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The ability of lineages to disperse long distances over evolutionary timescales may be influenced by the gain or loss of traits adapted to enhance local, ecological dispersal. For example, some species in the southern conifer family Podocarpaceae have fleshy cones that encourage bird dispersal, but it is unknown how this trait has influenced the clade's historical biogeography, or its importance compared with other predictors of dispersal such as the geographic distance between regions. We answer these questions quantitatively by using a dated phylogeny of 197 species of southern conifers (Podocarpaceae and their sister family Araucariaceae) to statistically compare standard, trait-independent biogeography models with new BioGeoBEARS models where an evolving trait can influence dispersal probability, and trait history, biogeographical history, and model parameters are jointly inferred. We validate the method with simulation-inference experiments. Comparing all models, those that include trait-dependent dispersal accrue 87.5% of the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) model weight. Averaged across all models, lineages with nonfleshy cones had a dispersal probability multiplier of 0.49 compared with lineages with fleshy cones. Distance is included as a predictor of dispersal in all credible models (100% model weight). However, models with changing geography earned only 22.0% of the model weight, and models submerging New Caledonia/New Zealand earned only 0.01%. The importance of traits and distance suggests that long-distance dispersal over macroevolutionary timespans should not be thought of as a highly unpredictable chance event. Instead, long-distance dispersal can be modeled, allowing statistical model comparison to quantify support for different hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Founder-event speciation, where a rare jump dispersal event founds a new genetically isolated lineage, has long been considered crucial by many historical biogeographers, but its importance is disputed within the vicariance school. Probabilistic modeling of geographic range evolution creates the potential to test different biogeographical models against data using standard statistical model choice procedures, as long as multiple models are available. I re-implement the Dispersal–Extinction–Cladogenesis (DEC) model of LAGRANGE in the R package BioGeoBEARS, and modify it to create a new model, DEC + J, which adds founder-event speciation, the importance of which is governed by a new free parameter, j. The identifiability of DEC and DEC + J is tested on data sets simulated under a wide range of macroevolutionary models where geography evolves jointly with lineage birth/death events. The results confirm that DEC and DEC + J are identifiable even though these models ignore the fact that molecular phylogenies are missing many cladogenesis and extinction events. The simulations also indicate that DEC will have substantially increased errors in ancestral range estimation and parameter inference when the true model includes + J. DEC and DEC + J are compared on 13 empirical data sets drawn from studies of island clades. Likelihood-ratio tests indicate that all clades reject DEC, and AICc model weights show large to overwhelming support for DEC + J, for the first time verifying the importance of founder-event speciation in island clades via statistical model choice. Under DEC + J, ancestral nodes are usually estimated to have ranges occupying only one island, rather than the widespread ancestors often favored by DEC. These results indicate that the assumptions of historical biogeography models can have large impacts on inference and require testing and comparison with statistical methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]