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Background Stroke is a serious complication after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), yet predictive models are not available. A new risk model for in-hospital stroke after TAVR was developed and used to estimate site-specific performance. Methods We included 97,600 TAVR procedures from 521 sites in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry from July 2014 to June 2017. Association between baseline covariates and in-hospital stroke was estimated by logistic regression. Discrimination was evaluated by C-statistic. Calibration was tested internally via cross-validation. Hierarchical modeling was used to estimate risk-adjusted site-specific performance. Results Median age was 82 years, 44,926 (46.0%) were women, and 1,839 (1.9%) had in-hospital stroke. Covariates associated with stroke (odds ratio) included transapical access (1.44), access excluding transapical and transfemoral (1.77), prior stroke (1.57), prior transient ischemic attack (1.50), preprocedural shock, inotropes or mechanical assist device (1.48), smoking (1.28), porcelain aorta (1.23), peripheral arterial disease (1.21), age per 5 years (1.11), glomerular filtration rate per 5 mL/min (0.97), body surface area per m2 (0.55 male; 0.43 female), and prior aortic valve (0.78) and nonaortic valvular (0.42) procedures. The C-statistic was 0.622. Calibration curves demonstrated agreement between observed and expected stroke rates. Hierarchical modeling showed 10 (1.9%) centers with significantly higher odds ratios for in-hospital stroke than their peers. Conclusions A risk model for in-hospital stroke after TAVR was developed from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry and used to estimate site-specific stroke performance. This model can serve as a valuable resource for quality improvement, clinical decision making, and patient counseling.

Background The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) uses statistical models to create risk-adjusted performance metrics for Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (ACSD) participants. Because of temporal changes in patient characteristics and outcomes, evolution of surgical practice, and additional risk factors available in recent ACSD versions, completely new risk models have been developed. Methods Using July 2011 to June 2014 ACSD data, risk models were developed for operative mortality, stroke, renal failure, prolonged ventilation, mediastinitis/deep sternal wound infection, reoperation, major morbidity or mortality composite, prolonged postoperative length of stay, and short postoperative length of stay among patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (n = 439,092), aortic or mitral valve surgery (n = 150,150), or combined valve plus coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (n = 81,588). Separate models were developed for each procedure and endpoint except mediastinitis/deep sternal wound infection, which was analyzed in a combined model because of its infrequency. A surgeon panel selected predictors by assessing model performance and clinical face validity of full and progressively more parsimonious models. The ACSD data (July 2014 to December 2016) were used to assess model calibration and to compare discrimination with previous STS risk models. Results Calibration in the validation sample was excellent for all models except mediastinitis/deep sternal wound infection, which slightly underestimated risk and will be recalibrated in feedback reports. The c-indices of new models exceeded those of the last published STS models for all populations and endpoints except stroke in valve patients. Conclusions New STS ACSD risk models have generally excellent calibration and discrimination and are well suited for risk adjustment of STS performance metrics.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database (STS CHSD) is the largest congenital and pediatric cardiac surgical clinical data registry in the world. It contains data pertaining to more than 435,000 total operations. The most recent biannual feedback report to participants (Spring 2017, Report of the Twenty-Sixth Harvest) included analysis of data submitted from 127 hospitals in North America. That represents nearly all centers performing pediatric and congenital heart operations in the United States and Canada. As an unparalleled platform for assessment of outcomes and for quality improvement activities in the subspecialty of surgery for pediatric and congenital heart disease, the STS CHSD continues to be a primary data source for clinical investigations and for research and innovations related to quality measurement. In 2016, several major original publications reported analyses of data in the CHSD pertaining to various processes of care, including assessment of variation across centers and associations between specific practices, patient characteristics, and outcomes. Additional publications reported the most recent development, evaluation, and application of metrics for quality measurement and reporting of pediatric and congenital heart operation outcomes and center level performance. Use of the STS CHSD for outcomes research and for quality measurement continues to expand as database participation has grown to include nearly all centers in North America, and the available wealth of data in the database continues to grow. This article reviews outcomes research and quality improvement articles published in 2016 that are based on STS CHSD data.

Established in 1989, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database is one of the most comprehensive clinical data registries in health care. It is widely regarded as the gold standard for benchmarking risk-adjusted outcomes in cardiac surgery and is the foundation for all quality measurement and improvement activities of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. This is the second in a series of annual reports that summarizes current aggregate national outcomes in cardiac surgery and reviews database-related activities in the areas of quality measurement and performance improvement during the past year.

The art and science of outcomes analysis, quality improvement, and patient safety continue to evolve, and cardiothoracic surgery leads many of these advances. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) National Database is one of the principal reasons for this leadership role, as it provides a platform for the generation of knowledge in all of these domains. Understanding these topics is a professional responsibility of all cardiothoracic surgeons. Therefore, beginning in January 2016, The Annals of Thoracic Surgery began publishing a monthly series of scholarly articles on outcomes analysis, quality improvement, and patient safety. This article provides a summary of the status of the STS National Database as of October 2016 and summarizes the articles about the STS National Database that appeared in The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2016 series, "Outcomes Analysis, Quality Improvement, and Patient Safety."

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database has grown to more than 500,000 case records. Clinical research supported by the database is increasingly used to advance patient outcomes. This research review from the General Thoracic Surgery Database in 2014 and 2015 discusses 6 recent publications and an ongoing study on longitudinal outcomes in lung cancer surgery from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Task Force for Linked Registries and Longitudinal Follow-up. A lack of database variables specific for certain uncommon procedures limits the ability to study these operations; inclusion of clinical descriptors for selected infrequent but clinically important thoracic disorders is suggested.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database (STS CHSD) is the largest congenital and pediatric cardiac surgical clinical data registry in the world. With more than 400,000 total operations from nearly all centers performing pediatric and congenital heart operations in North America, the STS CHSD is an unparalleled platform for clinical investigation, outcomes research, and quality improvement activities in this subspecialty. In 2015, several major original publications reported analyses of data in the CHSD pertaining to specific diagnostic and procedural groups, age-defined cohorts, or the entire population of patients in the database. Additional publications reported the most recent development, evaluation, and application of metrics for quality measurement and reporting of pediatric and congenital heart operation outcomes. This use of the STS CHSD for outcomes research and for quality measurement continues to expand as database participation and the available wealth of data in it continue to grow. This article reviews outcomes research and quality improvement articles published in 2015 based on STS CHSD data.

