Search

US sales projections for autos and light trucks are being increased due to strong sales during the first quarter of 1999. However, it is believed that future environmental emissions legislation could affect industry profits. Auto stocks are expected to do well in the near term, due in part to low interest rates and strong consumer confidence, which should translate into continued strong sales.

Low interest and unemployment rates, combined with a good stock market and consumer confidence, made 1998 a good sales year for the automobile and truck industry. However, sales are expected to be lower in 1999 due to price competition and deflation as well as slower US economic growth. The industry is also becoming more global with the merger of Daimler-Benz and Chrysler Corp. Investors need to be selective with these stocks in view of the cyclical nature of the industry and current valuations.

Auto and truck industry stocks are expected to provide only moderate earnings during 1995. The slowing growth in earnings and the dropping of share prices suggest that investors be cautious, despite opinions on Wall Street that the expected 1997-1998 downturn in sales will not be serious. The industry is plagued by potential regulation in the wake of controversies such as the possible recall of General Motor's 1973-1987 pickup trucks on account of their gas tanks. Auto leasing, however, could grow substantially through the end of the millenium.

Sales of automobiles and trucks have recovered and demand is outstripping supplies. Meanwhile, stock market earnings for the industry are declining because of an anticipated downturn in the market around 1996-1997. The industry's stocks are expected to perform below average during 1995. Potential investors looking to invest out to 1998-2000 should carefully evaluate individual companies under consideration.

Higher interest rates have had little effect on the automobile market for two reasons: inexpensive loans and leasing practices that make financing less onerous. Nevertheless, investors are showing a preference for less-cyclical stocks. Automakers are not doing well on the legislative front. California is adhering to its 1998 zero-emissions vehicle plan and Pres Clinton appears willing to renege on his commitment to maintain CAFE standards at 27.5 mpg until 2004.

A 20% increase in domestic car and truck sales during Feb 1994 is one sign of continuous recovery in the industry. If the February sales pace continues, 15.5 million cars and trucks will be sold during 1994. Chrysler, Ford and General Motors all plan to boost their production capacity during the year. Leasing is expected to increase to perhaps encompass 50% of all sales by 2000. Potential investors should carefully watch Timeliness ranks of specific companies.

The domestic auto and truck industry is expected to improve in 1994, thanks to a stronger yen and an expanding foreign trade base. The largest automakers, Chrysler Corp, Ford Motor Co and General Motors Corp are in good financial positions to take advantage of the North American Free Trade Agreement. By 1996, automakers should be exporting large numbers of cars to Mexico, taking advantage of restrictions on the Japanese.

A comparative analysis of the company sales and financial details of Paccar Inc. from 1988 to 2003 are illustrated. Projections of the annual total returns, revenues and the assets position of the company for the period 2007-09 are made using value line estimates.