vegetation indices and temperature vegetation drought indices (TVDINDVI) showed that TCI and TVDI values were negatively (r = −0.73) correlated. Generally, by observing the calculated TVDI maps, it was seen that this basin has not encountered heavy drought so far. The results showed that the Urmia Lake Basin experienced long-term light and medium drought conditions. On the other hand, by calculating the NDWI index, changes in the area of Lake Urmia were monitored and it was found that the lake surface started to decrease beginning in 2005 and reached its lowest level in 2015, which corresponds to the other droughts that occurred. Finally, by conducting a trend analysis of TVDI, it was observed that there is no specific trend in the drought time series so it can be seen that drought may be one of the causes of a sharp decline in the lake's water level, but not the only factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper intends to reconstruct temporal-spatial patterns of below − 15 °C cold waves in the northwest of Iran and carry out a synoptic analysis of the patterns of these cold waves. Carrying out research on this topic can assist researchers and the state authorities in solving problems of different spheres of society, such as agriculture, economics, public health, etc., since cold waves can affect health problems in society and frosts can inflict severe damages to the agricultural crops and thereby lead to serious economic losses. For the purpose of this paper, a data corpus related to a period of 142 years from 1871 to 2012 was obtained from the relevant twentieth-century data banks of NOAA. Having sorted out the relevant data, cold waves of − 15 °C as well as cold waves of below − 15 °C were identified in the first place. Then, the identified cold wave patterns were classified and synoptically analyzed. The results revealed that, at the sea level, high-pressure waves from Siberia, west and northern regions coupled with the atmospheric blockings and the northern airflow in the upper levels of the atmosphere, led to transition of cold waves from northern latitudes to the northwest regions of Iran, resulting in very intense and long-lasting cold waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops and applies algorithms for optimally merging satellite precipitation products with rain-gauge precipitation for accurate rainfall estimation. The satellite-based precipitation products (SBPs) PERSIANN-CDR, TMPA-3B42, GPM-IMERG, and GSMaP MKV are combined and evaluated to generate accurate rainfall estimates. Daily satellite precipitation data are compared with corresponding station data to calculate the bias for the period 2014–2019. Three different algorithms are proposed whose adjustable parameters are optimally determined by solving constrained optimization algorithms to produce combinations of satellite-based precipitation products. The optimal combination is named optimally merged satellite-based precipitation (OMSBP). The root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient correlation (CC), and the Nash–Sutcliffe error (NSE) are employed to test the proposed method with precipitation data for the Tehran urban region, Iran. The spatially resolved results over the studied urban area establish that TMPA-3B42, with an average value MAE, MBE, and RMSE equal to 0.68 mm, − 0.31 mm, and 2.94 mm, leads to better estimates of precipitation than those of PERSIANN-CDR, IMERG, and GSMaP MKV. Moreover, algorithms alg7 and alg8 yielded better results with respect to the MAE and MBE, respectively. Lastly, algorithm alg3 produced better results than alg7 and alg8 based on the RMSE, NSE, and CC corresponding to precipitation predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture (SM) governs the exchange of energy and water between the atmosphere and land surface. In situ measurements of SM are uneven in Iran. This knowledge gap can be filled using satellite- and model-based products. This study assessed the performance of SM products, including Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR2), and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) against in situ observations considering the influence of soil texture, climate, and land cover over Lake Urmia Basin, which is the largest salt lake in Iran and the Middle East. In situ SM was measured over Lake Urmia Basin in the morning and afternoon using the time domain reflectometry (TDR) and oven drying and weighing techniques. Five statistical indicators, including correlation (R), absolute correlation (R(abs)), bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE), were applied. C-band AMSR2 products showed the best performance in grassland and croplands with the highest absolute correlation (0.63) and lowest average bias (−0.01). Among soil textures, SM products performed better in clay soils with the highest absolute correlation between C-band AMSR2 products and in situ observations (0.64) and low average bias and RMSE. Analyzing data based on climate, AMSR2 C1, and GLDAS products with the lowest average RMSE (0.08 m3m−3) and bias (0.01) and AMSR2 C2 with the absolute correlation of 0.6 showed the best performance in both temperate (Csa) and cold (Dsa) climate classes. For all classifications (land cover, soil texture, climate divisions), SMAP products reported the lowest average value of ubRMSE (0.03 m3m−3). The major contribution of the paper is finding the best SM products that can fill the gap in SM measurements data in Lake Urmia. In this analysis, the impacts of land cover, climate, and soil texture on the performance of products were considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater level observations due to the lack of synoptic water-level measurements are often available with irregular time intervals. The results lead to an inaccurate understanding of the parameters affecting groundwater level changes and their time delays. This paper presents a simple and low-cost approach to interpolate the irregular, periodic intervals of recorded groundwater level data for the Najafabad aquifer located in central Iran. Forty-six monitoring wells with an average of 20 years of data were used for this study. Piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomial (PCHIP), cubic spline, linear, and nearest neighbor are the selected interpolation methods. Cross-validation with leave-one-out technique was also applied to evaluate the accuracy of the methods under three conditions, including low, average, and high groundwater level decline. The analysis proved that (1) PCHIP interpolation showed a high performance in all of the groundwater level decline conditions (0.22 < RMSE < 0.59 and 0.72 < R2 < 0.98). (2) Under slight and without abrupt fluctuations of groundwater level conditions, cubic spline showed a better performance than the linear interpolation (R2 = 0.98, RMSE = 0.49 for cubic spline and R2 = 0.98, RMSE = 0.51 for linear). The selected approach reduces the uncertainty in the study of issues such as changes in groundwater recharge and storage, groundwater flow directions, surface–groundwater interaction, and groundwater modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in amount and frequency of runoff are caused by interaction of the climatic and anthropogenic factors in human-nature system. Those part of the runoff variations caused by anthropogenic loadings are more manageable compared with climate effects occurring over a long period. In this paper, we propose a framework to decompose the effect of anthropogenic and climatic time series on streamflow. To fulfill this task, anthropogenic time series attribution (ATSA) method is introduced. ATSA employs the output of climate elasticity (CE) method to extract human-affected time series and naturalizes the annual streamflow. In other words, ATSA makes it possible to exploit CE output in time series analysis. Furthermore, temporal downscaling process performed by a hybrid discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural network (DWT-ANN) enhances the temporal resolution of ATSA. We applied ATSA framework on Urmia Lake (northwest of Iran) inflow over the 1972–2010 period. CE application indicated that the contribution of climatic and anthropogenic factors in reduction of the mean inflow to the lake is about 60 and 40%, respectively. ATSA also revealed how human exploitation affected the time series of the lake inflow. Roughly, 14,000 MCM of the lake inflow reduction was attributed to the anthropogenic impacts between 1995 and 2010 such that the removal of anthropogenic loading could have led to rising water level up to 1275.5 meters above the sea level (i.e., 1.4 m above the ecological level) in 2010. Furthermore, the effect of de-trended inflow time series was investigated via DWT-ANN. Trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW-MK) test indicated significant increase in temperature, potential evapotranspiration, population, reservoir capacity, irrigated area, and the number of wells, over 39 years of the study period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDFs) curves