Background Failure to rescue (FTR) is increasingly recognized as an important quality indicator in surgery. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database was used to develop FTR metrics and a predictive FTR model for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Methods The study included 604,154 patients undergoing isolated CABG at 1,105 centers from January 2010 to January 2014. FTR was defined as death after four complications: stroke, renal failure, reoperation, and prolonged ventilation. FTR was determined for each complication and a composite of the four complications. A statistical model to predict FTR was developed. Results FTR rates were 22.3% for renal failure, 16.4% for stroke, 12.4% for reoperation, 12.1% for prolonged ventilation, and 10.5% for the composite. Mortality increased with multiple complications and with specific combinations of complications. The multivariate risk model for prediction of FTR demonstrated a C index of 0.792 and was well calibrated, with a 1.0% average difference between observed/expected (O/E) FTR rates. With centers grouped into mortality terciles, complication rates increased modestly (11.4% to 15.7%), but FTR rates more than doubled (6.8% to 13.9%) from the lowest to highest terciles. Centers in the lowest complication rate tercile had an FTR O/E of 1.14, whereas centers in the highest complication rate tercile had an FTR O/E of 0.91. Conclusions CABG mortality rates vary directly with FTR, but complication rates have little relation to death. FTR rates derived from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons data can serve as national benchmarks. Predicted FTR rates may facilitate patient counseling, and FTR O/E ratios have promise as valuable quality metrics.

Patients undergoing post infarction ventricular septal defect repair are at high risk for early morbidity and mortality, but little is known about subsequent clinical events. This study uses short-term clinical data from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database linked with Medicare data to examine longer term outcomes in these patients.This was a retrospective review of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database to link with Medicare data all adults (≥65 years) who underwent ventricular septal defect repair after a myocardial infarction between 2008 and 2012. The primary outcome was 1-year mortality. Risk factors for 1-year survival were modeled using a multivariable Cox regression.Five hundred thirty-seven patients were identified using The Society of Thoracic Surgeons database and Medicare linkage. Median age was 74 years, and 277 patients (52%) were men. One hundred ninety-two patients (36%) were supported preoperatively with an intraaortic balloon pump. Surgical status was emergent or salvage in 138 (26%), and 158 patients (29%) died within 30 days and 207 (39%) within 1 year. Among patients who survived to hospital discharge, 44% were discharged to a facility and 172 (32%) experienced at least 1 all-cause readmission within 1 year. Unadjusted 1-year mortality rates were 13% for elective patients and 69% for emergency status (P.01). On multivariable analysis emergency/salvage status, older age, and concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting were independently associated with worse 1-year survival.These data suggest the greatest mortality risk in this patient population occurs in the first 30 days. Emergency or salvage status strongly predicts 1-year mortality. Optimizing physiologic derangements before operative repair may be considered when possible in this subgroup of patients.

Background The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (ACSD) has been successfully linked to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) Medicare database, thereby facilitating comparative effectiveness research and providing information about long-term follow-up and cost. The present study uses this link to determine contemporary completeness, penetration, and representativeness of the STS ACSD. Methods Using variables common to both STS and CMS databases, STS operations were linked to CMS data for all CMS coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery hospitalizations discharged between 2000 and 2012, inclusive. For each CMS CABG hospitalization, it was determined whether a matching STS record existed. Results Center-level penetration (number of CMS sites with at least one matched STS participant divided by the total number of CMS CABG sites) increased from 45% in 2000 to 90% in 2012. In 2012, 973 of 1,081 CMS CABG sites (90%) were linked to an STS site. Patient-level penetration (number of CMS CABG hospitalizations done at STS sites divided by the total number of CMS CABG hospitalizations) increased from 51% in 2000 to 94% in 2012. In 2012, 71,634 of 76,072 CMS CABG hospitalizations (94%) occurred at an STS site. Completeness of case inclusion at STS sites (number of CMS CABG cases at STS sites linked to STS records divided by the total number of CMS CABG cases at STS sites) increased from 88% in 2000 to 98% in 2012. In 2012, 69,213 of 70,932 CMS CABG hospitalizations at STS sites (98%) were linked to an STS record. Conclusions Linkage of STS and CMS databases demonstrates high and increasing penetration and completeness of the STS database. Linking STS and CMS data facilitates studying long-term outcomes and costs of cardiothoracic surgery.

Background Risk-adjusted mortality (RAM) models are increasingly used to evaluate hospital performance, but the validity of the RAM method has been questioned. Providers are concerned that these methods might not adequately account for the highest levels of risk and that treating high-risk cases will have a negative impact on RAM rankings. Methods Using cases of isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) performed at 1002 sites in the United States participating in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database from 2008 to 2010 (N = 494,955), the STS CABG RAM model performance in high-risk patients was assessed. The ratios of observed to expected (O/E) perioperative mortality were compared among groups of hospitals with varying expected risks. Finally, RAM rates during the overall study period for each site were compared with its performance in a simulated "nightmare year" in which the site's highest risk cases over a 3-year period were concentrated into a 1-year period of exceptional risk. Results The average predicted mortality for center risk groups ranged from 1.46% for the lowest risk quintile to 2.87% for the highest. The O/E ratios for center risk quintiles 1 to 5 during the overall period were 1.01 (95% confidence interval, 0.96% to 1.06%), 1.00 (0.95% to 1.04%), 0.98 (0.94% to 1.03%), 0.97 (0.93% to 1.01%), and 0.80 (0.77% to 0.84%), respectively. The sites' risk-adjusted mortality rates were not increased when the centers' highest risk cases were concentrated into a single "nightmare year." Conclusions Our results show that the current risk-adjusted models accurately estimate CABG mortality and that hospitals accepting more high-risk CABG patients have equal or better outcomes than do those with predominately lower-risk patients.

Containing more than 6 million cumulative operative records and accounting for 90% to 95% of adult cardiac surgery performed in the United States, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database is an invaluable resource for performance assessment, quality improvement, and clinical research. This article reviews the seven major research efforts published in 2016 that utilized the Adult Cardiac Surgery Database. Two studies evaluated national trends in clinical practice, three assessed the effect of several risk factors on postoperative morbidity and mortality, and two developed new models to evaluate quality of care. The findings of these studies have enhanced clinical practice and delineated areas for future quality improvement research.

he initial stimulus for developing The Society of TThoracic Surgeons (STS) National Database came in 1986 when the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) publicly reported hospital mortality using minimally adjusted, non-clinical data. Because of the lack of adequate risk adjustment and questions regarding the accuracy of diagnoses and procedures, cardiothoracic surgeons became very concerned that such data could be misleading. The STS Standards and Ethics Committee released a “Statement of Concern” in 1986, followed by the Society appointing an Ad Hoc Committee on Risk Factors for Coronary Bypass Surgery, which issued a report in 1988 stating

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy (TVT) Registry captures all procedures with Food and Drug Administration-approved transcatheter valve devices performed in the United States, and is mandated as a condition of reimbursement by the Centers for MedicaidMedicare Services.This annual report focuses on patient characteristics, trends, and outcomes of transcatheter aortic and mitral valve catheter-based valve procedures in the United States.We reviewed data for all patients receiving commercially approved devices from 2012 through December 31, 2015, that are entered in the TVT Registry.The 54,782 patients with transcatheter aortic valve replacement demonstrated decreases in expected risk of 30-day operative mortality (STS Predicted Risk of Mortality [PROM]) of 7% to 6% and transcatheter aortic valve replacement PROM (TVT PROM) of 4% to 3% (both p 0.0001) from 2012 to 2015. Observed in-hospital mortality decreased from 5.7% to 2.9%, and 1-year mortality decreased from 25.8% to 21.6%. However, 30-day post-procedure pacemaker insertion increased from 8.8% in 2013 to 12.0% in 2015. The 2,556 patients who underwent transcatheter mitral leaflet clip in 2015 were similar to patients from 2013 to 2014, with hospital mortality of 2% and with mitral regurgitation reduced to grade ≤2 in 87% of patients (p 0.0001). The 349 patients who underwent mitral valve-in-valve and mitral valve-in-ring procedures were high risk, with an STS PROM for mitral valve replacement of 11%. The observed hospital mortality was 7.2%, and 30-day post-procedure mortality was 8.5%.The TVT Registry is an innovative registry that that monitors quality, patient safety and trends for these rapidly evolving new technologies.

