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Many Arctic shorebird populations are declining, and quantifying adult survival and the effects of anthropogenic factors is a crucial step toward a better understanding of population dynamics. We used a recently developed, spatially explicit Cormack–Jolly–Seber model in a Bayesian framework to obtain broad-scale estimates of true annual survival rates for 6 species of shorebirds at 9 breeding sites across the North American Arctic in 2010–2014. We tested for effects of environmental and ecological variables, study site, nest fate, and sex on annual survival rates of each species in the spatially explicit framework, which allowed us to distinguish between effects of variables on site fidelity versus true survival. Our spatially explicit analysis produced estimates of true survival rates that were substantially higher than previously published estimates of apparent survival for most species, ranging from S = 0.72 to 0.98 across 5 species. However, survival was lower for the arcticola subspecies of ...

Shorebirds seem to have evolved a number of strategies for adapting to and exploiting the unpredictable and inhospitable Arctic environment. Two such strategies put forth by Holmes and Pitelka suggest that species either conservatively or opportunistically select breeding locations based on local environmental conditions. “Conservative” species were characterized by strong site fidelity and territoriality, consistent population densities, relatively even spacing of individuals, and monogamous mating systems, while “opportunistic” species exhibited opposite traits and were polygamous. Here, we assessed whether 10 shorebird species consistently exhibited these settlement strategies over a 10-year period (2003–2012) near Barrow, Alaska, by comparing annual estimates of site fidelity, territoriality, and population density. Additionally, we determined the relative importance of past and current environmental and social conditions in predicting annual breeding densities of these same species. Data fro...