generally were developed based on stationary extreme value assumption. However, climate change is expected to alter extreme rainfalls and invalidate the stationary assumption. So, it is crucial to develop future rainfall IDFs taking into account the impacts of climate change. Difficulty in preparing reliable rainfall time series with fine time step and capturing extremes for future climate scenarios has led to limited studies aimed at investigating the change of IDF curves due to climate change. In this paper, a robust stochastic rainfall model (NSRP) is employed to produce future rainfall IDFs for five stations across Karkheh and Karun basins in Iran. NSRP can generate long-term realistic rainfall series containing extremes. Moreover, it applies changes in different rainfall statistical characteristics, projected by GCMs, in the downscaling procedure. For each station, the model was calibrated using observed rainfalls series. Then, 3000-year daily rainfall series were generated, and historical IDFs were developed. Consequently, NSRP parameters were perturbed based on GCM projections. Then, 3000-year future rainfall series were generated, and future IDFs were developed. The climate change uncertainties were represented by employing two GCM (CanESM2 and HadGem2) and three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The results showed NSRP is able to reproduce observed extreme rainfalls in a wide range of time scales. Also, climate change will lead to a considerable increase in future extreme rainfall intensity in the study basins. As averages of all considered scenarios, rainfall intensities will increase between 22 and 206% in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural activities are considered the most important source of income for ~ 23% of the population in Mazandaran Province, Iran. However, farming activities are overwhelmingly exposed to the detrimental impacts of drought in this region. The purpose of this paper is to establish differences in farmers' perceptions on the effects of drought on social, economic, and environmental activities between coastal lowland and inland mountain foreland regions. Our research focuses on rural farming communities residing in the towns of Chalus (coastal plain adjacent to the Caspian Sea) and Kelardasht (Alborz mountain foreland). In 2019, questionnaires were distributed to villagers, and subsequently completed by household heads. Sample size was determined using Cochran, with 384 responses per sub-region. Results obtained by statistical analyses using SPSS indicate that farmers in the coastal region perceived stronger drought impacts on food security, agriculture, economy, education, immigration, and the natural environment than those in the adjoining mountainous region. The study demonstrates how location over relatively small distance, but different in topography, distance from the coast, climate, infrastructural development, and societal factors, has profound impact of people's perceptions to, and experiences of, drought in northern Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes climate variability and change in the Urmia Lake Basin, northwest of Iran. Annual average of the following data time series has been analyzed by statistical methods: dry bulb temperature, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and number of rainy and snowy days. We have also used mean monthly temperature and precipitation data for analysis of drought spells for the period 1964-2005 to find out whether fluctuations in the lake level are attributable to natural drought. Our results indicate that mean precipitation has decreased by 9.2 % and the average maximum temperature has increased by 0.8°C over these four decades. The seasonal changes are particularly visible in winter and spring. Results of the Palmer Drought Severity Index show that on average, drought episodes have hit the Urmia Lake Basin every 5 years and most of them reached severe levels, but recent droughts have become more intense and last longer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimation of the spatial distribution of precipitation is crucial for hydrologic modeling. To achieve the realistic estimation of precipitation, developing a ground-based observatory system is a costly and time-consuming strategy compared with other solutions such as using a combination of satellite- and ground-based observations. In this paper, to improve the estimation accuracy of spatial precipitation variation, various linear regression methods were used that combine digital elevation model (DEM) data, rain gauge observations, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products. Specifically, fuzzy cluster-based linear regression (FCLR), local multiple linear regression using historical similarity (LMLR-HS), model tree (MT), and moving least squares (MLS) were used in the proposed methodology based on local data behavior. The results were compared with those obtained from multiple linear regression (MLR) methods including simple multiple linear regression (SMLR), robust multiple linear regression (RMLR), and generalized linear model (GLM) for monthly precipitation estimation. The study area was Namak Lake watershed, one of the largest watersheds in Iran. The results, estimated for wet and dry years (years 1999 and 2003, respectively), show superiority of local linear regression methods over the other linear methods. Based on the statistical metrics used for assessing the quality the results, FCLR and MLS outperformed other tested methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the spatial-temporal inadequacy of large-scale general circulation models (GCMs), linking large-scale GCM data with small-scale local climatic data has found great interest. In this paper, in order to downscale minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation predictands, the performance of three statistical downscaling techniques including Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG), statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and artificial neural network (ANN) was compared based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5) in northwest Iran. For this purpose, a nonparametric test named Mann-Whitney test, Spearman correlation coefficient, and the root mean square error (RMSE) were utilized to assess the efficiency of downscaling models. To scrutinize the climate change impacts, periods of 1961–1990 and 1991–2005 were considered as the baseline and verification periods, respectively. The findings revealed the superior performance of the ANN model for minimum and maximum temperatures, while for precipitation predictand, the SDSM represented the best performance among the models. Simulation results for future temperature indicated an ascending trend as 0.1–1.3 °C, 0.3–1.7 °C, and 0.5–2.1 °C for LARS-WG, SDSM, and ANN techniques, respectively. On the other hand, simulation outputs for the precipitation indicated a descending trend of 10–30% in future precipitation of the region according to downscaling models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) pessimistic scenario of Hadley Center Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) GCM model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to investigate the ability of artificial neural network (ANN) models for post-processing the monthly precipitation forecasts under North American multi-model ensemble (NMME) project and proposing a new multi-model ensemble neural network (MME-NN) model. Monthly precipitation hindcasts of eight models from NMME project are considered in this study. Multi-layer perceptron neural networks are employed for post-processing the output of the models in comparison with PERSIANN-CDR climatology data. Also, utilizing a multi-criteria decision-making approach, NMME models are ranked for each month. The study is implemented over Iran and detailed discussions are provided. The results indicate that the skill of NMME models is different for each month and for each region of the country. Also, it is shown that the neural network outperforms all NMME models for all months. By using the ranking of the models, for each month, the NMME models are ordered based on their skill and a monthly rank is devoted for each model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigation of precipitation characteristics on daily, monthly, and annual time scales can contribute to gaining important information related to temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation or even flow rate challenges (e.g., hydrological droughts). The low levels of long-term precipitation and high variability in different time scales are considered the main inherent characteristics of climate in Iran. Due to the direct effects of precipitation on water resources, especially on the river flow rate, it is necessary to assess the efficient indices to visualize the variations in the components of water resources. One of the main indices is the precipitation concentration index (PCI) which is known as a strong indicator of