Background Long-term evaluation of cardiothoracic surgical outcomes is a major goal of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS). Linking the STS Database to the Social Security Death Master File (SSDMF) allows for the verification of "life status." This study demonstrates the feasibility of linking the STS Database to the SSDMF and examines longitudinal survival after cardiac operations. Methods For all operations in the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database performed in 2008 in patients with an available Social Security Number, the SSDMF was searched for a matching Social Security Number. Survival probabilities at 30 days and 1 year were estimated for nine common operations. Results A Social Security Number was available for 101,188 patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting, 12,336 patients undergoing isolated aortic valve replacement, and 6,085 patients undergoing isolated mitral valve operations. One-year survival for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting was 88.9% (6,529 of 7,344) with all vein grafts, 95.2% (84,696 of 88,966) with a single mammary artery graft, 97.4% (4,422 of 4,540) with bilateral mammary artery grafts, and 95.6% (7,543 of 7,890) with all arterial grafts. One-year survival was 92.4% (11,398 of 12,336) for isolated aortic valve replacement (95.6% [2,109 of 2,206] with mechanical prosthesis and 91.7% [9,289 of 10,130] with biologic prosthesis), 86.5% (2,312 of 2,674) for isolated mitral valve replacement (91.7% [923 of 1,006] with mechanical prosthesis and 83.3% [1,389 of 1,668] with biologic prosthesis), and 96.0% (3,275 of 3,411) for isolated mitral valve repair. Conclusions Successful linkage to the SSDMF has substantially increased the power of the STS Database. These longitudinal survival data from this large multi-institutional study provide reassurance about the durability and long-term benefits of cardiac operations and constitute a contemporary benchmark for survival after cardiac operations.

Although results in valvular heart surgery may be improving, too few cases are available in most centers to quantify changes, especially for uncommon procedural categories. This study examined comprehensively national trends in valve surgery outcomes over the past 15 years.From 1993 through 2007, 623,039 valve procedures were grouped into single aortic (A), mitral (M), and tricuspid (T) operations, along with AM, MT, AT, and AMT multiple valves ± coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Pulmonary valve surgery was excluded. Trends in baseline characteristics were documented, and logistic regression adjusted for differences in patient profiles. Outcomes were expressed as unadjusted operative mortality, adjusted odds ratios for mortality, and a composite of mortality and major complications.Single valves comprised 89% of valve surgery and multiple valves, 11%. Preoperative patient risk profiles worsened over time. Mortality rates were higher for multiple valves, but all mortality rates fell significantly over the 15 years (p0.001). The composite of mortality and major morbidity did not improve, however, largely because of increasing pulmonary/infectious complications. Overall, cardiac etiology accounted for 54% of deaths, and pulmonary/infectious etiologies for 16%. Cardiac etiology of death fell by 16% over time, but pulmonary death and complications increased by 78% and 39%, respectively.Preoperative patient profiles for cardiac valve procedures have worsened over time. Risk-adjusted mortalities have fallen for all valve surgery, but remain higher for multiple valves. The finding of increasing pulmonary deaths and complications suggests that prevention and improved management of pulmonary and infectious complications could be an important focus for quality improvement.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) National Database is the foundation for most of the Society's quality, research, and patient safety activities. Beginning in January 2016 and repeating each year, The Annals of Thoracic Surgery will publish a monthly Database series of scholarly articles on outcomes analysis, quality improvement, and patient safety. Six articles will be directly derived from the STS National Database and will be published every other month: three articles on outcomes and quality (one each from the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database, the STS Congenital Heart Surgery Database, and the STS General Thoracic Surgery Database), and three articles on research (one from each of these three specialty databases). These six articles will alternate with five additional articles on topics related to patient safety. The final article, to be published in December, will provide a summary of the prior 11 manuscripts. This series will allow STS and its Workforces on National Databases, Research Development, and Patient Safety to convey timely information aimed at improving the quality and safety of cardiothoracic surgery.

Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University of Florida, Jacksonville, Florida; Division of Cardiac Surgery Research, Baystate Medical Center, Springfield, Massachussetts; School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle Washington; Department of Surgery, Caritas St. Elizabeth’s Medical Center, Boston, Massachussetts; Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

For sole therapy transmyocardial laser revascularization (TMR), unstable angina has been demonstrated to be a significant independent predictor of operative mortality. The objective of this study was to investigate the preoperative risk profile of patients undergoing TMR plus coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) and to determine the impact of unstable angina on outcomes.Using The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Database from 1998 to 2003, 5,618 patients underwent TMR plus CABG. These patients were compared with 932,715 patients who underwent CABG only operations.The TMR plus CABG patients had a significantly higher incidence of diabetes (50% versus 34%), renal failure (7% versus 5%), peripheral vascular disease (20% versus 16%), reoperative surgery (26% versus 9%), three-vessel coronary artery disease (80% versus 71%), hyperlipidemia (73% versus 62%; p0.001 for all comparisons). The incidence of preoperative unstable angina was similar (46% versus 47%). The unadjusted perioperative mortality was 3.8% for TMR plus CABG patients. When unstable angina patients were removed, the observed mortality for TMR plus CABG was decreased to 2.7%.It is likely that patients who undergo TMR plus CABG have a higher prevalence of diffuse coronary disease based on their preoperative demographics. Despite the increased risk associated with such anatomy, the mortality rate was not significantly increased when TMR was added to CABG in an effort to provide a more complete revascularization. As was noted from the outcomes of sole therapy TMR, in unstable angina patients, TMR plus CABG carries a higher risk, but this risk is not significantly different from that of such patients treated with CABG alone.

niversity of Kentucky Chandler Medical Center, Lexington, Kentucky; Loyola University Medical Center, Maywood, Illinois; niversity of Florida, Jacksonville, Florida; Harefield Hospital, London, United Kingdom; Lahey Clinic, Burlington, Massachusetts; Duke niversity Medical Center, Raleigh, North Carolina; University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and ashington University Medical Center, St. Louis, Missouri

