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Summary: Background: A target to eliminate HIV transmission in England by 2030 was set in early 2019. This study aimed to estimate trends from 2013 to 2019 in HIV prevalence, particularly the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV, by exposure group, ethnicity, gender, age group, and region. These estimates are essential to monitor progress towards elimination. Methods: A Bayesian synthesis of evidence from multiple surveillance, demographic, and survey datasets relevant to HIV in England was used to estimate trends in the number of people living with HIV, the proportion of people unaware of their HIV infection, and the corresponding prevalence of undiagnosed HIV. All estimates were stratified by exposure group, ethnicity, gender, age group (15–34, 35–44, 45–59, or 60–74 years), region (London, or outside of London) and year (2013–19). Findings: The total number of people living with HIV aged 15–74 years in England increased from 83 500 (95% credible interval 80 200–89 600) in 2013 to 92 800 (91 000–95 600) in 2019. The proportion diagnosed steadily increased from 86% (80–90%) to 94% (91–95%) during the same time period, corresponding to a halving in the number of undiagnosed infections from 11 600 (8300–17 700) to 5900 (4400–8700) and in undiagnosed prevalence from 0·29 (0·21–0·44) to 0·14 (0·11–0·21) per 1000 population. Similar steep declines were estimated in all subgroups of gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men and in most subgroups of Black African heterosexuals. The pace of reduction was less pronounced for heterosexuals in other ethnic groups and people who inject drugs, particularly outside London; however, undiagnosed prevalence in these groups has remained very low. Interpretation: The UNAIDS target of diagnosing 90% of people living with HIV by 2020 was reached by 2016 in England, with the country on track to achieve the new target of 95% diagnosed by 2025. Reductions in transmission and undiagnosed prevalence have corresponded to large scale-up of testing in key populations and early diagnosis and treatment. Additional and intensified prevention measures are required to eliminate transmission of HIV among the communities that have experienced slower declines than other subgroups, despite having very low prevalences of HIV. Funding: UK Medical Research Council and Public Health England.

Background: Deaths in HIV-positive people have decreased since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in 1996. Fewer AIDS-related deaths and an ageing cohort have resulted in an increase in the proportion of HIV patients dying from non-AIDS-related disorders. Here we describe mortality and causes of death in people diagnosed with HIV in the HAART era compared with the general population. Methods: In this observational analysis, we linked cohort data collected by Public Health England (PHE) for individuals aged 15 years and older, diagnosed with HIV in England and Wales from 1997 to 2012, to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) national mortality register. Cohort inclusion began at diagnosis with follow-up clinical information collected every year from all 220 National Health Service (NHS) HIV outpatient clinics nationwide. To classify causes of death we used a modified Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe) protocol, which uses death certificate data and clinical markers. We applied Kaplan-Meier analysis for survival curves and mortality rate estimation and Cox regression to establish independent predictors of all-cause mortality, adjusting for sex, infection route, age at diagnosis, region of birth, year of diagnosis, late diagnosis, and history of HAART. We used standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) to make comparisons with the general population. Findings: Between 1997 and 2012, 88 994 people were diagnosed with HIV, contributing 448 839 person-years of follow up. By the end of 2012, 5302 (6%) patients had died (all-cause mortality 118 per 10 000 person-years, 95% CI 115–121). In multivariable analysis, late diagnosis was a strong predictor of death (hazard ratio [HR] 3·50, 95% CI 3·13–3·92). People diagnosed more recently had a lower risk of death (2003–07: HR 0·66, 95% CI 0·62–0·70; 2008–12: HR 0·65, 95% CI 0·60–0·71). Cause of death was determinable for 4808 (91%) of 5302 patients; most deaths (2791 [58%] of 4808) were attributable to AIDS-defining illnesses. Cohort mortality was significantly higher than the general population for all causes (SMR 5·7, 95% CI 5·5–5·8), particularly non-AIDS infections (10·8, 9·8–12·0) and liver disease (3·7, 3·3–4·2). All-cause mortality was highest in the year after diagnosis (SMR 24·3, 95% CI 23·4–25·2). Interpretation: Despite the availability of free treatment and care in the UK, AIDS continues to account for the majority of deaths in HIV-positive people, and mortality remains higher in HIV-positive people than in the general population. These findings highlight the importance of prompt diagnosis, care engagement, and optimum management of comorbidities in reducing mortality in people with HIV. Funding: Public Health England.