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Pedigree analysis showed that a large proportion of Leber hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) family members who carry a mitochondrial risk variant never lose vision. Mitochondrial haplotype appears to be a major factor influencing the risk of vision loss from LHON. Mitochondrial variants, including m.14484TC and m.11778GA, have been added to gene arrays, and thus many patients and research participants are tested for LHON mutations. Analysis of the UK Biobank and Australian cohort studies found more than 1 in 1,000 people in the general population carry either the m.14484TC or the m.11778GA LHON variant. None of the subset of carriers examined had visual acuity at 20/200 or worse, suggesting a very low penetrance of LHON. Haplogroup analysis of m.14484TC carriers showed a high rate of haplogroup U subclades, previously shown to have low penetrance in pedigrees. Penetrance calculations of the general population are lower than pedigree calculations, most likely because of modifier genetic factors. This Matters Arising Response paper addresses the Watson et al. (2022) Matters Arising paper, published concurrently in The American Journal of Human Genetics.

Summary We conducted an updated epidemiological study of Leber hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) in Australia by using registry data to establish the risk of vision loss among different LHON mutations, sex, age at onset, and mitochondrial haplogroup. We identified 96 genetically unrelated LHON pedigrees, including 56 unpublished pedigrees, and updated 40 previously known pedigrees, comprising 620 affected individuals and 4,948 asymptomatic carriers. The minimum prevalence of vision loss due to LHON in Australia in 2020 was one in 68,403 individuals. Although our data confirm some well-established features of LHON, the overall risk of vision loss among those with a LHON mutation was lower than reported previously—17.5% for males and 5.4% for females. Our findings confirm that women, older adults, and younger children are also at risk. Furthermore, we observed a higher incidence of vision loss in children of affected mothers as well as in children of unaffected women with at least one affected brother. Finally, we confirmed our previous report showing a generational fall in prevalence of vision loss among Australian men. Higher reported rates of vision loss in males with a LHON mutation are not supported by our work and other epidemiologic studies. Accurate knowledge of risk is essential for genetic counseling of individuals with LHON mutations. This knowledge could also inform the detection and validation of potential biomarkers and has implications for clinical trials of treatments aimed at preventing vision loss in LHON because an overestimated risk may lead to an underpowered study or a false claim of efficacy.