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Most existing studies on forecasting exchange rates focus on predicting next-period returns. In contrast, this study takes the novel approach of forecasting and trading the longer-term trends (macro-cycles) of exchange rates. It proposes a unique hybrid forecast model consisting of linear regression, multilayer neural network, and combination models embedded with technical trading rules and economic fundamentals to predict the macro-cycles of the selected currencies and investigate the predicative power and market timing ability of the model. The results confirm that the combination model has a significant predictive power and market timing ability, and outperforms the benchmark models in terms of returns. The finding that the government bond yield differentials and CPI differentials are the important factors in exchange rate forecasts further implies that interest rate parity and PPP have strong influence on foreign exchange market participants.

Motivations behind a country&rsquo, s importation of waste are categorized into the pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) and the resource hunting hypothesis (RHH). The importation of wastes can lead to environmental sustainability concerns, requiring governments to intervene when the market fails to reduce the negative externalities by strengthening and implementing environmental regulations. Motivated by China&rsquo, s position within a rapidly growing but environmentally damaging sector of trade, this paper has three goals: (1) to classify the primary hypothesis that governs China&rsquo, s flow of traded wastes, (2) to verify the heterogeneous impact of the pollution paradise motivation and resource demand motivation of waste imports from developed and developing countries, and across industries, (3) to assess the impact of domestic environmental regulations on the motives behind China&rsquo, s waste imports. Using 28 imported waste-varieties from 20 of China&rsquo, s major trade partners across 24 years, findings indicate that the flow of Chinese waste imports is relatively unresponsive under the pollution haven effect. However, the resource hunting effect from developing countries is significantly greater than what originates from developed countries, despite the laws of 2011 and 2017 established to restrict resource hunting activities. These results have important implications for improving the efficiency of China&rsquo, s waste sorting and recycling systems.

The business of international trade has never been identified as zero-sum. Yet, dependence on regional agreements to provide alternate means for countries to overlook shortcomings persists. China&rsquo, s recent rise up the trade value-chain has fostered an assumption that the regional agreement provides various advantages to exports from Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) impact on ASEAN export efficiency into the Chinese market, in pre and post eras. Using a structured gravity approach to estimate potential export pattern at aggregate and industry level, this research indicates that though not consistent across years, the ACFTA offers improvements to ASEAN exports to China. No clear effects of the ACFTA can be extrapolated from the years surrounding the initial signing (Article 8&mdash, 2004). However, following its full enactment (2010), the ACFTA resulted in more sustainable trade from ASEAN members towards China, at both the industry and country levels. While seeing improvements in export efficiency during its era, ACFTA&rsquo, s facilitation of efficiency measures with China came at no expense to other major export destinations.

Systemic risk contagion is a key issue in the banking sector in maintaining financial system stability. This study is among the first few to use three different distance-to-risk measures to empirically assess the domestic interbank linkages and systemic contagion risk of the Chinese banking industry, by using bivariate dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model on data collected from eight prominent Chinese banks for the period 2006–2018. The results show a relatively high correlation among almost all the banks, suggesting an interconnectedness among the banks. We found evidence that the banking system is exposed to significant domestic contagion risks arising from systemic defaults. Given that Chinese markets deliver weak signals of forthcoming stress in banking sectors, new policy intervention is crucial to resolve the hidden stress in the system. The results have important policy implications and will provide scholars and policymakers further insight into the risk contagion originating from interbank networks.

This paper examines the impact of firms&rsquo, sustainability engagement on their stock returns and volatility by employing the EGARCH and FIGARCH models using data from the major financial firms listed in the Chinese stock market. We find evidence of a positive association between sustainability engagement and stock returns, suggesting firms&rsquo, sustainability news release in favour of the market. Although volatility persistence can largely be explained by news flows, the results show that sustainability news release has the significant and largest drop in volatility persistence, followed by popularity in Google search engine and the general news. Sustainability news release is found to affect positively stock return volatility. We also find evidence that market expectation can be driven by the dominant social paradigm when sustainability is included. These findings have important implications for market efficiency and effective portfolio management decisions.