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Serbian explanations for the attack on Sarajevo's Markale market range from a mine planted by a third force to tank shells fired by Bosnia's Muslim leader. The UN had claimed that the attack matched the pattern of Serbian shelling of the city, but that there was not enough evidence to blame any party. Western leaders believe that Serbians are protesting their innonce to avoid foreign military intervention such as the threatened Nato air strikes. The Bosnian Serb leader, Radovan Karadzic is communicating with President Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin with evidence that the attack was carried out by the Muslims.

NATO is to decide on action following the mortar bomb attack on a Sarajevo market that killed 68 people. The attack has been blamed on Serbian forces but key European Union members are divided over what action should be taken. General Boutros Boutros-Ghali is calling for NATO to authorise air strikes against artillery positions in and around Sarajevo, and NATO is already commited to air strikes. France is calling for an ultimatum to be delivered to the Serbs and Belgium is in support of air strikes.

Croatian and Bosnian Serbs plan to hold a referendum on Jun 20, 1993, on re-uniting their lands. The Krajina area is at risk of war because Serbs occupy 30% of Croatia. The Serbs and Croats agreed to a truce in Feb 1992, but the territorial dispute was not settled and small-scale fighting continued. The Krajina military command ordered a military alert and curfew in the capital, Knin. Prime Minister Djordje Bjegovic seeks factories and schools rather than a return to Croatia.

Croatia attacked Krajina to gain the land link between north and south. It wants roads through Krajina re-opened and Croation law re-imposed. If the offensive continues it could provoke a full scale war with Serbia. Croatian and Serbian/Montenegrin forces have about 100,000 troops each. The Serbians have more equipment and ammunition, from the former Yugoslav army and arms factories in Serbia. Serbia has the advantage in the air with 500 fixed wing aircraft and 140 helicopters. Croatia possesses most of the naval bases.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) headquarters in Split has difficulty coping with refugees as boundaries change daily due to military advances. There are 82 trucks of food and blankets in the Bosnian mountains, trying to deliver to Sarajevo and Mostar. Some UN supplies have been sent via the Mostar railway line. One hundred UNHCR drivers work daily but if the Mostar road is shelled they have to drive over steep, icy tracks.

British Prime Minister John Major hopes that any Serbian attack on the UN Protection Force in Bosnia would immediately receive UN-authorised retaliation. Some ministers wanted frontiers to be sealed, embassies to be closed and all international communications severed. Plans are being made to enforce the ban on military flights over Bosnia, to establish civilian safe havens and prevent the spread of war to Macedonia and Kosovo.

The example of Northern Ireland should warn the UN troops in Bosnia to be tough with the Serbs so that Muslim Bosnians and Croats do not turn against them. There are five battalion groups of UN forces in Bosnia, the largest of which is the British with 2,400 troops, armed with fixed bayonets. The Serbs, Croats and Muslims lack determination, ingenuity and leadership. The Serbs have conventional weapons and the Croats and Muslims are on the defensive. They have no fixed bayonets.

Serbian militiamen discovered Bosnian Muslims who tried to get through UN-controlled, Serbian-held Krajina to reach Cazin and Bihac on Aug 25, 1992. Many escaped but 40 were imprisoned.Their papers show a deliberate attempt by the Croatian army to send guerrillas across the UN peace-keeping zone to support Muslim forces in western Bosnia. They were trained and armed by the 101st and 111th Brigades of the Croatian army.

Serbs in Croatia have declared independence and formed the Serbian Republic of Krajina. The UN civilian police have no power there. The Territorial Defence Force of Krajina defends it. Krajina 100-dinar notes are similar to those of the Serbian Bosnian Republic. The war front along the Korona river near Karlovac appears almost back to normal. Serbian gunmen guard the road with automatic rifles and bayonets.

Serbian militants attacked a United Nations relief convoy of 12 trucks in Teslic, Bosnia and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) suspended operations. The UN peace plan in Croatia failed when the Yugoslav army refused to withdraw from UN-protected areas. Serbian and Croatian leaders signed the UN peace plan in Jan 1992 but it has been continually transgressed. President Alija Izetbegovic could not leave Sarajevo, which is under Serbian control, to attend EC-sponsored peace talks in Lisbon on May 23 1992. The Serbs ordered total mobilisation in Bosnia. The European Conference on Security and Cooperation (CSCE) will investigate the situation in Kosovo.

The Serbian Communist Party Leader, Slobodan Milosevic, encouraged Serbs living in Kosovo to fight in 1987 by utilising their fears. In 1989 and 1990 he used Serbs from Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. President Franjo Tudjman, Croatian leader, treated the Serbian population badly, paving the way for Mr Milosevic's campaign against the Croats. In autumn 1991 mutinies began among the Serbs of Serbia and UN peacekeeping methods were employed. The Serbian police force is now stronger than the army and Mr Milosevic will expect to annex Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina to Greater Serbia.