the precipitation distribution generally used on annual and seasonal scales. In this study, drought analysis in the Lake Urmia Basin (LUB) located in northwest of Iran was performed with the daily river flow rate and monthly precipitation values within the period of 1984–2013. The results of changes in precipitation indicated that the irregularity of precipitation distribution had grown in spring months. Also, due to the diminishing precipitation trend on the annual time scale, PCI index also increased. It is concluded that LUB detected a significant descending trend on the annual, spring, and winter time scales in the last 30 years. The PCI values were proved high irregularity in summer with PCI amount of 20.1 and most regularity in winter with PCI amount of 10.4. This paper also aims to assess the effects of PCI on the river flow rate along with the flow shortness volume values using hydrometric and rain gauge stations within LUB. The results obtained from the changes in river flow rate and flow shortness volume revealed that the river flow rate has mostly a falling trend. Finally, it was observed that the time when the river flow rate data changed happened after beginning of changes in the precipitation data. A decrease in inflow from 900 million cubic meters up to 14 billion cubic meters with high flow shortness volume may happen in worst conditions. These results highlighted the importance of applying water resources management in LUB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, trends of minimum and maximum temperatures in Iran were studied using time series of daily minimum and maximum temperatures of 45 meteorological stations from 1976 to 2005 (as the baseline period). Mann-Kendall test, for maximum and minimum temperature, was obtained 1.85 and 3.56, respectively, which was positive and significant. The slope of the trend line for maximum and minimum temperature was obtained 0.23 and 0.39 °C decade−1, respectively. In this study, the trend of extreme temperature indicators was also evaluated. According to the obtained results, in annual terms, TX10, FDO, TN10, and IDO indices have had a negative trend at most stations, but TX90, TR20, TNx, TNx, TXn, TN90, SDI, and SU25 indices showed a positive trend. In the seasonal scale, the indices of cold days (TX10) and cold nights (TN10) showed significant negative trends in most seasons. Warm days (TX90) and warm nights (TN90) showed significant positive trends at most stations. The results of future simulations using several general circulation models in different time periods showed that the highest increase in maximum and minimum temperature related to the RCP8.5 scenario in periods of 2071 to 2099. The results also showed that northwest of Iran would have the highest temperature rise. The results also showed that the probability density function of the minimum and maximum temperatures will shift to warmer temperatures. This could be an indication of climate change in the future decades in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among climatic elements, temperature is of paramount importance, hence highlighting the necessity of studying the effects of temperature on the growth of organisms, especially plants. The main purpose of this paper is the analysis and zoning of degree days during the growing season at base temperatures of 5 and 10 °C using heat index at 31 synoptic stations in Iran during a 23-year common statistical period (from 1988–1989 to 2009–2010). For calculation of heat units, first, the growing season length at temperature thresholds of 5 and 10 °C was obtained and after calculating heat units during the growing season, the zoning map of heat units and growing season length was prepared in GIS software. Accordingly, heat units of the growing season at base temperatures of 5 and 10 °C could be divided into five categories. The heat units of the growing season at a base temperature of 5 °C showed a rising trend from the south to the north and from the west to the east of the country. At a base temperature of 10 °C, heat units declined from the south to the north and augmented from the west to the east. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) was used for statistically downscale the outputs of general circulation models (GCMs) to assess future changes of precipitation and mean temperature in Tabriz synoptic station at north-west of Iran. Since one of the significant subjects in statistical downscaling of GCMs is to select the most dominant large scale climate variables (predictors) among huge number of potential predictors, the predictors screening methods including decision tree, mutual information (MI) and correlation coefficient (CC) were used to statistically downscale mean monthly precipitation and temperature. Three GCMs were used, including Can-ESM2 and BNU-ESM from IPCC AR5 models and CGCM3 from IPCC AR4 models. The results of downscaling in the base period (1951–2000) indicated that among feature extraction methods decision tree had superiority to MI and CC techniques. Therefore, the future projection of precipitation and mean temperature during 2020–2060 was implemented using ANN-based simulation according to the most efficient downscaling model (i.e., decision tree-based calibration). Different results according to different GCMs and scenarios were obtained for precipitation projection. In this way, the Can-ESM2 model under RCP8.5 showed 29.78% decrease in annual precipitation and CGCM3 model under B1 indicated 1.06% increase of annual precipitation. Temperature projection outcomes denoted that annual mean temperature will increase over the region and the most increase in mean temperature was determined by BNU-ESM model under RCP8.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the linkage between large-scale atmospheric circulation and monthly precipitation during November to April over Iran. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to set up the statistical linkage between the 850 hPa geopotential height large-scale circulation and monthly precipitation over Iran for the period 1968–2010. The monthly precipitation dataset for 50 synoptic stations distributed in different climate regions of Iran is considered as the response variable in the CCA. The monthly geopotential height reanalysis dataset over an area between 10° N and 60° N and from 20° E to 80° E is utilized as the explanatory variable in the CCA. Principal component analysis (PCA) as a pre-filter is used for data reduction for both explanatory and response variables before applying CCA. The optimal number of principal components and canonical variables to be retained in the CCA equations is determined using the highest average cross-validated Kendall's tau value. The 850 hPa geopotential height pattern over the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, and Persian Gulf is found to be the major pattern related to Iranian monthly precipitation. The Pearson correlation between the area averaged of the observed and predicted precipitation over the study area for Jan, Feb, March, April, November, and December months are statistically significant at the 5% significance level and are 0.78, 0.80, 0.82, 0.74, 0.79, and 0.61, respectively. The relative operating characteristic (ROC) indicates that the highest scores for the above- and below-normal precipitation categories are, respectively, for February and April and the lowest scores found for December. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake Urmia, in northwest Iran, is the second most saline lake in the world. During the past two decades, the level of water has markedly decreased. In this paper, climate of the lake region is investigated by using data from four meteorological stations near the lake. The data include climatic parameters such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, number of rain days, and evaporation. Climate around the lake is examined by way of climate classification in the periods before and after the reduction in water level. Rainfall in the lake catchment is also evaluated using both gauge and satellite data. The results show a significant decreasing trend in mean annual precipitation and wind speed and an increasing trend in annual average temperature and sunshine hours at the four stations. Precipitation and wind speed have decreased by 37 mm and 2.7 m/s, respectively, and the mean annual temperature and sunshine hours have increased by 1.4 °C and 41.6 days, respectively, over these six decades. Only the climate of the Tabriz region is seen to have significantly changed, going from semiarid to arid. Gauge records and satellite data show a large-scale decreasing trend in rainfall since 1995. The correlation between rainfall and year-to-year changes in lake level is 0.69 over the period 1965 to 2010. The relationship is particularly strong from the early 1990s to 2005. This suggests that precipitation has played an important role in the documented decline of the lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identification of spatial and spatiotemporal