Background American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Guidelines state that patients with an ejection fraction (EF) of 30% or less should not undergo mitral valve replacement for mitral regurgitation (MR). We sought to establish, using a national cardiac surgery database, whether patients with left ventricular dysfunction may safely undergo mitral valve surgery for MR, and if so, which ones. Methods We queried the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) National Database to identify patients who had isolated mitral valve replacement or repair for MR between 1998 and 2001. Mortality and morbidity outcomes were compared by EF category (≤ 30% vs > 30%), and observed mortality compared by EF group, stratified by predicted risk for mortality. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was then used to determine which patient characteristics contributed most to designate the high-risk patient. Results Of the 14,582 patients who had mitral valve surgery, 727 had an EF of 30% or less and 13,855 had an EF of more than 30%. Observed mortality rates were higher for patients with an EF of 30% or less (5.4% vs 3.1%). However, for low-risk to medium-risk patients, mortality rates remained fairly constant across levels of EF. Mortality is notably increased in the high-risk patients (predicted risk > 10%). A classification tree identifies three key characteristics for high risk: age more than 75 years, renal failure, and emergent or salvage procedure. Conclusions When the predicted mortality risk is less than 10%, EF has minimal impact on operative mortality for mitral regurgitation. In contrast to the ACC/AHA Guidelines, our data show that operative risk for mitral valve surgery is not prohibitive for most patients with ventricular dysfunction.

Background Patients with chronic severe angina refractory to medical therapy who cannot be completely revascularized with either percutaneous catheter intervention or coronary artery bypass graft surgery present clinical challenges. Transmyocardial laser revascularization, either as sole therapy or as an adjunct to coronary artery bypass graft surgery, may be appropriate for some of these patients. Although transmyocardial revascularization has consistently been demonstrated as an efficacious means of relieving angina, the mechanism of its effects are still debated, and criteria for the selection of patients for this novel therapy have not been adequately defined. Methods We reviewed the available evidence to allow us to make recommendations for the appropriate therapeutic applications of transmyocardial revascularization following the format of the American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiology guidelines for diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. Our recommendations were classified as class I, IIA, IIB, or III. For each recommendation we defined the level of supporting evidence as A, B, or C. Results We identified class I indications for transmyocardial revascularization as sole therapy and class IIA indications for transmyocardial revascularization as an adjunct to coronary artery bypass graft surgery with levels of evidence A and B, respectively. Conclusions Transmyocardial laser revascularization may be an acceptable form of therapy for selected patients: as sole therapy for a subset of patients with refractory angina and as an adjunct to coronary artery bypass graft surgery for a subset of patients with angina who cannot be completely revascularized surgically.

Background. Although 30day risk-adjusted operative mortality (ROM) has been used for quality assessment, it is not sufficient to describe the outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. Risk-adjusted major morbidity may differentially impact quality of care (as complications occur more frequently than death) and enhance a surgical team’s ability to assess their quality. This study identified the preoperative risk factors associated with several complications and a composite outcome (the presence of any major morbidity or 30-day operative mortality or both). Methods. For CABG procedures, the 1997 to 1999 Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) National Adult Cardiac Surgery Database was used to develop ROM and riskadjusted morbidity (ROMB) models. Risk factors were selected using standard STS univariate screening and multivariate logistic regression approaches. Risk model performance was assessed. Across STS participating sites, the association of observed-to-expected (O/E) ratios for ROM and ROMB was evaluated. Results. The 30-day operative death and major complication rates for STS CABG procedures were 3.05% and 13.40%, respectively (503,478 CABG procedures), including stroke (1.63%), renal failure (3.53%), reoperation (5.17%), prolonged ventilation (5.96%), and sternal infection (0.63%). Risk models were developed (c-indexes for stroke [0.72], renal failure [0.76], reoperation [0.64], prolonged ventilation [0.75], sternal infection [0.66], and the composite endpoint [0.71]). Only a slight correlation was found, however, between ROMB and ROM indicators. Conclusions. Used in combination, ROMB and ROM may provide the surgical team with additional information to evaluate the quality of their care as well as valuable insights to allow them to focus on areas for improvement.

When transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) cannot be carried out through transfemoral access, alternative access TAVR is indicated. The purpose of this study was to explore inhospital and 1-year outcomes of patients undergoing alternative access TAVR through the transapical (TA) or transaortic (TAo) techniques in the United States.Clinical records of 4,953 patients undergoing TA (n = 4,085) or TAo (n = 868) TAVR from 2011 to 2014 in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry were linked to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services hospital claims. Inhospital and 1-year clinical outcomes were stratified by operative risk; and the risk-adjusted association between access route and mortality, stroke, and heart failure repeat hospitalization was explored.Mean age for all patients was 82.8 ± 6.8 years. The median STS predicted risk of mortality was significantly higher among patients undergoing TAo (8.8 versus 7.4, p0.001). When compared with TA, TAo was associated with an increased risk of unadjusted 30-day mortality (10.3% versus 8.8%) and 1-year mortality (30.3% versus 25.6%, p = 0.006). There were no significant differences between TAo and TA for inhospital stroke rate (2.2%), major vascular complications (0.3%), and 1-year heart failure rehospitalizations (15.7%). Examination of high-risk and inoperable subgroups showed that 1-year mortality was significantly higher for TAo patients classified as inoperable (p = 0.012).Patients undergoing TAo TAVR are older, more likely female, and have significantly higher STS predicted risk of mortality scores than patients operated on by TA access. There were no risk-adjusted differences between TA and TAo access in mortality, stroke, or readmission rates as long as 1 year after TAVR.

Although increasing age has been associated with greater risk of mortality for patients undergoing mitral valve replacement, it is less clear whether this elevated risk is related to age-related differences in comorbidity or other clinical characteristics.A population of 31,688 patients from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Database undergoing mitral valve replacement either alone or in combination with coronary artery bypass grafting or tricuspid surgical procedures from 1997 to 2000 was examined to assess age-related variation in clinical features, morbidity, and mortality. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the effect of age after adjusting for other known risk factors. A classification tree was used to identify low-risk elderly (or = 75 years) patients.Operative mortality increased four-fold from 4.1% in patients aged less than 50 years up to 17.0% in patients aged 80 years or more. Similarly, major operative complications (stroke, prolonged ventilation, reoperation for bleeding, renal failure, and sternal infection) also increased with age, rising from 13.5% (age50 years) to 35.5% (ageor = 80 years). Multivariable adjustment attenuated the odds of operative mortality, but age remained a significant risk factor. After adjusting for other patient risk factors, age accounted for 13% and 10% of the explainable risk for mortality and morbidity, respectively. Among the elderly, four variables (hemodynamic instability, New York Heart Association class IV, renal failure, and concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting) were identified to distinguish levels of risk, from operative mortality rates exceeding 31% to those with 7.7% mortality.Operative mortality and morbidity rise with increasing age of patients undergoing mitral valve replacement. Although this excess risk is partially a result of increased comorbid burden and other operative factors, age remains an independent powerful risk factor for operative risk for mitral valve replacement. Understanding the relationship of age with other risk factors for mitral valve replacement can help stratify risk, enabling physicians to identify lower risk patients.

