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An ecological biogeographical perspective provides an understanding of the factors that shape the geographical distribution of organisms, their biodiversity and ecological speciation. Focusing on members of the lichen genus Solenopsora, which are strongly linked to a Mediterranean-type climate, we aimed to depict their environmental niches in the Apennine Peninsula. This area represents their ecological optima, as well as the biogeographical centre of distribution. On the basis of occurrences of Solenopsora congeners, we identified the key ecological factors that shape their environmental niches. Applying an ensemble approach, which merges the results of Random Forest, GLM and MaxEnt algorithms, suitability maps were developed. These are mainly influenced by geological substratum, temperature and precipitation. Occurrence of Solenopsora taxa seems to be mainly governed by low variability in diurnal temperature and tolerance to dryness, with precipitation in the range of 0–20 mm in the driest month and a minimum temperature of >5 °C in the coldest month. The sensitivity to diurnal temperature, an important indicator for climate change, suggests that the taxa confined to Mediterranean bioclimatic types (i.e. Solenopsora grisea, S. marina, S. olivacea subsp. olbiensis and S. olivacea subsp. olivacea) might be good indicators of climatic stability. The geological substratum was a strong limiting factor and separated the taxa into three groups: those growing on calcareous, siliceous and ultramafic substrata. Limited co-occurrence of species confined to one of the three categories suggests that the level of niche differentiation is on a microhabitat level. Accounting for ecological requirements, the taxa differ in their tolerance to sub-optimal conditions. The ecological niches of a sister subspecies pair with different reproduction strategies, fertile S. olivacea subsp. olivacea and sorediate S. olivacea subsp. olbiensis, overlap strongly. However, habitat suitability for S. olivacea subsp. olbiensis is greater in areas with higher precipitation in the driest month, whereas S. olivacea subsp. olivacea is more restricted to warmer and drier areas. We also report new regional records for Italy and the first records of S. cesatii in Serbia and Ukraine, and of S. liparina in Serbia.