precipitation variations plays an important role in different hydrological applications such as missing data estimation. In this paper, the results of Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) and ordinary kriging (OK) are compared for modeling spatial and spatiotemporal variations of annual precipitation with and without incorporating elevation variations. The study area of this research is Namak Lake watershed located in the central part of Iran with an area of approximately 90,000 km. The BME and OK methods have been used to model the spatial and spatiotemporal variations of precipitation in this watershed, and their performances have been evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results of the case study have shown the superiority of BME over OK in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes. The results have shown that BME estimates are less biased and more accurate than OK. The improvements in the BME estimates are mostly related to incorporating hard and soft data in the estimation process, which resulted in more detailed and reliable results. Estimation error variance for BME results is less than OK estimations in the study area in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, annual precipitation data sets from five old rain gauge stations (Bushehr, Isfahan, Meshed, Tehran, and Jask) in Iran were fitted to nonparametric kernel function by using rectangular, triangular, and Gaussian or normal as kernel functions. The smoothing parameter was calculated by four methods including rule of thumb, Adamowski criterion, least squares cross-validation, and Sheater and Jones plug-in. The Adamowski criterion showed a better performance compared to other methods due to goodness of fit tests. The results of these proposed nonparametric methods will be then compared to the results of the parametric density functions including normal, two and three parameter log-normal, two parameter gamma, Pearson and log-Pearson type 3, Gumbel or extreme value type 1 and also Fourier series method which were applied by a previous study for the same stations. It was concluded that the annual precipitation data were fitted to nonparametric methods better than parametric methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional extreme value analyses of drought characteristics provide information on probabilistic nature of drought occurrence, viewed as an essential tool in drought mitigation and planning. In this paper, L-moments are used to investigate the regional characteristics and probabilistic behavior of drought severity levels, represented by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) annual minima (the minimum monthly SPI value). Rainfall data of 3, 6, 12, and 24 month time scales are investigated. A regional watershed in southwestern Iran is used as a case study area. The semi-arid nature of the study area requires appropriate selection of rainfall data. The boxplot approach is used to select those months with adequate data time series for the SPI analysis. Appropriateness of the suggested data time series is discussed in the context of the research by Wu et al. (). Based on the results, all of the suggested time scales are found appropriate for SPI investigations. For each time scale of interest regional homogeneity is evaluated and the best regional/sub-regional probability distribution function is selected. Regional quantiles are estimated for different time scales and their variability with respect to return period is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides are identified as one of the most important natural hazards in many areas throughout the world. The essential purpose of this study is to compare general linear model (GLM), general additive model (GAM), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and modified analytical hierarchy process (M-AHP) models and assessment of their performances for landslide susceptibility modeling in the west of Mazandaran Province, Iran. First, landslides were identified by interpreting aerial photographs, and extensive field works. In total, 153 landslides were identified in the study area. Among these, 105 landslides were randomly selected as training data (i.e. used in the models training) and the remaining 48 (30 %) cases were used for the validation (i.e. used in the models validation). Afterward, based on a deep literature review on 220 scientific papers (period between 2005 and 2012), eleven conditioning factors including lithology, land use, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, slope angle, slope aspect, altitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), plan curvature, and profile curvature were selected. The Certainty Factor (CF) model was used for managing uncertainty in rule-based systems and evaluation of the correlation between the dependent (landslides) and independent variables. Finally, the landslide susceptibility zonation was produced using GLM, GAM, MARS, and M-AHP models. For evaluation of the models, the area under the curve (AUC) method was used and both success and prediction rate curves were calculated. The evaluation of models for GLM, GAM, and MARS showed 90.50, 88.90, and 82.10 % for training data and 77.52, 70.49, and 78.17 % for validation data, respectively. Furthermore, The AUC value of the produced landslide susceptibility map using M-AHP showed a training value of 77.82 % and validation value of 82.77 % accuracy. Based on the overall assessments, the proposed approaches showed reasonable results for landslide susceptibility mapping in the study area. Moreover, results obtained showed that the M-AHP model performed slightly better than the MARS, GLM, and GAM models in prediction. These algorithms can be very useful for landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping and land use planning in regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Karst aquifers are crucial sources of municipal water in Iran. This study aims to assess the impact of anthropogenic activities and climate change on the Sarbalesh aquifer in Fars province, which has experienced an intensive depletion in the last three decades. To achieve this, trends in rainfall and temperature series as climate variables, and groundwater level time series as a hydrologic variable, are detected using the Mann–Kendall (MK) and modified MK tests. The magnitude and rate of the trends were supported by Sen's slope and Kendall-τ coefficient. The dominant periodicities contributing to the observed trends in the original series were identified by a combination of discrete wavelet transform (DWT), MK, and sequential MK analyses, using three error criteria and three border extension modes. The monthly rainfall, temperature, and groundwater series exhibited prominent periodicities of 8 months, 8 months, and 64 months, respectively. Similarly, the annual rainfall, temperature, and groundwater series displayed significant periodicities of 4 years, 2 years, and 8 years, respectively. Using the Pettitt-Mann–Whitney (PMW) and cumulative sum approaches, we detected abrupt shifts (change points) in the studied time series and identified their causes. The coinciding change year points in the rainfall series and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) series, along with the negative correlation between rainfall and SOI and El Niño cycles, indicate that climate change and the La Niña phenomenon have increased SOI after the change year, resulting in decreased precipitation from November to April in the study area. Our multi-statistical approach demonstrates that the over 30-m decline in the groundwater level of the Sarbalesh karstic aquifer is due to continuous over-exploitation of water storage from this aquifer over the past 32 years. Additionally, decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature, as indicators of climate change, have further contributed to this declining trend. The result was further justified by the cross wavelet transform coherence (WTC) analysis. Our analysis provides an elaborate view of future hydro-climatic conditions, it can be used as a foundation for the management of many other karst aquifers that experience the same fate as the Sarbalesh aquifer in Iran and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to investigate characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts and their trends in Iran, as well as several subregions with different climate conditions from 1980 to 2013. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) are used as the primary indicators of meteorological and agricultural droughts, respectively. This study assesses historical droughts using the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI), which provides a composite model of meteorological-agricultural drought. Furthermore, this study discusses the behavior of MSDI relative to the other indices (SPI and SSI) over different climatic conditions ranging from humid, semiarid, and hyperarid regions. The Mann-Kendall trend test shows that the northern, northwestern, and central parts of Iran have experienced significant drying trends at a 95 % confidence level. However, no statistically significant drying trend was observed in the eastern part of Iran. The most severe drought across the country occurred between 1998 and 2001, with approximately 80 % of the country experiencing an exceptional drought (<2 % probability of occurrence). This event coincided with a prolonged cold phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (La Niña) that led to persistently cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific and warm sea surface temperatures in the Indian and western Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to provide a climatological view of cold spots and a spatiotemporal analysis of minimum land surface temperature (LST) in Iran. We used daily Aqua/MODIS LST product in 1-km resolution (MYD11A1 version 6.1) for 19 years (2003–2021). The findings indicate that Iran's coldest spots are located in a narrow corridor in the middle part of the Alborz Mountains called the "Iran's Cold Pole (ICP)." From May to November, a tri-modal distribution of absolute minimum LST (AMLST) exists at ICP. Mount Damavand and Varkash, with − 14.30 °C and − 49.18 °C, set the country's lowest long-term minimum LST (LTMLST) and AMLST records. The results indicate that the geographical distribution of Iran's cold spots (ICS) follows the high mountains with an altitude of more than 3500 m throughout the year. However, the AMLSTs are mainly concentrated in northwestern Iran and do not necessarily follow the high mountains. The results reveal that while cold spots are concentrated in the ICP in summer, they are geographically dispersed in winter, with the most dispersion in December. According to the results, the most prolonged cold period and the lowest LSTs occur every year from 38° N to 39° N in Iran. The trend shows that almost all the years after 2012 experienced a positive anomaly in the nighttime LST. Examining the interannual variations of the monthly AMLSTs indicates that very low LSTs and high negative anomalies have decreased during the cold period in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research has mapped the Quaternary equilibrium line altitude (ELA) using White's and Porter's methods to reconstruct past and present temperatures using a regression model in the Gharaghom basin located in northeastern Iran. The potential impact of climate change on glaciers was detected by using an artificial neural network. A regression model between temperature and altitude based on available observation data and reconstructed data indicated that the present temperature lapse rate of − 0.41 °C would occur for every hundred meters of increasing altitude in stations. The reconstruction of the past temperature of the Pleistocene revealed an increase of about 10.36–10.5 °C for the mean annual temperature of the current temperature in the basin. The recent ELA rises from the Pleistocene 2236 m and 2200 m a.s.l. according to White and Porter's methods, respectively. So, considering the present temperature lapse rate and the highest altitude of 3271 m, the maximum Pleistocene ELA depression would be about 800 m due to modern temperature increase of 10.36–10.5 °C compared to the past Pleistocene temperature. Based on the neural network projection model, linear growth in temperature would occur for the next three decades (2021–2051) in the Gharaghom basin. The minimum temperature has been much more affected than the maximum temperature, so global warming has caused an increase in the monthly minimum and maximum temperature in most seasons in different parts of the basin based on trend analysis. The average temperature rise of 0.19 °C for future decades would consequently affect the water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the parameters affecting albedo is snow. Therefore, the effects of snow on albedo can be a tool to understand environmental changes. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) continuously produces snow and albedo products of the land surface on a global scale and with appropriate spatial resolution and makes them available to researchers. In this study, to investigate the relationship between albedo and snow in Iran, first, the daily data of the MODIS sensor MCD43A4 and MOD10A1 products in the area of Iran in the period of 1/1/2001 to 12/30/2021 for 6770 days were downloaded from the NASA website. Since the temperature conditions for snowfall are provided from an altitude of 1700 m, was calculated the seasonal and long-term correlation between albedo and snow at altitudes above 1700 m. These altitudes, which cover 27% of Iran's area, were known as Iran's Mountains (Mts.). The results showed that in the winter and autumn seasons, which are known as Iran's snowy seasons, the land surface albedo also increases with the increase in snow cover. Therefore, in these seasons, the correlation between albedo and snow over Iran's Mts. is strongly positive. In these seasons, positive correlation covers 91 and 81% of Iran's Mts., respectively. In spring, there is a strong positive correlation in high altitudes and a weak positive/negative correlation in low altitudes. The negative correlation in the spring season is due to the delay in the measuring time of the sensor and the conversion of precipitation from solid to liquid. In the summer season, due to the establishment of Subtropical High-Pressure Systems Azores and the increase in air temperature, the snow cover of the Mts. disappears and the albedo was expected to decrease. But with the reduction of snow cover, albedo has increased. As a result, in these seasons, the correlation between albedo and snow over Iran's Mts. is negative. It seems that the increase in albedo in spring and especially summer is caused by the increase in the land surface temperature (LST), which requires separate research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Iran's diverse climate and topography lead to variable precipitation distribution over different time scales. This study examines daily rainfall distribution across 37 Iranian synoptic stations for 53 years (1966–2018) using the daily precipitation concentration index (CI) and Shannon's entropy (H). The analysis reveals significant insights into precipitation patterns and their implications. The concentration index (CI) highlights irregular daily precipitation, particularly along the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea coastlines, and in southeastern Iran, where CI values range from 0.58 to 0.72. In contrast, Shannon's entropy indicates higher entropy in northern and northwestern Iran, reflecting more uniform northwest rainfall (entropy values 6.48 to 11.63), while entropy decreases from northwest to south and southeast, indicating varying levels of precipitation evenness. The Lorenz asymmetric coefficient (LAC) indicates uneven rainfall distribution, characterized by light rain in the west/northwest and heavy rain elsewhere. The interplay between diminished precipitation, heightened entropy, and increased rainfall variability contributes to an elevated likelihood of droughts and flooding in the southern regions. For instance, regions like the Persian Gulf coast have CI values of 0.71, indicating moderate-high rainfall concentration. In the north, where CI values range from 0.57 to 0.71, amplified rainfall, entropy, and variability enhance the risk of flooding. Notably, the Shannon entropy index responds more significantly to changes in rainfall uniformity compared to increased daily precipitation classes, thereby significantly impacting the concentration index (CI). These findings provide valuable insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of precipitation, with implications for risk assessment, and water resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to better understand the effect associated with global climate change on Iran's climate condition, it is important to quantify possible shifts in different climatic types in the future. To this end, monthly mean minimum and maximum temperature, and precipitation from 181 synoptic meteorological stations (average 1970-2005) have been collected from the meteorological organization of Iran. In this paper, to study spatial changes of Iran's climatic zones affected by climate changes, Extended De Martonne's classification (originally formulated by De Martonne and extended by Khalili ()) was used. Climate change scenarios were simulated in two future climates (average conditions during the 2050s and the 2080s) under each of the SRES A1B and A2, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3, and CGCM3 climate models. Coarse outputs of GCMs were downscaled by delta method. We produced all maps for three time periods (one for the current and two for the future) according to Extended De Martonne's classification. Finally, for each climatic zone, changes between the current and the future were compared. As the main result, simulated changes indicate shifts to warmer and drier zones. For example, in the current, extra arid-cold ( A1.1m2) climate is covering the largest area of the country (21.4 %), whereas in both A1B and A2 scenarios in the 2050s and the 2080s, extra arid-moderate ( A1.1m3) and extra arid-warm ( A1.1m4) will be the climate and will occupy the largest area of the country, about 21 and 38 %, respectively. This analysis suggests that the global climate change will have a profound effect on the future distribution of severe aridity in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate use of precipitation can be considered as one of the best options to decrease the amount of underground water extraction for agriculture in arid and semi-arid areas such as northeast of Iran. For this reason, characteristics of the growing season such as onset, cessation, and length of the growing period should be analyzed. In this paper, we have calculated growing season characteristics of five locations in northeast of Iran using 45 years historical daily weather data and employed four approaches with different calculation methods. As temperature is one of the limiting factors in irrigation-based agriculture, the first approach has been based on this factor. The three remaining approaches were based on joint rainfall and temperature approach, rainfall, evapotranspiration, and temperature approach, and the final approach was based on availability of adequate water in 0.25 m of soil profile. The calculated onset dates using second and third approaches have been based on soil water balance model and relative evapotranspiration rate, and both were evaluated also to find whether the onset is a false start occurrence or not. The results showed that, when temperature was the only limiting factor, Bojnourd station with 197 days showed the longest growing season, however, when precipitation was used along with temperature, longest growing season (124 days) was obtained for Sabzevar station. The third approach which benefits from a water balance model and is similar to rainfed conditions showed the longest growing season with 147 days for Mashhad station. When adequate soil water approach was used, Bojnourd station with 255 days showed the longest growing season. Evaluation of false start of the growing season indicated the lowest probability of false start occurrence for Mashhad compared with other locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the performance of the Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model ( t + 27 h to t + 51 h) in predicting precipitation is discussed. This model is the first, which has been verified over Iran. The spatial resolution of the model is 0.351° and the 24-h forecasts are compared with daily observations. The study concentrates on year 2001 and the precipitation measurements were collected from the data of 2,048 rain gauges in Iran. The accuracy of four different interpolation methods (nearest neighborhood, inverse distance, kriging, and upscaling) was investigated. Using cross-validation, the inverse distance method (IDM) with minimum mean error was applied. Verification results are given in terms of difference fields (mean error = 0.46 mm/day), rank–order correlation coefficients (0.70), as well as accuracy scores (false alarm ratio = 0.50 and probability of detection = 0.60) and skill scores (true skill statistics [TSS] = 0.45) in year 2001. The position of the rain band was only partly captured by the ECMWF model; however, the position of maximum precipitations agrees with the observations well. The results show that the high values of TSS are associated with the large amounts of precipitation (over 25 mm). Slight to moderate precipitation events have been underforecasted by the model (bias < 1) and it leads to a small value of TSS for these thresholds (5–25 mm/day). The ECMWF model has better performance in high and mountainous regions than over flat terrain and in deserts. Comparing TSS over the Alborz and the Zagros Mountains, it is obvious that the ability of the model to predict the convective precipitation events needs some improvement. The amount of daily precipitation has been also slightly overestimated over Iran. From the beginning of January up to 21 March 2001, the ECMWF time series indicates an obvious phase shift of 1 day, although in other months, no phase shift is noticed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding rainfall variability in the arid, rugged landscapes of Iran requires studying the climatology and spatial patterns of daily precipitation. This paper applies geostatistical and other methods to daily precipitation data from 90 stations that are distributed across Iran to calculate daily rainfall concentration and intensity and map their spatial distribution. The results show that daily precipitation tends to be irregular and intense across much of Iran and that a disproportionately large share of the annual rainfall comes from a small number of high intensity to extreme rainfall events. Analysis of daily rainfall concentration confirms that extreme events are widely distributed across the country, with more than 20% of the land area exposed to the risk of extreme rainfall. The areas experiencing the most frequent extreme events are the hot, dry southern coast and the western slopes of the main north–south range, the Zagros Mountains. Even the wettest parts of the country along the Caspian Sea coast derive a significant amount of their rain from high intensity and extreme events. A cross-validation analysis supports the reliability and accuracy of the geostatistical modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determination of chilling and heat requirements is respected in the selection of the suitable cultivars for producers to avoid damages caused by an inadequate winter chilling in a certain area. It also play an important role within a breeding program, when selecting parents to get late or early flowering cultivars. The present study aimed to estimate the chilling and heat requirements of breaking bud dormancy for flowering and vegetative growth in three Iranian almond cultivars in an orchard located in the suburbs of Garmdarreh (32.45°N; 50.91°E; altitude 1960 m). The three almond cultivars had different flowering times, i.e. early: ʻMohebʼ, medium: ʻMamaieʼ and late: ʻRabiʼ. To provide adequate chilling, fourteen-year-old trees were exposed to low temperature treatments (4 ± 1 °C) to simulate 0–1500 h of chilling at 250 h intervals. The cultivars varied in their chilling and heat requirements in terms of chilling hours and growing degree hours, GDH, to achieve bud break for flowering, i.e. 'Moheb' (250 h and 2132 GDH), 'Mamaie' (500 h and 2460 GDH) and 'Rabi' (500 h and 2624 GDH). To achieve bud break for leaf growth, the late-leafing cultivar ('Rabi') required 750 chilling hours and a heat requirement of 3608 GDH. The earlier-leafing cultivars ('Moheb' and 'Mamaie') had lower heat requirements for leaf unfolding. Although 'Rabi' and 'Mamaie' had similar chilling requirements of 500 h, 'Rabi' required almost a week (168 h) of warm weather after chilling to achieve bud break. This implies that spring frost is rarely a problem for 'Rabi' in Iran. 'Moheb' was not suitable because of its low chilling and heat requirements, hence its inability to escape early spring frosts and late winter cold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is necessary to evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics. The purpose of this study is to assess the linkage of vegetation cover and climate fluctuations and distinguish the contribution of climate fluctuations and human activities on vegetation and its vulnerability in Namak Lake basin, Iran. For this purpose, changes in the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) in association with standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were analyzed. The roles of climate fluctuations and human activities on vegetation vulnerability were then assessed in various land use land cover (LULC) classes using the residual analysis and probability of vegetation vulnerability index (PVVI). The EVI and land surface temperature (LST) maps for the period 2001–2019 were obtained from MOD13A2 and MOD11A2 products of MODIS, respectively. The results indicated that vegetation cover was mainly dependent on short-term climatic changes and their correlation decreased with increasing time scale of SPEI. It reflected that short-term water availability was vital for vegetation growth. Also, the sparse vegetation cover was mainly more vulnerable to climate fluctuations. Residual analysis showed that the vegetation dynamics was intensively attributed to the climate fluctuations, so that climate fluctuations affected vegetation cover in 78.94% of the basin, while 15.58% was affected by human activities and 5.48% was affected by both factors. The value of PVVI in the regions affected by climatic change was the highest (55.99); in the regions affected by human activities, it was lower (50.40); and in the regions affected by both factors, it was between the other two numbers (50.94). Therefore, climate fluctuations and human