Background . There is growing interest in comparing resource, as well as patient outcome metrics among coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) providers, yet few tools exist for adjusting these provider comparisons for patient case-mix. In this study, we aimed to define the magnitude of hospital variability in postoperative length of stay (PLOS) in contemporary practice and to determine the degree to which this variability was accounted for by differences in patient case-mix. We also sought to determine the relationship between hospitals' risk-adjusted PLOS and mortality outcomes. Methods . We analyzed 496,797 isolated CABG procedures performed between January 1997 to January 2001 at 587 US hospitals participating in the Society of Thoracic Surgeon's National Cardiac Database. Logistic and linear regression were used to identify independent preoperative factors affecting a patient's likelihood for early discharge (PLOS ≤5 day), prolonged stay (>14 days), and overall PLOS. Hierarchical models were used to determine the degree to which hospital factors influenced PLOS beyond patient factors. Results . Overall, 53% of CABG patients were discharged within 5 days of CABG, whereas 5% required prolonged (>14 days) stays. More than 25 preoperative patient factors were independently associated with a patients' likelihood for early discharge and prolonged stay (model C index 0.70 and 0.75, respectively). After adjusting for patient factors, however, there remained wide unexplained variability among hospitals in PLOS and limited correlation between these PLOS metrics and hospitals' risk-adjusted mortality results (Spearman correlation coefficient −0.15 and 0.35). Conclusions . Our study provides a method for institutions to receive meaningful risk-adjusted bypass PLOS information. Given the marked variability among hospitals in CABG PLOS, institutions should consider benchmarking metrics of efficiency, as well as patient outcomes.

Background The empirically derived 2014 Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database Mortality Risk Model incorporates adjustment for procedure type and patient-specific factors. The purpose of this report is to describe this model and its application in the assessment of variation in outcomes across centers. Methods All index cardiac operations in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database (January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2013) were eligible for inclusion. Isolated patent ductus arteriosus closures in patients weighing less than or equal to 2.5 kg were excluded, as were centers with more than 10% missing data and patients with missing data for key variables. The model includes the following covariates: primary procedure, age, any prior cardiovascular operation, any noncardiac abnormality, any chromosomal abnormality or syndrome, important preoperative factors (mechanical circulatory support, shock persisting at time of operation, mechanical ventilation, renal failure requiring dialysis or renal dysfunction (or both), and neurological deficit), any other preoperative factor, prematurity (neonates and infants), and weight (neonates and infants). Variation across centers was assessed. Centers for which the 95% confidence interval for the observed-to-expected mortality ratio does not include unity are identified as lower-performing or higher-performing programs with respect to operative mortality. Results Included were 52,224 operations from 86 centers. Overall discharge mortality was 3.7% (1,931 of 52,224). Discharge mortality by age category was neonates, 10.1% (1,129 of 11,144); infants, 3.0% (564 of 18,554), children, 0.9% (167 of 18,407), and adults, 1.7% (71 of 4,119). For all patients, 12 of 86 centers (14%) were lower-performing programs, 67 (78%) were not outliers, and 7 (8%) were higher-performing programs. Conclusions The 2014 Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database Mortality Risk Model facilitates description of outcomes (mortality) adjusted for procedural and for patient-level factors. Identification of low-performing and high-performing programs may be useful in facilitating quality improvement efforts.

Whether the introduction of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has affected hospitals' surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) and overall aortic valve replacement (AVR) case volumes and outcomes in the United States is unknown.We utilized data from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) adult cardiac surgery database and the STS/American College of Cardiology (ACC) transcatheter valve therapies registry to examine SAVR and TAVR procedures. Temporal trends in total case volume (SAVR plus TAVR), and observed and risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality rates were assessed among low-risk cases (STS predicted risk of operative mortality4%), intermediate-risk cases (4% to 8%), and high-risk cases (8%). A contemporary control was provided by non-TAVR centers.From 2008 to 2013, the total annual volume of AVR among 246 TAVR-performing hospitals increased from 19,578 to 33,004, with a 22% growth in SAVR volumes; non-TAVR hospital (n = 555) increases were more modest (16,563 to 19,134; 16% growth). Expanded volumes at TAVR hospitals included increased SAVR use in low- and intermediate-risk cases, and TAVR use in high-risk cases. In parallel, in-hospital mortality for all AVR procedures at TAVR sites declined from 3.4% to 2.9% (observed to expected [O:E] ratio 0.75 to 0.58, p0.001); the greatest declines were among intermediate- and high-risk SAVR patients. Owing to reduced SAVR mortality, TAVR centers experienced a significantly greater decline in O:E ratio for high-risk patient in-hospital mortality than non-TAVR centers (TAVR center O:E ratio, 0.81 to 0.61; non-TAVR center O:E ratio, 0.85 to 0.76; p0.001). After approval of TAVR for clinical use, a trend toward higher in-hospital mortality rates and O:E ratios for TAVR procedures was observed at new (but not at established) TAVR centers (O:E ratio, 0.41 to 0.67; p = 0.08).Since the introduction of TAVR, the total volume of AVR procedures, including higher overall use of SAVR, at TAVR sites has significantly increased in the United States. Overall, in-hospital survival of patients undergoing treatment for aortic valve stenosis continues to improve.

Background. In spite of many reports investigating the influence of gender on coronary artery operations, it is still uncertain whether gender is an independent risk factor for operative mortality. A major problem of previous reports has centered around the fact that men and women constitute quite different populations, thereby making direct comparisons difficult. Methods. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database was used to retrospectively examine 344,913 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft operations from 1994 through the most recent data harvest. The operative mortality of male and female patients was compared for a variety of single risk factors and combinations of risk factors. A logistic risk model was used to account for all important patient parameters so that individuals could be stratified into comparable categories allowing for direct comparisons of risk-matched male and female patients. Results. The univariate analysis showed that the 97,153 women carried a significantly higher mortality for each of the risk factors examined. The multivariate analysis and the risk model stratification showed that women had significantly higher mortality as compared to equally matched men in the low- and medium-risk part of the spectrum, but in high-risk patients, there was no difference between male and female mortality. Conclusions. Gender is an independent predictor of operative mortality except for patients in very high-risk categories.

The most common forms of risk adjustment for pediatric and congenital heart surgery used today are based mainly on the estimated risk of mortality of the primary procedure of the operation. The goals of this analysis were to assess the association of patient-specific preoperative factors with mortality and to determine which of these preoperative factors to include in future pediatric and congenital cardiac surgical risk models.All index cardiac operations in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database (STS-CHSD) during 2010 through 2012 were eligible for inclusion. Patients weighing less than 2.5 kg undergoing patent ductus arteriosus closure were excluded. Centers with more than 10% missing data and patients with missing data for discharge mortality or other key variables were excluded. Rates of discharge mortality for patients with or without specific preoperative factors were assessed across age groups and were compared using Fisher's exact test.In all, 25,476 operations were included (overall discharge mortality 3.7%, n=943). The prevalence of common preoperative factors and their associations with discharge mortality were determined. Associations of the following preoperative factors with discharge mortality were all highly significant (p0.0001) for neonates, infants, and children: mechanical circulatory support, renal dysfunction, shock, and mechanical ventilation.Current STS-CHSD risk adjustment is based on estimated risk of mortality of the primary procedure of the operation as well as age, weight, and prematurity. The inclusion of additional patient-specific preoperative factors in risk models for pediatric and congenital cardiac surgery could lead to increased precision in predicting risk of operative mortality and comparison of observed to expected outcomes.

Background . The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database has recently completed gathering patient data from 1990 through 1994. Using information from more than 300,000 patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting in this period, new risk models of operative mortality were developed. Methods . Logistic regression analysis was used to develop a risk model for each calendar year. A standard "training set/test set" approach was used for each model. Results . Five validation techniques were used to evaluate the reliability of the risk models. All models were found to predict operative mortality with good accuracy in this population. Conclusions . The new risk models for isolated coronary artery bypass operations serve as reliable predictors of operative mortality for the most recent harvest of patient data from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database.

Background Recent observational studies show that patients with multivessel coronary disease have a long-term survival advantage with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) compared with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Important nonfatal outcomes may also affect optimal treatment recommendation. Methods CABG was compared with percutaneous catheter intervention by using a composite of death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke. Medicare patients undergoing revascularization for stable multivessel coronary disease from 2004 through 2008 were identified in national registries. Short-term clinical information from the registries was linked to Medicare data to obtain long-term follow-up out to 4 years from the time of the procedure. Propensity scoring with inverse probability weighting was used to adjust for baseline risk factors. Results There were 86,244 CABG and 103,549 PCI patients. The mean age was 74 years, with a median 2.67 years of follow-up. At 4 years, the propensity-adjusted adjusted cumulative incidence of MI was 3.2% in CABG compared with 6.6% in PCI (risk ratio, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.45 to 0.53). At 4 years, the cumulative incidence of stroke was 4.5% in CABG compared with 3.1% in PCI patients (risk ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 1.54). This difference was primarily due to the higher 30-day stroke rate for CABG (1.55% vs 0.37%). For the composite of death, MI, or stroke, the 4-year adjusted cumulative incidence was 21.6% for CABG and 26.7% for PCI (risk ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.78 to 0.83). Conclusions The 4-year composite event rate of death, MI, and stroke favored CABG, whereas the risk of stroke alone favored PCI.

Background The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) is developing a portfolio of composite performance measures for the most commonly performed adult cardiac procedures. This manuscript describes the third composite measure in this series, aortic valve replacement (AVR) combined with coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG). Methods We identified all patients in the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database who underwent AVR + CABG during recent 3-year (July 1, 2009, through June 30, 2012) and 5-year (July 1, 2007, through June 30, 2012) periods. Variables from the STS risk model for AVR + CABG were used to adjust morbidity and mortality outcomes. Evidence for internal mammary artery use in AVR + CABG was examined. We compared composite measures constructed using 3 or 5 years of outcomes with Bayesian credible intervals of 90%, 95%, or 98%. The final STS AVR + CABG composite performance measure is based on 3 years of data and 95% credible intervals. It includes risk-adjusted mortality and morbidity but not internal mammary artery use. Results Median composite score is 91.0% (interquartile range, 89.5% to 92.2%). There were 2.6% (24 of 915) one-star (lower performing) and 6.5% (59 of 915) three-star (higher performing) programs. Morbidity and mortality decrease monotonically as star ratings increase. The percentage of three-star programs increased substantially among programs that performed more than 150 procedures over 3 years compared with those performing 25 to 50 procedures (32.8% versus 1.6 %). Measure reliability was 0.51. Conclusions The STS has developed a composite performance measure for AVR + CABG based on 3-year data samples and 95% credible intervals. This composite measure identified 9.1% of STS participants as having higher or lower than expected performance.

Background Mitral valve (MV) repair is performed with less frequency than MV replacement in older persons, with referral often delayed until symptoms are severe. Surgical practice in this population remains inconsistent in the absence of national MV repair outcomes. The goal of this study was to assess durability and longitudinal outcomes after isolated primary MV repair in patients aged 65 years or more. Methods We linked clinical data from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons adult cardiac surgery database (STS) to longitudinal claims data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Between January 1991 and December 2007, we identified 14,604 isolated nonemergent primary MV repair operations in STS-CMS data. These were longitudinally examined for mortality, mitral reoperation, and readmissions for heart failure, bleeding, and stroke. Predictors of 5-year death after MV repair were identified using Cox proportional hazard modeling. Results The study cohort had a mean age of 73.3 ± 5.5 years, ejection fraction 54.0% ± 12.9%; 55.8% (8,148 of 14,604) were female; and 8.4% (1,233 of 14,604) were non-Caucasian. Operative mortality was 2.59% (378 of 14,604). Mean follow-up was 5.9 ± 3.9 years (range, 1.0 to 18.0). Survival during follow-up was 74.9% (10,934 of 14,604). The number of observed events for mitral reoperation, heart failure, bleeding, and stroke were 552 of 14,604 (3.7%), 2,681 of 14,604 (18.4%), 1,051 of 14,604 (7.2%), and 1,131 of 14,604 (7.7%), respectively. The 10-year Kaplan-Meier event rates for mitral reoperation, heart failure, bleeding, and stroke were 6.2%, 30.1%, 15.3%, and 16.4%, respectively. The 10-year actuarial survival of 57.4% was equivalent to the matched US population. Conclusions Utilizing linked STS and CMS databases, we demonstrate that MV repair is a safe and durable long-term option for older patients. Survival restored to the normal population suggests repair may suppress the longitudinal impact of mitral regurgitation in the elderly and that the practice of delayed referral should be reevaluated. These data provide a contemporary longitudinal benchmark of MV repair outcomes.

The need for accurate risk assessment has become an indispensable element in the practice of cardiac surgery. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database allows subscribing institutions to perform sophisticated patient risk assessment using traditional statistical tools and a newly developed risk model of operative mortality. The database experience with isolated coronary artery bypass grafting has been studied most closely at this point and serves as the basis for this report. The approach to operative risk assessment is presented along with an analysis of important risk factors in the practice of coronary artery surgery from 1980 through 1990. The database contains records of 80,881 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting in numerous institutions from 1980 through 1990. These records were used to conduct a detailed analysis of risk factors associated with coronary operations in this time interval and to present statistical methods used to formulate a risk equation that allows one to predict the probability of operative death. In the course of this decade, there were clearly defined trends showing a statistically significant increase in adverse patient risk factors. The risk model has proven to be a reliable tool for predicting the probability of operative death in an individual patient and may be valuable in both patient counseling and medical decision making. Large multi-institutional databases of this type are key ingredients of modern operative risk assessment. A database containing a broad national experience of this type can represent an aggregate experience that may well approximate a universally accepted standard of care.