activities were both driving factors affecting vegetation covers over time in Namak Lake basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological modelling, especially in urban catchments, relies heavily on accurate rainfall data collection. Therefore, rainfall estimation and establishing a network of raingauge stations is essential, especially for regions with a limited number of stations. To simulate rainfall, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used in this study based on the six schemes including Lin, WSM3, WSM5, WSM6, WDM5, and WDM6. Furthermore, optimal spatial design of raingauge networks has been achieved using geostatistical and deterministic interpolation methods of Radial Basis Function (RBF), Local Polynomial Interpolation (LPI), Co-Kriging (COK), Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Global Polynomial Interpolation (GPI), and Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK). Hence, the error reduction in estimating rainfall on non-station points was considered as an indicator to determine the optimal location of stations. This study was conducted in the Sabzevar urban catchment in northeastern Iran, which faces significant flood damages in a few raingauge stations. Initially, the 24-h rainfall data on the five events (from winter to spring 2019 ~ 2020), covering all types of rainfall associated with the seasons, were selected for analysis. The results revealed that among the WRF model schemes, the Lin was chosen as the most desirable scheme to simulate the rainfall in the catchment. A positive verification criterion result between 0.65 and 1 also shows that rainfall values can be estimated efficiently by this scheme over a distance of 18.85 km from the observational raingauge station. Furthermore, based on the interpolation results, the RBF method with the highest R2 (98%) was the most accurate method for the optimal location of the stations in non-station points, i.e., the WRF model outputs with observational stations. Overally, it can be concluded that using the WRF meteorological model combined with the RBF interpolation method could be appropriate for simulating the rainfall, designing the raingauge stations, and forecasting highly accurate 24-h rainfall, especially for the urban catchment without stations. The proposed approach used in this study is also recommended to develop the optimal design of raingauge networks of non-station points in large catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a key factor in the hydrologic cycle and quantifying ETo for future periods is essential for the efficient management of water resources. The objective of this research was to project the possible changes in ETo in future periods in Iran. For this purpose, observed climate data in 40 stations across Iran were collected from 1984 to 2014 and ETo was calculated using these data and the FAO56–PM method. A multi-model ensemble of 27 CMIP6 models under two scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, for the periods 2031–2060 and 2061–2090, was used. A linear regression (LR) model was applied for downscaling and bias correction of CMIP6 temperature using the observed temperature data. The output of the LR model was entered into an artificial neural network (ANN) model with an optimized structure, trained by the observed temperature and the calculated ETo, to project the future ETo based on the downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP6 future temperature. Results showed that ETo will increase in both 2031–2060 and 2061–2090 periods under SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, although the rate of increment was higher under SSP5-8.5 in all stations. Considering all stations, the average of ETo changes was ~ 0.9 mm/day for 2061–2090 under SSP5-8.5. It was found that the ETo rising rate was higher in arid environments, and therefore, shifting to drier conditions with higher water demands will be expectable in such climates in the future. This could cause severe water crises in these environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction of response values is a primary goal in many applications. The standard approach to this problem is kriging which is essentially a linear prediction using optimal least squares interpolation of the random field. However, the optimal predictor is not necessarily a linear one unless the geostatistical data support the Gaussian model. As data often exhibit non-normality, some of the most effective spatial processes are reviewed in the current study. The usefulness of the presented models is demonstrated based on the prediction of rainfall levels in Fars Province, Iran. The measurements were taken from 100 stations. To assess the predictive performance of the evaluated models, 15 stations were randomly withheld. Subsequently, the predicted values at these locations were evaluated against the measured ones. The results of the study indicated that, comparing to some well-known models, the skew Gaussian model introduced in this article demonstrated a better performance in the prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies depicted that the global gridded hydroclimatic products mostly lack precision and are inconsistent throughout the real-world water cycle. The current study evaluates the efficiency of the eight streamflow datasets (FLDAS, GLDAS 2.1, GLDAS 2.0, ERA5, TERRA, ERA5_Land, MERRA2, and GRUN) in two large-scale watersheds with different climate conditions (Karkhe River basin in Iran and Rio Itapecuru River basin in Brazil). To correct the products via different statistical metrics, two tuning procedures (including scale factors and the network-based Muskingum method) have been used. Based on the results showing the paramount impacts on the correction procedures of the products, GRUN, ERA_land, and GLDAS 2 perform the best accuracy in the Karkhe River basin; however, the worst product in the watershed is GLDAS 2.1. In the Rio Itapecuru River basin, MERRA2 and TERRA have the best and worst performance, respectively. In the first watershed, the KGE and TaylorS in GLDAS 2.1 improved by 0.85 and 0.23 in the case of correction using scale factor, and these statistics also significantly increased using coupled scale factor and Muskingum routing methods by 0.84 and 0.21, respectively. In the second watershed, these statistics increased by 9.16 and 0.56 in the worst case using scale factors; these metrics also levelled up by 9.32 and 0.62 via coupled scale factor and Muskingum routing methods. In addition, it appeared that the corrected products could better simulate the streamflow in terms of oscillation time series and the extreme temporal values of the watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In any given region, climate change can be manifested in the form of various characteristics of climatic elements. In the present study, the frequency of different duration of rainy days was examined to investigate the precipitation variations as a sign of climate change. To this end, gridded precipitation data were used from 1971 through 2016, and days with more than 1 mm of precipitation were considered rainy days. According to the rainy days' frequency, it was revealed that during the study period, 1 to 36 days of duration occurred in the country. The 1-day duration had the highest frequencies and covered the vastest areas, while 36-day duration had the lowest frequencies and covered the minor areas. Accordingly, the 1-day duration played the most significant role in annual precipitation. The proportion of these rainfall events in some country's dry and semi-dry parts was more than 80%. The findings also revealed an increased frequency of short-term, especially 2-day duration, in large parts of the country and a decrease in the long-term duration. The results showed that latitude and longitude had the most significant impact on the frequency distribution of the duration of rainy days. Latitude had a direct effect (excluding the 1-day duration of annual precipitation), and longitude had an inverse effect (except the 1-day duration of annual precipitation) on the precipitation duration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landuse and climate change are the two main dynamics significantly affecting watershed hydrology. Adequate knowledge about how these changes will alter the hydrologic regime provides valuable information for future water resources planning and management. The current study attempts to analyze the joint consequences of these dynamics on the future hydrological response of the Gorganroud watershed in northern Iran. For landuse, the integrated Markov Chain analysis and Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MC-MLPNN) algorithm were used to obtain landuse for 2030 and 2050. For climate, we developed future scenarios based on the downscaled data from MPI-ESM-MR for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate watershed hydrology. We found that (1) from 1986 to 2050, agriculture and rangeland are likely to expand by 18.6% and 10.7% of the total watershed area, respectively, at the expense of forest covers. (2) Temperature and precipitation are expected to increase by 1.3 °C and 2.5 °C and by 31.7% and 27.1% for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) during 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, respectively, compared to the baseline of 1976–1995. (3) We found that the integrated landuse and climate change will likely increase annual evapotranspiration during 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 by 113.9% and 11.4%, lateral flow by 14.6% and 7%, baseflow by 166.7% and 77.2%, surface runoff by 54.2% and 41%, water yield by 50.5% and 35.9%, and streamflow by 48.6% and 32.1% for RCP8.5 compared to the baseline of 1976–1995. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, Vector Autoregressive-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (VAR-GARCH), copula, and copula-GARCH models were used for joint frequency analysis of storms in the Aras river basin in northwestern Iran in period of 1998–2018. The heteroskedasticity in the series was considered using the vector autoregressive model. Two-dimensional copulas were also used for bivariate analysis. After confirming the correlation between the pair variables of storm with one event lag (S1) and storm with no lag (S0), bivariate frequency analysis was performed. In the simulation step, the residual series of the VAR model was extracted and fitted to the GARCH model. Then, the residual series of the GARCH model was modeled using the copula model. Finally, storm with no lag (S0) affected by storm with one event lag (S1) was simulated by VAR-GARCH, copula, and copula-GARCH models. According to the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) and root mean square error (RMSE), the VAR-GARCH model had higher accuracy than copula and copula-GARCH models. The RMSE in the simulation of storm height using the VAR-GARCH model was estimated to be 18% and 11% less than copula and copula-GARCH models, respectively. The VAR-GARCH model provided higher accuracy in the simulations due to the consideration of different lags in the simulations and modeling the variance of the residual series. According to the Taylor diagram, the certainty of all three models in simulating storm height are acceptable. Finally, by two-dimensional analysis of pair variables of storm height and storm duration, typical curve was produced that can estimate the storm duration with different probabilities. In fact, having the storm information that has happened in the present can accurately predict the next storm information. It can be very useful in flood management and the generated curves can be used as a flood warning system in the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is an intangible natural disaster that can occur in any climate. The present study assessed drought vulnerability in Iran based on fuzzy logic and hierarchical analysis and weighted averaging process. Then, the weight and map of different components and values of ORness, GIS-OWA method were used to prepare a set of drought vulnerability maps based on effective drought index (EDI). The study of vulnerable classes in terms of adaptation capacity showed that the northern regions of the country enjoy the highest adaptation capacity. The lowest level of compatibility is related to the cities located in the south of Kerman province, west of Khorasan Razavi province, and Ilam province. As far as the exposure component is concerned, vulnerability extends across the country. Also, cities in the provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan and south of Kerman are in a very vulnerable category regarding the sensitivity component. In other words, according to the type of component, different regions of the country are in the vulnerable category. Also, according to all computational ORness results, drought risk in Sistan-Baluchestan, Kerman, and Khuzestan provinces are in very high vulnerability category. Also, the risk of drought in the western and eastern regions of the country is moderate and high, and only are the central and desert regions of the country and parts of the north-western regions of the country in a state of vulnerability and, accordingly, enjoy lower risk than other parts of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this simulation study was to explore how rice yield for different water supply levels will respond to climate change at a field scale in northern Iran. The CSM-CERES-Rice model was used in combination with downscaled outputs of a General Circulation Model. Three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) and seven irrigation treatments (FI (full irrigation), PRD10, PRD30, PRD60 (partial root drying in different rates), RDI10, RDI30, RDI60 (regulated deficit irrigation in different rates)) were used in this study. Moreover, three adaptation strategies were evaluated to mitigate the vulnerability of yield to climate change. The results showed that irrigated rice yield will decrease for climate change projections for 2026–2047, but the reduction was insignificant for all RCPs. Our findings confirm the hypothesis that adaptations can significantly increase the irrigated rice yield under climate change. Shifting transplanting date 2 weeks earlier with FI, RDI10, PRD10, RDI30, and PRD30 showed a higher average yield between 4.67 and 5.03 ton/ha relative to RDI60 and PRD60 reference irrigation treatments for all RCPs. Shifting nitrogen fertilizer application date 1 week earlier under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 and 2 weeks earlier under RCP4.5 with FI resulted in the highest yield ranging from 3.13 and 4.33 ton/ha. By adjusting the amount of nitrogen fertilizer applied, the highest yield was obtained for 2.5 times the application of the current application amount with FI for all RCPs. The evaluation of these adaptation scenarios suggests that shifting transplanting date is the best strategy compared to the other two adaptations, which resulted in a higher yield with the same amount of water for all RCPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow is one of the most important climatic-hydrological variables that plays a vital role in watersheds. This importance is multiplied in Iran, as Iran is a warm country which is dependent on melting snow for the warm seasons. The purpose of this study is to monitor and project snowfall changes in Iran. To this end, we used two sources of data; the daily snow cover data of MODIS Terra satellite with horizontal resolution of 0.01 arc degree during the period of 2000–2019 for snow monitoring, and bias-corrected output of CMIP6 models under SSP scenarios for the period 2021–2100 with horizontal resolution of 0.5 arc degree for projection of snow cover. According to satellite data, spatial snow cover often occurs in the Alborz and Zagros altitudes with a snow boundary of 4000 m above sea level (MASL), and most snow cover occurs in January. The snowfall projection for the future period showed a significant downward trend at level of 0.05, the slope of which is steeper in the cold months of the year (December to February). Caspian Sea, Persian Gulf, and Oman Sea basins show a more decreasing trend of snowfall than other basins. Under a pessimistic scenario of SSP 5–8.5 in the period 2061–2100, snowfall will decrease by 6.8–7.4 cm in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea basins for the high Zagros highlands in January. Due to the reduction of snowfall in the main basins of Iran, integrated watershed management is crucial in the field of water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study aims to examine the economic impact of changing climate variables on two components of food security in Iran: availability and access to food. Wheat and rice, the two most important foods in the country, were considered representatives of food security. A CGE model was developed to achieve the research goals. In this context, a stochastic model based on Monte Carlo simulation was used to provide three scenarios (best, average, and worst) indicating probable changes in climate variables. It is important to model the problem of changing climatic variables for irrigated crops, as groundwater resource depletion and restrictions on extraction from Iranian aquifers reduce planted areas and yields. Therefore, this study applies this model to both rain-fed and irrigated crops, whereas studies in the literature only evaluate rain-fed crops. Food security will face serious challenges as food supplies, and consumption of goods and services are declining in average and worst scenarios, according to findings. Consequently, the negative impact of climate change on food security and people's livelihoods requires a review of the policies implemented within the country. Effective solutions include research and development to introduce drought-tolerant varieties and adopt appropriate strategies to adapt to climate change. Improving the incomes of farmers is one solution to mitigating the impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]