Cardiac surgical report cards have historically been mandatory. This paradigm changed when The Society of Thoracic Surgeons recently implemented a voluntary public reporting program based on benchmark analyses from its National Cardiac Database. The primary rationale is to provide transparency and accountability, thus affirming the fundamental ethical right of patient autonomy. Previous studies suggest that public reporting facilitates quality improvement, although other approaches such as confidential feedback of results and regional quality improvement initiatives are also effective. Public reporting has not substantially impacted patient referral patterns or market share. However, this may change with implementation of healthcare reform and with refinement of public reporting formats to enhance consumer interpretability. Finally, the potential unintended adverse consequences of public reporting must be monitored, particularly to assure that hospitals and surgeons remain willing to care for high-risk patients.

Appropriate implementation is essential to create a credible public reporting system. Ideally, data should be obtained from an audited clinical data registry, and structure, process, or outcomes metrics may be reported. Composite measures are increasingly used, as are measures of appropriateness, patient satisfaction, functional status, and health-related quality of life. Classification of provider performance should use statistical criteria appropriate to the policy objectives and to the desired balance of sensitivity and specificity. Public reports should use simplified visual or tabular presentation aids that maximize correct interpretation of numerical data. Because of sample size issues, and to emphasize that cardiac surgery requires team-based care, public reporting should generally be focused at the program rather than individual surgeon level. This may also help to mitigate risk aversion, the avoidance of high-risk patients.

Background The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Medicare database complements The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) database by providing information about long-term outcomes and cost. This study demonstrates the feasibility of linking STS data to CMS data and examines the penetration, completeness, and representativeness of the STS database. Methods Using variables common to both STS and CMS databases, STS operations were linked to CMS data for all CMS coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) hospitalizations discharged between 2000 and 2007, inclusive. For each CMS CABG hospitalization, it was determined whether a matching STS record existed. Results Center-level penetration (number of CMS sites with at least one matched STS participant divided by the total number of CMS CABG sites) increased from 45% to 78%. In 2007, 854 of 1,101 CMS CABG sites (78%) were linked to an STS site. Patient-level penetration (number of CMS CABG hospitalizations done at STS sites divided by the total number of CMS CABG hospitalizations) increased from 51% to 84%. In 2007, 94,409 of 111,967 CMS CABG hospitalizations (84%) were at an STS site. Completeness of case inclusion at STS sites (number of CMS CABG cases at STS sites linked to STS records divided by the total number of CMS CABG cases at STS sites) increased from 88% to 97%. In 2007, 88,857 of 91,363 CMS CABG hospitalizations at STS sites (97%) were linked to an STS record. Conclusions The successful linking of STS and CMS databases demonstrates high and increasing penetration and completeness of the STS database. Linking STS and CMS data will facilitate studying long-term outcomes of cardiothoracic surgery.

From October 1988 through January 1991, 22 consecutive patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome underwent surgical ablation of symptomatic accessory posteroseptal atrioventricular pathways at our institution. As our experience with posteroseptal tracts accumulated, we found that surgical technique was logically dictated by the presence of free wall tracts and the exact location of the posteroseptal tract. Accordingly, we developed an operative approach that involves the selective use of endocardial, epicardial, and cryoablation techniques depending on the anatomic location of accessory tracts. This selective approach allows one to exploit the advantages of each technique while minimizing associated disadvantages. There were 14 men and 8 women with an average age of 25 years (range, 19 to 39 years). All patients had symptomatic tachyarrhythmias caused by accessory atrioventricular pathway(s). Most required several antiarrhythmic medications and 17 (77%) had poor arrhythmia control despite maximal medical therapy. Twelve patients had two accessory pathways and 3 also had dual atrioventricular nodal pathways. There were no early or late deaths. In 2 patients, a delta wave associated with a free wall tract reappeared 3 to 5 days after the initial operation, necessitating a second operation which successfully eliminated the accessory tract. All posteroseptal tracts were successfully eliminated during the initial operation. All patients were relieved of symptoms and are now free of medical therapy. Each patient has undergone a postoperative electrophysiologic study which confirms the absence of posteroseptal accessory conduction. The selective approach has been totally successful in our hands and should prove useful to those interested in optimizing the efficiency of surgical procedures for Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome.

Our purpose was to examine changes in pulmonary hemodynamics for patients with pulmonary contusion. Pulmonary vascular resistance index (PVRI) and shunt fraction were calculated from standard measurements in 25 traumatized patients. The percent of lung volume injured, measured as air-space filling disease (ASF), was quantitated from computed tomograms using a previously described technique. The amount of reactive pulmonary vasoconstriction per unit of injury (PVRI/ASF) identified 3 groups of patients: 5 were reactors (PVRI/ASF greater than 15), 10 were weak-reactors (PVRI/ASF = 5 to 15), and 10 were nonreactors (PVRI/ASF less than 5). In the reactor group PVRI increased as the size of contusion (ASF) increased (r = 0.99). In weak-reactors PVRI also increased with the size of contusion (r = 0.93), but the slope was less pronounced. In both groups shunt fraction did not rise above 0.31. In the nonreactors, PVRI remained normal while shunt fraction increased with the extent of injury (r = 0.95). These results indicate that pulmonary vasoconstriction often occurs after pulmonary contusion. The vasoconstriction most probably represents a compensatory mechanism to limit perfusion of traumatized parenchyma, thereby minimizing increases in shunt fraction. Some patients (nonreactors) not demonstrating this response have unchecked increases in shunt fraction. This insight into the hemodynamic sequelae of pulmonary contusions may enhance our ability to provide optimal care for patients suffering from this injury.

Background Adjustment for case-mix is essential when using observational data to compare surgical techniques or providers. That is most often accomplished through the use of risk models that account for preoperative patient factors that may impact outcomes. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) uses such risk models to create risk-adjusted performance reports for participants in the STS National Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (NCD). Although risk models were initially developed for coronary artery bypass surgery, similar models have now been developed for use with heart valve surgery, particularly as the proportion of such procedures has increased. The last published STS model for isolated valve surgery was based on data from 1994 to 1997 and did not include patients undergoing mitral valve repair. STS has developed new valve surgery models using contemporary data that include both valve repair as well as replacement. Expanding upon existing valve models, the new STS models include several nonfatal complications in addition to mortality. Methods Using STS data from 2002 to 2006, isolated valve surgery risk models were developed for operative mortality, permanent stroke, renal failure, prolonged ventilation (> 24 hours), deep sternal wound infection, reoperation for any reason, a major morbidity or mortality composite endpoint, prolonged postoperative length of stay, and short postoperative length of stay. The study population consisted of adult patients who underwent one of three types of valve surgery: isolated aortic valve replacement (n = 67,292), isolated mitral valve replacement (n = 21,229), or isolated mitral valve repair (n = 21,238). The population was divided into a 60% development sample and a 40% validation sample. After an initial empirical investigation, the three surgery groups were combined into a single logistic regression model with numerous interactions to allow the covariate effects to differ across these groups. Variables were selected based on a combination of automated stepwise selection and expert panel review. Results Unadjusted operative mortality (in-hospital regardless of timing, and 30-day regardless of venue) for all isolated valve procedures was 3.4%, and unadjusted in-hospital morbidity rates ranged from 0.3% for deep sternal wound infection to 11.8% for prolonged ventilation. The number of predictors in each model ranged from 10 covariates in the sternal infection model to 24 covariates in the composite mortality plus morbidity model. Discrimination as measured by the c-index ranged from 0.639 for reoperation to 0.799 for mortality. When patients in the validation sample were grouped into 10 categories based on deciles of predicted risk, the average absolute difference between observed versus predicted events within these groups ranged from 0.06% for deep sternal wound infection to 1.06% for prolonged postoperative stay. Conclusions The new STS risk models for valve surgery include mitral valve repair as well as multiple endpoints other than mortality. Model coefficients are provided and an online risk calculator is publicly available from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons website.

Since 1999, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) has published two risk models that can be used to adjust the results of valve surgery combined with coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG). The most recent was developed from data for patients who had surgery between 1994 and 1997 using operative mortality as the only endpoint. Furthermore, this model did not specifically consider mitral valve repair plus CABG, an increasingly common procedure. Consistent with STS policy of periodically updating and improving its risk models, new models for valve surgery combined with CABG have been developed. These models specifically address both perioperative morbidity and mitral valve repair, and they are based on contemporary data.The final study population consisted of 101,661 procedures, including aortic valve replacement (AVR) plus CABG, mitral valve replacement (MVR) plus CABG, or mitral valve repair (MVRepair) plus CABG between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2006. Model outcomes included operative mortality, stroke, deep sternal wound infection, reoperation, prolonged ventilation, renal failure, composite major morbidity or mortality, prolonged postoperative length of stay, and short postoperative length of stay. Candidate variables were screened for frequency of missing data, and imputation techniques were used where appropriate. Stepwise variable selection was employed, supplemented by advice from an expert panel of cardiac surgeons and biostatisticians. Several variables were forced into models to insure face validity (eg, atrial fibrillation for the permanent stroke model, sex for all models). Based on preliminary analyses of the data, a single model was employed for valve plus CABG, with indicator variables for the specific type of procedure. Interaction terms were included to allow for differential impact of predictor variables depending on procedure type. After validating the model in the 40% validation sample, the development and validation samples were then combined, and the final model coefficients were estimated using the overall 100% combined sample. The final logistic regression model was estimated using generalized estimating equations to account for clustering of patients within institutions.The c-index for mortality prediction for the overall valve plus CABG population was 0.75. Morbidity model c-indices for specific complications (permanent stroke, renal failure, prolonged ventilation24 hours, deep sternal wound infection, reoperation for any reason, major morbidity or mortality composite, and prolonged postoperative length of stay) for the overall group of valve plus CABG procedures ranged from 0.622 to 0.724, and calibration was excellent.New STS risk models have been developed for heart valve surgery combined with CABG. These are the first valve plus CABG models that also include risk prediction for individual major morbidities, composite major morbidity or mortality, and short and prolonged length of stay.

The first version of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (STS NCD) was developed nearly 2 decades ago. Since its inception, the number of participants has grown dramatically, patient acuity has increased, and overall outcomes have consistently improved. To adjust for these and other changes, all STS risk models have undergone periodic revisions. This report provides a detailed description of the 2008 STS risk model for coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG).The study population consisted of 774,881 isolated CABG procedures performed on adult patients aged 20 to 100 years between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2006, at 819 STS NCD participating centers. This cohort was randomly divided into a 60% training (development) sample and a 40% test (validation) sample. The development sample was used to identify predictor variables and estimate model coefficients. The validation sample was used to assess model calibration and discrimination. Model outcomes included operative mortality, renal failure, stroke, reoperation for any cause, prolonged ventilation, deep sternal wound infection, composite major morbidity or mortality, prolonged length of stay (14 days), and short length of stay (6 days and alive). Candidate predictor variables were selected based on their availability in versions 2.35, 2.41, and 2.52.1 of the STS NCD and their presence in (or ability to be mapped to) version 2.61. Potential predictor variables were screened for overall prevalence in the study population, missing data frequency, coding concerns, bivariate relationships with outcomes, and their presence in previous STS or other CABG risk models. Supervised backwards selection was then performed with input from an expert panel of cardiac surgeons and biostatisticians. After successfully validating the fit of the models, the development and validation samples were subsequently combined, and the final regression coefficients were estimated using the overall combined (development plus validation) sample.The c-index for the mortality model was 0.812, and the c-indices for other endpoints ranged from 0.653 for reoperation to 0.793 for renal failure in the validation sample. Plots of observed versus predicted event rates revealed acceptable calibration in the overall population and in numerous subgroups. When patients were grouped into categories of predicted risk, the absolute difference between the observed and expected event rates was less than 1.5% for each endpoint. The final model intercept and coefficients are provided.New STS risk models have been developed for CABG mortality and eight other endpoints. Detailed descriptions of model development and testing are provided, together with the final algorithm. Overall model performance is excellent.

Background Women have historically had greater morbidity and mortality than men after conventional coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) on cardiopulmonary bypass (ONCAB). It is controversial whether off-pump CABG (OPCAB) alters this gender-based disparity. Methods The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Database was reviewed for risk factors and clinical outcomes of 42,477 consecutive, nonemergency, isolated, primary ONCAB or OPCAB cases performed at 63 North American centers that performed more than 100 OPCAB cases between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2005. Odds ratios for adverse events, adjusted for 32 clinical and demographic covariates, were compared by multiple logistic regression models between women and men who had OPCAB versus ONCAB. All analyses were by intention-to-treat; 355 (2.2%) patients converted from OPCAB to ONCAB intraoperatively were included in the OPCAB group. Results Women (n = 11,785) and those treated with OPCAB (n = 16,245) were older and had more comorbidities than men (n = 30,662) and those treated with conventional ONCAB (n = 26,202). Overall, adjusted odds ratios for death and most major complications in both men and women were significantly lower with OPCAB than with ONCAB. Among ONCAB cases only, women had a significantly greater adjusted risk of death, prolonged ventilation, and long length of stay than men. In contrast, among OPCAB cases, women had lower risk of reexploration than men and similar risks for death, myocardial infarction, and prolonged ventilation and hospital stay. Conclusions OPCAB is associated with lower adjusted risk of death and major adverse events than ONCAB. OPCAB benefits both men and women and reduces the gender disparity in clinical outcomes after CABG.